Florida’s Population – Booming, But Long Run Changes Coming
• Florida has returned closer to the ~300k+ annual population increase of the last several decades
• The last several years have brought almost unprecedented net population growth to the state
• Florida’s older adult population (aged 65+) still is central to this growth
• Continued diversification is inevitable and a powerful force to the state’s demographic mix
• But major changes lie in the years ahead due to massive changes in fertility rates and family formation related to changing social norms
Florida has generally added ~3 million net new residents each decade since 1960 and the 2020s appear on pace to reach that again. Looking ahead, there is growing confidence that this historic net decadal change will end in the 2030s, mainly due to massive changes in family formation and fertility rates.
The Florida Economy Remains Strong…
But Uncertainty Abounds
• Florida’s full rebound from the COVID recession has outpaced the US as a whole
• Unemployment remains low, wages are trending up in the state, and labor force participation has steadied at below historic levels and is projected to fall due to an aging population
• Inflation is lower, but fluctuating, and consumer sentiment remains low and pessimistic
• State economic recovery is quite uneven, with many still struggling rural counties
• The future is stunningly uncertain (more later on that)
Housing Inventory: Median Listing Price in Florida (MEDLISPRIFL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Central Florida Markets
Northeast Florida Markets
Souttheast Florida Markets
Florida Panhandle Markets
Florida Median Days on Market 2016-2024
Housing Inventory: Median Days on Market in Florida (MEDDAYONMARFL) |
FRED | St. Louis Fed
Index 1980: Q1 = 100
Zillow Home Value Index for All Homes 2016-2024
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for All Homes Including Single-Family Residences, Condos, and CO-OPs in Florida (FLUCSFRCONDOSMSAMID) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Florida Monthly SF Home Permits 1988-2024
New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits: 1-Unit Structures for Florida (FLBP1FH) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
Florida Rental Vacancy Rates 1986-2023
Rental Costs Continue to Rise, Getting Worse than US
The State Budget Is Sound But Spending Growth is Likely to Slow
• At the state budget level, this remains a time of relative plenty in Florida
• Compared to many states, Florida has a sound, bustling, growing economy
• A short COVID-recession, strong real estate market, and return to robust tourism have contributed to sizable surpluses and reserves in recent years
• The time of plenty appears to be coming to an end, though, with the EDR projecting budgetary tightening in the next few years
Doc Stamp Revenues Are Down, But Still Substantial
How to Best
Summarize the Current US and Florida Economic Landscape
MAJOR Unknowns
• Tariffs
• Federal downsizing
• Immigration enforcement
• Changing federal priorities
• Reduced research dollars
• Inflation Interest rates
• Recession, Slowdown, or Economic Growth??
Macroeconomic impacts of all of the above are unknown
