ASITII Festival of Space 2021 Wrap-up & Australia in Space Magazine Preview Edition 2022

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The ASITII Festival of Space took place throughout the

mission control, satellite manufacture, space launch

month of November and officially commenced in October

environmental standards, and investing in space.

with a Women in Space event, with World Space Week.

ASITII is focused on building a cross-sector industry Throughout the festival we heard from incredible speakers

network, gaining knowledge and meeting like-minded people,

on the most intriguing topics in space, including national

business and policy experts, academic researchers and

space

students

capability,

space

regulation and law,

rocket

technology, Spaceport Australia, space tracking and

interested in the growing Space Industry, in

Australia and internationally.

60+ Speakers 5 Countries 18+ Sessions NOW AVAILABLE ON DEMAND

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WATC H ON D EMAND YOU’RE INVITED TO A VIRTUAL PANEL

NextGen Space Friday 5th November

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Associate Professor Marta Yebra

12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Philippa Ryan Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Senior Lecturer, ANU College of Law

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Director of the ANU Bushfire Initiative

Associate Professor Francis Bennet

Catherine Ball MODERATOR Associate Professor of Practice: Engineering, The Australian National University

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space

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Space Innovation for Defence and National Security Wednesday 10th November

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Carl Seubert

Peter Kerr

Dr Nick Stacy

Rod Smith

Michelle Gee

Chief Research Officer, SmartSat CRC

Coordinator, Defence and National Security, SmartSat CRC

Senior Principal Scientist, Space, Defence Science and Technology Group

STaR Shot Leader, Resilient Multi-mission STaR Shot, Defence Science and Technology Group

Chief Technology Officer, Innovation and Strategic Research at Defence Science and Technology Group

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NextGen Space Friday 5th November

Associate Professor Marta Yebra

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Philippa Ryan

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Director of the ANU Bushfire Initiative

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Senior Lecturer, ANU College of Law

Associate Professor Francis Bennet

Catherine Ball MODERATOR Associate Professor of Practice: Engineering, The Australian National University

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space

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Space Innovation for Defence and National Security Wednesday 10th November

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Carl Seubert

Peter Kerr

Dr Nick Stacy

Rod Smith

Michelle Gee

Chief Research Officer, SmartSat CRC

Coordinator, Defence and National Security, SmartSat CRC

Senior Principal Scientist, Space, Defence Science and Technology Group

STaR Shot Leader, Resilient Multi-mission STaR Shot, Defence Science and Technology Group

Chief Technology Officer, Innovation and Strategic Research at Defence Science and Technology Group

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NextGen Space Friday 5th November

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Associate Professor Marta Yebra

12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Philippa Ryan Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Senior Lecturer, ANU College of Law

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Director of the ANU Bushfire Initiative

Associate Professor Francis Bennet

Catherine Ball MODERATOR Associate Professor of Practice: Engineering, The Australian National University

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space

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Space Innovation for Defence and National Security Wednesday 10th November

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Carl Seubert

Peter Kerr

Dr Nick Stacy

Rod Smith

Michelle Gee

Chief Research Officer, SmartSat CRC

Coordinator, Defence and National Security, SmartSat CRC

Senior Principal Scientist, Space, Defence Science and Technology Group

STaR Shot Leader, Resilient Multi-mission STaR Shot, Defence Science and Technology Group

Chief Technology Officer, Innovation and Strategic Research at Defence Science and Technology Group

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NextGen Space Friday 5th November

Associate Professor Marta Yebra

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Philippa Ryan

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Director of the ANU Bushfire Initiative

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Senior Lecturer, ANU College of Law

Associate Professor Francis Bennet

Catherine Ball MODERATOR Associate Professor of Practice: Engineering, The Australian National University

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space

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Space Innovation for Defence and National Security Wednesday 10th November

12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Carl Seubert

Peter Kerr

Dr Nick Stacy

Rod Smith

Michelle Gee

Chief Research Officer, SmartSat CRC

Coordinator, Defence and National Security, SmartSat CRC

Senior Principal Scientist, Space, Defence Science and Technology Group

STaR Shot Leader, Resilient Multi-mission STaR Shot, Defence Science and Technology Group

Chief Technology Officer, Innovation and Strategic Research at Defence Science and Technology Group

www.asitii.space

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NextGen Space Friday 5th November

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Associate Professor Marta Yebra

12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Philippa Ryan

Associate Professor Francis Bennet

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Senior Lecturer, ANU College of Law

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Director of the ANU Bushfire Initiative

Catherine Ball MODERATOR Associate Professor of Practice: Engineering, The Australian National University

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space

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Space Innovation for Defence and National Security Wednesday 10th November

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Carl Seubert

Peter Kerr

Dr Nick Stacy

Rod Smith

Michelle Gee

Chief Research Officer, SmartSat CRC

Coordinator, Defence and National Security, SmartSat CRC

Senior Principal Scientist, Space, Defence Science and Technology Group

STaR Shot Leader, Resilient Multi-mission STaR Shot, Defence Science and Technology Group

Chief Technology Officer, Innovation and Strategic Research at Defence Science and Technology Group

PLATINUM SPONSOR

www.asitii.space

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NextGen Space Friday 5th November

Associate Professor Marta Yebra Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Director of the ANU Bushfire Initiative

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12pm – 1pm AEDT

Dr Philippa Ryan

Associate Professor Francis Bennet

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space & Senior Lecturer, ANU College of Law

Mission Specialist, The Australian National University Institute for Space

PLATINUM SPONSOR

Catherine Ball MODERATOR Associate Professor of Practice: Engineering, The Australian National University

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Professor Phil

Perth Space Industry Sundowner Building Western Australia’s Space Eco-System

A

fter seventeen virtual panels with 60 plus speakers from five countries, it was Perth’s chance to turn it on with an inperson sundowner session attended by many of Western Australia’s leading space participants.

The event was held at Curtin University, St Georges Terrace in the heart of the Perth CBD. With a buzz of excitement for the direction WA is heading, throughout the night, the words to note were Inspiration – Collaboration – Passion - Capability – Opportunity. It was obvious the State is committed to showcasing their potential to the world.

In the spirit of collaboration and ecosystem development, the audience enjoyed hearing from Curtin University’s Chris Moran and University of Western Australia’s Gia Parish.

Professor Phil Bland entertained the audience with a fascinating presentation on “Why science and inspirational missions = jobs

10 | Australia in Space Magazine

and growth in the space sector”. As Director of the Space, Science and Technology Centre at Curtin University, Bland lead the successful launch of the Binar CubeSat earlier in 2021.

“Building Western Australia’s Space Ecosystem” was the panel discussion theme.

Bringing together a great cross section of the space community, the discussions included building depth with education through to career pathways and building on existing capabilities. The panel discussed in detail the strong remote operations experience and capabilities this mining state brings to the table, whilst also discussing economic diversification and opportunities. It was clear that Western Australia has positioned itself to attract investment and key strategic partnerships with the global space community and looking to be a leading force in the years to come.

Bland (Curtin)

Australia in Space Magazine | 11

Gary Hale moderating the panel with Live virtual cross with Aude (Chief Technology Officer, Australian Space Agency) Vignelles and David Flanagan

Professor Chris Moran

From left to right: Chris Moran, David Matrai, Linda Dawson, Samuel Forbes, Gary Hale, Jason Crusan, Eleanor Huges and Phil Bland

12 | Australia in Space Magazine

From left to right: Linda Dawson, Samuel Forbes and Jason Crusan and Eleanor Hughes

Gary Hale

Asha Stabback & Dr Amy Parker

(Speaking ) Eleanor Hughes (Principal, Joseph Banks Secondary College)

John Wiese, Thales with Philip Pierson

Australia in Space Magazine | 13

Festival of Space concludes in Sydney at Neighbourhood Earth T

he ASITII Festival of Space concluded with a complimentary group visit to the Neighbourhood Earth immersive space experience at the International Convention Centre Sydney (ICC Sydney).

In additional to industry colleagues and participants, a majority of the group were from the One Giant Leap Australia Foundation with enthusiastic students, teachers and parents.

The One Giant Leap Australia Foundation is a Not For Profit Organisation whose purpose is to advance STEM education and careers. Their goal is to provide life changing opportunities for students and educators to develop and build their knowledge and understanding of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics.

Jackie Carpenter of One Giant Leap Australia Foundation confirmed the group enjoyed the session and noted a number of positive comments and observations.

14 | Australia in Space Magazine

“The Neighbourhood Earth presentation last night was very informative and engaging.

The new endeavours into space exploration looks astounding. Attending the display made me excited about the prospects of where the world was going next.”

“I think the inspiration of these types of presentations for children is outstanding.

What children get from being involved in immersive experiences sets children’s mindset, which has massive implications in nearly every field. It engages them and gives them the desire to excel.”

Australia in Space Magazine | 15

AUSTRALIA SPACE

A dedicated channel for all things in Space, including Defence and Military Technology and related Aeronautics, Information Systems, Communication Systems and Space Exploration.

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Contents

24

26 19

40

Editor's Desk

22 Northern Territory spaceport prepares for 2022 blast off Director & Executive Editor Chris Cubbage Director David Matrai Art Director Stefan Babij

MARKETING AND ADVERTISING promoteme@mysecuritymedia.com Copyright © 2021 - My Security Media Pty Ltd GPO Box 930 SYDNEY N.S.W 2001, AUSTRALIA E: promoteme@mysecuritymedia.com All Material appearing in Australian in Space Magazine is copyright. Reproduction in whole or part is not permitted without permission in writing from the publisher. The views of contributors are not necessarily those of the publisher. Professional advice should be sought before applying the information to particular circumstances.

O UR CHAN NE LS

24 Space hunt begins as WA’s Binar-1 mission takes next giant leap 26 Australia on target to bring Laser technology up to speed 28 Inmarsat unveils the communications network of the future 32 Sydney University joins the hunt for habitable planets 34 Lockheed Martin appoints former RAAF Chief as new CEO 36 Australian rocket tests satellite cyber security on home soil 38 Missile strike on Russian satellite threatens safety of the

International Space Station

40 The mid-level space power 49 Geared up for launch: Four years of space engineering takes flight 50 Australian space manufacturing network bids for three new space

facilities earmarked for Queensland

52 Space tourism -Adventures industry 58 UK-Australian Space Industry Talk 64 Space terrorism future trends analysis

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn. We post about new issue releases, feature interviews, events and other topical discussions.

18 | Australia in Space Magazine

Special Contribution Dr Chris Flaherty

Chris Flaherty is a Space & Defense Tech and Security News Regular Contributor.

58

Editor's Desk Chris Cubbage

CPP, CISA, GAICD Director & Executive Editor

This roadmap is symbolic of a pivotal moment in time for the Australian civil space sector; an opportunity that must be harnessed now to the benefit of our industry and society into the future.

- Enrico Palermo, Head, Australian Space Agency, November 2021

W

elcome to Australia’s newest space sector publication. The Australian Space Agency’s mission is to triple the size of the national civil space sector to

Coinciding with the ASITII 2021 series, the Australian Space Agency released the Earth Observation (EO) from Space Roadmap, the second in a series of 7 roadmaps

$12 billion and create an additional 20,000 jobs by 2030. So, it’s only natural there

which outlines a 10-year plan. This roadmap prioritises 5 focus segments over the

needs to be greater effort to amplify awareness and celebrate the achievements and

next decade:

challenges that lay ahead.

1.

Australian EO Missions and Payloads

The Australia space industry clearly faces a challenging and exciting period

2.

Data Quality Assurance and Integrity Monitoring

as it expands the development of launch capability, along with the alignment to

3.

Enhanced Data Management

STEM sectors, advanced manufacturing sector and defence sector. Australia will be

4.

International EO Partnerships and Leadership

challenged to have a purely sovereign space capability and partnerships with the

5.

Access to International Data and Missions

US, UK, France, Japan, India, South Korea and Singapore will be critical and broadly applied. This is also all in competition with China and Russia and hence the defence domain in space is fundamental and underlines the need for sovereign capability.

Crewed flights to the Moon and Mars, including the establishment of permanent human bases are a core global objective but major technological advances and governance solutions are needed to overcome the myriad of challenges that confront human survival in outer space. These challenges provide valuable opportunities for Australia’s multidisciplinary research to engage with new space endeavours.

In addition to our Space and Defence news channel and space interviews conducted throughout 2020 and 2021, we have expanded further. During October’s World Space Week and the ASITII Festival of Space, held throughout November, we heard from an incredible line up of over 60 speakers, covering the most important and intriguing topics in the space domain. Australia is yet to develop a clear national space strategy, but it is widely recognised space is a global business and broad in its

In support of the Australian space sector roadmaps, engagement with industry and the broader community is required to ensure sustainable societal support of space operations, as well as to attract the next, emerging generation of Australians who will work and, hopefully, be in space.

We trust you will support our own endeavour to engage, educate and entertain the Australian space sector and its interdependent sectors, such as robotics and advanced manufacturing. Across our channels we keep abreast with the latest developments and look forward to sharing these in publications such as these.

Enjoy the reading, watching and listening.

Chris Cubbage CPP, CISA, GAICD Director and Executive Editor

skill and science discipline reach.

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AUSTRALIA SPACE

Episode 274 – SPACE SECTOR IN ASIA: A PERSPECTIVE FROM A PIONEERING ASIAN SPACE ORGANIZATION

Space Sector in Asia Ms Lynette Tan

Jane Lo, Singapore Correspondent speaks with Ms Lynette TAN, Chief Executive. Singapore Space and Technology Limited (SSTL). As Chief Executive and Board Member of SSTL, Lynette develops the organisation’s industry initiatives, leads its startup accelerator programmes and drives its consulting business, identifying opportunities for government organisations, companies and individuals to make critical decisions in the growing Asian space industry.

Chief Executive. Singapore Space and Technology Limited (SSTL) Interview by Jane Lo, Singapore Correspondent

00:00

00:00

LISTEN HERE Australia Riskin in Leaders Space Magazine 21 Australia Space Magazine || 21 w w w . s p a c e a n d d e f e n s eSPACE . i oMAGAZINE SPECIAL | Cyber

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Northern Territory spaceport prepares for 2022 blast off

S

even NASA personnel are in the Northern Territory to

By MySecurity Media

prepare for a series of suborbital rocket launches in mid-2022 from the Arnhem Space Centre. The

launches will be the first NASA has undertaken from a commercial space centre outside the United States.

Canberra-based start-up Equatorial Launch Australia was awarded a contract in 2019 to provide a temporary southern hemisphere site for NASA to launch scientific spaceflights.

Equatorial Launch Australia CEO Carley Scott says the chance to team up with NASA is an incredible opportunity.

“It positions the Arnhem Space Centre as a uniquely capable asset in the fast-growing global space sector.”

Carrying scientific instruments to conduct astrophysics research, three sounding rockets will take off in 2022. The rockets will climb to an altitude of more than 200 kilometres.

22 | Australia in Space Magazine

The southern hemisphere launch site allows NASA scientists the chance to observe astronomical objects normally unseen on their usual northern hemisphere launches.

“The science being carried out by these three telescope missions is critical to furthering our understanding of the atmosphere around other planets,” says NASA’s Sounding Rockets Program Office Operations Manager Scott Bissett.

Situated on the Dhupuma Plateau near Nhulunbuy, some 700 kilometres east of Darwin, the Arnhem Space Centre is approximately 12° south of the Equator and on a 40-year lease from the land’s traditional owners.

Ms Scott says the site’s proximity to the Equator but little else offers it unique advantages. She says the risk profile of the site is low. Aside from Nhulunbuy, the area is sparsely populated and remains largely undeveloped. The near-equatorial location makes it easier for rockets to move

AUSTRALIA SPACE

In Australia, the industry is anticipated to employ 20,000 people and be worth $12 billion by the end of this decade.

outside the Earth’s gravitational pull.

