Preventing Space War Forum - Report

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

In the spirit of collaboration, we take this opportunity to acknowledge and celebrate the invaluable contributions of the universities and students who played an integral role in the creation of the Preventing Space War forum and its comprehensive report.

FLINDERS UNIVERSITY

Professor Melissa de Zwart

Professor of Digital Technology, Security, and Governance, College of Business, Government, and Law

Dr Stacey Henderson

Senior Lecturer, College of Business, Government, and Law.

Joel Lisk

Research Associate (Space and Regulation), College of Business, Government, and Law

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY

Taryn Struck

Sr. Program Manager, Interplanetary Initiative

Chantal Bacon

Research Associate, HSD Program

John Shiver Research Assistant

Mariah Maury

Research Assistant

How do we reduce the probability of a cataclysmic space war?

Convene cross-sector, space experts in an open dialogue about the threats of space warfare, to design better strategies for a more peaceful and sustainable use of space.

SUMMARY

BACKGROUND

Space war has been a concern from the mid20th century onwards. Yet the possibility of armed conflict in space – whether a war in space or the significant use of space for enabling war – is rapidly increasing at a time when our global society lacks the tools, language, and imagination to address these pressing issues.

FORUM

On May 17, 2023, Arizona State University (ASU) organized the inaugural Preventing Space War Forum in Washington, DC. The event, supported by ASU’s Interplanetary Initiative and the Center on the Future of War, gathered space experts and stakeholders to share perspectives and develop strategies that can help mitigate space conflict.

The Forum commenced with a keynote address by Lt. Gen. DeAnna M. Burt, Chief Operations Officer for the United States Space Force (USSF). Following the address, three panels, featuring perspectives from academia, the military, and industry, delved into topics such as the consequences and pathways to space conflict, open-source intelligence for space domain awareness, and the social, political, and cultural conceptualization of space ownership and conflict.

Explore Domain Strategies

Academia Industry

Government

KEY DIFFERENTIATOR I METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH

CONVENE

Facilitate open dialogue with space experts from across the globe to explore complex themes relevant to space warfare from multiple angles and perspectives.

DISSEMINATE

Share key insights and strategies derived from this dialog with a broad audience.

COLLABORATE

Spur new connections to act on these insights and advance strategies in new ways.

03 12 13 30

organizing members contributing organizations expert perspectives sectors crossing private, government and academia

OUTPUTS

6K+ global live streams across multiple platforms

02 media stories

01 comprehensive report

BY METRICS

Securing Space

Lt. Gen. DeAnna M. Burt Chief Operations Officer for United States Space Force

THE VIEW FROM THE U.S. SPACE FORCE (USSF)

Lieutenant General DeAnna M. Burt, an esteemed leader in the USSF, delivered a compelling discourse on the pivotal role of space in both our everyday lives and national security. In her address, she shed light on the growing challenges faced by the space domain, emphasizing the mounting congestion and contestation that has become all too prevalent. Notably, she drew attention to the formidable endeavors of China and Russia, who have been fervently advancing their counter-space capabilities, with the explicit aim of preventing the United States from maintaining a competitive edge.

With unwavering determination, the USSF is focused on cultivating a combat-ready force that stands prepared to navigate the complexities of this rapidly evolving arena.

A fundamental aspect of their mission lies in fostering the guardian spirit among their exceptional personnel, instilling within them a deep sense of dedication and responsibility towards safeguarding the interests of our nation. Furthermore, the USSF is committed to forging robust partnerships with other organizations, recognizing the importance of collective efforts in securing shared objectives.

By articulating these key points, Lt Gen DeAnna M. Burt effectively underscored the critical significance of space in our modern world. Her impassioned address served as a call to action, urging us all to recognize the pressing need to protect our interests and ensure the continued freedom of operation in this invaluable domain.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

01. Challenging Space Landscape with Escalated

Adversarial Activity

The current space era faces intensified competition from adversaries adept in space-enabled attacks, ushering in a new realm of challenges.

