Atlantic Voices Vol. 3, No. 10 (October 2013) by Atlantic Treaty Association

ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION

Volume 3 - Issue 10 October 2013

Young Diplomacy Professionals Forum: Riga Workshops In this edition of Atlantic Voices we have an opportunity to look at the results of the

Latvian

Transatlantic

Organizationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

Young Diplomacy Professionals Forum. The Riga workshops hosted in Latvia featured some of the greatest and most innovative young minds from around the world. They came together to discuss the future of diplomacy, security, and international cooperation. They were joined by 60 young professionals from around the globe who shared their views on a better world. The topics ranged from Trans-Atlantic trends, the power of the European Union and the future of Afghanistan. Four authors offer their views on what the lessons of this conference can offer the

Participants at the Riga Conference discussing current issues that face NATO and the EU

Riga Workshop Reports: Transatlantic Shifts: Who Is Calling the Shots?

Andris Banka dis-

cusses who is really in charge and if that role belongs to NATO or another power.

world. There is no denying that nations

European Union: A Global Superpower

around the globe are changing at a rapid pace

cusses the changing role of the European Union and its potential on the world stage.

and it is more important than ever for us to

Eastern Partnerships: From Vilnius to Riga and the Way

plan our future to ensure stability. Each author

Forward

tackles a pressing issue for the future of the

have transformed overtime and how they will continue to transform in the future.

Euro-Atlantic community and provides a vi-

Afghanistan After 2014 and Regional Security

sion for building stronger global relationships. - Brendan Beroff and Bret Matera Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

Bartosz Marcinkowski dis-

Salome Ugrekhelidze takes a look at the Eastern Partnerships and how they

Inga Vaiciakauskaite

offers her analysis on the future of Afghanistan and the very necessary regional security cooperation needed after 2014.

Transatlantic Shifts: Who Is Calling the Shots?

n the first week of September, Riga, Latvia hosted

the participants. Speakers noted China’s rapid develop-

a group of young leaders and bright individuals

ment and leap into the new century as a major force.

from across Europe and beyond, interested in de-

Clear reasons behind Beijing’s strategic importance

bating the most pressing questions of international af-

were identified: stakes with regard to North Korea,

fairs. Given the competitive application process, those

Iran, cyber threats and the environment. Concerns were

who made it to the Latvian capital truly displayed talent

raised about what kind of power China will be in the

and future potential in the realms of politics, security,

future and how its rise will affect the international or-

diplomacy and journalism. This paper is a reflection on

der. Because of its growing weight in international are-

the discussions, disagreements,

na, China seems to display more self-awareness, confi-

hopes and proposals generated

dence and nationalism which in

during the 2013 Young Diplo-

turn can shake-up the status

macy Professionals Forum in

quo of the system and cause

Riga. Based on the internation-

instability in East Asia. Serious

al character of the event, this

questions remain regarding

report can be looked at as a

China’s future behaviour how-

manifesto of the Euro-Atlantic

ever naming Beijing an enemy

youth, their take on the chang-

from the outset would be

ing world around them.

Defense Minister Pabriks Presenting at the Riga Conference (Photo: Latvian Transatlantic Organization)

strategic

One of the workshops, titled Transatlantic Shifts, took on the demanding

counterproductive to NATO’s interests,

groups

pointed out.

task of addressing the issue of shifting positions of major

It is clear that major powers will collide occasion-

powers. The central idea behind this theme was to look

ally. Competition at times will take over cooperation;

at the so called ‘Rise of the Rest’- rapid development of

however, this should not discourage American and Eu-

China, India, Brazil and others - and explain how this

ropean leaders to extend their hand towards the Middle

impacts NATO and the Alliance, and outline specific

Kingdom. While there are differences between Euro-

policies that should be embraced to cope with this. To

Atlantic and Asian worlds, most notably, on military

put some structure on the debate, young professionals

intervention, there are also identifiable spaces for coop-

were divided in 3 groups and asked to answer 3 strategic

eration. China, for example, has provided more peace-

questions. These were as follows:

keepers to UN missions than any of the permanent members of the UN Security Council. This shows that

Identify Three Strategic Actors That NATO Needs to Engage With and Why?

Beijing is interested to work within the current interna-

China represented the clearest consensus among

world’s biggest institutions, set their agenda, and make

tional framework. America and Europe together control the rules. When China tries to integrate into the system

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

it is adapting to American and European value systems, and

Surprisingly, but not without reason, Brazil was also

not the other way around. Engagement with China thus pro-

identified as an actor that NATO needs to seek closer ties

vides more leverage, while confrontation minimizes it.

with. Unlike China which at times tends to shy away from

Welcoming China and not pushing away should be the guid-

taking bigger global responsibility, Brazil is actively seek-

ing principle for NATO, young leaders agreed. In short,

ing it. Lead by Dilma Rousseff, nation’s first female leader,

cautious optimism describes the nature of debate on China

Brazil has opened up for new relations and strategic alli-

and its future position.

ances, and is well positioned to become a hegemon in the

This view echoes conclusions reached at the parallel

Latin American continent. Speakers were aware of Rio’s

Riga Conference where policy makers and experts ad-

internal struggles - high corruption and endemic human security issues; however, Brazil’s po-

dressed the same question. Huang Baifu, Vice Chairman of the Chinese Institute for International Strategic

Participants clearly articulated their vision in favour of an outward looking Trans-Atlantic organization that serves as an ad-hoc security vehicle for various ‘out of area’ involvements.