“If you can get close to the equator, you can get a really efficient launch because of the earth’s rotational velocity,” Ms Scott. “You need less fuel, so you can enhance payload weight in each rocket. You also get more suborbital observation time, which is a real benefit to NASA’s scientific experiments.”

The NASA personnel will spend 40 days at the space centre currently under construction. NASA is on-site to ensure the launchpad meets its specifications. Local workers and contractors from nearby Nhulunbuy are undertaking much of the construction work.

Concrete was poured in mid-September, and ships are docking at the Nhulunbuy port bringing in container loads of materials.

When completed in time for the 2022 launches,

Equatorial Launch Australia says their site will be able to cater for commercial, research, and government business.

The launchpads will provide sub-orbital and orbital access for domestic and international launches, satellite operations and testing, and support for government-related space activities.

The space centre will offer three launchpads, each the size of a house block. Carley Scott says rockets over 15 meters long can take off from the site, with washingmachine size payloads.

Globally, the space industry is expected to be worth US$1 trillion by 2040. In Australia, the industry is anticipated to employ 20,000 people and be worth $12 billion by the end of this decade.

Australia Australia in in Space Space Magazine Magazine || 23 23

Space hunt begins as WA’s Binar-1 mission takes next giant leap

By MySecurity Media

24 | Australia in Space Magazine

W

estern Australia’s homegrown spacecraft, Binar-1, has been shot into the vacuum of space- deployed into Low Earth Orbit from the International Space Station (ISS), five weeks after blasting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

Director of Curtin’s Space Science and Technology Centre (SSTC), John Curtin Distinguished Professor Phil Bland, joined SSTC staff and students yesterday to watch a live feed as Binar-1 was placed into the tiny airlock of the Japanese Experiment Module Kibo on the ISS and sent into space.

Professor Bland explained WA’s first homegrown spacecraft is now on a journey to make first contact before testing critical systems, collecting data, and taking photographs from 400 kilometres above Earth.

“The launch of WA’s first homegrown spacecraft on the Space-X rocket was exciting, but this moment and the coming

few days are the really crucial points for our Binar Space Program and the team of staff and students who designed and built Binar-1 from scratch,” Professor Bland said.

“We can’t wait to hear Binar-1’s ‘first words’ from space – that will be the time when we will be able to declare the success of our first space-mission and put us firmly on the path to proving that our technology can deliver.

“That contact and the protocol testing that follow will set us up to achieve our aim of sending six more satellites into space over the next 18 months, and our ultimate goal of taking WA to the Moon by 2025.”

Binar Program Manager, Ben Hartig said with Binar-1 now safely in orbit, the team is focussed on listening out for her ‘heartbeat’.

“We built Binar-1 to communicate using Ultra High Frequency (UHF) radio signals which is the backbone of an exciting opportunity to engage both the ham radio

Professor Phil Bland DIRECTOR OF THE SPACE, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CENTRE

community and STEM students,” Mr Hartig said.

“We have been collaborating with amateurs around the world and local school groups, so that they are also able to listen to Binar-1 as it passes overhead.

“With the right equipment and antenna, anyone can hear Binar-1 when it makes contact. But it will be our Curtin SSTC team who can decode the signal to tell us where Binar-1 is and how it is performing. The team will confirm all systems are working and then begin sending instructions for the next phase of its mission.”

The deployment of Binar-1 was made possible through Curtin’s partnership with start-up Space BD Inc, which is the official service provider selected by JAXA, the Japanese Space Agency, in ISS utilisation and satellite launch service.

Testing the viability of Binar-1 in space, will be facilitated through Curtin’s alliance with remote operations

specialists, Fugro, and their Space Automation, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Control Complex (SpAARC).

The Binar Space Program has been generously supported by a State Government investment of $500,000 to facilitate joint operations with the Fugro SpAARC facility and advance a valuable outreach component to inspire young people in WA to pursue careers in STEM. It is also supported by the Australian Remote Operations for Space and Earth (AROSE) consortium.

Binar-1 will orbit 400 kilometres above Earth’s surface, about the distance from Perth to Albany, and will circle the planet once every 90 minutes. Two small cameras on board will also capture images of WA’s coastline.

The WA public can re-watch the Binar-1 launch and be part of history by visiting the Big Binar at WA Museum Boola Bardip.

Australia Australia in in Space Space Magazine Magazine || 25 25

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Australia on target to bring Laser technology up to speed

By MySecurity Media

26 | Australia in Space Magazine

T

he University of South Australia has been granted a $1.8 million Federal Government contract to develop technology that underpins the next generation of high-powered lasers in Australia for the defence and manufacturing sectors.

UniSA Professor of Laser Engineering, David Lancaster, will lead the three-year project, funded by the Defence Science and Technology Group (DSTG), in collaboration with the University of Adelaide.

Professor Lancaster, who heads one of the country’s leading laser and photonics manufacturing research laboratories at UniSA, will use the funding to help build sovereign manufacturing capability, bringing Australia up to speed with other developed nations.

“High-powered lasers are increasingly being used in defence and manufacturing, but despite a long history of developing lasers in Australia, our technology is still relatively immature compared to other countries,” he says.

“There is a substantial gap between the research outputs and the needs of our defence industry, so Australia has had to buy this technology from other countries, which is quite restrictive because most nations severely limit their exports of lasers.”

Over the next three years, Prof Lancaster aims to build a new type of high-powered laser that combines multiple smaller lasers, fine tuning the manufacturing process so it is cheaper and more efficient.

“In the past, I have worked on lasers that take years to build and cost millions of dollars. I think it’s more important to put years of effort to develop the technology and manufacturing processes to build many miniature and safer lasers which cost hundreds of dollars each. That is our aim.”

UniSA’s Laser Physics and Photonics Devices Lab will manufacture the lasers and the University of Adelaide’s Institute for Photonics and Advanced Sensors will develop the specialist laser glass.

Prof Lancaster says Australia’s universities and defence sector need to be more closely integrated to build sovereign independence in laser technology.

“The reason that UniSA and the University of Adelaide have been selected for this project is that our miniature laser technology and manufacturing processes are world leading and will supercharge the DSTG’s laser system program,” he says.

High-powered lasers are also the preferred tools for the manufacturing sector as they can cut, shape and weld most industrial materials with high precision.

Their ability to manipulate and transform materials makes them ideal for the automotive, computer and clothing industries as they can create extremely fine features that are near impossible to make using traditional machining equipment.

Australia in Space Magazine | 27

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Inmarsat unveils the communications network of the future

By MySecurity Media

28 | Australia in Space Magazine

I

nmarsat has unveiled plans for ORCHESTRA, which will bring together existing geosynchronous (GEO) satellites with low earth orbit satellites (LEO) and terrestrial 5G into an integrated, high-performance solution.

Whether for a ship in a crowded port, an aircraft preparing to land at LAX, or a defence force deployed in a remote location, ORCHESTRA is designed to meet evolving connectivity needs in the mobility market with a service unmatched by any competitor offering, planned or in existence.

“An orchestra brings different instruments together, each supporting the other and playing its role in the masterpiece. We’re building ORCHESTRA on the same concept,” said Rajeev Suri, CEO of Inmarsat. “By combining the distinct qualities of GEO, LEO and 5G into a single network, we will deliver a service that is far greater than the sum of its parts. Our customers will benefit from dramatically expanded high throughput services around the world. This is the future of connectivity and Inmarsat is perfectly positioned to bring it to the world with its proven

technology expertise, right base of customers and partners, and financial strength.”

ORCHESTRA will open up a host of new and previously unattainable possibilities for industries across the world. New services include close-shore navigation for autonomous vessels, next-generation emergency safety services for maritime crews, secure and tactical private networks for governments and direct-to-cloud connections for airlines. New segments set to benefit from ORCHESTRA include energy rigs and drilling platforms, mid-market business aircraft, coastal vessels, smart passenger ships and urban air mobility.

ORCHESTRA is unique because it draws together the benefits of multiple technologies to create one cohesive solution. LEO, GEO and terrestrial networks have never been combined at scale before to create a unified connectivity service for mobility customers. The result is a ‘dynamic mesh network’ that will deliver high-performance connectivity everywhere. Bringing together the lowest average latency and fastest average speeds with unique

resilience, ORCHESTRA will eliminate the industry-wide challenge of congested network ‘hot spots’.

Inmarsat’s existing GEO satellites – both GX and L-band – will continue to provide global coverage, high performance, security and resilience. Terrestrial 5G adds ultra-high capacity in busy ‘hot spots’, such as ports, airports, and sea canals. A small constellation of LEO satellites will layer additional high capacity over further high-demand areas such as oceanic flight corridors. As a result, the network will offer the highest capacity for mobility users worldwide, and at ‘hot spots’.

The network will benefit from ‘dynamic mesh’ technology, which allows individual customer terminals to direct traffic to and from other customer terminals. This means that a ship within reach of a 5G ground station can receive ample capacity for its own needs as well as route capacity onwards to other vessels beyond terrestrial reach.

This effectively creates a mobile web of terminals that extend the network’s reach and improve its performance and resilience.

“ORCHESTRA ensures Inmarsat is well positioned to deliver long-term, profitable growth by delivering new services to existing customers, targeting near-adjacent market segments, and maintaining a strong competitive position,” said Suri. “We have a record of adopting the right technology at the right time. We plan to focus initially on delivering the ORCHESTRA terrestrial network, while preparing for a future LEO constellation in the range of 150175 satellites. This is a highly cost-effective approach that leverages Inmarsat’s leading GEO satellite networks as part of ORCHESTRA’s unique multi-layer architecture.”

The new approach means that Inmarsat can easily boost capacity in high-density areas such as ports and airports, ensuring customer needs continue to be met well into the future with capacity scaled directly to match their requirements. The initial five-year (2021-2026) total investment for ORCHESTRA is expected to be in the order of $100m.

Australia in Space Magazine | 29

FROM DEEP SEA TO SPACE. MISSIONS DELIVERED...

ANYWHERE. As a key partner of the Australian Space Agency (ASA), and with the support of the Western Australian Government, Fugro is proud to be part of the future of the Australian exploration and remote operations industry. Fugro will design, build and operate the Australian Space Automation, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Control Complex (SpAARC).

To find out more www.fugro.com 30 | Australia in Space Magazine

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Defence testing world first tech in Space By MySecurity Media

T

he Australian Head of Air Force Capability, Air ViceMarshal Cath Roberts, and the Director General Air Defence and Space, Air Commodore Philip Gordon, have announced the next phase of the Australian M2 satellite mission, a collaboration between the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Canberra Space and the Royal Australian Air Force.

“This collaboration allows small satellites to be used for evaluation of technologies that may eventually be placed onto more complex space systems, such as large communications or earth observation satellites,” Air ViceMarshal Roberts said.

The M2 mission has been orbiting the globe since being launched in New Zealand by Rocket Lab in March. Now UNSW Canberra has conducted a controlled separation of M2 into two smaller cube satellites (CubeSat), M2A and M2B, enabling planned research into formation flying, satellite control mechanisms, maritime surveillance, space domain awareness, and inter-satellite communications.

Air Vice-Marshal Cath Roberts said the M2 mission is Australia’s most complex CubeSat mission.

“The initiation of formation flying is a landmark moment for the Defence Space Domain. This allows testing of satellite separation mechanisms and facilitates on-orbit research. The two satellites are packed with payloads such as optical telescopes which are informing future Defence

surveillance concepts.

“In a world first, M2 is carrying the first neuromorphic cameras to be placed into orbit. Western Sydney University’s International Centre for Neuromorphic Systems (ICNS) leads development of these biology-inspired event-based cameras, delivering advanced capability for tracking small and fast moving objects,” Air Vice-Marshal Roberts said.

The UNSW Canberra Space team also achieved an Australian first, performing in-space artificial intelligence inferencing using on-board computing. This represents a significant step towards developing intelligent, networked satellite constellation technologies.

M2A and M2B will be able to communicate with each other as well as ground stations on earth, giving better quality data, with greater detail and less lag time.

Air Commodore Philip Gordon said UNSW Canberra Space engaged with a supply chain of approximately 30 Australian companies and organisations for the M2 satellite mission.

“M2 is not only significant for Defence’s Space Domain, but also for advancing Australia’s burgeoning space industry. This is an example of the world-class space capabilities on offer by Australian industry and academia – showcasing their depth of talent, ingenuity and collaborative spirit,” Air Commodore Gordon said.

Australia 31 Australia in in Space Space Magazine Magazine || 31

AUSTRALIA SPACE

Sydney University joins the hunt for habitable planets

By MySecurity Media

32 | Australia in Space Magazine

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ydney University’s Institute for Astronomy is partnering with California’s Breakthrough Initiatives, Saber Astronautics, and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory to search for habitable planets around Alpha Centauri, our nearest star system.

The proposed telescope project, named TOLIMAN, will scour the so-called Goldilocks zone just over four lightyears away from Earth. Scientists believe temperatures on potential rocky planets there could allow for liquid surface water.

“Getting to know our planetary neighbours is hugely important,” said Project leader Professor Peter Tuthill from the Sydney Institute for Astronomy at the University of Sydney.

“These next-door planets are the ones where we have the best prospects for finding and analysing atmospheres, surface chemistry and possibly even the fingerprints of a biosphere – the tentative signals of life.”

Alpha Centauri is a triple star with two stars very like our Sun. The team believes either or both may host temperate planets. The third star, the red dwarf called Proxima Centauri, is already thought to have one planet in a Goldilocks orbit.

The proposed TOLIMAN space telescope will use a new telescope mirror pattern known as a diffractive pupil.

Rather than concentrating the starlight into a tight focused beam as is usually done for optical systems, TOLIMAN has a strongly featured pattern.

This pattern will spread starlight into a complex flower pattern that makes it easier to register the fine measurement details required to detect the small wobbles a planet would make in the star’s motion.

Green blue planet The project has received seed funding from the

AUSTRALIA SPACE

Breakthrough Initiatives as well as funding from the Australian Government’s International Space Investment Expand Capability Grants program. The Breakthrough Initiative funds scientific and technological programs searching for extra-terrestrial life.

“These nearby planets are where humanity will take our first steps into interstellar space using high-speed, futuristic, robotic probes,” said Breakthrough’s Pete Klupar.

“If we consider the nearest few dozen stars, we expect a handful of rocky planets like Earth orbiting at the right distance for liquid surface water to be possible.”

Professor Tuthill says TOLIMAN is a challenging project.

To get to Alpha Centauri in an existing space vehicle would take 100,000 years. He calls TOLIMAN a visionary project that lays the groundwork for possible future interstellar voyages.

“Our plan is for an agile, low-cost mission that delivers results by about the middle of the decade,” Professor

Tuthill says.

Eduardo Bendek from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory agrees finding new pl anets is hard, but the new technology behind the proposed TOLIMAN telescope may give the team an edge. Dr Bendek says the telescope will make extremely fine measurements of the position of the star.

“If there is a planet orbiting the star, it will tug on the star betraying a tiny, but measurable, wobble. The signal we are looking for requires a real leap in precision measurement.”

The seed funding has enabled the construction of the TOLIMAN telescope to start. The team hopes to launch it into near-earth orbit in 2023.

Australia in Space Magazine | 33

INTERNATIONAL SPACE

By MySecurity Media

34 | Australia in Space Magazine

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ockheed Martin has appointed former Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) Chief of Joint Capabilities, Air Marshal (Retd) Warren McDonald AO, CSC as Chief Executive of Lockheed Martin Australia and New Zealand (LMANZ).

