The Austin Birch Report Q3-2022

THE REPORT

Has the pre-construction market entered a new “normal”?

Executive Notes

We know that many of us have begun to assess where we stand after the fluctuations of the past few years – discerning whether the pre-construction market has entered a new “normal,” and determining what that “normal” is. In this volume of The Austin Birch Report, we wanted to take a hard look at the GTA as it stands today, using real-time market data to see what customers are really doing. Right now.

First, we wanted to delve into the declining number of sales in the pre-construction market. This has been a pain point that professionals are contending with now that everyone is finding their footing. Although it is worth noting that there has been a significant 79% decrease in new condo sales from last year’s numbers, these sales are directly proportionate to the reduced product offerings currently in the market.

We have also seen that new condominium presale launch activity has dropped substantially from Q3 2021 - nearly matching numbers from Q3 2019. However, absorption of new projects entering the market has remained consistent, and there has been a 3% decline in unsold inventory year-over-year.

Now, despite the fact that sales numbers are notably low, sales prices are extraordinarily high - with new condo prices reaching a considerable $1,427 PSF. This said, projects priced below $1,400 PSF have accounted for most of the market absorption.

These rising prices are influencing the popularity of certain suite types in turn. From recent sales, we can see that buyer interest is shifting from 2-bedroom to 3-bedroom suites as more individual renters are coming together with others to afford these increasing prices.

Geographically speaking, there has also been a noteworthy shift in purchases for 2022 – with the Hamilton area accounting for an unprecedented 24% share of new condo sales in Q3-2022 for the GTHA. Many have been looking in this region as projects here are priced 30% below the GTA average, however, we anticipate this is only the beginning, considering the $3.6 million in government funding the city has received for infrastructure redevelopment.

Looking into the shifting customer perspective, we have also seen that although some developments are still facing a higher-than-normal volume of rescissions, many are reporting that the rate of dropped deals has decreased considerably. Buyers no longer feel pressured to make hasty decisions in order to ensure their stake on a property and, as such, developers are seeing that most customers are following through on their purchases once they’ve made that decision.

While this is a great bit of news, it is also a double-edged sword. The fact that buyers are experiencing less pressure is also highlighting that new developments aren’t selling themselves. Now, more than ever, developers need the expertise, innovative strategies and connections that professional sales teams bring to the table in order to help convert leads to firm sales.

At Austin Birch, we understand the advantage that our services can bring to bear, and that’s why we’re always striving to innovate and grow – surpassing the needs of our clients and the evolving needs of buyers. Using real-time data to guide our strategies, we ensure that we’re always performing against the numbers. We are continually expanding our team and putting in those extra hours, to provide that crucial connection required to close deals.

So what are you waiting for? Let’s get those sales.

Eric Kuzuian PARTNER

Jamie Sarner PARTNER

By The Numbers

By Neil Hughes

Blackline App

BLACKLINE is the leading sales and marketing software platform that is on a mission to streamline the pre-construction sales process.

BLACKLINE unifies all project information into one location, manages the entire sales process, and elevates the entire buying experience.

The team behind BLACKLINE has a deep understanding of the relationships between developers, sales teams, brokers, and buyers and has been at the forefront of real estate technology for over a decade.

By The Numbers

By Neil Hughes

As prices increase, buyer interest is shifting from 2-bedroom suites for WFH families to 3-bedroom suites that can accommodate multiple individual renters – now coming together to afford rent.

Also, savvy investors are valuing lower PSFs associated with larger units as opposed to smaller units.

By The Numbers

By Neil Hughes

What unit types are seeing the most sales?

Bedroom: 28.92% of sales 1 Bedroom: 26.24% of sales 1+ Den: 25.36% of sales

2

Young families unable to afford homes and professionals now working from home are hungry for space. We see that the demand is there for larger layouts, but customers are making do with the current inventory. The interest in 2-bedrooms is also attributed to the fact that most are now under 700 sq.ft. and are therefore more attractive to buyers who are conscious of end prices.

By The Numbers

By Neil Hughes

What unit type are buyers rescinding on the most?

Bedroom: 21.38% 2 Bedroom: 36.51% 1

1+ Den: 15.13%

It is clear that, since 1-bedrooms typically have the highest price per square foot and often don’t give buyers the option to purchase parking, they are not as attractive to downsizers; or landlords looking to have multiple tenants renting one suite. Also, 1-bedroom products are predominantly attracting investors who have been affected by interest rate hikes and have unsteady confidence in the market.