Studies, for example, noted that Chinese ascendance to power will inevitably affect American and European dominant positions; however, in the long run ‘the rise of Asia will offer more opportunities than challenges.’ In essence, the same understanding was reached at the Young Professionals Forum. India also ranked high on participant’s priority list. Future leaders want the Alliance to make a strategic bet on New Delhi. As the world’s biggest democracy India is a natural ally for, both the United States and Europe. Its strategic value is based on the growing population and economy, relations with troubling Pakistan, and nuclear state status. India represents a stable democracy, secularism and compatible values. Indian and Euro-Atlantic interests cross in the Indian Ocean where New Delhi has substantial maritime security interests. Moreover, India has invested considerable resources in rebuilding Afghanistan and training Afghan security forces. It is interested in stable and politically moderate future for Afghanistan which is also a top priority for policy makers in Brussels and Washington. To put China and India in the same package, young professionals recognized that there is a shift of power taking place from EuroAtlantic to the Asian world. It is the size of economy and population that makes these Asian powerhouses hard to ignore on the world stage. Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

tential seems to be bigger than its problems.

How Do You See the Future Role of NATO? Choose Either an ‘Inward Looking’ or ‘Outward Looking’ Approach and Justify Your Choice Asked to choose between the two approaches, participants clearly articulated their vision in favour of outward looking Trans-Atlantic organization that serves as an ad-hoc security vehicle for various ‘out of area’ involvements. While NATO’s fundamental task is to secure its member states, in a fast changing world the Alliance cannot afford to sit and wait till threats appear at its doorstep. Speakers highlighted the need for new partnerships and engagements. Maritime piracy, cyber threats and terrorism cannot be effectively addressed on individual basis; these require global governance. Young leaders shared the belief that NATO needs a substantial injection of global responsi-

bilities, ranging from fight against human trafficking, combating diseases, and disrupting international drug routes. Groups outlined a vision of the Alliance as a proactive institution that differs from the Cold-War era version. Because threats are transnational in their nature, they have to be addressed with partners. Apart from already noted emerging powers, countries such as South Korea, Sweden, Australia and Japan can be instrumental in assisting NATO’s missions. This partnership can be, both institutional and operational, based on each partner’s unique ‘tool box’. 3

In order to meet today’s challenges participants

pays what. By not meeting self-imposed criteria on

also stressed the need for flexibility of structures which

spending, NATO appears weak on the background of

would allow to project power without long bureaucratic

Asian powers that are investing big to re-build navies

rituals. Crises situations, like the one in Libya, call for

and modernize armies. The task at hand starts internally

rapid deployment of forces. Global mind-set, speed and

- NATO members need to seriously address the so

flexibility is the future of NATO’s operational frame-

called ‘free-rider’ issue, and establish which countries

work, according to discussants in Riga.

are security providers and which simply consume it. Alliances that share burdens equally and are strong from

Imagine you are NATO Secretary-General, speaking at an important conference in Brussels. Give a convincing case of how NATO can still be relevant and effective in an era of austerity:

inside-out can serve as a cornerstone for security in the world. Only then will it be a confident Trans-Atlantic community that can successfully take on the challenges

This undoubtedly was the toughest issue to tackle.

of the 21st century.

Two concepts frequently came-up

The main goal of the event

during the discussions: ‘smart

clearly was to discuss today’s hot

defence’ and ‘pooling and sharing’ of

resources.

Young

topics and come up with specific

leaders

policy recommendations. However,

agreed that there is work to be

a note on the nature and form of the

done with the private sector in

debate might be equally useful.

order to better coordinate the

While heated and polarized at times,

manufacturing of weapons systems. It was recommended that NATO should be more creative

discussions always displayed a great Soldiers defending the European Union (Photo: Autonomous Mind)

and adaptable in its approach- renting and sharing technological capabilities between the members and allies. However, concepts such as ‘smart defence’ cannot serve as hiding blocks for members that simply are not interested in spending money on defence issues. One of the groups even proposed introducing certain punishment methods for those that do not meet the previously agreed 2% of their GDP allocated towards defence.

deal of respect for the opposing view. According to Madeleine Al-

bright, former US Secretary of State and a well-known political figure, the capability to listen is a crucial skill if you want to belong to the diplomatic world. Every participant at the 2013 Young Diplomacy Professionals Forum seemed to possess this skill. While the EuroAtlantic world faces tough economic times and challenges around the world, gathering in Riga proved that its future is still bright and there is plenty to cheer about.

