ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE AND INFORMED UNDERSTANDING OF INDO-PACIFIC SECURITY
C ON T E N T S
9
INFORMATION, DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES, AND PANDEMICS
17 THE SATELLITE DOESN'T LIE
23 MISUNDERSTOOD
31 SEEING RED
39
FEATURED SECURITY SCHOLAR:
CLARISSE DACANAY
EDITORIAL BOARD AND STAFF PUBLISHER SWi Analytics, LLC EDITOR Mark Payumo MANAGING EDITORS Diana Alarde-Jordan Jacob Morrell Bryner Las Rio Pacit LAYOUT EDITOR Jayrald Vasquez WEB EDITOR Philip Carpentero CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Sherwin E. Ona, PhD Harrison Prétat Dionne Searcey Marites Dañguilan Vitug ANALYZING WAR MAGAZINE www.analyzingwar.org SUBSCRIBE Inside the magazine or issuu LETTERS TO THE EDITOR editor@analyzingwar.org
Photos on these pages via Wikimedia Commons in the public domain in the U.S.: 1, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 33, and 36. All others via Shutterstock.
4 July/August 2021
SHERWIN E. ONA, PHD
is an associate professor and chairperson of the political science and development studies department of De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines. His current engagements are in the areas of human security, cybersecurity, digital government, and disaster informatics. He is also a fellow of the Philippine Public Safety College-Department of the Interior and Local Government, the La Salle Institute of Governance and the Stratbase-Albert Del Rosario Institute. Dr. Ona is an officer of the Philippine Coast Guard Auxiliary with the rank of Commander and has previously served with the Philippine Air Force as a reservist officer.
HARRISON PRÉTAT
is a research associate with the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). His research interests include maritime disputes, U.S.-China relations, economic engagement in Asia, and challenges to international institutions in the 21st century.
DIONNE SEARCEY
is the former West Africa bureau chief for The New York Times and winner of the 2020 team Pulitzer Prize for international reporting.
MARITES DAÑGUILAN VITUG
has been a journalist for almost four decades and is one of the Philippines’ most accomplished journalists. A bestselling author, Marites has written eight books on Philippine current affairs. She is the former editor of Newsbreak, a pioneering political magazine. Currently, she is editor-at-large of Rappler. Her latest book, Rock Solid: How the Philippines Won Its Maritime Dispute Against China, won the National Book Award for best book in journalism in 2019.
5 July/August 2021
EDITOR’S NOTE To say that truth is fungible could well be
eggs are good for your health, while some
considered sacrilege, a desecration of sacred
were filmed smoking in their white lab coat to
ground and seen as a tacit admission of
validate gender activists’ claims that cigarettes
one’s character flaw. Yet, the long arc of
are “torches of freedom.” But these are
human history shows how entire populations
only peacetime pursuits, a mere extension
relinquished their right toward self-
of its application to wartime mobilization
determination and endowed monarchs with
that convinced an isolationist America to
the “divine right of kings.” At the same time,
fight during World War I. The fungibility
it is curious how men will kill and die and
of truth also deposed an unsuspecting but
challenge an established order based on an
legitimate leader of Guatemala in 1954, and
ideology—no matter how abstract—while
led Washington to believe that the same
rallying behind its proponent.
methodology would succeed in the Vietnam War.
That truth is eroding in the 21st century no longer comes as a surprise as “fake news”
Meanwhile, Vladimir Lenin’s weaponization
or “misinformation” now appear to be the
of his ideology took place simultaneously
norm as shorthand terminologies in both
with Edward Bernay’s work as the Father
mainstream and professional settings. Hiding
of Propaganda, and endures to this day in
in plain sight, however, is the process by
present-day Russia, North Korea, and China.
which this unfolds. Initially advanced as a
But due to man’s natural proclivity to uncover
discipline in the field of marketing, reshaping
the truth, it was only a matter of time before
truth had its roots in propaganda, which
propaganda evolved into public relations—
quickly evolved into a distasteful terminology
this time with stronger emphasis on the
owing to its unethical but purposeful manner
integrity of the truth albeit with imperfections
of promoting information with questionable
more or less intact.
accuracy as a means of advancing a cause. This evolution is arguably a cycle that follows It is now common knowledge that thousands
a pattern of crests and troughs—the high
of doctors once endorsed that bacon and
points being akin to the moral high ground
6 July/August 2021
The publishers of Analyzing War honor the service and sacrifice of Philippine Air Force Major Michael Benolerao who was among the fatalities in the C130 plane crash in Jolo, Sulu on July 4, 2021. Major Benolerao also belonged to the Philippine Military Academy Class of 2006.
