September 8, 2022 Monroe County Roadway Vulnerability Analysis Rhonda Haag Chief Resilience Officer Florida Planning Conference 2022
Monroe County
2 300+ Miles of County-Maintained Roads. Roads are Low-lying and subject to inundation. Need to determine which roads to elevate, how high to elevate, and when to elevate. The Florida Keys
3 Completion of Conceptual Design (Neighborhood Areas) Completion of the Cost Estimates Completion of the Adaptation Plan
A. Project Goals and Capital Plan
B. Analysis Complete!
Develop planning level cost estimates for Countywide roadway adaptation.
Provide supporting technical information to facilitate roadway adaptation projects.
Roadway Vulnerability Analysis
Develop a roads adaptation plan to mitigate projected Sea Level Rise (SLR) impacts on roadways for long term resilience in the Keys.
SLR Condition: NOAA 2017 Intermediate-High SE FL Regional Climate Compact Updated Projections 2019 Sea Level Rise Projections +43 inches Year 2022 Water Level +11 inches +10.5 inches +1.5 inches 2025 2045 2060 2100 +5.5ft 78years 4 6 ft 66 inches
Monroe County Roadway Vulnerability 5 2035 2.0’ of depth 2045 2.5’ of depth 2060 3.5’ of depthVulnerabilityCurrentFuturePredictions
Stillwright Point – N Blackwater Lane
(2020) Avenue G- Big Pine(2020)
Project Update
ProjectScope andStatus Task Engineering2:Analysis Task Concept3:Development Task Policy4:Review&Regulations Task Stakeholder5:&PublicOutreach Task Implementation6:Plan Task Data1:Collection 100% 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 7
Criticality Evaluations Factors PercentagesWeighting Vulnerability and Criticality Assessment Step 1 Step 2 5%Wetlands/NaturalHabitatsassociatedwithRoadSegment 5%RoadwayFunctionalClassificationandEvacuationsRoutes 3%Non-ResidentialFocusSpeciesassociatedwithRoadSegment 50%VulnerabilityScore 25%NumberofResidentialUnits 10%RoadwaysAssociatedwithCriticalFacilities(Police,Fire,etc.) VulnerabilityFactorsEvaluation PercentagesWeighting 5%RoadwaySurfaceWaveImpactPotential 5%RoadwayExistingPavementCondition 60%RoadwaySurfaceInundationDepth 25%RoadwayGroundwaterClearance 5%RoadwayInundationDuetoStormSurge 8 2%T&EandFocusSpeciesAssociatedwithRoadSegment Influenced by Human Factors Influenced by Environmental Factors
Concept Design
Stinger Rd
Right Of Way Right Of Way
Tavernier Ocean Shores – Stinger Road 10 Stinger Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 0.9 FT (NAVD88)
Right Of Way
2045 SLR Water Levels 11
Right Of Rd
Way Stinger Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 0.9 FT (NAVD88) SLR projected 2.26ElevationWaterFT(NAVD88) (Approximately 16” above existing ground) Stinger
Edge Of Pavement Elevation raised by approximately 16” above existing ground with stormwater system to mitigate King Tides.
12
Right Of Way
Right Of Way
Proposed Improvements
Stinger Road
Stinger Rd
Lowest existing roadway elevation 0.9 FT (NAVD88)
2045 SLR projected water level elevation 2.26 FT
Proposed Improvements with 2045 Sea Level Rise Water Levels 13
Stinger Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 0.9 FT (NAVD88)
Right Of Way
Right Of Way
Stinger Rd
Right Of
Proposed Improvements with 2045 Sea Level Rise + King Tide Water Levels 14
Right Of Way
Way 2045 SLR+KT projected water level elevation 3.40 FT Stinger Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 0.9 FT (NAVD88) Stinger Rd Additional 14 inches of elevation required for King Tide water levels
Tavernier Ocean Shores – Dubonnet Road 15 Dubonnet Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 1.46 FT (NAVD88)
Right Of Way Right Of Way
Dubonnet Rd
Right Of Way
2045 SLR Water Levels 16 Dubonnet Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 1.46 FT (NAVD88) Right Of Way SLR projected 2.26ElevationWaterFT(NAVD88) (Approximately 10” above existing ground)
Dubonnet Rd
Dubonnet Rd
Improvements 17
Right Of Way
Right Of Way
Proposed
Dubonnet Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 1.46 FT (NAVD88) Edge Of Pavement Elevation raised by approximately 10” above existing ground with stormwater system to mitigate King Tides.