Overall, participants sounded a skeptical note on the current policies, and called the Alliance to think not only in terms of carrots, but also sticks if NATO wants to

About the author

get its financial house in order. The same issue was also

Andris Banka is a doctoral researcher at the University

raised in the Riga Conference by the always vocal Estoni-

of Birmingham/UK where he concentrates on American

an President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, who pointed out

foreign policy with a particular emphasis on the effects of

that ‘if you don’t follow your own rules (on spending)

drone strikes. Previously he has worked in a number of

you will eventually end up in trouble.’ This is not only a

policy centers in Washington, Brussels and The Hague.

matter of internal debate and division of labour of who Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

European Union: A Global Superpower? he first questions focused on by workshop

presence.

participants were whether or not the EU

The EU needs to continue its promotion of hu-

should seek to be a global superpower and if

man rights, democracy, peace, reconciliation, and free

so, what values are the most important for the EU to

market principles. These values should be at the very

promote internally and externally to achieve this status?

heart of European foreign policy. A strong voice in Eu-

The first group, after 30 minutes of deliberation, con-

rope is particularly desired when it comes to the con-

cluded that the European Union should not seek to be a

temporary situation in Egypt or Syria, where fundamen-

superpower in its common interpretation, namely, as a

tal rights are seriously threatened. Advancement of

mechanism of global hegemony. The EUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s potential to

these values should be supported by maintaining high-

shape policy discussion and its capacity to influence the

level humanitarian aid to insecure regions, or by increasing the number of people accept-

international stage are everpresent, however, Europeans are currently occupied with

The group agreed that in the near future the EU needs to take a short break from further expansion

their own internal problems,

ed as asylum-seekers. Fostering free trade within ENP should be considered a cornerstone for pro-

primarily related to the fragile economic situation of the

gress of a more unified Europe.

monetary union. As a result, there is not enough appe-

Towards Deep Integration

tite within the EU to reach superpower status until these

Another issue discussed by the first group was

internal economic issues have been resolved. Therefore,

an institutional shape of the future EU. Participants

the EU must focus on internal reforms that make it

were debating whether further integration will be fruit-

more efficient at an institutional level. Only then will it

ful for Europe and what kinds of changes should be im-

be afforded the opportunity to attempt to strengthen its

plemented in order to foster this process.

international position.

For everyone it was obvious, that a highly-

The changes that are necessary for the EU to

integrated system would be the best solution for the

increase its impact on the global stage must occur gradu-

future of the EU, but to achieve this status several seri-

ally. The EU must focus initially on becoming a regional

ous changes needed to be made in each major EU insti-

power. This means that the EUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s foreign policy must be

tution and in the Treaty of Lisbon at the same time.

oriented primarily towards The European Neighbour-

First, the system of voting within the European

hood Policy (ENP) countries, and the preservation of

Council must be changed. Unanimity should be replaced

strong transatlantic ties. Only after gaining an unwaver-

by qualified majority voting (QMV), and QMV replaced

ing and unified position in North Africa, the Caucasus

by simple majority. Unanimity sometimes is the biggest

region, and the Balkans, may the EU become a potential

obstacle for an implementation of necessary reforms.

global superpower. We must also keep in mind that the

Second, The European Commission needs to be

road towards superpower status requires stability, both

less unwieldy. Commissioners should be chosen on mer-

economically and militarily, as this will allow the EU to

it, not nationality. This type of inherent nepotism that

retain support from the US due to its large military

permeates throughout the EC results in a lack of compe-

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

tent, well-respected experts with credibility in their

twenty-year window.

fields. A more equitable hiring system would significantly

Iceland is most likely to join the EU in the near

increase the institution’s credibility, which would allow

future. With its strong democracy, high economic develop-

the EU to become a more efficient organization with a

ment, European culture and small area and the population,

greater role in the global arena. There is a strong need to

Iceland would not bring any revolutionary changes into the

reduce the number of commissioners – not every state

functioning of the EU. Even Iceland’s bank sector problems

needs to have one.

should not cause major economic risk for the EU from this

Third, the European Parlia-

point of view. Moreover, rich natural

ment needs more legitimacy. One

resources – oil and rare earth materials

way to do this would be to synchro-

could have a positive impact on the

nize voting times (make EP elections

EU’s economy. The plus is that current

for a country at the same time as its

member states will probably not be

national elections). Another way

opposed to Iceland’s accession.

might be to limit its places of work,

most important argument against their

by concentrating all its activities in

accession is the Icelandic financial crisis

one city (Brussels). It would have

and the collapse of their banking sys-

also a very positive financial aspect.

tem, which caused the low financial

Fourth, increase the legitimacy of the High Representative of the

The

credibility of Reykjavík. The other thing Map of EU Member States (Photo: European Union)

there is not much political will to join

Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy – Representatives could be chosen by European Parliament. Im-

is that among Icelandic policy-makers

the EU.

plementation of this procedure could resolve another sig-

A quite different case is Turkey’s bid for accession.

nificant problem of the EU, which is lack of charismatic

Membership of this state would have a huge impact on the

leaders among top European officials.