Following a career of more than 40 years with the RAAF, Mr. McDonald joined the leadership team of LMANZ in May of 2021 and assumes the role of Chief Executive effective immediately.

Mr. McDonald reports to Ray Piselli, Vice President International Business, Lockheed Martin Global Business Development.

Confirming the appointment, Mr. Piselli highlighted Mr. McDonald’s distinguished service career including his contribution to the development of a more integrated, networked defence force for Australia.

“As the RAAF’s inaugural Chief of Joint Capabilities, Warren brings an unrivalled understanding of the superior all-domain capabilities necessary to meet the evolving challenges of the 21st Century battlespace,” he said.

“Warren’s appointment reiterates Lockheed Martin’s commitment to develop and advance the critical capabilities our customers will need to remain ahead of their adversaries and defend their national interests.”

Commenting on his appointment as LMANZ Chief Executive, Mr. McDonald said he is committed to ensuring

Lockheed Martin appoints former RAAF Chief as new CEO

LMANZ’s focus remains firmly on the needs of its customers through excellence in program delivery and sustainment.

“Lockheed Martin Australia and New Zealand has a proud heritage of excellence in program delivery and sustainment and I look forward to working with the team and our local industry partners to further contribute to that legacy on both sides of the Tasman,” he said.

“Lockheed Martin’s innovative technologies are at the heart of our customers’ defence capabilities and we have a responsibility to ensure that superior combat power is available whenever and wherever it is needed.”

As well as confirming Mr McDonald’s appointment, Mr. Piselli commended the achievements of the former LMANZ Chief Executive, Joe North.

“Joe has done a remarkable job, first as the Vice President of Rotary Mission Systems Operations for Australia and New Zealand and, most recently, as the LMANZ Chief Executive,” he said.

“The strength of LMANZ’s position in the market as a defence capability steward and an enabler of manufacturing sector transformation is a testament to his leadership, the deep relationships he has cultivated with our industry partners and his determination to deliver for our customers.”

Mr. North and his family will return to the US with a new role to be announced in the future.

Episode 288 – AUSTRALIA’S HISTORIC TOP TWO SPOT IN THE ‘ROBOT OLYMPICS'

Dr Navinda Kottege CSIRO’s Robotics group leader After 3 years it came down to just seconds! Interview with Leader of team CSIRO’s Data61 and CSIRO’s Robotics group leader, Dr Navinda Kottege.

Robotics experts led by Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, have beaten teams from NASA JPL/MIT, California Institute of Technology, and Carnegie Mellon University to claim second place in a world leading robotics competition dubbed the ‘Robot Olympics’.

underground environment that simulated a real-world scenario. This included locating models representing lost or injured humans, backpacks, or phones, as well as variable conditions such as pockets of gas.

The $US1 million ($AUD1.3) prize money will be reinvested into team CSIRO’s Data61’s research and development of Australian technology.

00:00

00:00

Organised by the US Government research agency DARPA and spanning a three-year-period, the Subterranean Challenge was designed to push the boundaries of autonomous robotic technology. Scientists were tasked with remotely running the robots in an

LISTEN HERE Riskin Leaders Magazine || 35 35 Australia Space Magazine w w w . d r a s t i c n e w s . c oSPACE m MAGAZINE SPECIAL | Cyber

AUSTRALIA SPACE

Australian rocket tests satellite cyber security on home soil

BITSCore CEO Dr David Hyland-Wood with the rocket that will take his cyber-security payload to almost 30,000 feet

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ITSCore has successfully tested two sets of software algorithms on a sub-orbital rocket launched in Queensland, Australia, just a week after testing them on the International Space Station.

The software will help providers to upgrade onboard satellite cyber security as they join the 5G network and allow satellite customers to request “ride-share” tasking from satellite operators.

BITSCore CEO Dr David Hyland-Wood said the advent of 5G had brought home to the satellite industry the need for new cybersecurity measures to help guarantee their security.

“5G has been a wake-up call for satellite operators everywhere, as they come to understand the need for making sure their satellites, some of which may have been in space for several years, need cyber security assurance,” Dr Hyland-Wood said.

“In recent weeks we did some preliminary tests on the International Space station (ISS), and now we have tested in the harsh environment of a rocket launch,” he said.

“We put the software on a board as physical payload and tested our communications, using internet protocols to exercise our authorisation system.”

This latest SONAR mission (‘Snakes on a Rocket’, named after its Python programming language) test confirms the technology has reached Technology Readiness Level 6

(TRL 6) – system prototype demonstration in a relevant environment.

Also tested in the Black Sky Aerospace rocket was an algorithm which will allow satellite customers to alert operators of task requirements, and operators to pick up those tasks in a ride-share arrangement.

The tasking might include earth observation, communications, navigation, surveillance or monitoring the weather.

The launch took place on one of Black Sky’s outback Queensland space launch sites. The flight reached speeds almost twice the speed of sound and altitude of almost 30,000 feet in about 10 seconds.

Dr Hyland-Wood said that following the successful ISS and rocket launch tests, the next step was to test them in a military exercise environment, followed by continued testing on the ISS. BITSCore Pty Ltd (bits-core.com) is an Australian cybersecurity company providing unique and powerful distributed computing solutions utilising patented and patent-pending technologies. These include satellite command and control, provably secure data storage, and advanced command authorisation services.

BITSCore is headquartered in Queensland and serves governments and corporations in countries allied with Australia.

36 | Australia in Space Magazine

By MySecurity Media

WATCH THIS SPACE IN 2022 TALK TO US ABOUT SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

Australia in Magazine || 37 37 Australia in Space Space Magazine

AUSTRALIA SPACE

Missile strike on Russian satellite threatens safety of the International Space Station

By MySecurity Media

38 | Australia in Space Magazine

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ussia destroyed a 39-year-old satellite with a missile strike on Monday, November 15. The explosion left a trail of debris in orbit, threatened the International Space Station (ISS), and raised strong reactions from the US and EU. Monday’s anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon test destroyed the KOSMOS 1408 low orbit satellite launched in 1982.

Weighing just under two tonnes, the satellite tracked radio signals from Earth. However, KOSMOS 1408 has passed its use-by-date.

Russia reportedly launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome approximately 800 kilometres north of Moscow, using the A-235 / PL-19 Nudol ASAT system.

Government and private space agencies tracked the missile to the position of KOSMOS 1408, some 480 kilometres above Earth. Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, later confirmed the strike.

Roscosmos chief, Dmitry Rogozin, also confirmed on social

media he debriefed NASA’s Bill Nelson the following day.

The satellite’s destruction, the first since India shot down one of its satellites in 2019, leaves around 1,500 pieces of trackable debris in space and countless more untrackable pieces.

The explosion forced the crew of the ISS to retreat to their docked escape capsules while passing through the debris field. Onboard the ISS are seven astronauts from the US, Russia, and Germany.

It takes the ISS 90 minutes to complete one orbit of Earth. The astronauts stayed in the escape capsules long enough for the ISS to twice pass through the debris field.

The debris field also potentially posed a risk to China’s taikonauts aboard the Tiangong space station.

But Russia claimed the missile strike did not pose any threat to space activity. However, the US and EU disagreed.

“This test will significantly increase the risk to astronauts and cosmonauts on the International Space

'The test has so far generated 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations'

Station, as well as other human spaceflight activities,” said US State Department spokesperson Ned Price on Tuesday.

“The test has so far generated 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations.”

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson also condemned the destruction of KOSMOS 1408. In a statement, he called the missile strike an irresponsible and destabilising action.

Confirming the US crew on the ISS sheltered in escape capsules for the second and third passes through the debris field, he said all nations had a responsibility to prevent the deliberate creation of space debris from ASATs. The EU’s Thierry Breton lined up with the US to criticise the missile strike.

“As European Union Commissioner in charge of EU space policy and in particular of Galileo and Copernicus, I join the strongest condemnations against the test

conducted by Russia,” he said.

Space agencies can to track debris roughly the size of a tennis ball or larger. But colliding with even the smallest untrackable piece of debris can damage satellites and crewed space stations.

“The debris created by Russia’s DA-ASAT will continue to pose a threat to activities in outer space for years to come, putting satellites and space missions at risk, as well as forcing more collision avoidance manoeuvres,” said General James Dickinson, head of US Space Command.

Experts estimate it will take a decade for the debris field created by the KOSMOS 1408 explosion to clear up completely.

Australia 39 Australia in in Space Space Magazine Magazine || 39

AUSTRALIA SPACE

The mid-level space power

By Dr Chris Flaherty My Space Warfare Analysis Lab

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his concept paper will look at the notion of the Mid-Level Space Power, answering the question – what type of Space Force would it have? The notion of a Mid-Level Space Power, presupposes a hierarchy of Space Powers are emerging in the current century. These entities, can be characterized along two tangents: (1) Either a Space Superpower, Space Power, or Space User; and as well, (2) Characterized by either pursuing Militarization, or Weaponization of Space Strategies.

TABLE 1: The Mid-Level Space Force likely sits, given the examples of others created in the last three years by the non-Superpowers, as a Defence Agency, Regiment, or Squadron level military entity. Framing the creation of a new Mid-Level Space Force is its HistoricalTechnological Contexts. It is being created in the context of an approximate six-decades into the Space Warfare Age. There are far-more-older Space Forces, that have, or are in the process of a rapid technological transition from Space Warfare concepts dominated by Electronic and Cyber Warfare, and various types of Kinetic Warfare, to Space Manoeuvre Warfare – as these Forces have access to Interplanetary Spacecraft. The key distinction to emerge is a Terrestrial-Based Space Force (a Mid-Level entrant), and a true Interplanetary Space Force. This is also part of an anticipated process where the Space Forces, belong to a class of Space Superpowers, that convert into Solar System Powers (this prospect is explored at the end of this paper).

40 | Australia in Space Magazine

At the top of the Space Powers hierarchy are Space Superpowers, dominating the Space Race, since the beginning of the Space Age, following the end of WW2.

In the last decade, other entrants to Space, have been able to build Space launching capabilities, and satellite construction, and make military use of Space, accessing the Space Tactical Layer (addressed later in this paper), and likely Space Manoeuvre Layers: Suborbital, Low and Medium Earth Orbits, Cislunar, and Mars Space. This area will also be covered later in this paper.

MILITARIZATION AND WEAPONIZATION OF SPACE The dynamic of Space Power also divides between opponents who opt for Weaponization over a solely Militarization of Space Strategy. Under current International Space Laws regime, a Space Power opting for its basis of power – the Weaponization of Space, puts it outside the International System, if this is used for non-defensive purposes. This latter development, comes from a largely expanded notion of a ‘Right to Defend in Space’. One of the historical predicaments of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, was that it did not preclude the Militarization of Space, through broadly banning the stationing of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Outer Space, and prohibition of military activities on celestial bodies (United Nations). This has even seen creation of a legal regime on the International Space Law applicable to military uses of Outer Space

AUSTRALIA SPACE

Australia 41 Australia in in Space Space Magazine Magazine || 41

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HIERARCHY OF SPACE POWERS

SPACE SUPER-POWER

MILITARIZATION

WEAPONIZATION

Spacefaring Nation with an

Satellites support terrestrial mili-

Operates Offensive Warfare Capabilities:

advanced Space Industry, and

tary operations. Satellites used for:

Satellite Kill Vehicle.

extensive use of Space-Based

GPS/Navigation.

Armed Spacecraft.

Infrastructure.

Communications.

Armed Space Station.

Visited the Moon, Mars and sent

Intelligence.

Terrestrial-Based Force capable of attacking:

exploration probes into the Solar

Surveillance.

System, and beyond.

Reconnaissance.

Space-Based Infrastructure.

Operates a Space Station.

Operates Defensive Electronic

Opponent Spacecraft-Satellites, and Space

Its Space Force operates a Space

and Cyber Warfare Capabilities

Stations.

Fleet of Spacecraft-Satellites.

that encompass the Space-Based Infrastructure.

SPACE POWER

A country with a small scale Space

Terrestrial-Based Force Capable of Attacking

Industry. Builds Space launching

Space-Based Infrastructure with:

rockets. Building its own Space-

ASATs.

Based Infrastructure. Maintains a

Laser Batteries.

Space Defence Organisation that

Electronic and Cyber Attack Capabilities.

monitors Space National Interests.

Reliant on Allies, and Commercial Partners. Largely uses the existing open-access Space-Based InfraSPACE USER

structure, such as GPS, Internet,

NO ABILITY

NO ABILITY

and Communications. Likely has a Governmental entity-agency promoting access to Space.

▲ FIGURE 1: Outlines the four (and a new fifth) set of frames of reference, that largely constrain emergence of a Mid-Level Space Power, namely: (1) Technological, (2) Historical, (3) Weaponization, (4) Militarization, and (5) the Right to Defend.”

in peacetime (Crockett, 2012; McGill, 2016). Since 2020, there has been an exponential increase in the pace of Space activity. Increasing commercial use of Space, has raised the prospect of large numbers of Humans and Robots in Space, and expansive portfolio of Space-Base economic and scientific objects. A real possibility is the need to protect Critical Space-Based Infrastructure. A SUBORBITAL SPACE WARFARE Strategic Missile Force

potentially, massive surge of Human and Robotic activity in Low and Medium Earth Orbits, Cislunar, and Mars Space, will lead to a corresponding transformation in Space Military Technology raising the practical need for a type of patrolling and policing in Space. Potentially this will require using defensive weapons to protect legitimate Space activity, operating in accordance with International

USING EARTH’S SATELLITE LAYER

Ballistic Missile Early Warn-

Satellite-Based Naviga-

ing System

tion and Communications Support

Protecting National Satellites

SPACE MANOEUVRE Controlling Space Launch

Operating a Fleet of

Capabilities

Satellite-Spacecraft

▲ TABLE 2: Space Force’s roles and functions along a Technology Spectrum.

42 | Australia in Space Magazine

Space Laws. Revealing a pattern of constant oscillation between Militarization and Weaponization of Space, which will dominate Space Relations. A further expansion of the concept of legitimate (legal) Weaponization of Space is that of Planetary Defence (discussed at the end of this paper).

FIGURE 1: The scope of this paper will look at a notional Mid-Level Space Force, if created this year. It would sit within a set of four (and a new fifth) frames of reference – these are a specific historical and technological context.

If created in the current historical timeframe – given that over the last three years 2019-2021, a number of Space Forces have been created, either belong to one of the Superpowers, or are likely to be classed as Mid-Level Space Forces, several distinctions are beginning to emerge.

This paper will look at four themes: (1) Emergence of Space Forces; (2) The Notional Mid-Level Space Force; (3) Earth’s Satellite Layer; and, (4) Space Manoeuvre. The paper ends with an overview of the likely future direction of Superpower Space Forces, and Planetary Defence. This final part is intended to look at a further framing-constraint on the scope of a Mid-Level Space Force, which will remain largely a Terrestrial-Based entity, in comparison to the likely future shape of the Space Superpowers’ Space Forces, which will radically transform into the dominant military forces of the emerging Solar System Powers, that will operate well beyond the Earth, occupying the Earth’s Moon, Mars, the Asteroid Belt, and several other worlds within the Solar System. This transformation can be anticipated to occur with a coming revolution in Interplanetary Spacecraft construction.

EMERGENCE OF SPACE FORCES Currently, only the United States has actually established a true independent Space Force as a separate service (2019). Its origins date back to 1982, with the formation of the U.S. Air Force Space Command. So far, the U.S. Space Force, is the only service to conceptualize a Satellite as its current Spacecraft, composing its Space Fleet (U.S. Space Force, 2020). Depending on how a Space Force is defined, among the oldest of the Space Forces, is the VKS (Russian Space Forces), established in 1992 (Federation of American Scientists, 1997). This Space Force, has been responsible for the operation of Cosmodromes, military Space engineering, the Scientific Research Institute on Space Technology, and the Space command, control, and tracking system.