7 July/August 2021
while the low points are the opposite—a
in managing the flow of information will be
struggle between truth and lies and between
to balance personal opinions and facts as
good and evil. This is nowhere more evident
they add up and form a complete picture.
in the eventual decline of tabloids as
The recent C130 plane crash in the Southern
mainstream newspapers prevailed over them,
Philippines, for instance, placed Philippine
and in democracy’s triumph over communism.
military and government officials with zero flying background in a complicated position,
To be sure, the digital era can be equally
when they reflected to reporters on record
problematic as the world becomes saturated
regarding the circumstances surrounding the
with large volumes of data. Algorithms
accident even before an investigation has
haven’t kept pace with ethics that ought to
concluded.
come with it and, in this sense, are rendered obsolete owing to the urgency of maintaining
In the end, upholding the truth may belong to
societal stability and cohesion. The January 6
a pattern of struggle between accuracy and
insurrection in the U.S. Capitol; the genocide
falsehood, but it doesn’t happen by default.
of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar; and how
It remains at least a generation away before
Cambridge Analytica’s machine learning
algorithms can fix a bug by themselves, while
models assisted Brexit campaigners and a
pieces of legislation should not be allowed to
Filipino presidential candidate as a matter of
remain set in stone indefinitely. We present
experimentation are among valid points of
this issue with these in mind and attempt
concern.
to put a balance of perspectives between academics and career journalists, taking
It is in this light that traditional offline tools
context from the African continent to the
such as legislation and basic human decency
Asia-Pacific, and enjoining our readers in
and honesty may well remain relevant.
search of a meaningful strategy to address the
Section 230 of the Communications Decency
challenges of misinformation in the digital era
Act, for instance, is under legislative pressure
and beyond.
from at least two proposed bills in the U.S. Congress, which aim to hold Big Tech
Mark Payumo
accountable for misinformation that occurs on
Mountain View, CA
their platforms. Another measured approach
8 July/August 2021
Information, Digital Technologies, and Pandemics CREATING AN INFORMATION STRATEGY FOR PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES Sherwin E. Ona, PhD “In an interconnected world, safeguarding the global f lows of goods and services, information, infrastructural hubs and systems – is of the utmost importance. In a world of transnational connections, protecting the national territory against hostile armies is not enough.”- Ballin, Goede and Dijstelbloem (2020) on the “Extension of the Concept of Security”
T
he COVID-19 pandemic has placed tremendous pressure on public health care systems around the world. Partly because of the fragmented nature of these systems, the outbreak has revealed gaps in the capacity of states to mitigate its effects. Furthermore, the virulence and lethality of the virus have brought fear and anxiety, thus opening the doors for the malicious spread of rumors and false information that can undermine disease mitigation 9 July/August 2021
efforts. This article discusses the information aspect of a pandemic response and maintains that the current information environment does not exist in a vacuum. Instead, it is composed of various players with varied interests, needs, and sophisticated capabilities. As such, it is important for policymakers and planners to be aware of this and understand the need for an information strategy that combines national security, public health, and technology perspectives.