EU, though that does not mean it is not worth it. In gen-

EU’s Future Expansion

eral, Turkey’s accession would strengthen the EU’s posi-

The task of the second group was to examine where the “borders” of the EU’s further expansion should be aimed towards. The group agreed that in the near future the EU needs to take a short break from further expansion. A higher priority would be to create free trade (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreements) and to sign EU association agreements with its neighbors, such as the Eastern Partnership states. The EU has enough work as it is and needs to focus on the new member countries and strengthening their current members’ economic situation. However, debaters developed a short list of potential “EU candidates” to add within the proposed

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

tion on the global stage. A young, large, and growing Turkish population together with rapid economic growth could be a breath of fresh air for the future EU if the economic slowdown and aging of European societies continue. Turkey would greatly increase EU’s military capability. Ankara could play an important role in enhancing the EU’s voice in the Muslim world. It could bridge the Islamic gap between Islam and the West. Turkey is a very important EU partner when it comes to energy policy issues. Turkey within the EU would mean an extension of access to Azerbaijan’s natural resources, and a possible reduction of dependency on Russian gas. Major threats regarding Turkey’s accession are external in nature: the country borders Iraq, Iran, and Syr6

ia. Furthermore, Ankara is involved in two frozen con-

their own armies. Creation of single European army would

flicts: the Kurdish insurgency and the Northern Cyprus

create enormous spending, which the EU simply cannot af-

issue, where some of the EU member states are directly

ford, especially in the time of crisis. Moreover, a unified

involved.

European army could be monopolized by one state, due to

Because of the latter, Turkey’s accession talks are being blocked (and will be most probably) and delayed by Cyprus. Other difficulties connected with Turkey’s EU ambitions

are:

cultural

and

religious

the inherent biases that routinely favour larger member states in the EU. Second, the EU with its own army could become a

differences

counterweight to US, which could result in a power dispute

(population is almost entirely Muslim), and the human

that could weaken the EU’s position on the international

rights violations that could have been observed in May and

stage in the long term.

June 2013 when anti-government protests were brutally suppressed by the police.

Third, the EU’s defence policy should be continued within the frames of the Common Security and Defence Pol-

The group agreed on the future accession of Balkan

icy, limiting security actions to police trainings and humani-

states. EU membership could bring eventual stability to

tarian missions under UN mandate.

the region and settle longstanding issues. Russia was not

The European Union and Syria

considered as a possible member of the EU in the future, and neither was Belarus.

The last group was working on policy recommendations for what the EU can do to cope with major external and internal threats or emergencies. The first case-study was

Strengthening Transatlantic Ties The second goal of this group was to discuss perspectives of transatlantic relations in the future. One of the issues was whether to rely, in the future, on NATO

war in Syria. Participants tried to elaborate common European stand on recent happenings in this country and seek actions that should be taken by the EU in response to this situation (usage of chemical weapon

and the United States as the most

by Damascus). Above all, the most

important military partners? Par-

important thing is that the EU can

ticipants were wondering if it is

speak with one voice and send a

necessary for the EU to create its

clear message. Only then will the

own military structures.

EU have influence on the political

The answer on these ques-

situation in Syria and be able to take

tions appeared to be simple. There

concrete measures to resolve (or, at

were no doubts that NATO and

least, try to) this problem. Some of

the US should be the primary mili-

them are listed below:

tary partners of the EU in the fu-

First, the EU needs to impose

ture. Defence issues –though advanced integration is generally recommended – should remain the re-

targeted sanctions on regime repreCurrent Crisis in Syria (Photo: RIANovosti)

sponsibility of national governments and NATO. First, creating a single European army would be an unnecessary duplication because nation states already have Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

sentatives or any other actors involved in the use and delivery of weapon of mass

destruction by first imposing measures such as travel bans or the freezing of bank accounts.

Second, the EU should put political pressure on

Fight with corruption as well as with “black” and

Syria (“name and shame”) and seek a referral of the situa-

“gray” market industries and tax evasion needs to be en-

tion in Syria to the International Criminal Court in the

hanced. The EU should cooperate on this field with nation-

Hague.

al and international financial institutions: extremely im-

Third, to increase humanitarian aid, simplify asylum procedures. The EU needs to engage in managing refugee camps what could be field of close and effective

portant is an exchange of information to prevent a state from suffering an unreasonably high debt burden. The EU must overcome its image as a donor and sharpen its criteria for providing financial help. Each coun-

cooperation with Turkey. Fourth, in order to implement policy measures

try in crisis receiving financial support from the EU needs

enlisted above it is highly recommended to cooperate

to be intensively monitored by the European Commission.

with other regional and international bodies (NATO,

Lack of progress could be a reason for withdrawal of such

UN, Arab League) and states neighboring with Syria

support.

(except Iran). Possible military intervention in Syria led

The EU should be more pro-active regarding the

by NATO should be supported by the EU, however send-

support of local markets and industries, which will increase

military

the economic competi-

troops needs to be

tiveness of the EU

decided at the na-

member states. There-

tional level. If need-

fore, financial support

ed, the EU could

could be directed not

safeguard depots of

exclusively to govern-

chemical weapons.

ments but also to pri-

How To Tackle

vate entrepreneurs who

Financial Crisis?

suffer the most from

ing

The

Greek

the crisis. Riot Police dealing with the Greek Crisis (Photo: The Australian)

question was discussed by the third group as a case-study of internal

About the author

threats to the EU. Undoubtedly, it was one of the hardest questions to answer or create policy recommendations for. Particularly strong accent was put on prevention – the Greek case is difficult to resolve but it may be a good lesson for the EU. The EU needs to improve elements of good governance and work on raising economic transparency in

Bartosz Marcinkowski holds a MA in political science from the Jagiellonian University and specializes in Balkan Studies. He has studied also at the University of Zagreb and the University of Split. His main areas of interest are EU policy towards post-Yugoslav states and political cooperation in Central Europe.

