Warrin Team Market Update | Q3 2025 Newsletter

Page 1


SAN FRANCISCO

PAUL WARRIN

Paul

paul@warrinteam.com

Fall in San Francisco is a season of gentle contrasts crisp mornings and golden afternoons, with the city often basking in its warmest weather of the year. The famous fog, which blankets much of the summer, begins to lift, revealing clear blue skies and breathtaking views of the bay. It’s the beginning of our second selling season in SF

After a slow summer, home sales in SF jumped 28% in September, year-over-year Single Family Home prices in Q3 stayed about the same, year-over-year, while the median Condo sales price dipped Condo price per square foot remained about the same, indicating more sales of entry-level and pied-a-terre condos, as local office workers and second home buyers re-entered the market

Meanwhile, the AI boom is not only driving rental prices to an all-time high, but creating more demand in the luxury home market, where sales in SF are up 14%, year-over-year. Some forecasts are predicting an influx of 50,000 tech workers in SF by 2030, so look for condo prices to continue their rebound as well

In other news, Kara and I are honored to be recognized once again as one of the Top 100 real estate teams across the entire Bay Area, as well as one of the Top 100 among all Sotheby’s International Realty agents and teams worldwide We’re so grateful for the trust you place in us and our team, and we truly appreciate the opportunity to serve you, your family, friends, and colleagues

As always, if you ’ re thinking about buying or selling, or just have a few questions, we are here to help. Don’t hesitate to reach out anytime we’d love to hear from you.

$2+ BILLION

WARRIN TEAM CAREER SALES VOLUME

#1 TEAM

AMONG GOLDEN GATE SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY AGENTS BY SALES VOLUME, 2024, 2023, 2022 IN MARIN & SAN FRANCISCO

TOP 100

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY 2023, 2024 AGENTS WORLDWIDE

TRENDING IN SF

Steph Curry’s S.F. Bourbon Bar with Michael Mina is Here

Bringing new energy and star power to Union Square’s revival

Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry is stepping into the hospitality world with his first-ever restaurant venture partnering with acclaimed chef Michael Mina to reopen Bourbon Steak and debut an adjoining whiskey bar, The Eighth Rule, at the Westin St Francis in Union Square. The project marks a homecoming for Mina, whose first namesake restaurant opened in the same historic hotel two decades ago, and a bold new chapter in Union Square’s ongoing revival

Opening October 10, the reimagined Bourbon Steak brings back Mina’s most celebrated creations from his iconic tuna tartare mixed tableside to the decadent lobster pot pie alongside new, over-the-top offerings like a caviar “Twinkie,” Wagyu tartare torched tableside, and an exclusive six-person chef’s experience offered twice nightly. The menu also highlights locally inspired dishes, such as whole Dungeness crab with fregola risotto and uni butter, and a roaming seafood cart serving the day’s fresh catch

The glamorous, 120-seat dining room, redesigned by New York design firm AvroKO, preserves the hotel’s Art Deco grandeur while introducing contemporary touches custom marble floors, green velvet booths, walnut millwork, and potted palms all anchored by a central wraparound bar

Adjacent to the restaurant, The Eighth Rule offers a more intimate, reservations-only experience showcasing Curry’s Gentleman’s Cut bourbon The moody, 40-seat lounge serves an omakase-style cocktail tasting and inventive drinks like a truffle-vanilla whiskey sour and Calabrian chili tequila highball, complemented by refined bites such as tuna toro “cigars” and Mina’s signature burger

Together, Bourbon Steak and The Eighth Rule blend sports star charisma, culinary artistry, and timeless San Francisco style a fitting addition to Union Square’s culinary comeback and a must-visit destination for food and whiskey lovers alike. San Francisco Chronicle

and more Bay Area real estate news

San Francisco’s office market is showing new signs of strength thanks to major AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, which are taking down large blocks of space OpenAI alone has secured nearly 1 million sq. ft. in Mission Bay, while Anthropic continues to expand downtown This wave of demand is projected to cut the city’s vacancy rate currently about 34 6% by half over the next five years, signaling renewed confidence in San Francisco as a hub for innovation and investment The Real Deal

ents Surpass Pre-Pandemic Highs as Home es Fall

an rent for 2-bedroom reached all-time peak of 00/month

rancisco’s rental market has officially surpassed premic levels The median one-bedroom rent hit $3,520 in mber, edging past the previous 2019 peak of $3,500, while edroom units climbed to a record $5,000 This surge is fueled by an influx of high-paying AI and tech jobs ned with stricter return-to-office requirements, creating g demand in a market where supply remains tight eal Deal