Dubonnet Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 1.46 FT (NAVD88) 2045 SLR projected water level elevation 2.26 FT
Dubonnet Rd
Proposed Improvements with 2045 Sea Level Rise Water Levels 18
Right Of Way
Right Of Way
Right
Of Way Dubonnet Road Lowest existing roadway elevation 1.46 FT (NAVD88) 2045 SLR+KT projected water level elevation 3.40 FT Dubonnet Rd
Right Of Way
Proposed Improvements with 2045 Sea Level Rise + King Tide Water Levels 19
Additional 14 inches of elevation required for KT water levels
Adaptation Plan and Program Cost
28 Neighborhood areas Areas for 2035 $378,007,456 $683,432 (O&M) 10 Neighborhood areas Areas for 2025 $179,591,227 $339,356 (O&M) Adaptation Plan and Program Cost 21 49 Neighborhood areas Areas for 2025 $1,630,803$888,825,245(O&M) 2025 2030 10 Neighborhood areas Areas for 2035 $307,851$159,316,236(O&M) 2035 2035 Cost estimate is conceptual and does not include design, right-of-way acquisition, harmonization/cost to cure, and legal fees. Cost estimates are preliminary and subject to change. Cost Estimate is based on 2020 Dollars. * (SLR Condition: NOAA 2017 Intermediate-High + King Tides) Projected SLR + King Tides will affect the following: 2045 UnincorporatedCountywide% Miles of Vulnerable and Critical County Maintained Roadways 166 MI 53% # of Residential Units along County Maintained Roadways 13,399 Res. Units 76% $1.6 Billion* (Avg $9.6 Million / Mile) $3.0 Million Operation(Annual & Maintenance)
Total(Feet)Length
42-A Lower Keys Summerland Summerland Key Cove Amended / Summerland Key Cove 1St And 3Rd Summerland Estates Resubdivision 1119 0.21 $4,858,557.46
97 Project Areas in Total Top 12
30
15 Upper Keys Key Largo Buccaneer Point / Pirates Cove 1St Addition 3945 0.75 $9,125,359.68 Lower Keys Upper Sugarloaf Sugarloaf / SR 939B 4512 0.85 $8,469,966.57 Middle Keys Conch 2439 0.46 $6,485,135.65
36-A Lower Keys Little Torch
Coral Shores Estates Mobile Homes Ladies Acre Amended / Winward Beach Estates 6704 1.27 $38,169,514.70 59-B Lower Keys Key West Flagler Avenue 10450 1.98 $49,908,554.63 Upper Keys Key Largo Riviera Village Revised 2330 0.44 $8,247,776.89
5
Total Length (Miles) Cost Estimate
4 Upper Keys Key Largo Stillwright Point No. 1 / Stillwright Point No. 2 / Paradise Point Cove 9207 1.74 $20,947,411.35 Lower Keys Big Pine
Area Key Subdivision
2
AreaProjectNo.
24-A Upper Keys Key Largo Tavernier Ocean Shores 1682 0.32 $4,974,155.24
26
59-A Lower Keys Key West Eaton Street / Palm Avenue 3938 0.75 $11,139,005.27
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Doctor's Arm / Doctor's Arm 1st and 2nd Additions / Doctor's Arm 3rd Addition Sections A, B and C / 16588 3.14 $29,587,451.45 Upper Keys Key Largo Lake Surprise Estates 12188 2.31 $23,993,060.22
48
Project Website
24 www.keysroadsplan.com
25 www.keysroadsplan.com
26 www.keysroadsplan.com
What’s Next
Monroe County Proactive Planning Approach 28 County Wide Adaptation • Roads • Habitat/Resources • Elevate or mitigate County buildings • Infrastructure Private Response Achieving Resiliency = • Elevate or mitigate private structures • Lot fill and driveways • Shorelines • County services and assets • People • Habitat • Economy
29 “Failing to plan is planning to fail” (Alan Lakein) County Researching Funding Sources Discussion on private property adaptation policies Completion of Policy and Regulation Analysis Final Report and Presentation to County (September 2022) Next Steps
Thank You