EU member states. One of the policy aims should be that no member state spends more than it “earns”, and possible savings need to be kept in advance of any potential crisis in the future.

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

Eastern Partnerships: FromVilnius to Riga and the Way Forward

he purpose of the workshop “Eastern Partner-

and political stability in EaP countries, workshop partici-

ships: From Vilnius to Riga and Way Ahead”,

pants agreed that strong security cooperation of EaP coun-

was to identify the key issues and challenges in

tries with NATO may be considered as a guarantee of their

NATO-Eastern Partnership (EaP) relations by discussing

territorial integrity and political stability. During the discus-

several questions and drafting relevant policy recommen-

sion, workshop participants stated that cooperation with the

dations. During the workshop session, participants an-

Alliance may also avoid the rise of totalitarian governances in

swered questions designed by the moderator and then

these countries (for instance, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine

drafted relevant policy recommendations for improving

and Moldova). Therefore, workshop participants also

NATO-Eastern Partnership relations.

stressed the fact that NATO’s cooperation with Eastern

One of the key issues discussed by the workshop

Partnership states has promoted the successful implementa-

participants was to identify reasons why Eastern Partner-

tion of political, economic and defense reforms in these

ship countries needed security cooperation with the Alli-

countries; hence, NATO significantly influenced the recent

ance, and what lessons have been learnt from their collec-

positive developments and achievements that have been oc-

tive contributions to the International Security Assistance

curring in the Southern Caucasus, Moldova and Ukraine

Force (ISAF).

(signing the Association Agreement between Ukraine and

After intensive discussion, workshop participants

the European Union).

agreed on the following: that the EaP countries need secu-

Additionally, as NATO is a collective security organi-

rity cooperation with NATO, as it increases their negoti-

zation- it may be perceived as a guarantee for international

ating power, and that EaP states need their Western ally

peace and security worldwide. Hence, the Eastern Partner-

and partner (NATO) to counter Russian influence in the

ship has additional incentive to deepen relations with

region since Russia still considers EaP countries to be

NATO. The workshop participants came to the conclusion

within its sphere of influence .

that EaP-NATO should strengthen and improve their rela-

Workshop participants came up with the idea that strengthening ties of the EaP countries with the Alliance

tions in order to: •

close the capability gap by continued participation in ISAF, as well as in other military operations, in order to help Eastern Partnership countries adopt modern training manuals; strengthen professionalism of the military forces; and to reach modern and international standards;

•

move away from the Cold War scenarios and capacities of deployment;

•

develop mobile, highly specialized units; improve military capacity and train military troops in accordance with NATO standards;

•

Develop modern military infrastructure and military bases in accordance with international standards;

and other external partners could be considered a solution to solving “frozen conflicts” in the Black Sea Region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) and Moldova (Transnistria). Additionally, some of the participants stressed that strong EaP cooperation with NATO will promote the status quo to be preserved in the conflict regions. After intensive debates about territorial integrity

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

•

promote international peace and stability in the EaP area; •

•

strengthen rule of law, justice and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms; In addition, EaP countries need strong cooperation with

NATO, as such relations enable EaP to legitimate internal reforms that have to be introduced and implemented within the • states (e.g. reforms in political, economic, governance and defense sectors). The workshop participants concluded that the improvement

NATO-

Eastern Partnership relations

Azerbaijan has a key role in the region for energy security policy because of its wider resources on gas and oil; Azerbaijan can be perceived as an alternative country to import gas and reduce the dependence of the West from the Russian exports; The role of Azerbaijan is vividly important for the Eastern Partnership as it bypasses Russian territory, and contributes to transatlantic energy security (e.g. Baku-Tbilisi -Ceyhan oil pipeline, BakuTbilisi-Ezurum gas pipeline, planned Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) and Trans-Adriatic (TAP) gas pipelines); •

By discussing NATOAzerbaijan energy security isalso advance rule of law and sues, the European Union will highly benefit because it will harhuman rights situations in Azerbaijani flag waving as NATO flies by (Photo: NATO) monize policies between the these countries, because Caspian region and the EU. deepening relations with the Alliance requires achieving high • NATO should be more integrated in the discussions standards and modern approaches to problem-solving. related to energy security and cooperation in energy The fellow participants have also designed several policy infrastructure (pipeline) development and further cooperation will

recommendations for NATO. The Alliance should continue • military trainings and further cooperation with Eastern Partnership countries as such cooperation is a way of stunting the Russian influence. Therefore, such cooperation will also prevent these countries from turning to Russia in the near future. • Moreover, as NATO non-member partners participate in ISAF , it also shapes NATO foreign policy and its enlargement in the future. NATO increases its political influence on the external level due to political and military participation of Eastern

The Alliance should contribute more and become a forum to resolve conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia; NATO should play an important role in strengthening regional stability in the Black Sea region.

•

The Alliance may also participate in the research and the exchange of expertise in frames of energy security infrastructure development.