By The Numbers

By Neil Hughes

Have rescission rates changed since the beginning of the year?

Q1

Q2

Rescinded rate 15.4%

Rescinded rate 24.9%

As interest rates continually rose and the overall economy started to change, buyers started to rethink investing in pre-construction real estate and second-guessing their purchases. It was also evident that some buyers who were approved by their lenders earlier on, came to realize that they no longer qualified for the same loan amount that they had been granted beforehand.

By The Numbers

By Neil Hughes

Has the parking-to-suite ratio changed in new projects?

1:2 2021 GTA Ratio (94.5%) 2022 GTA Ratio (87.2%) 1:1.9

Developers are slowly moving away from offering a proliferation of parking spaces in their new projects as many residents rely on transit or car share programs rather than vehicle ownership. In the core, most projects are already running at a parking efficiency rate as low as 20 – 30% spaces-to-suites.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

WE CONNECT WITH OUR NETWORK OF BROKERS FOR UNIQUE INSIGHTS INTO THE CURRENT MARKET.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

Meetings are running longer

/ Investor projects are running upwards of 2 hours

/ Luxury end-user projects are often 1-3 hours

Converting a lead can now take 2-4 meetings

How have meetings with prospective purchasers changed?

The focus has always been on remaining very attentive to every customer, but now buyers are taking more time to decide/ shop around before committing. With the state of the market, they understand they have options and want to be fully educated about what a development has to offer compared to the competition.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

All of our sources state that they have seen rescission rates lower recentlyan improvement from the statistics highlighted in Q2

Have you found your rescission rates are changing?

According to many sales teams, rescission rates have lowered notably toward the end of this year. This is mainly attributed to the fact that most deals have been done in person at the sales office, where teams can properly advise and address any potential concerns indepth before proceeding. It is also important to note that the buyers who are currently active have more time to think and make decisions which lower the chances of an “impulse” purchase.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

What is attracting buyers in this market? Marketing or Incentives?

Incentives are driving action in almost every project

Although strong marketing is always a necessity, buyers know they have the time to compare what incentives are offered for each project and evaluate them. This affects their decision process in the end. In response, developers are offering aggressive incentives to compete. Sales teams need to educate buyers not just on the intricacies of the incentives but on the benefits of working with reputable developers who offer long-term value.

Word

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

Not having to draw down a mortgage straight away offers a large benefit to potential buyers as it ensures they can stay liquid – exceptionally important in the current climate. This allows buyers to budget accordingly and spread out their payments. Of course, having money in hand from a cashback incentive will always be appealing as well.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

Are buyers trending towards resale or pre-con?

As always, this depends on the location and types of real estate that a buyer is looking for

More customers are choosing to approach resale properties due to the alluring reduction in price in comparison to similar preconstruction offerings. That being said, qualifying for a mortgage and the ability to close on a property presents a challenge today. Therefore, those that recognize the opportunity in pre-construction deposit timelines and future apperception are putting down payments with less risk, waiting for when interest rates turn more in their favour.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

What is the current state of the pre-con market?

The market is stable with slightly lower buyer confidence

We are still seeing some activity, with a good level of sales that match the inventory available. Although buyers, in general, are feeling a little wary, they are enjoying the fact that they can take more time to make decisions instead of feeling pressured into the impulsive, fast-paced purchases that were commonplace just years ago and appreciate the multitude of different incentives that accommodate their needs.

Word On The Street

By Tannaz Taghizadeh

What is the current state of the pre-con market?

At Austin Birch, we know that now more than ever, buyers are looking for teams that can provide them with the information they need, when they need it. This means more phone calls, more one-onone talks, more research and, undeniably, more availability. It is crucial to provide buyers and agents with around-the-clock service –meeting them at any time in order to finalize that sale.

Who We Are

At Austin Birch, we provide Toronto and GTA developers with a comprehensive service that encompasses all aspects of the sales process for their preconstruction projects.

Working closely alongside your team, we offer innovative, custom strategies to help you accomplish your sales goals. 25+

Award-winning projects, including 3 prestigious awards for BILD projects of the year

Years of experience in pre-construction sales.

In new development sales

Projects represented to date.

Suites sold to date

What We Do

Working For You

Our integrated, collaborative sales approach means we’re with you every step of the way, helping to support and guide you through the pre-construction sales process. When you work with Austin Birch, our team is at your service, assessing your individual needs, ensuring results and helping you unlock your project’s full potential.

This is how we Unthink real estate.