| INTERNATIONAL HORSE MOVEMENT | deterioration, we have witnessed a recovery. Racing movements this year, despite Brexit, have been higher than in 2020—24% higher to and from the EU, and 59% higher to and from the rest of the world. But, while we must be optimistic that the worst effects of COVID are behind us, we cannot be so confident about Brexit. We just don’t know how owners’ and breeders’ behaviour will be modified in future years by the stark reality of their experience in this, ‘Year One’. Now that they know what the final bill added up to and how long it took for them to receive their VAT repayments, it is not unreasonable to surmise that they may choose not to repeat the exercise in the future.” Even given this year’s recovery, he noted that international runners between Britain and the EU have fallen by one-third against 2019 levels, and those with the rest of the world are down by 13%. “This means that EU owners and trainers have had fewer opportunities to test their horses against those in Britain, and races on both sides of the water have been weakened, both in their appeal to the public and as international testing grounds. “This could have a long-term damaging effect in an area where Europe leads the world. No fewer than 38 of the world’s top 100 races are run in Europe—more than Asia which has 23, Australasia 26 and the Americas 13. I mentioned the economic impact of European horse racing over €23bn per annum; much of this is linked to the quality of the races that are run here.” “Tracing a very different pattern have been non-racing movements (excluding Ireland), which were far more resilient to COVID than were racing movements but which have suffered post-Brexit in a way that racing movements have not. Movements for breeding and other purposes outnumber racing movements by around six to one. “Looking at movements between Britain and Continental EU— we don’t have these figures for Ireland because Britain and Ireland share a common Stud Book—we see they have more than halved, from 4,283 to 1,964. An indication of the ‘Brexit effect’ can be inferred from the fact that movements between Britain and the rest of the world only reduced by 13%, despite COVID. “Non-racing movements to and from Ireland have held up remarkably well, being within 4% of 2019 levels. Overall, thoroughbred journeys between Britain and the EU are one-third down on two years ago. “This isn’t just affecting racing. The European Equestrian Federation have told me that they have seen reduced numbers, both of British competitors at European events and Europeans travelling to Britain. And, taking the perspective of Ireland, we see a very similar picture. Non-racing movement of thoroughbreds between Ireland and the rest of the EU has fallen from 3,951 to 2,407—a 39% fall. “Overall movements to and from Ireland would appear to be down by one-quarter—less, therefore, than the one-third fall to and from Britain. As in Britain, racing movements have shown a recovery this year, whereas non-racing movements, except those to and from Britain which have been static, have continued to fall.” OVERALL THOROUGHBRED MOVEMENTS BRITISH PERSPECTIVE YEAR % INCREASE/REDUCTION * GB < > EU 2019 2020 2021 ’19 to ’21 ’19 to ’20 ’20 to ’21 Non-Racing Movements GB < > Ire 4286 4345 4150 -3 1 -4 1 Non-Racing Movements GB < > Other EU 4283 3760 1964 -54 -12 -48 2 Racing Movements GB < > EU (incl Ire) 2334 1034 1282 -45 -56 24 3 TOTAL GB < > EU 10903 9139 7396 -32 -16 -19 Non-Racing Movements GB < > Rest of World 1858 1555 1608 -13 -16 3 4 Racing Movements GB < > Rest of World 243 133 211 -13 -45 59 5 TOTAL GB < > Rest of World (ie Non-EU) 2101 1688 1819 -13 -20 8 6 TOTAL GB < > ALL COUNTRIES 13004 10827 9215 -29 -17 -15 Non-Racing Movements IRE < > GB 4286 4345 4150 -3 1 -4 7 Non-Racing Movements IRE < > Continental EU (ie Non-GB) 3951 3315 2407 -39 -16 -27 8 Non-Racing Movements IRE < > Rest of World (ie Non-EU) 624 529 382 -39 -15 -28 9 Racing Movements Ire < > GB Outbound 1356 516 785 -42 -62 52 10 Inbound GB < > REST OF WORLD (IE NON-EU) IRISH PERSPECTIVE 243 64 82 -66 -74 28 11 Racing Movements Ire < > Rest of EU (ie Non-GB) 80 53 81 1 -34 53 12 Racing Movements Ire < > Rest of World (ie Non EU) 91 60 51 -44 -34 -15 13 10631 8882 7938 -25 -16 -11 TOTAL IRE < > ALL COUNTRIES * Footnotes on Methodology/Source: 1,2,4,8,9 Source: Weatherbys/Weatherbys IRE, from Export Certificates, Breeding Clearance Notifications and General Notifications of Movement. 3,5 Source: Weatherbys. Based on No of Starts. Will overstate the true figure as some horses will not return to home country between each start. 3,5,10,11 Figures are available based on no. of individual runners, but they under-state the true figure, as many horses run more than once in the country concerned. 3 Switzerland included within EU. 5 Runners trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and Charlie Appleby excluded. 7 Source: Weatherbys/Weatherbys IRE, inferred from Covering Returns. Based on domicile of the owner, so will not fully accurately reflect base of the horse. 12 Source: HRI. 13: Available from HRI. ISSUE 76 TRAINERMAGAZINE.COM 13