Apple Design Pioneer Jony Ive Drops $73M on edere Properties

st purchase adds to AI founder’s Bay Area real te holdings

ve, Apple’s legendary former head of design, has made a move in Marin’s luxury market acquiring four Belvedere s for roughly $73 million The portfolio includes the mark “Locksley Hall” estate, three Golden Gate Avenue ences, and a waterfront property on Beach Road The ase highlights the enduring appeal of Belvedere’s ultray market and continued confidence from high-profile s The Real Deal

$2,999,000

$14,000,000

WARRIN TEAM SF

$2,695,000

$2,340,000

$1,750,000

$830,000

FEATURED PROPERTIES

FOR SALE

99 BRIGHTON, BOLINAS

$9,950,000 FOR SALE

1 TARA VIEW, TIBURON

$9,250,000

FOR SALE

84 EASTVIEW, TIBURON

$2,997,000

FOR SALE

24 VENADO, TIBURON

$2,595,000

WARRIN TEAM MARIN

FOR SALE

31 KNOLL, MILL VALLEY

$2,295,000

SOLD

136 AVENIDA MIRAFLORES, TIBURON

$3,250,000

SOLD

3175 PARADISE, TIBURON

$3,450,000

DISTRICT 1 SALES

RICHMOND/LAKE STREET/SEA CLIFF

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

SUNSET AND PARKSIDE

DISTRICT 3 SALES

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

FOREST KNOLLS TO WESTWOOD PARK

DISTRICT 5 SALES

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Q32025vs Q32024

Q32025vs Q32024

DISTRICT 6 SALES

LOWER PACIFIC HEIGHTS TO HAYES VALLEY

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Q32025vs Q32024

DISTRICT 7 SALES

MARINA TO PACIFIC HEIGHTS

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

Q32025vs Q32024

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES DISTRICT

NORTH BEACH TO DOWNTOWN

DISTRICT 9 SALES

SOUTH BEACH TO BERNAL HEIGHTS

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

POWER OF THE BRAND

TRUSTED TO SELL YOUR MOST VALUED ASSET

SOTHEBY’S

Sotheby’s Auction House has over 200 years of history selling our clients’ treasures Our association with the brand ensures stellar representation, brings cachet to your property and allows us access to affluent buyers around the world

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY

With our distinguished global referral network we can find qualified buyers or quality agents for your next purchase from around the globe. Our listings achieve maximum sale price.

1,100 OFFICES

$157B

GLOBAL SALES VOLUME IN 2024

26,100 SALES ASSOCIATES

65M+ VIDEO PLAYS IN 2024 #1 MOST PROFILED LUXURY REAL ESTATE BRAND IN THE NEWS

84 COUNTRIES

33M+ VISITS TO SOTHEBYSREALTY COM

SAN FRANCISCO

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

SAN FRANCISCO

CONDOS

HOME TRANSFORMAT

We revitalized this Bernal Heights home with a fresh coat of paint, new hardwood flooring, and elegant Calacatta countertops. The once dated kitchen, characterized by tiled floors, worn wooden cabinetry, and older appliances, was transformed into a bright and airy space that radiates modern sophistication This impressive renovation perfectly highlights the beautifully updated heart of the home This property received multiple offers and sold well above asking price

BAY AREA & BEYOND

FEATURED LISTING

VILLA DEL PRATO | PORTOLA VALLEY, CALIFORNIA

$65,000,000 USD 5 Beds | 7 Full Baths | 2 Partial | 21,000 Sq. Ft. | 12 Acres

Villa del Prato is a one-of-a-kind 12-acre estate in Portola Valley offering more than 20,000 sq ft of living space across three structures: a 12,000-sq -ft residence, a 6,500-sq -ft entertainment/business building, and a 2,000-sq -ft pool house Designed in 2021 by the award-winning team of Andrew Skurman and Suzanne Tucker, the property evokes the timeless elegance of classical Italian villas with soaring ceilings, arching windows, indoor-outdoor loggias, and meticulous stone and wood craftsmanship

The main home includes four bedrooms, seven baths, a bespoke kitchen, elevator, family room with stage, wine cave, and a Chanel-inspired dressing suite that doubles as a safe room The owner ’ s wing offers dual baths, a private office, and a serene loggia Beyond, the pool house provides guest accommodations, a gym, and a gourmet kitchen alongside a resort-style pool, while the entertainment building is fully equipped for customization perfect for hosting, working, or transforming into a private venue

For more information on this listing and others from our San Francisco Peninsula partners, call us at 415 289 8999

LITTLE LAKE LODGE | ASPEN, COLORADO

$300,000,000 USD 18 Beds | 20 Full Baths | 4 Partial | 27,426 Sq. Ft. | 74.1 Acres

