In 2007 threats predominantly came from nonfirst ‘Pacific President’. Turkey, on the other hand, is state actors, such as Al-Qaeda, but in 2013 they apmore focused on preventing the civil war in neighpear to originate from stronger states instead, such as bouring Syria from spilling over to its territory. Russia and China. There is also greater diversity beWestern European NATO member states are worried tween the threats the various NATO member states about instability in North-African states, such as face. This potentially undermines NATO solidarity. Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, while East-European states Not helping matters is the fact that NATO’s role in perceive Russia as the biggest threat to their security. the world is still debated. The global financial crisis Turning to the smaller issues, global state cohas not brought NATO any closer to the question operation has repeatedly proven difficult. Progress on whether it should be a regional or global actor. The climate change is obstructed by seemingly irreconcilamore diverse threats also make it more difficult for ble differences between the developed and developing states to anticipate on future military needs. This adds world. The permanent members of the United Naan extra challenge to those states wishing to further tions Security Council also clashed over how to hanreduce military budgets. In dle the Arab Spring and its an increasingly uncertain aftershocks. Superpower coFrom this perspective, a hundred thousand extra dollars world, states have no option operation has been successful for NATO’s War College in Rome may very well be betin some cases. There has ter spent than millions for a few extra Joint Strike Fight- but to maintain a versatile military force. State differbeen strong action on piracy ers. ences between the level of off the Somali coast and the military budget cuts and the US and Russia have cooperatdifference in threats mean individual NATO member ed with regards to the issue of Syria’s chemical weapstates can end up facing threat-capability issues in the ons supply. Yet recent events in Ukraine re-ignited near future. tensions between the two former rivals, marking an Smart defence, the idea of doing more with end to the brief period of détente. less, can be part of the solution. The increase of To summarize, the trend during the global fiNATO interoperability could for example help mainnancial crisis is one towards a state-based multilateral tain collective capabilities. Yet military might is not world in which the specifics of security threats have everything. Recent campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq changed but the level of threats and issues have rehave shown that high capabilities do not always transmained the same. US political, economic and military late into desired outcomes. The lesson may very well hegemony in much of the world continues, but it is be to try and use what capabilities NATO has got in a increasingly questioned by other rising powers, probmore intelligent way. After all, military capacity is lematizing global cooperation. constrained by the capacity of political leaders to use it effectively and efficiently. Russia’s swift invasion of Conclusion the Crimea shows that NATO military might does Military spending figures suggest total NATO little to protect its interests if it is not utilized propermilitary capabilities have not significantly decreased ly. If military capacity goes unused (in the sense of since the global financial crisis. Differences between ineffective deterrence or non-deployment), these remajor European powers have shrunk while the Atlansources may be better redirected to other policy aretic divide (between the US and EU) has widened. The as, such as education or health care. If NATOtotal level of threats NATO faces remained unmember states really seek to make the most out of changed. That means on a NATO-wide level there is their capabilities they must think better about how no need to speak of a threat-capability gap. Yet the they deploy their forces. Both too much (Afghanistan) type of threats have significantly changed.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 4, Issue 4
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