02. Space Congestion and Operational Complexity

Highlighted by the International Space Station receiving 478 conjunction notifications and conducting 3 avoidance maneuvers in the first half of 2023, the growing congestion in space operations demands careful navigation.

03. Swift Evolution of Space Capabilities and Participants

A marked increase in space-faring nations, with 53 new entrants since 2008, and a nearly 500% growth in orbit satellites, indicates the rapid expansion of space activities and capabilities.

04. USSF’s Mandate for Space Superiority

While space doesn’t allow for traditional victory, the USSF stands committed to ensuring space superiority, focusing on safety, security, stability, and long-term sustainability.

05. Investment in Resilience for Conflict Deterrence

With a dedicated budget of $340 million for operational infrastructure development, resilience in space ground and link segments aims to dissuade potential aggressors and promote stability.

KEYNOTESPEAKER

THE U.S. SPACE FORCE’S THEORY OF SUCCESS:

01. 02. 03.

Avoiding operational surprise

Denying first-mover advantage

Conducting responsible counter-space campaigning

These efforts will help maintain space superiority for all responsible actors while ensuring the safety, security, stability, and long-term sustainability of the domain.”

— Lt. Gen. DeAnna M. Burt

Space Domain Awareness

MODERATOR

WORK TOWARDS A COMMON UNDERSTANDING OF THE DOMAIN OF SPACE. PANEL OVERVIEW

Robert Schmidle

Lieutenant General (ret), U.S. Marine Corps, Advisor on Cyber Capabilities and Conflict Studies, Professor of Practice, Center on the Future of War and School of Politics and Global Studies, ASU

PANELISTS

Christopher Johnson

Space Law Advisor, Secure World Foundation

Charles Galbreath

Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, Senior Resident Fellow for Space Studies, Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence

Joseph Cox

Leidos Technical Fellow, Space Cybersecurity Subject Matter Expert

Led by Lieutenant General Robert Schmidle (ret), the panel converged experts from diverse sectors, offering a comprehensive exploration of the multifaceted space domain. Discussions traversed space domain awareness, cyber policy, international space law, cybersecurity, and the intricate fabric of space’s complexity. An underlying theme was the imperative of considering long-term interests, encompassing peaceful uses and sustainability, as keystones within space law. Complementing this, space security emerged as the ability to act freely while thwarting adversary interference.

Joseph Cox underscored the centrality of sensing and cyber security in acquiring data vital for informed decision-making. Timeliness emerged as a linchpin, with architecture timing gaining paramount importance within the dynamic space domain. Furthermore, accurate attribution surfaced as pivotal for decisive choices.

Charles Galbreath delved into the essence of space superiority and the gray zone, spotlighting unimpeded freedom of action as a defining factor. The discourse pivoted to data’s indispensable role and its interpreters, granting decision makers timely and credible insights, a cornerstone for effective decision-making.

Christopher Johnson explored the intricacies of space laws and their transcendent applicability. The discourse illuminated the intricate terrain of regulating space activities, unraveling intersections where these rules resonate and extend across diverse domains.

Unified by the pursuit of comprehending space’s complexity, the panel unfurled multifaceted insights that underpin the navigation of the space domain, where awareness, policy, law, and security coalesce.

Unique Challenges of Space Domain

The space domain presents unique challenges that cannot be directly analogized to the land, sea, or air domains. The physics and actors in space are distinct, leading to the need for specialized approaches and understanding of concepts like responsible behavior and self-defense in this context

02. Complexity of Cyber Domain

The complexity of the cyber domain as a human-made environment has less clearly defined boundaries compared to natural domains. Determining what is classified or not in the cyber domain can be intricate due to the nature of sources and methods, leading to challenges in managing and governing this space.

03. Preventative Measures and Risk Management

Space actors play a crucial role in preventing conflicts by taking voluntary actions such as tracking, transponding, and avoiding space objects. However, preventative actions can be risky and expensive when dealing with potential collisions. The timing architecture in space, as well as accurate attribution of behaviors, are important for risk mitigation and avoiding misunderstandings.