After intense debates and discussion, workshop participants concluded that it is necessary and vital for NATO to detries as designing a comprehensive policy strategy will promote further positive developments in NATO-EaP relations. While discussing issues concerning energy security for the EaP, workshop participants agreed that: Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

Despite the fact that Azerbaijan already has several bilateral agreements with the Alliance member states on various issues, it is vital to continue this cooperation on the NATO-Azerbaijan level and not only NATO members – Azerbaijan level.

•

partnership countries in ISAF.

sign a comprehensive, united policy strategy towards EaP coun-

NATO can support Azerbaijan in the development process of HUB systems, interconnectors, and LNG terminals between countries to guarantee diversification of supply.

Workshop participants also evaluated the issue of how Ukraine should overcome the status of “buffer” country, 10

and developed some policy recommendations for NATO and Ukraine. Participants have come up with the fact that signing

Non-proliferation of nuclear material/weapons

Disarmament policy (nuclear weapons)

Peacekeeping operations/resolution of conflicts (crisis management)

Cross-border environmental incidents (environmental policy)

Medical and humanitarian aid in conflict zones

Peaceful resolution of “frozen conflicts’’

Law Enforcement cooperation regarding trafficking of human beings, drugs, weapons etc.

Common Standard and Lessons Learned Sessions/ Training for military forces; joint exercises and expertise.

the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine at the upcoming Vilnius Summit in November 2013, will positively influence NATO-Ukraine relations, and also end the status quo of the “buffer state.” Although, workshop participants evaluated the worst case scenario for Ukraine, and recommended that in case Ukraine and the European Union fail to sign the Association Agreement, they should make further efforts to reach a consensus by focusing on small scale cooperation (step-by-step approach) to overcome the existing obstacles and previous errors. Workshop participants recommended NATO to pre-

Workshop participants concluded that NATO should

sent a lot of projects to the Ukrainian society to raise public

increase public awareness and use public diplomacy to support

awareness and strengthen public diplomacy. Similar recom-

the change of public opinion in EaP countries towards NATO.

mendation should be implemented by NATO towards other

One of the policy recommendations for the EaP itself is that

EaP members because the current lack of information about

member countries should actively support each other and co-

the Alliance, its standards, goals and values in EaP countries

operate in many aspects. In this regard, Georgia can share its

is significantly hindering popular support for greater integra-

experience with other EaP members.

tion with NATO.

Moreover, workshop participants came up with the

The final topic that was discussed during the work-

conclusion that Belarus and the Alliance should open more

shop by participants of the Young Diplomacy Professionals

channels for dialogue and continue cooperation based on mu-

Forum was whether NATO, Russia and EaP members have

tual interests. Such common interests may be similar to those

common goals to achieve, and where the cross point for mu-

that are enumerated for Russia above. It has been suggested

tual cooperation stands. As far as NATO and Russia have

that regional security is important for Belarus as well. Overall,

different approaches towards solving territorial integrity

cooperation should be strengthened in areas such as civil emer-

issues, it was difficult to reach agreement about drafting uni-

gency planning and defense reforms.

lateral policy recommendations for Russia and the Alliance.

About the author

It was pointed out that at present, promotion of territorial integration for Russia and NATO is not a similar goal.

Salome Ugrekhelidze holds an LL.B degree from Tbilisi State

However, workshop participants have identified the com-

University and an LL.M degree in Public International Law from

mon goals that Russia, the Alliance, and Eastern Partnership

the University of Nottingham. Currently, she works as Executive

countries may have, and suggested that cooperation between

Director of Georgian non-governmental organization “Public Ad-

NATO, Russia and the EaP is possible in the areas that are

vocacy”. Prior to that, she worked as a lawyer at the Georgian

enumerated below:

Development Research Institute and was a legal intern of Interna-

Terrorism/cyber-terrorism

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

tional Relations Department at the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia. 11

Afghanistan After 2014 and Regional Security he current mandate in Afghanistan is terminat-

During the workshop the following countries and

ing in 2014, after which most foreign forces

their interests regarding Afghanistan were identified: Paki-

will be pulled out. Only a small mission is ex-

stan, Iran, India, Russia, Central Asian countries, China

pected to remain consisting mostly of training and mentor-

and the Gulf states. The participants were asked to first

ing staff. However, the international community remains

discuss each of the mentioned actors’ interests, draft strat-

concerned that Afghan stability post-2014 is at risk, pri-

egy each of the mentioned actors’ interests, draft strategy

marily because of weakness and corruption in the Afghan

recommendations towards those actors and evaluate how

government and insurgent safe havens in neighbouring Pa-

likely it is that those countries will act for the benefit of

kistan. It is clear that in order to

NATO’s goals and Afghanistan’s

ensure the stability and security

security.

of Afghanistan, constructive in-

Starting with Pakistan, the

volvement of regional actors is

participants argued that the main

needed. Currently, the sur-

interests of Pakistani authorities

rounding countries, as well as

are the stabilization of Afghanistan

other major players, have differ-

and the security of the common

ent and often conflicting interests. Prospects for the secure

border. The two countries share Soldiers on patrol in Afghanistan (Photo: NATO)

future of Afghanistan are overshadowed by regional conflicts (especially between India and Pakistan) and rivalries. Tense relations between the USA and Iran, as well as between Russia and the USA, could make the achievement of a common goal – a stable and secure Afghanistan – very difficult indeed.