An important feature of this emerging view is the need to understand the complex nature of non-traditional threats (NTTs) such as a pandemic. Because of global interdependence, the ubiquitous access to digital technologies and information together with the mobility of peoples, NTTs are more pervasive and multifaceted. It also has the capacity to exacerbate existing socio-economic problems associated with poverty, hunger, and the marginalization of sectors. At the same time, these threats transcend national borders, making the traditional nation-state concept of using its military forces to mitigate threats inadequate.1 Digital technologies have also created more porous borders. Therefore, protecting the information environment during health crises is a vital element of any disease mitigation effort. In addition, digital technologies are often viewed as double-edged swords. On
the one hand, its power to streamline supply chains, create virtual markets and empower citizens has been crucial in a world plagued by COVID-19. Data analytics and geospatial technologies have been beneficial in supporting emergency governance. However, its weaponization through disinformation, cybercrimes, and distributed denial of online services can destabilize states. Emerging hybrid and grey area warfare practices show that our dependence on information and digital technologies can be exploited, especially during public health emergencies. Widespread cyberattacks combined with a deliberate disinformation campaign can easily undermine disease mitigation activities, exacerbate existing social cleavages as well as weaken democratic institutions.2 Similarly, these activities can also be part of a broader military campaign.
10 July/August 2021
In general, information and digital
will use the outbreak to declare martial
for the public good or resources for
suggested that the U.S. is using Africans
technologies may be seen as tools
this new type of warfare. Examples of the latter show that adversaries
law. Likewise, Iranian television further
as “guinea pigs” for its new bioweapon.3
capitalize on the ambiguity of grey zone
Meanwhile, recognizing digital and
political outcomes without resorting to
of the overall national response can
strategies with the desire to achieve
armed conflict. For non-state actors,
this strategy is useful for asymmetrical
fighting and cybercrimes. On the other
hand, best practices from countries such as Vietnam and Thailand have shown
that these resources are enabling tools
to achieve public health and governance objectives.
THE EBOLA AND COVID-19 OUTBREAKS
The weaponization of information
and digital technologies can be an inexpensive alternative that can
undermine legitimate activities and diminish the credibility of actors. Such was the case with the 2013
Ebola outbreak in Africa, where Allied humanitarian operations in the region were subjected to misinformation attacks aimed at undermining its
mission. Online reports have accused
the US of militarizing the Ebola outbreak and that the Obama administration 11 July/August 2021
information assets as an essential facet be rewarding. For instance, Vietnam’s
COVID-19 mitigation strategy labeled its
national response as the “Spring General Offensive of 2020.” This prompted
its government to use its information infrastructure to promote awareness
and trust and quell misinformation, thus, controlling the spread of the virus.4
Similarly, Thailand adopted a strategy driven by science and data combined with a communication strategy that
sought the participation of its citizens.5
COVID-19 border checkpoint in Muntinlupa City.
COVID-19 IN THE PHILIPPINES In the Philippines, its highly securitized,
The March 2021 viral surge in the
the world’s longest pandemic-related
provinces revealed the government's
top-down strategy has led to one of
lockdowns. Plagued by poor leadership
and resource limitations, gaps in the use of information resources can be seen through the following problems: (a)
unreliable health data from hospitals and communities; (b) inability to coordinate contact tracing data from the local
governments to national agencies; and (c) failure to aggregate data from multiple
sources.6 This is further compounded by
the spread of fake news about its current vaccination program and the alarming increase in cybercrime cases.7 8
National Capital Region and adjacent inability to monitor and control
the disease. Due to the country's
fragmented public health systems,
its national contact tracing software remains on the “work in progress”
stage, while its capacity to develop an integrated system to match hospital
resources and medical inventories to
demand is highly doubtful. This is further complicated by the government's
unidirectional public messaging, which tends to treat its citizens like wards rather than partners.
12 July/August 2021
THE NEED FOR AN INFORMATION
adversaries can use cyberspace to
EMERGENCIES
zone warfare. Developing an information
STRATEGY FOR PUBLIC HEALTH
Public health crises highlight the need for decision-makers and security planners to understand the benefits of using
digital technologies and information. It is also critical to realize that pervasive
access to these technologies can pose a significant threat. Today’s tech savvy
engage in both asymmetrical and grey
strategy that combines public health and national security while treating digital
technologies as tools to address future
threats is vital for the Philippines. Figure 1 illustrates the intersection between
the two facets, while digital technologies are depicted as enabling tools for both facets.