04. Data Challenges and Decision Making

While sensing provides essential data for decision making in space, the vast amount of data and limitations in its interpretation can hinder effective decision making. The work of analysts is critical to provide accurate, actionable information to decision makers in real time, especially in the presence of adversaries engaging in activities within the gray zone.

05. Evolution of Space Regulations

While there are existing laws such as the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, the evolving nature of space technology and activities requires constant updates and development of new laws. The panel acknowledges the need for continuous efforts to adapt legal frameworks to the changing landscape of space exploration and utilization.

“Wars are often started because of misunderstood intentions.”

—Joseph Cox

Space Law of Armed Conflict

EXPLORING THE CURRENT RULES OF

MODERATOR

Professor Melissa de Zwart Professor of Digital Technology, Security & Governance, Flinders University

PANELISTS

Colonel Matthew T. King *

Chief of International & Administrative Law, Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Dan Ceperley

Founder & CEO, LEO Labs

Lieutenant Colonel Joshua Wolff * Deputy Staff Judge Advocate, U.S. Space Command

* The views expressed represent the personal views and conclusions of the presenters in their personal capacity and are not necessarily the views or positions of the Department of Defense or U.S. government.

PANEL OVERVIEW

Under the guidance of Professor Melissa de Zwart, a panel convened to discuss the intricate legal dimensions of space operations. Discussions spanned topics such as due regard, shared state values, armed conflict liability, and the intricate status of astronauts, all while underscoring effective communication and cooperation as crucial facets. Transparency and collaboration were noted as vital defenses against unforeseen disruptions.

Colonel Matthew T. King underscored the necessity of comprehending the applicability of laws to space, along with addressing potential gaps. Advocating for a shared understanding to mitigate conflict risks, his perspective encompassed interpreting neutrality, clarifying state obligations, and adapting existing frameworks to the dynamic space domain.

Dan Ceperly drew attention to the rapid expansion of the commercial space sector amid underprepared regulations. The escalation in launches, coupled with debris growth, emphasized the urgency of enhanced coordination between commercial entities and states. The theme of independent verification emerged as a cornerstone for building trust.

Lieutenant Colonel Joshua Wolff highlighted concerns around Space Domain Awareness (SDA) latency, suggesting the utility of non-binding agreements to establish consensus on norms. Fostering shared understanding and robust communication were recognized as linchpins for reducing risk of conflict and promoting responsible conduct.

Collectively, the panel discussions unveiled the nuanced tapestry of space law, advocating for collaborative synergy, transparency, and adaptable norms to steer effective space operations.

WARFARE AS THEY CURRENTLY EXIST, AND HOW THEY ARE CONCEPTUALIZED SOCIALLY, POLITICALLY, AND CULTURALLY APPLIED.

01. Navigating Space’s Applications and Legal Terrain

Examining the wide-ranging applications of space technology uncovers a constellation of legal challenges. Simultaneously, efforts are directed towards formulating regulations and norms that govern conscientious behavior among private and state participants in space activities.

02. Strengthening Industry Collaboration and Transparency

Amplifying communication and cooperation within the industry becomes paramount to preempt unforeseen escalations. This endeavor serves a dual purpose of cultivating trust among stakeholders and fostering a transparent operational environment.

03. Crafting Pre-Approved Solutions for Escalation Management

Creating a selection of pre-approved options empowers policymakers with efficient tools to address potential escalations decisively. This strategic approach ensures a swift and well-considered response to evolving situations.

04. Navigating Global Accountability and Neutrality in Space

Scrutinizing the potential for international liability within the domain of space activities becomes crucial. Simultaneously, understanding the concept of neutrality in this context sheds light on the intricate dynamics of shared cosmic endeavors.

