OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES – FDTCP 01/2011 Land Use Planning System : Its Role in Housing Development Process
should be divided according to a 5-year interval. For future housing demand, both manuals suggest forecasts according to housing category and type. It should also be noted that both manuals did not specify clear guidance on the forecasting techniques and aspects that need to be applied and considered in conducting housing forecasts. The absence of the guidance has left the SPs applying independently different housing forecasting techniques, from an integrated technique to a common and simple one. The integrated version of forecasting technique, as based on the view by Mark (1995), requires the housing forecasts to incorporate the figures of expected future household income (effective demand) and housing choices together with the figures of population growth, additional household, existing housing stock and housing deficit or surplus. The application of this technique could be considered as the most effective way to forecast future housing requirement for the planned areas (Blake and Nicol, 2004). Through this technique, the future housing forecast does not only produce a figure on the total housing needs (total quantity of future housing supply) required but also presents figures in the form of house categories, types and prices range preferred and afforded by the future households. In the context of development plans in Malaysia, only the first batch of SPs, namely Seremban SP, MBJB, Mukim Plentong and Pasir Gudang SP and Kuala Lumpur SP are identified to have attempted to apply the technique. Those SPs have considered the figures of expected future household income in the forecasting of future housing requirement for the areas. The common version of housing forecasting technique is found frequently applied in the development plans in Malaysia, including in the preparation of SP. This version only considers the figures of future population growth, housing aspects, such as existing stock, backlog, vacancy and surplus, immediate and normal replacement and additional new household for certain forecast periods. Considering the view by Mark (1995) and Blake and Nicol (2004), the application of this technique can be considered as less perfect compared to the previous technique. This is because it only indicates future housing requirement in the form of total quantity (total housing needs). Further, it is also found that there are several SPs, particularly the old version SPs which only used a simple technique to estimate future housing requirement. This technique usually only considers the aspect of future household growth. Through this technique, the total future housing requirement for certain areas is treated as equal to the total future household numbers (existing plus additional new household). The application of this technique could be considered weak and incomplete because it disregards many important aspects and figures, such as housing backlog (current shortage), vacancy and surplus of existing stock as well as the data on immediate and normal housing replacement as outlined by Field and MacGregor (1987) and Nooraini (1988).
Federal Department of Town and Country Planning, Peninsular Malaysia
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