Amid the tranquility of the Rocky Mountains, just outside the storied resort town of Aspen, this incomparable 74-acre estate represents an unprecedented opportunity to own a lovingly, painstakingly created and maintained alpine compound that can never be matched or replicated

The property borders public land, yet downtown Aspen is a mere mile away, easily reached via a bucolic riverside stroll, a short bicycle ride, or a quick drive Decades of vigilant development and care has resulted in a virtual private ecosystem The gentle terrain is home to miles of formally marked trails groomed in winter for cross-country skiing a lake teeming with thriving trout, a vibrant habitat for all manner of birds and wildlife, a refreshing infinity-edge 80 foot pool, breezy covered and open-air terraces for basking in the view, and frontage on the Roaring Fork River In this luxurious compound, every amenity is in place

For more information on this listing and others from our Colorado partners, call us at 415 289 8999

BAY AREA & BEYOND

FEATURED LISTING

THE RIVER HOUSE | WILSON, WYOMING

$60,000,000 USD 6 Beds | 6 Full Baths | 1 Partial | 8,583 Sq. Ft. | 36.14 Acres

Situated on arguably the best parcel in Crescent H with expansive Teton views and prime Snake River frontage, this newly constructed project, completed in 2023 and designed by renowned architect Wallace Cunningham, is a living sculpture Its connection to its surroundings is profound, with the natural beauty of Fish Creek, Grand Teton views, and wildlife like elk, moose, and eagles enhancing its setting The architecture seamlessly integrates with the landscape, nestled into a stream curve, with a parallel pool reflecting both the mountains and the house The sweeping sculptural roof and lofty interiors blur the boundaries between indoors and outdoors, creating inviting spaces for private enjoyment or entertaining The formal entrance leads to a great room and a large office area, all surrounded by glass The private primary suite features large closets, a stone tub, and a walk-in stone shower with Teton views, followed by a stunning bedroom area Five private en-suite guest rooms occupy the southern end, adjacent to the main living area, professional-grade kitchen, and glass-enclosed formal dining area at the home's center The lower level includes an additional office, a wine storage room, and an attached three-car garage, completing the property

For more information on this listing and others from our Jackson Hole partners, call us at 415 289 8999

CYPRESS DRIVE | PEBBLE BEACH, CALIFORNIA

$57,500,000 USD 6 Beds | 7 Full Baths | 3 Partial | 11,223 Sq. Ft. | 2.24 Acres

Presenting one of the most valuable street-to-sea parcels on the West Coast, a trophy asset in every sense, and an extraordinary opportunity to possess one of the most iconic properties in all of Pebble Beach 'Gem Cove' is located on two lots of record on an ocean front parcel of land next to the Lodge, with unobstructed ocean views to the 18th fairway, Stillwater Cove, Carmel Beach, Point Lobos and beyond Truly a once-in-a-lifetime opening to secure your position in one of the most sought-after areas in the world Built on a prime 2 24± acre parcel of coveted CA real estate, is this unforgettable European-esque estate is guaranteed to astound, impress and amaze the most astute buyer From the substantial living room to the chef's kitchen/great room, the expansive primary bedroom suite to the expertly curated grounds, all with big ocean views - you will love living here, entertaining family and hosting guests at this prestigious estate Located within minutes of world-class golf, Michelin-level dining, and elite networks, this property offers not just lifestyle, but legacy Whether as a long-term family estate, strategic investment, or a rare coastal retreat, 'Gem Cove' presents the kind of opportunity that seldom comes Don't miss it

For more information on this listing and others from our Carmel partners, call us at 415 289 8999

BAY AREA & BEYOND

$55,131,965 USD 6 Beds | 6 Full Baths | 2 Partial | 14,418 Sq. Ft. | 0.6276 Acres

Set high above the iconic St Jean Beach, Villa Neo is an award-winning six-bedroom estate offering panoramic vistas and unparalleled luxury Ideal for extended families or gatherings of friends, this two-level masterpiece showcases an expansive main-level deck boasting outdoor living spaces, a movie screen, and one of the island's largest pools a sprawling 108-foot oasis, complete with an overflowing Jacuzzi

Villa Neo is fully air-conditioned and thoughtfully designed The first floor hosts two kitchens, one of which is a chef's dream, a spacious living room, a media room, and a dazzling entertainment room Two bedrooms, including one of the premiere suites, open onto the deck, while a third enjoys a tranquil garden view An elegant glass staircase leads to the upper level, home to an office, an additional premier suite and two connecting guest bedrooms with ocean views and private terraces Each of the six bedrooms boasts a beautifully appointed en-suite bath, with soaking tubs and generous dressing rooms in the premier suites