Departing from the U.S. and Soviet-Russian examples, a number of other types of Space Forces are known, and each can be situated along a Space Technology Spectrum.

The Aerospace Force: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has developed as a largely strategic missile force (Langton, 2007). It is converting over to Space-launching technology, that in 2020 formally announced itself as a Space Command (Spacewatch Global, 2020). The recent formed United Kingdom Space Command, is a Joint Command staffed from the Royal Navy, British Army, Royal Air Force and the Civil Service (Ministry of Defence). The UK Space Force provides command and control of all its nation’s Defence Space Capabilities, including the UK Space Operations Centre, SKYNET Satellite Communications, RAF

Fylingdales: radar base. The UK Space Force – Command, is also part of the Ballistic Missile Early Warning System, and other enabling capabilities within the United Kingdom’s Defence Capability Portfolio. In the case of Japan, its Space Operations Squadron, is part of the Air Self-Defense Force.

Its role is mainly to monitor and protect Japanese satellites from enemy attacks or Space debris (Yamaguchi, 2020).

The Japanese Squadron, will also conduct satellite-based navigation and communications for other troops in the field.

TABLE 2: As can be seen from these few examples: Iranian, United Kingdom, and Japanese, that can be currently characterized as Mid-Level Space Forces, these all play a number of roles and functions in relation to Space. These also potentially fall into a dynamic range of Militarized, and Weaponized Technology Spectrum, that also falls into three broad categories of activity: Suborbital Space Warfare, Using Earth’s Satellite Layer, and Space Manoeuvre.

Beginning with the start of the Space Warfare Age, the utilization of the Suborbital Layer above the Earth’s Surface, became synonymous with the passage of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. The counter-force for this was Early Warning. The technology spectrum also reflects an historical transition, and transformation, in tacticalstrategic weapons technology and thinking following WW2, where the Superpowers and their Allies, built increasingly complex and sophisticated Strategic Missile Forces, and Early Warning Systems. These systems largely dominated the original Suborbital layer above the surface of the Earth.

The notion of Earth circumnavigation entered into tactical-strategic thinking, in the mid-to-late 1950s, with the growing use of satellite surveillance, and until it was banned by a regime of international treaties, the notion of a Spaceplane-Bomber, or an Orbital Battle Station.

Even though one did exist in direct contravention of the existing treaties: the Soviet Cannon Armed Salyut-3: OPS-2 (Almaz-2), around 1975. This trend continued after 1975, with the Soviet Rocket Armed OPS-4, and Polyus Laser (that were not launched). Since the early 1990s, the Earth’s Satellite Layer (discussed later in this paper) emerged, and its military use led to the well-known declaration by Air Force Chief of Staff Merrill A. ‘Tony’ McPeak that the Persian Gulf War had been, “the first Space war.” (Bruger, 1995) Use of Space-Based Infrastructure that carries communications, navigational and surveillance capabilities, has largely solidified the concept of occupying the Space High-Ground; as it was originally conceived in the early-to-mid 1950s (Boushey, 1958; Sambaluk, 2011); and which still has the same currency: “Space has been characterized as ‘the ultimate high ground.’ Orbiting the Earth in 90 minutes … [Low Earth Orbit] … satellites have fields of view spanning hundreds of miles. Geosynchronous Earth Orbit … satellites can view 42% of the Earth’s surface area. Space affords a global vantage point from which to assess large swaths of the land, oceans, and air for strategic-, operational-, and tactical-level applications.” (Joint Publication 3-14) The question of the roles and functions, and where along a technology spectrum does a notional Mid-Level Space Force sit, will be addressed in the next portion of

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AUSTRALIA SPACE

"In 2019, military expenditure by the United States amounted to over threepercent of its Gross Domestic Product, amounting to $732 Billion USD"

▲ FIGURE 2: The greatest orbital debris populations exist mainly in the Geosynchronous region, and concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere (NASA, 2005).”

this paper.

THE NOTIONAL MID-LEVEL SPACE FORCE A notional Mid-Level Space Force effectively sits within two historical-technological frames of reference: (1

) Military use of the Space Infrastructure is well established, and now some three-to-four decades old; and, (2) It is also a form of conflict that has been largely defined by Electronic and Cyber Warfare Concepts.

From the perspective of the Mid-Level Space Force, its primary military role will continue to operate in the Electronic and Cyber Warfare fields, focused on protecting its nation’s access to its Space-Based Infrastructure; that in all likelihood, will start to fall under various National Security concepts of National Critical Infrastructure.

However, the pace of Space technology in the last decade is beginning a new set of possibilities, in the realm of Space Manoeuvre, that even a largely Terrestrial-Based, Mid-Level Space Force can exploit.

Space Manoeuvre from the perspective of a traditional Space Superpower, has been historically established by its ability to send Spacecraft, with Humans, or Robots to other Planets and Moons in the Solar System. In the case of the

44 | Australia in Space Magazine

Mid-Level Space Force, it will likely begin as a TerrestrialBased entity, operating from the ground, sea or airspace in support of its own military forces, not unlike a current LandBased Air Defence Regiment. Its national Space Industry may be nascent. It may be developing the capacity to launch a rocket in Suborbital or Low Earth Orbit, and place a microsatellite. The capacity to build a rocket, does not necessarily mean a large-scale vehicle capable of multi-ton lifts. A new generation of micro, and small rockets, nine to some 25 metres tall, that can carry a few satellites at a time, with a payload capacity of one, up to 500 kilograms into Low Earth Orbit are increasingly available. Launching these rockets can have a high level of mobility. A small rocket-vehicle delivering small payloads into Suborbital and Low Earth Orbit can be fired from a truck flatbed. The same mobility can be transferred to a ship for vertical launching, or aircraft using horizontal launch (air launch to orbit) technology, taking-off from an airport. It is anticipated, the same technology will be able to launch a Spaceplane, to access Space, that can return-land on a standard airport runway.

Mobility and Space Manoeuvre will be discussed next.

SPACE WARFARE CONCEPTS Notionally, Space Warfare is largely dominated by Electronic and Cyber Warfare Concepts, that has rapidly expanded into the Earth’s Satellite Layer (discussed next

in this paper) following the 1991 Persian Gulf War. That saw, the United States make first major use of Military-use satellites to support ground, and air-based manoeuvre.

This advancement, has since seen an upswing in weapons technology to destroy, capture or deny satellite access to an opponent. It can also be argued a new form of Space Warfare Manoeuvre is rapidly emerging. The U.S. Space Force, now sees greater orbital manoeuvre possibilities for its fleet of ground-controlled Spaceships-Satellites being able to change orbits (within their Delta-V limitations – how much fuel is carried). Other developments, have been kill-vehicle technology: ground-launched, or larger carrier satellites, that can deploy others; anti-satellite missiles (ASATs); and, ground-based laser batteries. The next major frontier is the rapid domination of the immediate tactical layer of Space. The latter, a zone of Space above the conventional battlefield, will likely see development of mobile ground launch batteries of small-payload rockets (that are reusable) that can put into Suborbital, and Low Earth Orbit a constellation of micro-satellites, to direct terrestrial forces, and jam-deny-spoof opposition satellites.

For instance, in the case of the U.S. Space Force: “Among its major capabilities, the Space Force needs the ability to quickly launch payloads into their desired orbits and Starship could play an important role in performing that mission. But that need can also be met better by other systems.

Recently, the Space Force demonstrated its ability to rapidly put satellites into orbit by using the air-launched Pegasus rocket. That rocket has a critical advantage over Starship: While Starship can currently only launch from two locations – Boca Chica, Texas, and Cape Canaveral, Florida – Pegasus can already be launched from a number of locations worldwide.” (Reesman, 2021) The ability to ‘grab’ immediate tactical dominance utilizing micro- to small rockets, that can launch a range of satellites ranging in classes, from CubeSats to the under 500 kilogram class, from any location on the Earth’s surface using mobile launch capabilities: air-launch, sea-launch, truck flatbeds, and Stratospheric Balloon – Rockoon (rocket and balloon), a Mid-Level Space Force is not precluded from accessing Militarized Space. It can operate Defensive Electronic and Cyber Warfare Capabilities, and protect its Space-Based Infrastructure, or rapidbuild new infrastructure that is operational or campaign specific. Significantly, both a Mid-Level, and Superpower’s Space Forces can share the same scale-of-effort in this respect. A major asymmetric threat is the ability of a Mid-Level Space Force developing Space Weaponization capabilities. These are likely to fall into the same kinetic – non-kinetic range of weapons options (Harrison, 2021).

However, rather than pursue Satellite-Based options, like a Space Superpower’s Space Force, the likely demarcation, will be greater access to ASATs. Semi-mobile surface based Laser battery to dazzle and blind an overhead satellite will also be seen as a likely option for the Mid-Level Space Force.

It is theoretically possible, to control a favoured orbit – simply by filling it with a large number of your own satellites: this constitutes a defacto occupation of a portion of Space. We also have emergence of a concept of microtactical support satellites, launched from mobile land and sea batteries, by small rockets able to reach Suborbital and Low Earth Orbit to immediately support a tactical operation – this will be looked at next in the context of Earth’s Satellite Layer.

EARTH’S SATELLITE LAYER The Earth’s Satellite Layer is an artificial piece of Space geography. Currently, a considerable problem, its composition of crowded orbits increasingly cluttered with dead and defunct craft, and debris; that is expected to increase its density dramatically this Century taking-on many of the characteristics of a natural-formed accretion disk, such as Saturn’s rings.

FIGURE 2: The Earth’s Satellite Layer is an artificial layer of Human-made materials that visibly orbit our Planet.

Approximately 95% of the objects are orbital debris: not functional satellites. The Satellite Layer can be notionally treated as a type of artificial Space geography, which is an extension of the much broader notion of, “treating the Space environment as just another geography.” (Dolman, 2002) Space geography consists of gravity, orbits, military lanes and lines. It can be viewed from two perspectives: the perspective from Earth’s Surface, and the perspective from a point in Space, “[that]… emphasizes orbits, regions of Space, and launch points as geopolitically vital assets over which states can be expected competitively and strategically to struggle for control.” (Havercroft, 2009) As a strategically competitive layer in Space, the Satellite Layer as a piece of artificial geography is composed of objects, and also clutter; and that clutter, places restrictions on potential orbital dynamics. This tactical-strategic notion has been recently expressed in terms of, “the concept of inhibiting movement needs to be perceived through the lens of orbital dynamics.” (Betar, 2021) The significance of this relationship in relation to Space Manoeuvre, is largely one of inhibited and restricted options.

The concept of Space Manoeuvre will be looked at next.

SPACE MANOEUVRE Space Manoeuvre has two elements in relation to the Satellite Layer: (1) Terrestrial Manoeuvre in relation to Space i.e. putting yourself in a good position to launch; and, (2) Manoeuvre in orbit – which is constrained by how an object moves in Space. It is in orbit, but must also expend energy to move – avoid, rotate, slow, that is constrained by a crafts’ Delta-V. The final element of Space Manoeuvre (its Third Axis) is that we are on a Planet itself rotating on its axis, and there is a relationship between an orbiting object, and a point on the Terrestrial Surface – it comes into view, and moves from view. This brings into consideration the concept of two spherical planes constantly rotating, one rotating within another. As well, the outer sphere has a defined

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▲ A Starship reduces speed, to dock with the DSDS1 ‘Valley Forge’. Satellites offer the first line of defence. In the background a Starship is propelled by a Drone Nuclear Propulsion Tug. Another Tug comes-in for refuelling.

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geography: the Earth’s Satellite Layer, that has a set of constraints – orbits are crowded-out, others are dominated etc. Orbital crowding largely constrains manoeuvre opportunities within an orbit, or moving to another one, in the case of rendezvous and proximity operations between craft in Space (Samson, 2021). One of the significant problems faced by a Space Force, would be dealing with kinetic Earth-to-Space weapons, as these can produce debris that can affect the safe operation of other satellites in affected orbits (Harrison, 2021).

The ability to achieve Space Manoeuvre in relation to a Terrestrial-Based Space Force, is expressed in terms of the capacity to launch a tactical level satellite. Whereas, in the case of a true Space-Based Space Force, that operates a Space Fleet of Spacecraft-Satellites, Human or Robotically crewed Spaceplanes, Orbital Battle Stations or Interplanetary Spacecraft, then Space Manoeuvre is defined in terms of the ability to harness orbital flight-paths. At the current level of technology, an orbit-shift of a SpacecraftSatellite is subject to the limitations imposed by time, as it can require deliberate planning, manoeuvring for days, if not weeks or months, beforehand to get into position to have meaningful operational effects (Reesman, 2020). The central notion is that manoeuvre undertaken by a Space Force, occurs in each of the three Space-System Segments: Space, Link, and Ground (Joint Publication 3-14). In the context of Space Manoeuvring, “[it]… involves the movement of a Spacecraft from one orbit with its inherent characteristics (period, shape, orientation) to another unique orbit.” (Joint Publication 3-14) In the case of a Mid-Level Space Force, its ability to fully exploit Space Manoeuvre may be significantly lesser, than a more advance Space Force, that operates SpacecraftSatellites, as these vehicles have already been designed with a much greater Delta-V capacity, than say a microsatellite launched into the immediate Space above, in order to achieve rapid tactical advantage, such as gaining deeper area sensing, rapid targeting and battlefield situational awareness. Notionally called – the Tactical Space Layer, technology projects such as these are seeking to vastly

improve: positioning, navigation and timing, through accessing satellites in Low Earth Orbit to give a soldier located on the Ground Segment dedicated surveillance, navigation and imaging capabilities that can enable long range precision fires and ground manoeuvres in GPSchallenged environment; that is to say where access to GPS may be denied (Erwin, 2021).

As a basic proposition if you, “recognise Space as a full operational Warfighting Domain” (U.S. Space Force, 2020; Davis, 2021), this plays-out very differently, as technology changes the emphasis between Space and Ground Segments. The question, for a Mid-Level Space Force – is how it will operate in Space? In regards to the problem of achieving Space Manoeuvre, this in relation to the Ground Segment, refers to Terrestrial-Based units communicating with satellites and to other Space forces, that are essentially: “deployable mobile systems and alternate backup locations provide redundancy by moving to geographically dispersed locations, should primary locations become disabled.” (Joint Publication 3-14) The greater emphasis placed on the Ground Segment, is a direct consequence of the lack of access to larger and more manoeuvrable satellite technology, and the launching capability to put heavier payloads in Space.

It should also be noted, that as the more advanced Space Forces increase their access to Space, the notion of greater-unlimited Spacecraft-Satellite refuellingreplenishing Delta-V capacity, and hence manoeuvrability in Space becomes a reality. The emphasis in the case of a true Space-Based Space Force, is the Space Segment, over the Ground Segment.

The argument that can be made, is that as a Mid-Level Space Force would almost be completely Terrestrial-Based, then in terms of its understanding of Space Manoeuvre, and how this is tactically-strategically exploited, the main emphasis is on that force having the greatest land, sea and air manoeuvre capacity possible, in order to survive on an increasingly lethal battlefield. It also means that a Mid-Level Space Force, would likely have a quite different appearance from a more advanced Space Force, that is developing into a military that actually exists in Space, rather than being a conglomerate of traditional Air Force, Navy and Army personnel, using land, sea and aircraft operating across the traditional domains. This is one possible outcome, in relation to a comparison between the U.S. Space Force, which is still on an evolutionary path, evolving to the point that it is an independent, from the United States Army, Navy, or its Air Force, and the Australian Defence Force’s proposed Space Command, that is anticipated, “will bring together the three military branches, along with civilian representatives from Defence, and potentially other government agencies” (Davis, 2021). As was noted earlier, this represents an almost identical evolution to that of the UK Space Force, and Japanese Squadron organisations that have arisen recently.

