| SID FERNANDO COLUMN |
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY? uddmonte Farms’ Arrogate, the champion three-year-old colt of 2016, has won seven of 11 starts and earned $17,302,600 – a record for a North American-trained racehorse – he entered the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but following two consecutive losses, in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap on July 22 and the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on August 19, he did not go off as the favorite in the race. It wasn’t that long ago, following emphatic wins in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes in January and the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airlines in March, that he was being heralded in the media as one of the all-time greats. But in a classic case of “What have you done for me lately?”, the big grey son of Unbridled’s Song’s stock has plummeted. His workouts leading up to the Classic had been put under the microscope by all types of “experts” on social media, and their consensus view is that Arrogate didn’t train as well as he did last year before he defeated California Chrome in a thriller of a Classic. Some of these same folks, however, had said the same thing about Arrogate before the Pegasus – there’d been an issue with his right hind foot that required a threequarter shoe – but Arrogate won that race in brilliant style Arrogate’s losses this year have all been at Del Mar, the site of the Breeders’ Cup, and the track’s surface has also been mentioned as a culprit. He’d run at Del Mar last year in an allowance race in early August that he’d won by “only” a length and a quarter, but in his next start, the Grade 1 Travers at Saratoga, he’d walloped a field by 13-and-a-half lengths at 11.70-1 in track-record time. I ran into Bob Baffert at this year’s Keeneland September sale, and Baffert mentioned the surface as an issue for Arrogate. But mainly he blamed himself for bringing the colt back to the races
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without enough of a foundation under him. It is notable that Arrogate ran well when beaten only a half-length in the Pacific Classic by the Baffert-trained Collected in the good time of 2:00.70 for 10 furlongs. He got a Ragozin figure of 0 from the race, better than the winner’s 2, and his Beyer of 114 was a point below Collected’s 115. Only Gun Runner’s 115 in the Woodward at nine furlongs is comparable to these two, but Gun Runner was yet to win at the Classic’s distance of 10 furlongs. If Baffert hadn’t started Collected in the Pacific Classic, Arrogate would have won by open lengths in fast time, and it’s safe to say his entry in the Breeders’ Cup would have been without question marks from the “experts.” And this brings me to where the real issue for Arrogate may lie: the Dubai World Cup (DWC). It’s fashionable these days to make fun of the Dubai “bounce,” and there’s a vocal community, especially on social media, who’ll torch you for saying it. But just because a number of horses haven’t subsequently bounced from Dubai doesn’t mean the bounce isn’t applicable to specific instances, particularly for Baffert-trained winners of the DWC. And, I should add, for the other DWC winners from California. Six California-based runners have
WINNING THE DWC TAKES A LOT OUT OF A HORSE, PARTICULARLY SINCE THE NORTH AMERICANS ARE GOING OFF LASIX IN THE RACE.
won the Dubai World Cup, and Baffert has trained three of them: Silver Charm (1998), Captain Steve (2001), and Arrogate (2017). Post DWC, Silver Charm was second in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill on June 13 and fifth in the then-Grade 3 San Diego at Del Mar on July 25 before winning his next start. Captain Steve, likewise, was second in the Stephen Foster, on June 16, and fourth in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on July 1. Captain Steve was then third in the Grade 2 San Diego on July 29 and finished his career with a fourth in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic on August 19. The other three DWC winners from California were Pleasantly Perfect (2004), Well Armed (2009), and California Chrome (2016). Pleasantly Perfect was trained by Richard Mandella and made his first start after Dubai in the San Diego on August 1. He was second. He then won his next start, the Pacific Classic on August 22. Well Armed, trained by Eoin Harty, was eighth in the San Diego on August 8 and never raced again. Only California Chrome, trained by Art Sherman, won immediately after Dubai, in the San Diego on July 23. He was also the only one of the six to acclimate in Dubai before the DWC, winning a handicap at Meydan a month before the main event. Winning the DWC takes a lot out of a horse, particularly since the North Americans are going off Lasix in the race. The ship to Dubai and back is twice as long for the Californians, too. Perhaps acclimating in Dubai is the answer. But whatever the reason, five of the six Californians haven’t won immediately after winning the DWC, and Arrogate fits that pattern. If he’s recovered like Silver Charm and Pleasantly Perfect did – and based on his performance in his last race, he has – Arrogate could of been on the cusp of greatness, again. “He’ll be ready,” were Bafferts’ words at Keeneland, sadly this was not Arrogate’s Breeders Cup.