INTERNATIONAL SPACE
Space terrorism future trends analysis By Dr Chris Flaherty My Space Warfare Analysis Lab
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his Space Terrorism Future Trends Analysis looks at Space Terrorism incidents that have occurred since 1972, as the basis of a future trends prediction. This paper will start with a fictional account of a kinetic attack on the Earth’s Satellite Layer in Low Earth Orbit, that has been identified as the most extreme terrorist act that current literature on Space Terrorism can predict. The mockscenario is used to illustrate the likely scale, and potential limitations of such an attack taking place, and is suggested as a potential Space Security wargaming scenario.
A KINETIC ATTACK SCENARIO The following scenario envisages a well-funded extremist collective called ‘God’s Justice for Earth’s Poor’. Envisaged as a mix of various known extremist-conspiratorial groups and militias that currently exist, this could be an interfaith-based ideology strongly oriented towards conspiratorial and extreme beliefs broadly characterised as anti-capitalist-elites, anti-world government and antitechnology. They are multi-national, funded by donations from a variety of wealthy conspiratorial believers in the West. The group have found safe-harbour in an equatorial located collapsed state, in an environmentally devastated desert region, where they have occupied an re-engineered
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a former insurgency tunnel system. The tunnels have been turned into a rocket building factory. The group has designed a rudimentary small-lift launch vehicle (based on various designs for a) three-stage 25 meters tall rocket, with a first stage diameter of two meters, tapering at its upper stage to 1.5 meters, with a payload of under 250 kilograms. It is able to carry its payload up to around 300 kilometres in Low Earth Orbit. The rockets are simple stainless steel fabrication, using old rocket engine components, and 3D-printed copies of well-known designs from some of the World’s most successful Space Launch Companies. The fuel type is also easy to collect and store, such as a kerosene liquid oxygen mix. Some of the technician-workers are former Space Industry employees, and recent converts. The plan is to launch several rockets from tunnels, where the group have excavated-out launch pits, or use converted flatbed trucks carrying launch rigs. Not all the rockets are expected to work, however the more that can be launched in a salvo the greater the odds, for a successful set of detonations in Space. The rockets are rudimentary and closely related to the old Soviet SCUD-like ballistic missiles. The programmed rockets are designed to fly into Low Earth Orbit, and detonate simple explosive warheads that are packed with large tungsten balls. The group’s plan is to introduce several debris clouds into Low Earth Orbit, with