In relation to Space Manoeuvre, as we might envisage its application by a Terrestrial-Based, Mid-Level Space Force, the capacity to make additional launches are subject to other notional constraints, such as: optimal positions

and time-space phasing; or, critical orbits, launch corridors, and communications paths around the world (Szymanski, 2019). Space Manoeuvre constraints would also sit within an overall framework of access to Space denial to the adversary, and maximizing freedom of action (Szymanski, 2019; U.S. Space Force, 2020).

FUTURE DIRECTION OF SUPERPOWER SPACE FORCES Outside the framework of the Mid-Level Space Power, and its Force, the Space Superpowers are expected over the next decade to hyper-extend their lead over the rest of the Terrestrial Countries. It is expected that the current Spacefaring Nations will rapidly technologically develop, and will have Space Stations, and Human, and Robotic settlement-bases on the Moon, and Mars. Transition to a Space Force, is anticipated to radically change defence budgets, and will have radically different outcomes depending on the entry level. In 2019, military expenditure by the United States amounted to over three-percent of its Gross Domestic Product, amounting to $732 Billion USD (Szmigiera, 2021). It has been calculated in early 2020, in order to get into Space first, around one percent of Global GDP needs to be spent (Air Force Association, 2020). Based on the 2019 total in International Dollars, one percent of Global GDP is about $1.4 Trillion, at current estimates (Statista). It is suggested, however, that more realistically, the spend of one percent of GDP is more likely to be per country – given the initial out-lays likely required for a radical and massive move to create the infrastructure needed for the new Space Economy. It could be anticipated, conversion of the current Space Superpowers, from a terrestrial focus on the Earth, will rapidly convert to Solar System Powers, and military budgets for use on Earth, will likely radically flip – following the complexity inversion equation (Gould, 1978), from investment in surface, sub-surface and air forces, to the majority of the budgets used for building defence capabilities in Space.

A partial driver, of the flip from majority investment in Terrestrial-Based, to Space-Based Space Force, will be that the residual legacy Terrestrial-Based Force will be so massively advanced, that a relatively moderate one, backed by a powerful third boxer coming-in from the deep recesses of Space (Flaherty, 2021), will in all likelihood be capable of overwhelming an opponent with a traditional Terrestrial-Based Force. A powerful capability that will drive Terrestrial-Based campaigns, and global-battlefield manoeuvre will be the development of a new generation of Starlifter-Globemaster: Earth-to-Earth Rocket Transporters, capable of launch and controlled landing single stage rocket transport vehicles. Able to heavy lift hundred ton cargos, or 100 or more Human and Robotic combatants, within one hour over most of the Earth’s habitable land terrain utilising urban infrastructure, and sea-based transports as landing places. The ability to control from Space the high-ground, and circumnavigate the Earth, while the oldest of our Space Warfare concepts, are nevertheless still current. It will make the Space Force, of the future, the true inheritors of the motto of The Royal Artillery: Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt (Everywhere Whither Right and Glory Lead).

Another possible direction of future Space Forces, could be less military, and more likely to develop as policing and civil defence entities: Space Coast Guards. This evolution, could be a likely extension of factors, such as Moon, and Mars settlement-bases under civil, and private corporation management, operating within a system of International Space Law, Nation of Flag Registry, and under international auspices. This may see Space Forces used as policing, emergency and civil defence organisations, and largely dedicated to Planetary Defence.

PLANETARY DEFENCE Assuming, that global international detente holds sway, Militarization and Weaponization of Space will likely continue along a discrete path, developed only for policing, and Planetary Defence, against external threats to Earth, the Moon, or Mars. One of the key planetary threats, is a collision involving a Space Object. It could be anticipated that a series of Deep Space Defence Stations could be constructed, located at any, or all of the several known strategic Lagrange Points. An Asteroid-Based Battle Station has also been proposed at the Jupiter Trojans (Maccone, 2002). Heavily armoured, and armed Battle Stations would likely have rotating rings creating artificial gravity.

These might not be that large, as the Von Braun Wheel Space Station was envisaged to be 63 meters: 200 feet in diameter (Neufeld, 2006). Even larger rotating Wheel Stations were only envisaged with a diameter of 76 meters: 250 feet. Envisaged having a three deck wheel revolving at three revolutions-per-minute, to provide artificial onethird gravity, for a crew of 80. A future generation of the Deep Space Defence Stations, could be envisage acting as key transit points for Deep Solar System exploration, and economic activity. Operating as key defence installations, for Civil Space Emergencies, and defending Earth, Cislunar and Mars Space from Deep Space threats. Docking and crew-rest facilities can be imagined. Surfaced armoured to withstand strikes from meteorite, and Space debris. Armed with lasers, and kinetic kill vehicles, launched from it (Janhunen, 2021).

It would carry asteroid and meteor killer weaponry, or capabilities to capture and recover these – not unlike the current planned NASA’s Asteroid Redirect Mission (NASA).

About the Author Chris Flaherty authored the Terrorism Research Center’s report – Dangerous Minds (2012). He was the co-primary author, along with Robert J. Bunker of the book – Body Cavity Bombers: The New Martyrs (iUniverse, 2013). Two essays of his, from 2003 and 2010 were reprinted in the Terrorism Research Center’s book – Fifth Dimensional Operations (iUniverse, 2014). He contributed a book chapter – The Role of CCTV in Terrorist TTPs, edited by Dave Dilegge, Robert J. Bunker, John P. Sullivan, and Alma Keshavarz, the book – Blood and Concrete: 21st Century Conflict in Urban Centers and Megacities, a Small Wars Journal anthology, published on behalf of the Small Wars Foundation with Xlibris (2019). Chris Flaherty is currently a Space & Defense Tech and Security News Regular Contributor.

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WATCH THIS SPACE IN 2022 TALK TO US ABOUT SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

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Geared up for launch: Four years of space engineering takes flight

I

nnovation works hard behind the scenes, often for years, before its accomplishments see the light of day. This year marks an exciting one for Immortal Data and the students at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, as their industrial partnership is finally set to take off, with all their hard work on board. Since 2017, IDI and NM Tech students have toiled long hours, developing the payload mounting and attaching system for sub-orbital flight, using extremely strict weight and volume guidelines. Their combined efforts have resulted in a payload that not only holds IDI’s data acquisition and logging system “microDAQ and ShipsStore,” but also includes structural health monitoring capabilities.

Structural Health Monitoring is an important technology that improves flight safety and reduces operation cost of future space systems. By monitoring structural conditions in real time, information on changes and damage can be reported immediately to the support team, which allows fast decisions to be made.

According to Dr. Andrei Zagrai, “We believe that structural health monitoring will be one of key components in re-usability of future space vehicles.

We are very excited to demonstrate its feasibility and integration with the backbox system developed by Immortal Data. It is a great opportunity to test our ideas

during sub-orbital space flight.”

By Students have been able to participate in a project MySecurity Media that will reshape the future of space safety standards.

“This project is also an excellent example of collaboration between the institute and a commercial company as it has both educational and research objectives. We have an undergraduate student team which helped to design and fabricate payload and gained much experience interacting with space engineers at Immortal Data. A graduate student and a former New Mexico Tech graduate were involved in design, implementation, and validation of SHM experiment further advancing research and engineering solutions for space vehicles. We hope that our joint work will help to make spaceflight safer and affordable to everyone.”

Through blended endeavours of passion and drive, NM Tech students and IDI have crafted a piece of technology that will impact the future of space engineering for years to come. IDI ShipStore’s patented solution to accumulate, store, and share sensor data in real time, combined with the enclosure designed by NMT to withstand the rigorous stress of a space launch, is a huge achievement for both parties involved. Immortal Data will be delivering the payload this month in anticipation of the sub-orbital flight scheduled to take place in November.

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Australian space manufacturing network bids for three new space facilities earmarked for Queensland By MySecurity Media

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S

atellites with sensors and cameras that detect bushfires within minutes, provide real-time crop data to farmers, connect our remote towns and communities, and rockets that provide valuable access to space from Australia.

These are just some of the ‘real world’ capabilities possible with space technology today.

But much adequate funding support would further boost the creation of innovations like these which are already being developed by researchers and companies in Australia.

“However, the Space industry is still very new relative to other industry pillars, and it lacks the funding and basic infrastructure to support it,” said Adam Gilmour, CEO of Gilmour Space Technologies.

The Australian Space Manufacturing Network (ASMN), led by Gilmour Space with backing from the Queensland Government – aims to establish three new space facilities,

centred in Queensland, and the funding would go a long way in the creation of: (1) a common test and manufacturing facility, enabling members to advance their space research and technology development at lower cost; (2) an advanced manufacturing facility for building commercial rockets and satellites, anchored by Gilmour Space; (3) an orbital spaceport at Abbot Point near Bowen in North Queensland, that will help bring many of these products to space.

“With participation from six states and territories in Australia, we see this as a genuinely industry-led project that will provide the framework and infrastructure needed to unlock collaborations, create jobs and capability, attract private investment, and advance Australian

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space technologies from initial concept through to commercialisation and launch,” said Mr Gilmour.

Among the ASMN founding members are Swinburne University of Technology in Victoria; Space Machines Company and Neumann Space in South Australia; Electro Optic Systems and Greatcell Energy in the ACT; Spiral Blue in New South Wales; the ARM Hub and Griffith University in Queensland; and a number of international space companies, such as SatRevolution from Poland, which are looking to set up operations in Australia and provide export and supply chain opportunities to local companies.

“Australian space manufacturing facilities will unlock Australia’s true potential as a respected space faring nation,” said Glen Tindall, CEO of EOS Communications Systems. “The Australian Space Manufacturing Network and the diverse range of partners it brings together, demonstrates the end-to-end benefit these types of

facilities will have across Australia and beyond.”

Dr Cori Steward, CEO of ARM Hub, added: “For Australia’s manufacturing future, we need to do bigger business together. As a key partner in the Australian Space Manufacturing Network, ARM Hub will be catalysing commercialisation through industry access to the nation’s expertise, de-risking technology adoption and building workforce digital capability, collaboratively.”

“With the global space economy expected to grow to a trillion dollars by 2030, the MMIC will provide timely support for our emerging space manufacturers to develop and mature significant, and globally competitive, space capabilities in Australia,” said Mr Gilmour.

The ASMN proposal has been submitted to the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources.

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Space tourism -Adventures industry By Dr Chris Flaherty My Space Warfare Analysis Lab

T

he Scaled Composites SpaceShipTwo Spaceplane (central fuselage) resting under its mothership, White Knight Two, inside a hangar in Mojave, California, U.S. Virgin Galactic/Mark Greenberg (6 December, 2009).

Virgin Galactic plans to operate a fleet of five SpaceShipTwo Spaceplanes. Each Spaceplane seats 6 passengers, and has two flight crewpersons.

SPACE TOURISM MARKET STUDIES The Space Tourism-Adventure Industry is seen as largely dependent on a limited pool of exceptionally wealthy customers (King, 2020). Since its inception around 1998, the Industry, has been limited due to high fixed costs to enter the Space market, unless these are offset by government or a wealthy third party (Carr, 2005).

Market studies, in 2002 (Futron, 2002), then in 2018 (Guerstera, 2018), looked at the potential growth of a Space Tourism Industry from a 2006 (then adjusted to 2008) start date, till 2021. Market studies found ticket prices should follow a pattern of starting high, then briefly raising, and then declining: Economic forecasts identified 15,000 (if starting in 2006), or 13,000 passengers (if starting in 2008) by 2021. It Starting in 2006-08 Initial Price: $100,000

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First three Years

By 2021

Rise to $200,000

Decline to $50,000

should be noted that the later years demand would be the highest in terms of the number of people wanting a ticket: “For the last year, 2016, the report predicts an annual passenger demand of 4,400 for a ticket price of $100,000.”

(Guerstera, 2018) The number of Space Tourism flights are predicted to rise from 10 a year, in the near future, to 360 a year by 2030 (Pultarova, 2021). The forecasts, for a 9-year period from 2021, are: “global cumulative revenues of $7.9 billion generated by 2030” (Northern Sky Research, 2021). This is based on a progressive rise in passenger figures from that suggested earlier, from a potential worldwide pool of 1315,000, to some 41,000 passengers by 2030.

The following table spreads a total of 41,000 passengers (Pax.), over nine years, flying on a 6-seat Spaceplane, with an estimated ticket price of $192,682 per seat. Some 4,555 passengers would fly into Space, per year on 759 flights, at a rate of 2-3 flights per day, all-year round.

The limiting factors on maintaining this level of commercial activity is the number of potential craft available, and the number of companies operating craft, or facilitating flights – booking agents.

It should be noted that an earlier forecast, had a compressed rate over a 7 to 8-year period, with a higher rate of passengers, and ticket sales: • “Suborbital and Orbital tourist services beginning in 2020 and 2021, respectively, generating $14B in cumulative revenues by 2028.” (Northern Sky Research, 2019)

INTERNATIONAL SPACE

Year

Pax.

Est. Ticket Per Seat

6 Per Flight

2021

4,555

192,682

759

2022

4,555

192,682

759

2023

4,555

192,682

759

2024

4,555

192,682

759

2025

4,555

192,682

759

2026

4,555

192,682

759

2027

4,555

192,682

759

2028

4,555

192,682

759

2029

4,555

192,682

759

2030

4,555

192,682

759

TOTAL

41,000

7.8B

41,000

More recent economic analysis reporting has suggested a rise in overall ticket prices, from the Space Tourism companies, independently estimating: • “Virgin Galactic will be raising ticket prices from $250,000 apiece to between $300,000 and $400,000, and thousands of buyers could line up.” (Hoium, 2021)

SPACE TOURISM START, HALT AND RESTART (1996-2019) Virgin Galactic (Space Tourism Company), was founded in 2004 after SpaceShipOne, built by the company Scaled Composites and financed by the late billionaire Paul Allen,

won the $10 million Ansari X Prize for Reusable Commercial Spaceflight (Gohd, 2021). The origin of the Ansari X Prize related back: “In May of 1996, in the spirit of private growth, the Ansari X Prize Foundation announced it would award ten million dollars to the first team that privately financed, built, and launched a Spaceship able to carry three people to 100 kilometres, return safely to Earth, and successfully repeat the launch within two weeks.” (Carr, 2005) Russia halted Orbital Space Tourism, that had started in 1998-2001, in 2010 because of an increase in the International Space Station crew size. The decision also related to the end of the Space Shuttle Program:

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30.5 kilometres,

“Tourist visits to Space came to a halt when NASA’s Shuttle Program ended in 2011. Thereafter, American Astronauts bound for the International Space Station … were allocated seats aboard Soyuz rockets pursuant to a U.S. diplomatic agreement with Russia, leaving no extra seats to accommodate tourist passengers.” (King, 2020) June, 2019 NASA announced starting in 2020, Private Astronauts would be going to the International Space Station (ISS) using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Spacecraft and Boeing Starliner Spacecraft for Public Astronauts.

“In June 2019, NASA changed a long-standing policy when it announced plans to allow private citizens to fly to the ISS for short visits. It did not, however, offer to provide transportation.” (King, 2020)

using a high-

CURRENT ASTRONAUT DISTINCTIONS

"its Spaceship Neptune, a pressurized capsule, carried to an altitude of nearly 19 miles:

altitude gas-filled football-fieldsized balloon.