many ethnic groups, therefore

violent spill-overs and the spread of extremist ideologies constitute a serious threat to Pakistani security. However dangerous the presence of Taliban is in Pakistan, its authorities have been heavily criticised for the lack of effort in fighting extremists. Unwillingness or inability to act has led to the US fighting Afghan militia in Pakistan unilateral-

Therefore, it will be a challenge for the interna-

ly, often resulting in civilian casualties. This situation fur-

tional community and NATO to ensure smooth coopera-

ther threatens the already difficult cooperation between

tion among regional players that would bring stability and

Pakistan and NATO. Moreover, Pakistan’s relations with

prosperity to Afghanistan. NATO’s major task after 2014

neighbouring Afghanistan are deeply affected by its conflict

will be to develop strategies that would help to reconcile

with India. Its goal is to prevent Afghanistan and India from

conflicting interests, and ease regional rivalries. The pur-

forming a strategic relationship, while simultaneously try-

pose of the workshop was to address the aforementioned

ing to remain the most important player in Afghanistan.

challenges, identify the main regional actors and their interests in Afghanistan and draft policy recommendations accordingly.

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

The participants concluded that NATO should continue providing military education and training to both countries. A regional setting expanding the current AfPak

agreement was also being considered, possibly involving

Iran represents another crucial actor in bringing

members such as India and Iran. However, the partici-

stability to Afghanistan. Currently it does not play a sig-

pants agreed that until the Pakistani-Indian conflict is

nificant role, but in the long run Iran remains an im-

resolved there is not much room for manoeuvre. The

portant country. Both countries share a long border and

conclusion was rather bleak: Pakistan is not likely to

some ethnic communities. It is in Iran’s interests to

cooperate for the benefit of keeping Afghanistan stable

protect those communities, especially Shia religious

after 2014.

groups; it also hosts many Afghan refugees and would

In regards to India, the participants identified

like to see them returned to their country.

several important interests India holds in Afghanistan.

The workshop participants also emphasized that

First, India is also interested in containing radicalism,

Iran would like to see the US and NATO leave Afghani-

due to the high threat of terrorism in India itself. Some

stan as soon as possible so that it could gain more power

extremists from Afghanistan have found shelter in Paki-

and influence in the region. There was an agreement

stan, from high threat of terrorism in India itself. Some

that the tension between Iran and the US plays a signifi-

extremists from Afghanistan have found shelter in Paki-

cant negative role in regional dynamics.

stan, from where they are free to plan attacks against India. Indian authorities are also aware of Afghanistan’s huge natural resources potential and are interested in exploring it. As a close-by country, Afghanistan could provide a significant share of energy resources to power India’s growth. The country has already invested heavily in the Afghan mining industry and is therefore interested in keeping Afghanistan stable and seeing return on its financial investments inside the country. Considering mutual cooperation interests, India and Afghanistan have already signed a strategic partnership agreement, which has caused Pakistani outrage.

The conflict between those two countries prevents a deep and meaningful cooperation, which would be enormously beneficial to Afghan security. Iran has connections to both the Afghan government and the Taliban, so it could help in the negotiations between the two sides. This is one of the primary areas in which Iran could positively contribute to peace-making in Afghanistan. The participants believed that Iran could play a middleman between the various conflicting groups. Iran’s provision of humanitarian and development aid to Afghanistan has also been noted. However, unless relations between Iran and the US are improved, there is

Since India has the potential to contribute to-

not much expectation that Iran would play a positive

wards building a stable and secure Afghanistan, the

role in keeping its neighbour stable and peaceful. There-

workshop participants decided that the best policy rec-

fore, the main recommendation relates more to the US

ommendations for NATO consist of upgrading relations

rather than to NATO – easing the tensions between the

with India to a strong partnership. NATO should strive

two rivals which would make cooperation on Afghani-

to encourage India in making investments in Afghani-

stan much more effective.

stan, as well as providing military training and education. Bearing in mind the above mentioned interests, the participants thought that India is very likely to act in a way that is beneficial for NATO’s goals – keeping Afghanistan stable and secure. Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

Regarding Russia and the Central Asian countries, participants pointed out many areas in which NATO and Russia’s interests converge. Russia and some Central Asian countries suffer from a large drug trafficking route through their territory, and are putting a myri13

ad of measures in place to combat this illegal activity.

border. Chinese authorities are worried about the

NATO and Russia are already cooperating on this issue

spread of extremism, which could bring unrest in its

quite effectively. The participants mentioned the geopo-

own remote Muslim-dominated regions. The partici-

litical aspect of the relations between NATO and Rus-

pants thought that the best action was to start a NATO

sia. The latter is keen to see an independent Afghanistan

-Chinese dialogue, which would help to encourage

acting as a buffer zone against NATO enlargement.

more Chinese investment in Afghanistan, as well as a

Moreover, Central Asian states and Russia are worried

stronger cooperation over the common border.