05. Assessing Effects on Civilians and Objects

The consequences of space activities unveils insights into potential impacts on both civilians and objects. This exploration aids in comprehending the broader implications of these actions and informs strategies for safeguarding entities involved.

One of the challenges in any messaging is the trustworthiness of it.”

— Lieutenant Colonel Joshua Wolff

Deterring Conflict in Space

UNDERSTANDING HOW WE DETER ADVERSARIES IN SPACE AS A SINGLE DOMAIN.

MODERATOR

Robert Schmidle

Lieutenant General (ret), U.S. Marine Corps, Advisor on Cyber Capabilities and Conflict Studies, Professor of Practice, Center on the Future of War and School of Politics and Global Studies, ASU

PANELISTS

Dr Namrata Goswami

Author, strategic analyst, and consultant on Great Power Politics, Space Policy, Alternate Futures, and Frameworks of Conflict Negotiation and Resolution

Colonel William “Dan” Sanders

Deputy Director, Strategy and Plans, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy

Eric Brown

Vice President, Lockheed Martin Mission Strategy and Advanced Capabilities, Communications, PNT, and Space Security

PANEL OVERVIEW

The panel led by Lieutenant General Robert Schmidle (ret) delved into the concept of deterrence within the context of space conflict, examining its interpretations across nations. The session highlighed space’s pivotal role in national security, contributing to a nation’s grand strategic capability and overall stability. A key observation emerged—the integral contribution of commercial entities in bolstering deterrent capabilities. The discussion emphasized strategic messaging and observable signatures as potent tools to discourage space system attacks.

Dr Namrata Goswami offered profound insights into deterrence concepts, with a specific focus on China, India, and the United States. Her analysis prompted essential queries regarding theoretical deterrence conceptions within the space realm. Dr Goswami highlighted two key Western theoretical approaches: deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment. These were linked to nations’ core roles—homeland defense and protection of allies against aggression.

Colonel William “Dan” Sanders acknowledged space’s reality as a warfighting domain, emphasizing adaptable policies to evolving security contexts. His emphasis lay on strategic space messaging’s integrative role in enhancing deterrence measures. The necessity of safeguarding critical space systems and services emerged, recognizing their significance in a fiercely competitive space landscape.

Eric Brown’s focus centered on space capabilities as a broader strategic lever for conflict deterrence. Highlighting space superiority as a critical arena, he explored strategies and methods necessary for addressing potential conflicts in orbit. Developing robust architectures and capabilities emerged as pivotal to effectively handle such conflicts, should they arise.

01. China’s Regional Conflict Advantage

China’s edge in regional conflict stems from its terrestrial and over-the-horizon radars, along with power projection capabilities. Studying China’s view on Taiwan and its risk appetite in space is crucial. Understanding how their decision-making affects deterrence and space capabilities is worth exploring.

02. Red Lines and Deterrence

The effectiveness of red lines in deterrence strategies was questioned. Exploring their limitations and challenges can offer insights into their role.

03. Private Sector and Space Transformation

The transformative role of the private sector in space was acknowledged. Integrating this aspect into deterrence strategies and its influence on the space domain warrants examination.

04.

Norms for Space Behavior

Highlighting the need for norms and shared language in discussing space behavior, further exploration into ongoing norm-setting efforts and their impact on deterrence strategies is valuable.

05.

Integration Across Platforms

The importance of seamless integration across platforms, particularly in space and nuclear technologies, was emphasized. Analyzing existing integration levels and identifying areas for improvement can shed light on progress and opportunities.

“I would argue that space should not be seen as a domain in its own right, but actually something that adds to the overall grand strategic capability of a nation.”

—Dr Namrata Goswami

GET INVOLVED

GET INVOLVED

Our goal is to bring together global perspectives to address critical issues in the space domain that impact our world. Your support through co-organization or co-investment, empowers us to drive meaningful change and make real impact.

CONTACT

Jessica Rousset Deputy Director ASU Interplanetary Initiative e: Jessica.Rousset@asu.edu