Designed to carry eight passengers and one pilot.

The price is $125,000 per seat."

Inaugural Edge-of-Space Flights by Virgin Galactic, and Blue Origin had ‘Astronaut Wings’ award ceremonies – that used private companies’ badge designs. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), announced a major change to its Commercial Space Astronaut Wings Program, which launched in 2004. A Commercial Astronaut is a person who has commanded, piloted, or served as an active crew member of a privately funded Spacecraft. The new change: those who fly on Commercial Space Missions must also have demonstrated activities during flight that were essential to public safety, or contributed to Human Space flight safety (FAA, 2021).

THE ALAN SHEPARD EXPERIENCE The commonly understood requirement for Suborbital Space Tourism is to take a passenger to an altitude above the Earth’s surface, at some 62.1 miles: 100 kilometres, providing them with an adventure in Space, experiencing weightlessness, view the curve of the Earth, and blackness of Outer Space. This largely attempts to replicate the 5 May, 1961 mission by Alan Shepard in the Freedom 7 Spacecraft (Capsule). It blasted-off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a Mercury-Redstone 3 Rocket, carrying Shepard to an altitude of 116 miles: 187 kilometres for a 15 minute Suborbital flight.

The Capsule parachuted back for an ocean landing.

2021 Blue Origin New Shepard Spacecraft (Capsule) blasted-off, on a Reusable First-Stage Booster Rocket.

Carrying to an altitude of 62.1 miles: 100 kilometres for a 3 minute Edge of Space flight. The Capsule parachuted back for a land landing.

2021 Virgin Galactic Spaceplane, released from a aircraft mothership flew above 49.6 miles: 80 kilometres for a 8 minute Edge of Space flight, and then glided-back to an airstrip.

EXPERIENCING WEIGHTLESSNESS ADVENTURES Space Adventures operates a modified Boeing aircraft that takes off from a runway, reaches a certain altitude, and performs a manoeuvre in the shape of an arc that allows passengers aboard to feel intense pressure almost twice that of normal gravity on the way up followed quickly by

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less than a minute of weightlessness near the top of the arc. The feeling is said to be similar to what an Astronaut feels in the microgravity environment of the International Space Station. The aircraft performs this manoeuvre several times within airspace designated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The experience costs about $5,400 per passenger (King, 2020).

FUTURE SPACE TOURISM–ADVENTURES Space Perspective, a Florida-based private company was created in June 2020. The company has been accepting seat reservations for its Spaceship Neptune, a pressurized capsule, carried to an altitude of nearly 19 miles: 30.5 kilometres, using a high-altitude gas-filled football-fieldsized balloon. Designed to carry eight passengers and one pilot. The price is $125,000 per seat. Initially operating from a base in Florida. Passengers can expect to view the curve of the Earth and blackness of Outer Space, far above the altitudes at which commercial airplanes normally fly (around 7.2 miles: 11.5 kilometres). The balloon descends after a several-hour journey by gradually releasing its gas, to land at sea for a recovery (King, 2020; Wall, 2021).

SPACE DIVING-JUMPING Space Diving-Jumping, are extreme high-altitudes skydives that require a specialised suit, or capsule and suit combination, and use a high-altitude balloon to make the ascent:

REGULATING SPACE TOURISM The Space Tourism-Adventures Industry is still in its beginnings, and so far not a great deal of regulations, or laws have been designed. In the case of, “The U.S. government currently has no procedures for certifying the safety of launch vehicles or Space travel for tourists. An exhaustive certification process exists for Commercial Spacecraft transporting NASA Astronauts, but the same standards have not been formally required of Space vehicles for tourist use.” (King, 2020) It is also unclear whether NASA will insist that Private Astronauts and Space Tourists visiting the International Space Station, in late 2021, will need to meet the same medical and training requirements as NASA Astronauts aboard the Station (King, 2020).

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OVERVIEW Researchers have attempted to assess the impact of Stratosphere pollution from rocket exhaust (Pultarova, 2021). Environmental concern is that increasing launch frequencies, and accumulating effects could cause harm by injecting pollutants into the Stratosphere. There is already a permanent layer of carbon in the atmosphere at the flight level of aircraft. Particles from rocket motors will likely create a secondary level in the Stratosphere.

It has been theorize, that rocket motors burning hydrocarbon fuels generate soot. Soot absorbs ultraviolet

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light, and this could possibly heat the Stratosphere, potentially changing its motion. Future harm may come in altering the polar jet stream, change winter storm patterns or affect average rainfall. Soot particles generated by hybrid rocket engines are extremely small and light-weight, and the particles could stay in the Stratosphere forever.

Solid fuel rocket engines used for boosters burn metallic compounds emitting aluminium oxide particles together with hydrochloric acid, both of which have a damaging effect on the atmosphere. For instance, there was a measurable impact from the Space Shuttle’s solid fuel boosters on ozone depletion in the Stratosphere. Rockets generating ozonedamaging substances continue to launch currently.

The potential problem is rocket engine burns pollute

the higher layers of the atmosphere in the Earth’s Stratosphere at an altitude of 6.2 miles: 10 kilometres, and the Mesosphere at an altitude of 31 miles: 50 kilometres.

Emitting pollutants in a place where these are not normally emitted. So far, the impact of rocket launches on the atmosphere is negligible. The amount of fuel currently burned by the Space Industry is less than 1% of the fuel burned by Aviation. However, a Suborbital Space Tourism flight, lasting about an hour and a half, can generate as much pollution as a 10-hour Trans-Atlantic Flight.

AUSTRALIAN SPACE TOURISM-ADVENTURES Having looked at the overall structure of the current Space

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Tourism-Adventures Industry, how does this translate into Australia? There are several possibilities: Have booking agents operating in Australia to facilitate individual and group tours to the U.S. to take a Space Tourism-Adventures flight.

Establish an Astronaut Training Facility to prepare Private and Commercial Space Travellers for their flight in the U.S. The same facility could be used for advanced training and research for developing AustNauts (Australian National Astronauts Corps), as well as Defence, Commercial, Public and Private Astronauts, and Space Travellers.

Oliver Daemen at 18, is the youngest person to go into Space. Professional Astronauts are in their mid-30s (the average age is 34), and Allan Shepard was 38 when he first went into Space, and was 47 when he set foot on the Moon. Many nations are now looking to create a Space Generation. Some of the issues, are: (1) How young can a person be trained, and prepared to go into Space; (2) Using Commercial Space Flights to gain experience.

Advanced Australian Space Tourism-Adventures Industry would require a Spaceplane Runway, which would also serve Commercial and Defence needs in terms of access to Space Stations, and Space Factories, sending up horizontal launch missions, and landing craft (Virgin Galactic). There would also need to be a fixed launching pad for Vertical Launch Systems (Blue Origin).

Could see seasonal Space Jumping and Stratospheric Balloon tours and research activities.

A Spaceport Australia approach, and development of an Australian Space Mission Control, is linked with the National Space Tracking System. Australia’s established Space Tracking Network is part of the trans-global system that has been used since the original Moon landings, and will be instrumental in the next block of Moon and Mars Human missions.

Integrated with land and air transport system. As most of Australia’s Space activities would take place in the open interior in relation to its three inland Spaceport sites, linked to a mobile-launch land corridor traversing the continent South to North.“Tourist visits to Space came to a halt when NASA’s Shuttle Program ended in 2011. Thereafter, American Astronauts bound for the International Space Station … were allocated seats aboard Soyuz rockets pursuant to a U.S. diplomatic agreement with Russia, leaving no extra seats to accommodate tourist passengers.” (King, 2020) June, 2019 NASA announced starting in 2020, Private Astronauts would be going to the International Space Station (ISS) using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Spacecraft and Boeing Starliner Spacecraft for Public Astronauts.

“In June 2019, NASA changed a long-standing policy when it announced plans to allow private citizens to fly to the ISS for short visits. It did not, however, offer to provide transportation.” (King, 2020)

CURRENT ASTRONAUT DISTINCTIONS Inaugural Edge-of-Space Flights by Virgin Galactic, and Blue Origin had ‘Astronaut Wings’ award ceremonies – that used private companies’ badge designs. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), announced a major change

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to its Commercial Space Astronaut Wings Program, which launched in 2004. A Commercial Astronaut is a person who has commanded, piloted, or served as an active crew member of a privately funded Spacecraft. The new change: those who fly on Commercial Space Missions must also have demonstrated activities during flight that were essential to public safety, or contributed to Human Space flight safety (FAA, 2021).

THE ALAN SHEPARD EXPERIENCE The commonly understood requirement for Suborbital Space Tourism is to take a passenger to an altitude above the Earth’s surface, at some 62.1 miles: 100 kilometres, providing them with an adventure in Space, experiencing weightlessness, view the curve of the Earth, and blackness of Outer Space. This largely attempts to replicate the 5 May, 1961 mission by Alan Shepard in the Freedom 7 Spacecraft (Capsule). It blasted-off from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a Mercury-Redstone 3 Rocket, carrying Shepard to an altitude of 116 miles: 187 kilometres for a 15 minute Suborbital flight.

The Capsule parachuted back for an ocean landing.

2021 Blue Origin New Shepard Spacecraft (Capsule) blasted-off, on a Reusable First-Stage Booster Rocket.

Carrying to an altitude of 62.1 miles: 100 kilometres for a 3 minute Edge of Space flight. The Capsule parachuted back for a land landing.

2021 Virgin Galactic Spaceplane, released from a aircraft mothership flew above 49.6 miles: 80 kilometres for a 8 minute Edge of Space flight, and then glided-back to an airstrip.

1959

Joseph Kittinger

14.4 miles

23.2 kilometres

1960

Joseph Kittinger

19.4 miles

31.3 kilometres

2012

Felix Baumgartner

24.2 miles

38.9 kilometres

2014

Alan Eustace

25.7 miles

41.4 kilometres

EXPERIENCING WEIGHTLESSNESS ADVENTURES Space Adventures operates a modified Boeing aircraft that takes off from a runway, reaches a certain altitude, and performs a manoeuvre in the shape of an arc that allows passengers aboard to feel intense pressure almost twice that of normal gravity on the way up followed quickly by less than a minute of weightlessness near the top of the arc. The feeling is said to be similar to what an Astronaut feels in the microgravity environment of the International Space Station. The aircraft performs this manoeuvre several times within airspace designated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The experience costs about $5,400 per passenger (King, 2020).

FUTURE SPACE TOURISM–ADVENTURES Space Perspective, a Florida-based private company was created in June 2020. The company has been accepting seat reservations for its Spaceship Neptune, a pressurized capsule, carried to an altitude of nearly 19 miles: 30.5 kilometres, using a high-altitude gas-filled football-field-

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sized balloon. Designed to carry eight passengers and one pilot. The price is $125,000 per seat. Initially operating from a base in Florida. Passengers can expect to view the curve of the Earth and blackness of Outer Space, far above the altitudes at which commercial airplanes normally fly (around 7.2 miles: 11.5 kilometres). The balloon descends after a several-hour journey by gradually releasing its gas, to land at sea for a recovery (King, 2020; Wall, 2021).

SPACE DIVING-JUMPING Space Diving-Jumping, are extreme high-altitudes skydives that require a specialised suit, or capsule and suit combination, and use a high-altitude balloon to make the ascent: Space Diving Records (1959-2014):

REGULATING SPACE TOURISM

The Space Tourism-Adventures Industry is still in its beginnings, and so far not a great deal of regulations, or laws have been designed. In the case of, “The U.S. government currently has no procedures for certifying the safety of launch vehicles or Space travel for tourists. An exhaustive certification process exists for Commercial Spacecraft transporting NASA Astronauts, but the same standards have not been formally required of Space vehicles for tourist use.” (King, 2020) It is also unclear whether NASA will insist that Private Astronauts and Space Tourists visiting the International Space Station, in late 2021, will need to meet the same medical and training requirements as NASA Astronauts aboard the Station (King, 2020).

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OVERVIEW Researchers have attempted to assess the impact of Stratosphere pollution from rocket exhaust (Pultarova, 2021). Environmental concern is that increasing launch frequencies, and accumulating effects could cause harm by injecting pollutants into the Stratosphere. There is already a permanent layer of carbon in the atmosphere at the flight level of aircraft. Particles from rocket motors will likely create a secondary level in the Stratosphere.

It has been theorize, that rocket motors burning hydrocarbon fuels generate soot. Soot absorbs ultraviolet light, and this could possibly heat the Stratosphere, potentially changing its motion. Future harm may come in altering the polar jet stream, change winter storm patterns or affect average rainfall. Soot particles generated by hybrid rocket engines are extremely small and light-weight, and the particles could stay in the Stratosphere forever.

Solid fuel rocket engines used for boosters burn metallic compounds emitting aluminium oxide particles together with hydrochloric acid, both of which have a damaging effect on the atmosphere. For instance, there was a measurable impact from the Space Shuttle’s solid fuel boosters on ozone depletion in the Stratosphere. Rockets generating ozonedamaging substances continue to launch currently.

The potential problem is rocket engine burns pollute the higher layers of the atmosphere in the Earth’s

Stratosphere at an altitude of 6.2 miles: 10 kilometres, and the Mesosphere at an altitude of 31 miles: 50 kilometres.

Emitting pollutants in a place where these are not normally emitted. So far, the impact of rocket launches on the atmosphere is negligible. The amount of fuel currently burned by the Space Industry is less than 1% of the fuel burned by Aviation. However, a Suborbital Space Tourism flight, lasting about an hour and a half, can generate as much pollution as a 10-hour Trans-Atlantic Flight.

AUSTRALIAN SPACE TOURISM-ADVENTURES Having looked at the overall structure of the current Space Tourism-Adventures Industry, how does this translate into Australia? There are several possibilities: Have booking agents operating in Australia to facilitate individual and group tours to the U.S. to take a Space Tourism-Adventures flight.

Establish an Astronaut Training Facility to prepare Private and Commercial Space Travellers for their flight in the U.S. The same facility could be used for advanced training and research for developing AustNauts (Australian National Astronauts Corps), as well as Defence, Commercial, Public and Private Astronauts, and Space Travellers.

Oliver Daemen at 18, is the youngest person to go into Space. Professional Astronauts are in their mid-30s (the average age is 34), and Allan Shepard was 38 when he first went into Space, and was 47 when he set foot on the Moon. Many nations are now looking to create a Space Generation. Some of the issues, are: (1) How young can a person be trained, and prepared to go into Space; (2) Using Commercial Space Flights to gain experience.

Advanced Australian Space Tourism-Adventures Industry would require a Spaceplane Runway, which would also serve Commercial and Defence needs in terms of access to Space Stations, and Space Factories, sending up horizontal launch missions, and landing craft (Virgin Galactic). There would also need to be a fixed launching pad for Vertical Launch Systems (Blue Origin).

Could see seasonal Space Jumping and Stratospheric Balloon tours and research activities.

A Spaceport Australia approach, and development of an Australian Space Mission Control, is linked with the National Space Tracking System. Australia’s established Space Tracking Network is part of the trans-global system that has been used since the original Moon landings, and will be instrumental in the next block of Moon and Mars Human missions.

Integrated with land and air transport system. As most of Australia’s Space activities would take place in the open interior in relation to its three inland Spaceport sites, linked to a mobile-launch land corridor traversing the continent South to North.

"Suborbital and Orbital tourist services beginning in 2020 and 2021, respectively, generating $14B in cumulative revenues by 2028."

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UK-Australian Space Industry Talk By Dr Chris Flaherty My Space Warfare Analysis Lab

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T

he 1980s launch sector, largely began to become commercial and grow with a market dominated by large satellites being put into Geostationary Orbit for telecommunications, TV and other applications. Orbiting the Earth directly above the Equator at an altitude of more than 35,000 kilometres covering large geog raphical areas.

The satellites often much larger than their Low Earth Orbit counterparts, are typically launched from Spaceports near the Equator to get an extra boost from the Earth’s rotation.

Low Earth Orbit satellites usually orbit within 1000 kilometres and do not need to follow a particular path around Earth providing faster communications etc. Can be launched into orbit from appropriate sites in different areas of the world. The focus of this talk will be on the MicroLift Rocket Market. To put this into context, as to how the current industry is structured: Market analysis of the Space launch sector suggest opportunities exist for the UK to be at the forefront of the Global and European Small Satellite launch market[2].

The potential launch market for Small Rockets (payload up to 500 kilograms), will likely see some 3,814 Small Satellites, equivalent to a mass of 146 metric tonnes (95 tons: commercial satellites; 45 tons: civilian; and 6 tons: military), launched till 2031 from the UK[3]. This number may be understated as SpaceX has already launched 1,500 Starlink Satellites since 2019. As of early October, 2020 SpaceX had launched more than 700 satellites into orbit, with a plan to release a total of 12,000 over the next five years, half of them by the end of 2024[4]. The megaconstellation could have a total of 42,000 satellites.

Light-Lift Rocket Payload from 500 to 4,000 kilograms to Low Earth Orbit. Estimated Launch Price: Around $50 M. Micro-Lift Rocket Market Payload up to 500 kilograms to Low Earth Orbit. Estimated Launch Price: Around $10 M. The Micro-Lift Rocket Market covers four basic classes of Satellite: SMALL/ MINISATELLITES

MICROSATELLITES

NANOSATELLITE

CUBESATS/

100-500

10-100

1-10

NANOSATELLITE

kilograms

kilograms

kilograms

Less than 1.33 kilograms (3 pounds)

The UK Space Industry Act, 2018 has a payload limit currently up to 500 kilograms to Low Earth Orbit.

The Regulations dictate the Launch Licencing Program, that covers Insurance Level, liability and Range Management Issues.

CubeSats are built to standard dimensions of 1U: Unit (10 x 10 x 10 centimetres). Can be more: 2U, 3U, or 6U in size

The Starlink Satellite weighs 573 pounds: 260 kilograms.

Likely representing a total launch mass of 12,037 tons.

UK Government has announced several Spaceport sites, that fall into a Northern Cluster and the South-Western UK. Some of the Northern Cluster occupy the Far-Northern Scotland island chain and Northernmost Coastline. Largely dedicated to vertical ground launching Small Rockets, and are sited for Polar Low Earth Orbit. For instance there is Sutherland Spaceport (Scotland). It will host the Orbex Prime: Light-Lift Rocket. Its First-Stage Booster is planned

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to be reusable.

The second group of Spaceports, are part of the Northern Cluster and the South-Western region of the UK, in Wales, and Cornwall: Glasgow Prestwick Airport. Horizontal Air-Launched Facility, will handle: Hypersonic Flights, Micro-Gravity Flights, and Space Tourism.

Campbeltown Airport. The military runway length is: 3,049 meters (10,003 feet). It was a back-up landing strip for the Space Shuttle. The longest in Europe and was an RAF and NATO base of operations till 1997. Anticipated to be a Spaceplane Port.

Snowdonia North Wales, the former Llanbedr Airfield[5].

Has a partnership with B2Space, that plans to operate High-Altitude Operations using a Stratospheric Balloon.

Called a Rockoon (rocket and balloon), the craft can put into Low Earth Orbit a Small or Micro-Satellite via a solid fuel sounding rocket. Carried into the upper atmosphere by a gas-filled balloon, separated and ignited.

Cornwall Spaceport Newquay.

CORNWALL SPACEPORT NEWQUAY Newquay is the only UK Horizontal Spaceport to be operational currently. Satellite Launch Partner with Virgin Orbit. The Spaceport is dedicated exclusively to Virgin Orbit use. The ‘Cosmic Girl’ a former modified commercial 747, can carry a Small Rocket, with a payload up to 500 kilograms into Low Earth Orbit. Can take-off anywhere on the planet as long as there is an airfield that can accommodate a 747.

Newquay, while primarily hosting Virgin Orbit, the Sierra Nevada Corporation now has an agreement for them to use the runway for orbital return of their Dream Chaser Spaceplane[6]. It is one of several potential sites around the world. For the Spaceplane it could be used as a primary and secondary landing site, as well as for Space payload deliveries (from the Sierra Nevada Corporation Space Station – Factory). Around Newquay a cluster of facilities is planned to be built processing payloads. Transforming into cargo for regular flights, as well as land, and sea transport options.

Newquay a former Cold-War Period RAF Base, has one of the longest runway length in the UK: some 2,744 meters: 9,002 feet long which can be extended to over 3,000 meters. The Dream Chaser can land at any suitable runway that is 8,000 feet: 2,400 meters long, around the world without requiring specialized equipment Newquay is located on the coast with uncongested and unrestricted airspace and one of the longest runways, was chosen for the following reasons: (1) Coastal location; (2) Low residential build-up; (3) Direct access over the seas; and, (4) Historical Space infrastructure. The ‘Cosmic Girl’ can take-off over the Cornwall coastline and track out to sea, and not have a wider impact on the safety zone.

The Mission control for Newquay is the nearby Goonhilly Earth Station. This major Ground Deep-Space Communications Station, has Deep-Sea cable connections.

MERGED SPACEPORTS – AIRPORTS A marriage of operators looking for Spaceports, that best

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“Dream Chaser (Sierra Nevada Corporation) Orbital Spaceplane.”

Gilmour Space Technologies Test Rocket Mobile Launcher.

fit their operations, and International Airports. Are a major building block for a Space Economy to be set-up. Will have mixed Vertical and long runways for Horizontal Small Rocket launching, and Spaceplane landings. Landing pads for Earth-to-Earth Rocket Transporters will likely be seen.

Clustered around the port will be servicing Space Factory out-puts facilities, and road, rail, sea, and air transportation.

Currently, the merger has begun. For instance, in the UK, Glasgow Prestwick Airport has sought interest from companies in carrying out Horizontal Space Launches from its 2,986 meters: 9,796 feet long concrete case runway[8].

This is part of a commercial plan – The Ayrshire Growth Deal document: “investment will be a catalyst to establishing Glasgow Prestwick Airport as the leading horizontal launch

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Spaceport in Europe, providing a range of services including Micro-Gravity Flights, Air-Launch of satellites, Human Space flight and Hypersonic Flight Services.”[9]

UK SEA LAUNCH Black Arrow Space Technologies is a Sea-Based NetZero Launch Provider (meaning using infrastructure, propellants, and debris minimization strategies to reduce environmental impact, and increase safety). Their commercial plan is generally understood: ‘[by]… having a Sea-Borne fleet of launch ships, don’t dig up protected areas, don’t disrupt coastal environments, don’t disrupt populations, simply through building a Spaceport in the wrong place, and by taking a Space fleet

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out from a current port infrastructure there is no disruption over and above the ordinary dealings of that port’.

One potential is to be able to get a larger launcher up to 5 tons, out into the Atlantic and launch from International Waters to Medium Earth Orbit (an altitude above a Low Earth Orbit, and below a High Earth Orbit, or Geostationary Earth Orbit).

The Space fleet is planned to be based in South Wales (UK). Final payload preparation will take place prior to boarding a vessel and sailing to the launch site from a port of operations. Ultimately, the aim is to have ships based in key locations across the world offering global launch services.

THE SMALL SATELLITE INDUSTRY The Small Rocket Industry is primarily leveraging development of highly capable Small Satellites and InterPlanetary Probes based on micro-miniaturized technology that is becoming more advanced. Small Satellite Industry and Companies commercially operate as an alternative to ride-share on a bigger rocket. Ride-share commercial disadvantages: (1) Constrained by timing; (2) Constrained by open Space opportunities on the next rocket going up; and, (3) Slaved to the primary orbit.

Virgin Orbit’s 747 ‘Cosmic Girl’, is an Air-Based (Mobile Launch Platform), that serves as a Reusable First-Stage. It takes Rocket One to launch at 30,000 feet. This allows more payload, to achieve the same orbit, with the same thrust (compared to a Ground-Launch: requiring greater thrust – more fuels to undertake the same task).

Virgin Orbit plan to add a third stage to their rocket, that has a new type of propulsion. NASA contract (June, 2021) with Exo Terra Resource LLC, a Solar Electric Propulsion company based in Littleton, Colorado. Currently in development with Virgin Orbit for a Solar Electric Propulsion Upper-Stage.

This new type of propulsion is intended for Small Satellite deployment. The thruster while not that powerful compared to a chemical rocket; nevertheless, has greater efficiency, and is capable of producing thrust propelling the craft for a longer time span.

Comparatively, current reporting on the Rocket Lab Kicker-Stage, it is capable of multiple burns, that can deploy satellites to different orbits.

“Launch UK: Location of Seven Prospective UK Spaceports.”

“A simple model of a Liquid Hydrogen fuelled Nuclear Fission Rocket Engine.”

AUSTRALIA Australia has similar national compatibility to the UK in terms of its economics, people and history, technology, R&D, trade relationships and commercial linkages, as well as Spaceport options, and Space access.

In 2020, the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), announced its first Space payload launch from Australia. A DART rocket carrying a Defence payload was launched from the Koonibba Rocket Range in South Australia, marking the first commercial rocket launch to the edge of Space from Australia. At just 3.4 metres long and weighing 34 kilograms, the DART rocket is a fraction of the size of rockets launched

by NASA and SpaceX.

“Skylon concept designs for a reusable Single-Stage-to-Orbit Spaceplane by UK company Reaction Engines Limited.”

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In 2021, rocket launches in South Australia were approved. Access to Polar Low Earth Orbit is achievable from South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, and historical Woomera ranges for Small Payload Launching technology.

EQUATORIAL LAUNCH AUSTRALIA Equatorial Launch Australia: Arnhem Space Centre site in Australia’s Northern Territory, outside of the East Arnhem township of Nhulunbuy, approximately 12 degrees South of the Equator on the land of the Yolngu People.

SOUTHERN LAUNCH Southern Launch is an Australian Space company providing infrastructure and logistics support for Orbital and Suborbital launches of satellites and Space payloads.

Southern Launch’s Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex is a proposed rocket launching facility to be constructed in the locality of Sleaford near Port Lincoln on South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula.

Approvals from landowners, have been recently finalised for the construction of the first two rocket launch facilities for the Whalers Way Orbital Launch Complex. The objective is to develop a Space Launch Facility which would offer rocket launches for both Australian and internationals.

GILMOUR SPACE Gilmour Space has its Eris Orbital Rocket. This is 25 metres high, and is a three-stage rocket capable of launching Small satellites into Low Earth Orbit. Its diameter is 1.2 to 2 metres in different sections. Payloads range up to 215 kilograms to 500 kilometres into Sun Synchronous Orbit, or 305 kilograms to 500 kilometres into Equatorial Low Earth Orbit. The Queensland State Government, in Australia, has recently given its go-ahead for a Small Rocket launch site at Abbot Point.

SERVICES AND SUPPORT INDUSTRY One possible outcome of using an Australian Airport or port by a UK company is the services and support options.

There could also be services, and support for Space tourism for an operator like Virgin Galactic at an Australian airport.

Services and support for Spaceplane operations at a major commercial airport with suitable length runways, following the UK model could be a possibility. As could port support for Sea-Based launching vessels.

NEW ZEALAND Rocket Lab is a private U.S. aerospace manufacturer and Small Satellite launch service provider with a wholly owned New Zealand subsidiary. Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1, its primary launch site is on the Mahia Peninsula, east of Wairoa in the North Island, New Zealand. As of July 2020, a second pad at Mahia named Launch Complex 1B is under construction.

In March 2021, A UNSW Canberra Space’s M2 CubeSat

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satellite observing weather patterns, bushfires, maritime surveillance and satellite communications was launched

by Rocket Lab’s ‘They Go Up So Fast’ mission from New Zealand. The M2 mission was a collaboration between UNSW Canberra Space and the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF).

GROUND STATION TRACKING In March 2021, Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO has a new five-year agreement with Houston based aerospace company Intuitive Machines. The iconic Parkes radio telescope, owned and operated by CSIRO, will provide ground station support for one of the first commercial Lunar landings later this year. The new agreement with Intuitive Machines is to support multiple Lunar missions, including their first flight under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative.

NUCLEAR THERMAL PROPULSION The concept of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion has a long history, for instance, around 1969 NASA designed its NERVA Engine. In January 2021, Rolls-Royce signed an innovative contract with the UK Space Agency for a study into future nuclear power options for Space exploration. Engineers from NASA estimate a mission to Mars powered by Nuclear Thermal Propulsion would be 20 to 25% shorter than the same trip using a Chemical Powered Rocket.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion uses a small nuclear fission reactor to heat a working fluid, usually Liquid Hydrogen, to a high temperature, that expands through a rocket nozzle to create thrust.

“A simple model of a Liquid Hydrogen fuelled Nuclear Fission Rocket Engine.”

SKYLON SPACEPLANE Skylon is a concept design for a Reusable Single-Stageto-Orbit Spaceplane by the UK company Reaction Engines Limited.

The SABRE: a combined-cycle air-breathing rocket propulsion system, is being designed to power an Air-toSpace Vehicle, from zero to orbital speeds, that industry experts view has the potential to be a game-changer.

The Skylon design is for a hydrogen-fuelled Spaceplane, acting like an aircraft that would take-off from a purpose-built runway. It would then accelerate to Mach 5.4 at 26 kilometres: 85,000 feet altitude (compared to typical airliner’s 9 – 13 kilometres: 30,000 – 40,000 feet flying altitude). The Skylon uses the atmosphere’s oxygen before switching the engines to use the internal liquid oxygen supply to take it into orbit.

Skylon could carry 17 tons: 37,000 pounds of cargo to an Equatorial Low Earth Orbit; or, up to 11 tons: 24,000 pounds to the International Space Station. The relatively light vehicle would then re-enter the atmosphere and land on a runway, protected from re-entry conditions by its ceramic composite skin.

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Space terrorism future trends analysis By Dr Chris Flaherty My Space Warfare Analysis Lab

T

his Space Terrorism Future Trends Analysis looks at Space Terrorism incidents that have occurred since 1972, as the basis of a future trends prediction.

This paper will start with a fictional account of a kinetic attack on the Earth’s Satellite Layer in Low Earth Orbit, that has been identified as the most extreme terrorist act that current literature on Space Terrorism can predict. The mockscenario is used to illustrate the likely scale, and potential limitations of such an attack taking place, and is suggested as a potential Space Security wargaming scenario.

A KINETIC ATTACK SCENARIO The following scenario envisages a well-funded extremist collective called ‘God’s Justice for Earth’s Poor’. Envisaged as a mix of various known extremist-conspiratorial groups and militias that currently exist, this could be an interfaith-based ideology strongly oriented towards conspiratorial and extreme beliefs broadly characterised as anti-capitalist-elites, anti-world government and antitechnology. They are multi-national, funded by donations from a variety of wealthy conspiratorial believers in the West. The group have found safe-harbour in an equatorial located collapsed state, in an environmentally devastated desert region, where they have occupied an re-engineered

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a former insurgency tunnel system. The tunnels have been turned into a rocket building factory. The group has designed a rudimentary small-lift launch vehicle (based on various designs for a) three-stage 25 meters tall rocket, with a first stage diameter of two meters, tapering at its upper stage to 1.5 meters, with a payload of under 250 kilograms.

It is able to carry its payload up to around 300 kilometres in Low Earth Orbit. The rockets are simple stainless steel fabrication, using old rocket engine components, and 3D-printed copies of well-known designs from some of the World’s most successful Space Launch Companies. The fuel type is also easy to collect and store, such as a kerosene liquid oxygen mix. Some of the technician-workers are former Space Industry employees, and recent converts. The plan is to launch several rockets from tunnels, where the group have excavated-out launch pits, or use converted flatbed trucks carrying launch rigs. Not all the rockets are expected to work, however the more that can be launched in a salvo the greater the odds, for a successful set of detonations in Space. The rockets are rudimentary and closely related to the old Soviet SCUD-like ballistic missiles.

The programmed rockets are designed to fly into Low Earth Orbit, and detonate simple explosive warheads that are packed with large tungsten balls. The group’s plan is to introduce several debris clouds into Low Earth Orbit, with

INTERNATIONAL SPACE TABLE 1: SPACE TERRORISM AND PIRACY INCIDENTS LIST (1972 – 2018) 1

1972

2

1984 (3 August)

The Black September Palestinian Group threatened an attack against the Apollo 17 mission, specifically to murder or kidnap the crew or their families.

Two days before the launch of an Ariane satellite, the French left-wing group Action Directe bombed the European Space Agency’s Paris headquarters, injuring six people.

Hackers seized control of a British military communications satellite with a home computer.

3

1999

4

2002 (June)

China’s Falun Gong Spiritual Movement overrode the broadcast signals of nine China Central Television stations and 10 provincial stations and replaced the programming with their content

4

2002 (June)

China’s Falun Gong Spiritual Movement overrode the broadcast signals of nine China Central Television stations and 10 provincial stations and replaced the programming with their content

5

2003

NASA increased security for the Columbia shuttle launch, out of concern that al-Qaeda would attack the launch pad because of an Israeli astronaut on the flight.

6

2004

China’s Falun Gong Spiritual Movement disrupted AsiaSat signals for four hours.

7

2006

Mobile satellite communication signal provided by Thuraya Satellite Telecommunications was jammed from three widely-separated locations inside Libya.

The same/similar incident was also reported having effected one of the satellites in Britain’s Skynet system, which delivers communications services to the Royal Air Force and other armed forces units, seized by hackers over a weekend. The British government was then the victim of an alleged blackmail threat following the attack.

Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) hacked-hijacked the Intelsat Ltd. Intelsat-12 satellite in geosynchronous orbit, and used a vacant Ku-band transponder to broadcast-beam their propaganda into Sri Lanka and across the Indian subcontinent without Intelsat‘s knowledge for over a year. Intelsat continuously tried to interrupt LTTE’s pirating. However, the LTTE was able to continue its satellite piracy for two years. Intelsat decided to shut down the satellite transponder in late April, 2007.

8

2005–2007 (April)

9

2010 (October)

10

2013

A letter threatening terror attacks was found at an Indian Space Research Organisation facility in Bangalore, India.

11

2015

The European Space Agency was hacked by the group Anonymous, resulting in the leak of thousands of credentials.

12

2015

An Indian Space Research Organisation computer was infected with malware, which could have given hackers control of rocket launches and satellite separation.

13

2018 (Admitted).

Events prior to 2011.

NASA computers experienced more than 5,400 incidents of malicious software or unauthorized access, in some cases described as having full control over those networks.

Insurgency used jamming during Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-2011). Deliberately jammed commercial satellite communications links used by the U.S. military.

the potential to destroy satellites. However, their real aim is leveraging popular culture fears creating global financial and political panic. The group also intend to pirate several communications satellites where they will broadcast as long as possible globally their beliefs and claims. Claiming that the attack on the Earth’s satellites is punishment for global capitals’ system of control, and the preserve of Space for the wealthy, at the expense of the World’s poor.

This scenario is guided by the immense technological complexity for creating an actual guided ASAT – seen as the high-mark of Space Weaponization threats, and which has been largely rejected as a plausible Space Terrorist scenario (Coleman, 2017; Bernat, 2019). As an alternative, a relatively crude and low-tech solution has been substituted using a SCUD-like ballistic missile, seeking to create a set of bursts in Space presenting an indiscriminate threat to the Earth’s Satellite Layer (Miller, 2019). This is based on the following scenario: “Attacks on satellites with SCUD-like ballistic missiles that do not have homing capabilities would have low probability of success, and would be limited to only the lowest altitude satellites. Such an attack with a conventional warhead containing shrapnel would need to place the debris cloud in the direct path of the satellite. This would require fairly precise tracking – a capability available only to highly sophisticated militaries.” (Federation of

American Scientists) However, it should be noted that a low-tech scenario for satellite tracking was demonstrated in the 1950s, in the United States, that: “proved that this required only a minimal technology approach: amateur satellite observers used stopwatches, sky maps, personal computers and sometimes binoculars to determine satellites’ orbital elements. Hence, tracking can be done using common and inexpensive electronics with minimal training. This is in line with U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph’s concern about non-governmental satellite observers tracking satellites and posting their orbits on the internet, which can possibly … [be]… used by terrorist organizations.” (Remuss, 2009) Another scenario has been provision from a rogue government, or conversion of an existing craft: “In addition to a State producing and furnishing a terrorist group with an Anti-Satellite Weapon … the development of a delivery system by a terrorist group on its own through conversion of either an anti-ship cruise missile or a small airplane or by building a cruise missile themselves is also feasible.” (Remuss, 2009) The scenario envisaged in this paper, has its fictional terrorist group largely replicating typical small-lift launch vehicles and launch pads. Not unlike that being currently developed by a number of Space Launch Companies.

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SPACE TERRORISM Since 1972, there have been several terrorism, and piracy incidents that can be linked to the Space Industry, and these are set-out in Table 1: Space Terrorism and Piracy Incidents List (1972 – 2018). While some of these incidents are historically known events, others in particular the hacking events are disputed. Britain’s Ministry of Defence denies its military communications satellites were hacked in a 2002 incident (CNET, 2002).

Broadly, the following trends can be identified: (1) Murder and kidnap threats (1972); (2) Space Agency bombing (1984); (3) Multiple hacking incidents (19992018); (4) Launch pad attack (2003); and, (5) Lettercorrespondence threatening terror attacks at a Space research organization facility (2013). The trend pattern so far tracks with the historical transition of terrorism and extremist violence that has progressed from murder, kidnaping, and bombings; to more recent widespread use of cyber-attacks, hacking and pirating communications.

Acts of possible sabotage have been claimed in Space Terrorism literature, in relation to the 2015 twentyyear-old U.S. Air Force Defence Meteorological Satellite Program Flight 13(DMSP-F13) craft explosion. The event was attributed officially by United States authorities to a power failure, and minimized the events significance (Bernat, 2019).

It has been claimed that the public delay in admitting the incident was an attempt to hide an, “actual act of sabotage … Of course, for obvious reasons, it is difficult to determine what truly happened.” (Bernat, 2019) A scenario commonly identified in the Space Terrorism literature, is where an entity or group acting illicitly, get a commercial launch provider to put a satellite into orbit, for what would otherwise be a legitimate Space Industry activity. This situation was claimed in the case of, “the launch of four rogue satellites on Indian PSLV launch vehicle on 12 January 2018.” (Bernat, 2019) The satellites belonged to Swarm Technologies – a Space start-up based in California. The company had originally been denied placing them in orbit, the: “denial of the experimental license was based on concerns the satellites were too small to be effectively tracked by the U.S. Military’s Space Surveillance Network (SSN), which provides safety of flight information to other operators. Subsequent to the unlicensed launch, the FCC revoked another Swarm license for a planned upcoming launch on Rocket Lab’s Electron in April 2018. As of March 23, 2018, neither Swarm nor any of its known investors have commented on the situation.” (Christensen, 2018) A basic question licence denial instances raise is that of forum shopping. This is where an entity or group are able to find a launch provider in another country, or through thirdparties, and get access to a launch with little in the way of international scrutiny. It has been noted that: “If it was possible for an American company to place in the orbit unlicensed satellites, it seems, that any other agent, including weak actors adversaries … could do the same.” (Bernat, 2019) Terrorists and extremist use of Space, in the Space

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Terrorism literature has also been raised in relation to the problem of Shutter-Control. The problem is with the proliferation of quality real-time intelligence from remote sensing satellites operated by commercial entities, for which there is little regulation nationally, or internationally (Townsend, 2021). It could be argued, terrorists and extremist could source Commercial Satellite Imagery informing their targeting, planning and post-attack assessment processes.

This scenario was identified in the early 2000s: “A terrorist organization could also use commercial images to learn exactly where the troops of a target state are and how their facilities (embassies, military bases, etc.) are laid out. A terrorist attack on the model of the attack of the American vessel USS Cole in the port of Aden in October 2000 could be organized using Space imagery.”

(Nardon, 2002)

CONSPIRACY AND SPACE TERRORISM At one end of the spectrum, there are acts of violence made against the Space Industry, seeking to attack its launches, and launch facilities. This includes the Space Agencies as another government target. The early actual terrorist threats were part of the wider Israeli conflict, or an extension of violent radical agendas pursued in France – European Union, or India (See TABLE 1). While, at the other end of the spectrum there is a terrorist or extremist aim at disrupting, or stopping activities in Space per se. Which has led to one of the few actual definitions to emerge in the Space Terrorism literature; and it relates to, “an act of violence by one or more individuals or groups to prevent the development of a Space settlement(s) and/ or their aims including those of a Spaceship or Space Station during Man‘s exploration of Space” (Cain, 2016; Bernat, 2019).

However, other Space Terrorism literature authors, have sort to widen the definition of: “Space Terrorism as a purposeful and well thought-out act of destruction against Human and/or material resources of Space Industry undertaken by individuals or groups out of ideological motivation, where Space Industry is understood as an economic sector dedicated to producing components that go into Earth’s orbit or beyond, delivering them to those regions, and related services.” (Bernat, 2019) Problematically, these definitions are largely underpinned by the ‘rational actor’. Current Space Terrorism literature tends to identify terrorist and extremist actions as largely driven by ‘rational ends’ (Miller, 2019). While the outcome aspects of the definitions are not in dispute, it can be argued that there is also a significant irrational aspect which needs to be considered – the role of conspiracy thinking as a motivation for Space Terrorism.

From around 2016, one of the most common conspiracy theories found in tabloid reporting, YouTube, Twitter, and various other forum involved the failure of a NASA-SpaceX mission: “Several conspiracy theorists have taken to Twitter today to explain their bizarre theories. One user tweeted: ‘NASA don’t exist. Gov did it fake every time. They were having issues with green screen this time and hence they postponed the launch.’ Another wrote: ‘I watched the live

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feed for 5 hours and they didn’t launch … Clearly they were trying to find a way to fake it just like they did the Moon landing! Be better NASA.’” (Best, 2020) Older beliefs involving the launch failure of a rocket, had led commenters on a Space news and blogging site, claiming the explosion was the result of snipers or drones with lasers (Shear, 2016). Others claimed that, ‘it was a secret attack by aliens, which they claim can be seen in the footage from the failed launch.’ (Liberatore, 2016) Interestingly, in the conversation-comments section, in regards to an aerial phenomenon seen around a 2020 launch, one individual claimed: “It will be a type of drone scanning the rocket for nuclear weapons, if the scan proved positive the rocket plus nuclear load would have been neutralised.” (Jackson, 2020) This belief in rocket launches are being used to send weapons into Space, is not far from the QAnon belief contained in the infamous 2018 anti-Semitic conspiracy theory claiming ‘powerful Space lasers were used to start the California Camp wildfires’. Suggesting in this case powerful business interests were financing these SpaceBased weapons (Dutton, 2021).

More recent trends in Space Industry conspiracy can be found in the case of the well-published issues that SpaceX has been having with the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) over the problem-launches experienced by the Starship prototypes (SN8 and SN9).

As the saga was being reported, almost immediately on various Social Media Channels there was a proliferation of theories espoused by people in the comment section, that the ‘FAA was being paid-off to slow the progress of SpaceX’ (YouTube Video, 2021). Some adherents claimed involvement from rival Space Industry players further elaborating the conspiracy beliefs. Comments claiming these beliefs, also began to move rapidly from claimant to out-right advocacy.

The shift from claimant to advocacy on the part of a favourite company, or celebrity boss, is significant as it also starts the process where ‘enemies’ are being identified, in this case: the FAA, U.S. Government, and powerful rival economic interests – all seeking to stop the progress of the anticipated colonisation of Mars. Enemy identification (and its advocacy), could also be seen emerging in the comments on a YouTube livestream channel. A somewhat exasperated commentator alluded to people in the online commentsdiscussion posts making references to the ‘Lizard people’ as somehow linked to the launching problems (YouTube Video, 2021). The distinctly QAnon meme of ‘Lizard people’ being espoused, illustrates the interpretive shift that can occur where individuals use the opportunity to articulate their individual beliefs, and create conspiratorial slurs against perceived ‘enemies’ in this case the FAA. Problematically, these comments – just talk – also start to shift towards a set of constructs increasingly being seen as the actual basis for potential future terrorism.

CONCLUSION

these as: ‘is this what people actually believe (or say these things)’. Instead, viewed in terms of Attractor Analysis, the question becomes: what is the focus of a belief? In the examples given, the long-standing belief is an antagonism aimed at NASA, claiming it to be behind the ‘Moon Landing Hoax’. This connects to a much more corrosive political belief in the untrustworthiness of government. In the past, the themes of alien attacks, abductions, UFO coverups, and a secret government, have all largely fallen outside the actual realm of Space Terrorism. The actual attackers have been history’s conventional terrorists, such as: the Black September Palestinian Group; or, the French left-wing group Action Directe, who identified as Libertarian Communists, who formed an urban guerrilla organization, committing assassinations and violent attacks in France between 1979 and 1987. Whereas, China’s Falun Gong Spiritual Movement, and Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), largely sort to utilize the existing national satellites in their own countries as a means to communicate their message. In other cases, terrorist groups have used satellite telecommunications in conjunction with the Hawala: an ancient system of fund transfers based on trust (Feldman, 2006). Rogue attacks from Libya, or hackers, largely fall into attempts at denial of service attacks and have a largely profit motive, seeking to extort money.

Whereas Insurgency actions use denial of service attacks to frustrate rival militaries.

A terrorist and extremist focus on the Space Industry as a cause celebre has only recently materialized. Conspiracy advocates have been traditionally marginal elements, that in terms of actual real-world terrorism, and extremism resulting in violent attacks have been non-existent. The dramatic rise in violent conspiracy attacks since the start of the pandemic, over 2020, and 2021, has been aimed at technology such as the 5G networks, and have been anti-government, and anti-security/policing attacks.

There is a considerable belief system – that is historically rooted in popular culture, seeing the Space Industry as the mega-hub of all conspiracies. This paper began with an imagined terrorist collective attempting to build and launch SCUD-like ballistic missiles into Space in an attempt to interfere with the Earth’s Satellite Layer. This fictional account has been proposed as a means to question one of the current assumptions made by the Space Terrorism literature that ultimately terrorists and extremists will have the same capabilities as any other Space Force, acquiring ASAT technology as a means to launch a direct attack on a satellite. That scenario could only be accomplished with the aid of a rogue state, as a type of third-party deniable strategy to inflict a military loss on the United States, or any other of the Space fairing countries. It is contended that this is not the only scenario, as a low-tech strike may in fact be a more likely event, conducted by a group who fall well outside the conventional terrorist model, and who are not motivated by real-world political aims; but are simply intent on ‘burning the current order down’.

The common mistake in building a Space Terrorism threat analysis, is to focus on outlandish beliefs – dismissing

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