FEATURED LISTING For more information on this listing and others from our St Barth partners, call us at 415 289 8999

GLASS HOUSE | CRYSTAL BAY, NEVADA

$45,000,000 USD 4 Beds | 4 Full Baths | 1 Partial | 9,976 Sq. Ft. | 0.491 Acres

Architecturally significant and masterfully engineered, this nearly 10,000 sq ft residence is one of Lake Tahoe's most striking modern homes Designed by internationally acclaimed architect Mark Dziewulski, the estate is sculpted of glass and steel and perched above 98 feet of pristine Crystal Bay shoreline A commercial-grade elevator encased in glass, a five-story floating staircase of layered glass, and floor-to-ceiling windows that tilt the eye toward the lake every element is a feat of design and innovation

The home features 4-bedrooms, 4 5 baths, multiple lounge spaces, a dedicated spa and wellness center with gym, steam room, and a hot tub that fills and drains at the touch of a button The upper-level great room and butler's kitchen open to a heated lakeview deck through a massive pivoting glass door, perfect for entertaining Custom cabinetry, radiant heat, recessed blinds, a heated driveway, and a large full-home generator deliver comfort with elevated precision

For more information on this listing and others from our Sierra partners, call us at 415 289 8999

A TASTE OF SAN FRANCISCO

HIGHLIGHTING SAN FRANCISCO’S BEST NEW RESTAURANTS

Super Mensch

2336 Chestnut

Super Mensch serves up New York–style deli classics in the Marina, from pastrami and bagels to giant chocolate cake and babka Old Fashioneds

Sam Wo Restaurant

713 Clay

Sam Wo’s, a late-night SF legend for 116 years, closed in early 2025 but was revived this September with classics and new dishes like BBQ pork noodle

ll h d i i

Al Pastor Papi

232 O'farrell

Al Pastor Papi found a permanent home through SF’s Vacant to Vibrant program, drawing long lines for its famed quesabirria and super burritos

NoPa Fish

1 Ferry Building

Nopa Fish, a Ferry Building spin-off from the Nopa team, shines with dishes like smoked trout latkes and beet hummus

Crustacean

195 Pine

Crustacean reopened in July 2025 in the Financial District with its signature Dungeness crab and garlic noodles, plus new dishes, upscale ambiance, and serious cocktails

The Happy Crane

451 Gough

Now on Gough Street, modern Cantonese takes center stage with bold plates like XO-sauced seafood stir-fries and quail roasted with the care of classic Cantonese duck

Parachute Bakery

1 Ferry Building

Parachute Bakery, from the Sorrel team, is SF’s new go-to for croissants, kouign amann, canelés, and coffee, with their next restaurant, Arquet, coming soon next door

Maritime Boat Club

417 Stockton, Second Floor

Maritime Boat Club, upstairs at the Palihotel, offers upscale seafood from oysters and mussels to the $125 “Kraken” tower best paired with fries and Old Bay aioli from the bar

Pacifico

205 Franklin

San Francisco’s pop-up scene is crowded, but Pacifico stands out with Colombian-inspired brunch at B-Side think Dungeness crab arepas and cheesy choclo pancakes

Via Aurelia

300 Toni Stone Crossing, STE A

From the Che Fico team, Via Aurelia brings Tuscan fine dining to Mission Rock with dishes like pappardelle with wild boar ragu, black cod with leeks, and multi-course tasting menus

Fikscue Thrive City

7 Warriors Way, Suite 208

Alameda favorite Fikscue has landed at Thrive City, serving smoked Texas brisket and Indonesian fried rice Thursday–Sunday until sold out

Jules

237 Fillmore

At Jules on Fillmore, the spicy, flavorpacked half chicken rivals Zuni’s famed bird though you’ll still want to save room for pizza and ice cream

Bosco

888 Brannan

Replacing Bellota, Bosco brings Italian flair with fresh pastas like buckwheat chitarra, Bologna-style tigelle, and hearth-smoked dishes such as pork ribs agrodulce

3251 20th Avenue, STE 221

The Wong family brings Le Soleil to Stonestown Mall, where the next generation serves creative dishes like pho risotto and tartare with shrimp crackers

Side A

2814 19th

Parker and Caroline Brown bring elevated Midwest fare to the Mission, paired with Bryan Overstreet’s Coffee Movement drinks, donuts, and coffee soft serve

Sōhn 2535 3rd

Sōhn, from Deuki Hong and Janet Lee, is an all-day Korean café serving dishes like galbi patty melts and spicy noodle salad, plus inventive drinks like yuja espresso tonics

As featured in

Le Solei

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