Land use Planning System and Housing Development Process in Malaysia

87 3.3.3.2 Forecasting of Future Housing Requirement The process of forecasting of future housing requirement in the LP is basically similar to the preparation of SP (section 3.3.2.2). All LP manuals have stipulated that the outcome of future housing forecasts should be produced in two forms, that is in the form of broad housing requirement (total housing needs) as well as in the form of housing demands. The manuals also specify that the forecast of housing needs must be produced in two time-frames, which is by the overall planning period and a break-down by certain planning periods. The DP Manual 1981 suggested that the forecast must be divided based on a 5-year interval. In relation to the forecast of future housing demands, requirement for the forecasting in the form of category, type and prices of housing expected to be demanded by the future households in the planned areas were suggested by the LP Manual 1993. These aspects however were silenced in other LP manuals.

With regard to the application of forecasting techniques and aspects that need to be considered in calculating the future housing requirement, similar to the DP Manual 1981 and SSP Manual 2001, the LP manuals have also not specified any guidance. This has caused each LP to independently apply different housing forecasting techniques. As in the SP, there are at least three techniques that could be applied by the LP, ranging from an integrated technique to a common and a simple one. However, based on the examination of several LPs in Malaysia, namely Bandar Maharani LP, Bandar Kota Tinggi LP, Pontian – Pekan Nenas LP, Bandar Kluang LP, Batu Pahat District LP and Muar District LP, only a common forecasting technique is applied by those LPs. The application of the common forecasting technique, which only considers the figures of existing stock, backlog, vacancy and surplus, immediate and normal replacement and additional new household, has caused the forecasting of future housing requirement in those LPs to produce results only in the form of total housing needs. This technique can be considered less effective compared to the integrated forecasting technique which is capable of forecasting the future housing demands in terms of house category, type and price ranges preferred and afforded by the future households (Mark, 1995; Blake and Nicol, 2004).