about the spread of extremism, which could spark vio-

The final group of discussed players were the

lent uprisings in oppressive states as well as in the outer

Gulf countries. Some of them have an interest in in-

regions of Russia, such as Chechnya and Ingushetia. An-

creasing trade and investment in Afghanistan. Another

other reason for keeping Afghanistan stable is the possi-

issue was the spread of radical Islamism which is a

ble outlet for trade with Pakistan and India; the whole

huge threat to some of the authoritarian regimes in the

region is interested in the revival of the historic “Silk

region. However, countries like Qatar are willing to

Road” trading route. Some Central Asian countries

negotiate to moderate Taliban figures and are already

share many common ethnic groups, and are therefore

heavily involved in mediating the negotiations between

interested in avoiding ethnic conflict and violent spill-

them and the Afghan government. Given its recent

over.

prominence in the region, Qatar wants to raise its inThe participants decided that the best approach

ternational prestige and to increase its role and visibil-

for NATO towards Russia and the Central Asian states

ity as an important regional player. According to the

is to strengthen cooperation over border security and

workshop participants, NATO should encourage and

anti-narcotics operations. NATO should also provide

support Qatar in mediating the negotiation process. It

military training and education to the weak countries of

was also agreed that the Taliban should be removed

the Central Asian region. When discussing the likeli-

from the US terrorist list, which would help to engage

hood of positive Russian and Central Asian actions to-

a more moderate part of the Taliban.

wards Afghan security, the workshop participants were

The workshop ended with a lively discussion

quite optimistic, as many interests converge and the

over which country was the most likely to cooperate

countries are already cooperative to some extent.

for the benefit of Afghanistan. It was decided that In-

The next discussed player was China, which was

dia, Russia and Central Asian states were most likely

thought to have a lot of potential to work towards fur-

to cooperate, while Pakistan was least likely to con-

thering NATO’s goal of securing Afghanistan. China

tribute positively to Afghan security.

would like to play a larger role in the region in order to balance the power of India, Pakistan, Russia and the US.

About the author

As an economic superpower, China is interested in get-

Inga Vaiciakauskaite holds a BA in Politics from the

ting access to Afghanistan’s natural resources, and has

University of East Anglia and is currently doing an MA in

already invested heavily in this area. Naturally, a stable

International Relations and Diplomacy at Vilnius Univer-

Afghanistan would allow China to see significant invest-

sity. Inga did an internship at the European Commission

ment returns. Moreover, violence in Afghanistan would

in 2011 and is currently working at the Ministry of For-

threaten the Chinese Muslim community just across the

eign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania.

Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 10

ATA Programs From December 9th-11th the 59th General Assembly is to be held in Brussels, Belgium. More information will be coming soon. The event will host a series of prominent speakers and scholars hosting discussions on the most important issues of the day. From November 11-12th the 10th Assembly of the NATOUkraine Civic League will be held in the RUS hotel. The event will consists of a presentation of publications and discussions by prominent political figures. The main topic will be: The Role of Civil Society in Ukraine– NATO relations.

Atlantic Voices is the monthly publication of the Atlantic Treaty Association. It aims to inform the debate on key issues that affect the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, its goals and its future. The work published in Atlantic Voices is written by young professionals and researchers. The Atlantic Treaty Association (ATA) is an international nongovernmental organization based in Brussels working to facilitate global networks and the sharing of knowledge on transatlantic cooperation and security. By convening political, diplomatic and military leaders with academics, media representatives and young professionals, the ATA promotes the values set forth in the North Atlantic Treaty: Democracy, Freedom, Liberty, Peace, Security and Rule of Law. The ATA membership extends to 37 countries from North America to the Caucasus throughout Europe. In 1996, the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) was created to specifially include to the successor generation in our work. Since 1954, the ATA has advanced the public’s knowledge and understanding of the importance of joint efforts to transatlantic security

On 5 November, The ATA will be hosting a cyber security workshop in Brussels, Belgium. The main focus of this event will be a seminar from Brussels based experts on transatlantic cyber affairs. Our experts will examine the legal backing, current technology and its uses, and many other important issues regarding cyber-security. Atlantic Voices is always seeking new material. If you are a young researcher, subject expert or professional and feel you have a valuable contribution to make to the debate, then please get in touch. We are looking for papers, essays, and book reviews on issues of importance to the NATO Alliance. For details of how to submit your work please see our website. Further enquiries can also be directed to the ATA Secretariat at the address listed below. Editors: Brendan Beroff and Bret Matera Images should not be reproduced without permission from sources listed, and remain the sole property of those sources. Unless otherwise stated, all images are the property of NATO.

through its international programs, such as the Central and South Eastern European Security Forum, the Ukraine Dialogue and its Educational Platform. In 2011, the ATA adopted a new set of strategic goals that reflects the constantly evolving dynamics of international cooperation. These goals include:

◊

the establishment of new and competitive programs on international security issues.

◊

the development of research initiatives and security-related events for its members.

◊

the expansion of ATA’s international network of experts to countries in Northern Africa and Asia. The ATA is realizing these goals through new programs, more policy

activism and greater emphasis on joint research initiatives. These programs will also aid in the establishment of a network of international policy experts and professionals engaged in a dialogue with NATO.

The views expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Atlantic Treaty Association, its members, affiliates or staff.

This publication is co co--sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization