Conduit #6

BREEDING BRIGHT IDEAS

Serapis SSE helps ‘school’ Defence for the demands of a tech-rich tomorrow

A PICTURE OF PRODUCTIVITY

While recently flicking back through the digital pages of the last issue of Conduit, I was presented with a stark reminder that Geoffrey Chaucer – he of Canterbury Tales fame – wasn’t lying when he penned “time and tide wait for no man”. Although (I hope!) still recognisable as being me, the photo accompanying my ‘welcome’ article, which was taken before the turn of the decade, painted a rather more youthful picture of your programme director than the current reality.

I could, of course, have quickly resolved this divergence with any modern smartphone but, in the spirit of Serapis SSE, selected to trust in tech to do the job for me. Inspired by the team ‘horizon scanning’ in support of Dstl’s DELTA [Delivering Education, Learning and Training Advances] project (see pages 10-12), whose research included a look at how Generative AI can be used to create images, I put popular graphics editor Photoshop to work.

Using the software’s ‘generative fill’ tool, which requires the user to provide a text prompt, I asked the AI to age my original image. As you can see from the results, it appears my future will inexplicably feature denim attire – and the less said about the rest, the better.

Undeterred and in a curious mood, I set Photoshop a second task – changing the background of a more recent image to position me in a next-generation learning environment (again before and after shots are presented here for your review).

I hope I speak for the majority when I assert that, in respect of this particular app, generative AI has not yet fully matured. Thankfully, I am pleased to say with considerable confidence that the same is not true for Serapis SSE; five years since its creation, Lot 5 is in a steady state and continues to deliver Dstl’s vision.

AS WE APPROACH THE START OF THE SIXTH, AND FINAL, YEAR OF THE FRAMEWORK THIS SUMMER, IT IS UNQUESTIONABLY THE CASE THAT WE HAVE ACHIEVED THE AIM OF GROWING AND MANAGING A COMMUNITY OF PRACTICE WITH THE COMPOSITE SKILLS TO SUPPORT THE

and final, year of the framework this summer, it is unquestionably the case that we have achieved the aim of growing and managing a Community of Practice (COP) with the composite skills to support the UK Government’s research of next-generation Simulation and Synthetic Environments.

We are still attracting enquiries from organisations interested in joining the 100-strong COP, although the number actually signing up to deliver tasks is levelling off – evidence that, while word of Serapis SSE continues to spread, it is likely the majority of those with expertise in the required fields have already been captured. We will, however, continue to curate capability by on-boarding new suppliers as necessary.

The steadiness of the Serapis SSE ship is also reflected in the current year’s activity, which is characterised by ongoing efforts to deliver multi-year projects rather than a flurry of new tasks.

There is certainly no shortage of toil being expended but ‘great people doing

Web: qinetiq.com

Email: Serapis_SSE@t-s.qinetiq.com

Write: Cody Technology Park, Old Ively Road, Farnborough, Hampshire, GU14 0LX

Picture perfect? (clockwise from above):

Serapis SSE programme director Steve Yates as imagined by artificial intelligence is a learning environment of tomorrow; caught on camera at a corporate event; as pictured in previous issues of Conduit; and having been aged by Photoshop.

more of the same great things’ does pose a challenge to our capability stewardship role – the harnessing of further expertise from industry, academia and non-traditional defence suppliers.

This is perhaps an inevitability as we head toward our final year and all parties begin

to ponder what comes after July 2025 – the official end of the framework. Serapis SSE is yet to deliver a crystal ball but I don’t anticipate a hard exit. The framework has a ‘sunset’ clause which will allow tasks already underway to continue beyond the end date and during Year 6 we are predicting an increase in taskings designed to ensure there are no gaps in service.

Similarly, from a programme management perspective, we are keen to see the community endure and are working with an equally motivated Dstl to ensure everyone keeps connected and talking until any

IN THIS ISSUE...

WARGAMING POWER UP

Serapis SSE technologists explore whether AI has the mental might to test the mettle of military planners P3-7

PROVEN PEDIGREE

QinetiQ Training & Simulation’s Virtual Proving Ground helps British Army to spot the favourites among a crowded field of potential runners P8-9

EDUCATION’S EVOLUTION

Serapis SSE team tracks the trajectory of new technologies in teaching P10-12

future framework is put in place. The next chapter is currently being ‘drafted’ by Dstl under the Ministry of Defence’s Category Management – an initiative that will seek to establish appropriate sourcing mechanisms for identified capabilities and one that is being regularly briefed to industry – but it is too soon to know what that will look like for Serapis SSE members.

One thing’s for sure though, few things can look worse than my AI-inspired images! Enjoy the issue. – Steve Yates, Serapis SSE Programme Director (QinetiQ Training & Simulation)

Words: Andy Simms, TylerBale

WARGAMING POWER-UP

Serapis SSE technologists explore whether AI has the mental might to test the mettle of military planners

Even the most nostalgic of button bashers and joystick wagglers will acknowledge that advancements in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) have exponentially enhanced the experience of playing video games.

Classic titles such as Space Invaders and Golden Eye may have once proved addictive but the respective challenges of blasting alien aircraft flying in repetitive patterns and ‘neutralising’ evil henchmen unable to deviate from their robotic routines were far from mentally taxing.

These early examples of adversarial Non-Playable Characters (NPCs) were constrained by pre-programmed scripts and stuck steadfastly to rigid rules of engagement that resulted in predictable encounters and outcomes.

In sharp contrast, modern games boast virtual worlds that feel more immersive and responsive by virtue of developers’ embrace of machine learning. Today’s algorithm-aided ‘baddies’ can adapt to a player’s behaviour and dynamically assess their surroundings – displaying

human-like decision making to determine optimal courses of action.

Exploring how simulationbased wargaming might similarly ‘level up’ has been at the heart of a Serapis SSE research project being delivered by technologists at Frazer-Nash Consultancy for the UK’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl). Although the use of digital

exercises to stress-test organisational resilience and generate evidence to support strategic and procurement decisions is common across Defence, current simulations use scripts to control NPC – or, in a military context, Red Force – agents.

While more mature than the arcade adversaries of old, these computer-coded combatants have a restricted repertoire of responses and underestimate the command and control of

opposing forces, therefore the insight they afford Defence decision makers has a ceiling.

In a bid to break through this barrier, Frazer-Nash has been investigating whether the adoption of AI to drive Red Force behaviour can create an intelligent adversary to aid operational planning. And the research to date certainly suggests plenty of

potential for a wargaming power-up.

NEURAL ‘NASTIES’

Using a tactical air interdiction scenario within two existing simulation platforms – RET [Rapid Exploratory modelling Toolset] and Command: Modern Operations – as a test bed for evaluating machine learning technologies, the systems, engineering and technology solutions company has successfully demonstrated how a deep neural network could be used to sharpen the strategic edge of a virtual enemy.

When pitted against a scripted, well-armoured Blue Force in a mission to gain control of several bridges, the ‘airborne’ agent – honed for battle in 20 hours through the exploitation of reinforcement learning, which ‘rewards’ actions that result in a new state – won 96 per cent of the 100 games it played.

Key to the AI’s performance, according to Dr Greg Chance – a consultant supporting the task – was its migration to the cloud (Azure) and the almost limitless

computation resource that came with doing so.

“Cloud computing, the dynamic allocation of hardware and latest graphics processing units are key enablers for stateof-the-art machine learning,” he told Conduit. “A lot is now possible with AI – we just need to find and engineer the right solutions.”

NEXT LEVEL

With the project’s proof of concept already showing real promise as a means of simulating Red Force responses, plans are underway to enhance its sophistication to incorporate the space domain, satellites and ground station units, and uncrewed aircraft.

However, Dr Chance insisted that any further closing of the reality gap, which could include the AI agent mimicking real-life commanders’ tactical traits, is as much about maturing the knowledge of human wargamers as it is about improving the intellect of the machine.

“The intent and real advantage of having a smarter Red Force is that it can be used as a decision support tool for a Blue Force,” continued Dr Chance, an Honorary Fellow of the University of Bristol whose previous academic positions related to the research of robotics and AI.

“It provides the ability to predict the outcomes of a Red

Force course of action more accurately and in complex scenarios do so far quicker than a human, running millions of tests to inform decisions.

“Without AI support, in the future those in command could

LIKE ANY OTHER FORM OF AI OR AUTOMATION, THERE IS A NEED TO BUILD TRUST IN THE SYSTEM. THERE’S STILL LOTS TO DO BEFORE SUCH TECHNOLOGY COULD BE RELIED ON

face being overwhelmed with inputs and factors, such as cyber threats.”

BRAKES APPLIED

Dr Chance, however, was quick to impress that AI’s role in the making of tomorrow’s operational decisions was likely to remain as that of an adviser rather than commander.

“Like any other form of AI or automation, there is a need to build trust in the system,” he concluded. “There’s still lots to do before such technology could be relied on and I would compare its evolution to that of self-driving cars.

“Most motorists are happy to take advantage of driving assistance tools such as lane keeping but aren’t yet – and may never be – ready to let the vehicle take complete control.

“Similarly, AI agents can undoubtedly contribute to operational planning and provide valuable warnings of unseen threats but will form part of a Human Agent Collective rather than replace anyone in uniform.”

fnc.co.uk

Dr Greg Chance Digital Assurance Group, Frazer-Nash Consultancy

PROVEN PEDIGREE

Winning concept: Serapis SSE’s Virtual Proving Ground helps British Army to spot the favourites among a crowded field of potential runners

Words: Andy Simms, TylerBale

Although the notion that ‘no idea is a bad idea’ is as applicable to the Armed Forces as it is to any other walk of life, the need to swiftly spot the winners from the also-rans and non-runners is of paramount importance to the British Army as it bids to keep pace with potential adversaries.

Investing time, money and physical toil in the pursuit of promising concepts that ultimately demonstrate themselves to be duds can blinker procurement pathways and pose a threat to the lives of exercising troops and soldiers on operations.

Steering the Service away from such outcomes by quickly identifying bright ideas worth

backing is at the heart of the Virtual Proving Ground (VPG) programme, which is sponsored by Army HQ’s Futures Directorate, managed by Dstl and being delivered by QinetiQ Training and Simulation alongside hand-picked specialists under the Serapis SSE framework.

Already at a gallop having delivered six experiments to date, including Army Warfighting Experiment 22 and 23, and been showcased on the Army stand at DSEI, VPG uses a state-of-the-art synthetic environment – based on DVS2, the UK Ministry of Defence’s common virtual simulation tool – to stage bespoke human-centric experiments

and gather verified evidence to demonstrate the viability of everything from novel weapons systems and disruptive doctrine to prototype platforms.

VPG is run on a network of gaming-spec computers that can be set up at the point of need, scaled to host section- to battlegroupsized events, and removes many of the constraints commonly associated with live experimentation.

Activities can be reset, repeated and reconfigured quickly; experiments run without the significant costs involved in deploying people and systems to real-world training areas; and concepts explored without putting

personnel or equipment in harm’s way – a benefit of particular value to industry partners fielding one-off prototypes or assets designed to go ‘bang’.

“It is often prohibitively expensive and time-consuming to produce physical models of concept capabilities, so the benefits of having access to a fully customisable ‘test facility’ that can accommodate Blue and Red Forces are clear,” explained QinetiQ Training & Simulation’s VPG lead Ed Pawsey. “A synthetic environment allows both current and future systems to be represented alongside each other and used in concert by those who could ultimately deploy on operations with them.

“The VPG is immersive but, more importantly, it features a bespoke solution design and high-fidelity models that are subjected to continuous verification and validation to ensure the capability generates and captures data and analytics that can be trusted and further exploited by Dstl and its

military customers.”

The agility of the system to support Defence decisionmaking is highlighted by the hurdles in knowledge it has helped the Army to clear during its first two years of operation.

To date, VPG’s impressive form has seen it used to accelerate the Service’s understanding of how the adoption of hybrid electric drive technologies might impact on the manoeuvrability and survivability of Jackal and Foxhound crews, and contributed to research into the use of uncrewed ground vehicles and uncrewed aerial systems for casualty evacuation tasks.

In addition to complementing experiments on QinetiQ’s home turf in Farnborough, it has been deployed to Salisbury Plain, the Defence BattleLab in Dorset and used to explore efficiencies in the command-and-control structure of ground-based air defence by 7th Air Defence Group at Thorney Island in Portsmouth.

VPG is also aiding the development of Dstl’s electric-

IT IS OFTEN PROHIBITIVELY EXPENSIVE AND TIME-CONSUMING TO PRODUCE PHYSICAL MODELS OF CONCEPT CAPABILITIES, SO THE BENEFITS OF HAVING ACCESS TO A FULLY CUSTOMISABLE ‘TEST FACILITY’ ARE CLEAR

Ed Pawsey VPG lead, QinetiQ Training & Simulation

drive mobility test rig, an 8x8 high mobility technology demonstrator capable of crossing ground and obstacles that only tracks would consider but doing so at a reduced weight burden.

“There is nothing like the mobility test rig in service

so – among other elements –we have created vehicle rigs, a physics model to simulate manoeuvrability, custom dashboards and head-up displays to enable complex mobility system investigations,” added Ed.

“None of what we are doing with VPG is about prejudicing Defence’s direction of travel, it is about presenting a body of evidence to Dstl for combination with other data on which recommendations can be made to the Army with confidence.

“The trusted data VPG generates is set against recognised experimentation processes and may ultimately impact on tactics, techniques and procedures or influence investment decisions.”

With the Army currently operating in an environment in which ideas proliferate faster than physical prototypes, the going is good for experimentation, and it is a field in which VPG is fast building a reputation as a Thoroughbred.

EXAMINING EDUCATION’S EVOLUTION

Serapis SSE team tracks the trajectory of new technologies in teaching

If futurists are to be believed, teachers – parodied in the not-too-distant past for being Luddites lacking the technical knowhow to operate overhead projectors or even the most primitive of video recorders – will be the curators of some of the most cutting-edge technology within the next 25 years.

Words: Andy Simms, TylerBale

A white paper, commissioned by Ed-Tech provider GoStudent and published in 2023, prophesied the adoption of human-machine interfaces that will enable educators to detect pupil burn out; the use of genetic testing to plot learning pathways; and entirely virtual –and hyper-realistic – classrooms capable of bringing any lesson to life.

And while The end of school as you know it: Education in 2050 report focused on the potential next chapter for schools and colleges, many of its exciting elements are already being actively explored in a Defence context under the Serapis SSE framework.

Delivered by Dstl in collaboration with industry and academia, the DELTA [Delivering Education, Learning and Training Advances] project is closely tracking the dynamic trajectory of technology’s future role in teaching environments in a bid to ensure the UK’s Armed Forces are not left cramming for the tough tests of tomorrow.

As part of this effort, researchers and technologists at Cyber-Human Lab and QinetiQ Training and Simulation have been assessing the maturity of emerging capabilities and how they might be usefully employed.

ADVANCED READING

This analysis has been captured in the form of ‘Horizon Scans’ – informed summaries that provide Dstl with an overview of a specific technology or trend, a précis of its importance and relevance to Defence, a rundown of the risks and opportunities it presents, and an appraisal of the time-frame in which it might be exploited. To date, the

A DIGITAL TWIN OF A TRAINEE COULD BE USED TO BETTER UNDERSTAND AN INDIVIDUAL’S LEARNING AND MODEL FUTURE TRAINING

STIMULI

ACCORDINGLY

research team has scrutinised the advances being made in 15 fields – which include quantum computing, synthetic data and transmedia learning – and has shared its findings in three batches of five reports.

“Although thoroughly researched, the documents we have delivered for the DELTA project are not intended to be the definitive answers to Defence’s exam questions,” explained Daran Crush, a principal systems engineer at QinetiQ Training and Simulation. “They are more akin to study guides that serve as a blueprint for what the training of tomorrow might entail, that highlight some of the advantages the technologies might afford and provide a first look at the potential pathway to exploitation. The work is a stock-take of where some of the potential learning tools of the future are today; some remain distant prospects, others are relatively close to being ready for use, but all the areas looked at offer opportunities.”

CUTTING-EDGE CURRICULUM

Among the sci-fi-esque subjects

studied on behalf of Dstl was the birth – and rapid maturing – of digital twin technology and how such ‘synthetic siblings’ might be used to enhance Defence learning, training and simulation.

The researchers’ report on digital twins – high fidelity virtual replicas of physical objects, people, systems or processes that can be used to optimise their real-world doubles – cited how the concept was already being put to use by the automotive industry to predict the performance of vehicles and anticipate component failures.

From a Defence perspective, the study team highlighted how a digital twin of a trainee could be used to better understand an individual’s learning and model future training stimuli accordingly, and – in respect of equipment and weapons – enable training systems to be developed, upgraded and updated in tandem with the evolution of real-life capabilities.

Other fast maturing technologies scanned by the Serapis SSE team included OpenAI, web XR, neural

radiance fields, motion tracking for musculoskeletal injury detection, augmented reality, methods for measuring the emotional state of trainees and distributed team working. Haptics, the science and technology of touch feedback, or the feeling of touch, in the context of human-computer interaction, was identified as a rapidly developing field that is being increasingly implemented into a wide range of consumer devices, wearables and touch-screens. Already a feature of a number of virtual simulation and mixed reality learning applications in Defence, the Serapis SSE forecasters suggest future use cases could see firearms simulations being better able to emulate recoil, weapon malfunctions and other technical feedback, and ‘sensations’ supplementing military medical training. Whether or not instruction in battlefield first aid is ultimately helped by haptics, DELTA’s directory of Horizon Scans represents a finger on technology’s pulse that can be read by decision-makers across Defence.