Figure 1: Components of an information strategy for public health emergencies
President Rodrigo Roa Duterte holds a meeting with members of the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID).
13 July/August 2021
The public health component of the
and social media venues can be
following:
and quell misinformation. This calls
proposed strategy consists of the
i. Establish an integrated public
health command system. This system should have the ability to monitor and control the spread of any disease. This is envisioned to be a national system that has the capability to aggregate health datasets from
community health stations and local governments. Health facilities and
medical inventories are expected to
be part of the system. The results of integration can be used to support policy development.
ii. Promote public awareness. A
program that uses traditional online
pursued to promote public awareness for the creation of digital content
that can address specific needs and concerns. A good example of this
is the publication of video content on common home remedies and
symptoms of COVID-19. This also
underscores the importance of having reliable and accurate information to counter the spread of fake news. iii. Promote transparency and
openness as well as encourage
participation. Public confidence and trust are important commodities in
a public health emergency. For this,
special emphasis must be placed on transparency to eradicate doubts
COVID-19 Community Quarantine Checkpoint in Cagayan.
14 July/August 2021
Ninoy Aquino Stadium COVID-19 quarantine inspection.
and allegations of corruption.
useful in creating a digital portfolio for
health data in an open data format
the development of data interoperability
For instance, the publication of
encourages both the private sector as well as civil society organizations to
participate in good governance and innovation efforts. Another issue in
public health emergencies. It also entails and governance standards that
can ensure seamless integration of government agencies.
this category is the need to achieve a
At the same time, its national security
individuals and the public good.
address the following challenges:
balance between the privacy rights of
In addition, viewing digital technologies as enablers requires the development
of a secure information infrastructure.
For example, emerging digital mapping, data analytics, semantic technologies,
and artificial intelligence applications are 15 July/August 2021
component highlights the need to
i. Address the adverse effects of
misinformation and disinformation. It is possible to counter misinformation by making a deliberate effort to respond to citizens' information
needs. Strategies such as emergency
communication, fact checking, and
the professionalization of this area
the spread of malicious rumors.
positions and technical specialties
consistent messaging can prevent Disinformation is more difficult to
address because of its sophisticated
nature. One must be steps ahead by
identifying the intentions, goals, and capabilities of potential adversaries. ii. Anticipate the impact of
asymmetrical and grey zone
warfare. Sophisticated adversaries can disrupt a nation's information
infrastructure and undermine disease mitigation efforts. For this, planners should develop the necessary competencies and doctrines.
Security, law enforcement, and
public safety organizations should develop their own practices to
address future threats. For instance,
through the development of career should be explored. Conducting
a cybersecurity audit to enhance
strengths and address weaknesses is another technique that can be used for this purpose.
Finally, we should all realize that nontraditional threats are here to stay.
For its part, the Philippines must learn
from its shortcomings and embrace this reality by developing an information
strategy to rapidly adapt to this new
normal. We cannot afford to wait for a
new pandemic or the next “big one” to act decisively.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
NOTES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Ernest Ballin, Huub Dijstelbloem, and Peter De Goede, “Extension of the Concept of Security,” in Security in an Interconnected World (Springer Open Access, 2020), 13-29. Andrew Drowse and Sascha-Dominik Bachmann, “The Explainer: what is ‘hybrid warfare’ and what is mean by the ‘grey zone’?” The Conversation, June 17, 2019. Melia Pfannestiel and Louis L. Cook, “Disinformation and Disease: Operating in the Information Environment During Foreign Humanitarian Assistance Missions,” Joint Force Quarterly 98, 3rd Quarter (July 2020): 20-27. Minh Vu and Bich T. Tran, “The Secret to Vietnam’s COVID-19 Response Success: A review of Vietnam’s response to COVID-19 and its implications,” The Diplomat, April 18, 2020. Busaba Sivasomboon, “Thailand Eases More Coronavirus Restrictions, Ends Curfew,” The San Diego Union Tribune, June 12, 2020. Sherwin Ona, “COVID-19 and Security Governance: An Initial Examination of the Philippine Experience and Its Implication to Policy Development” (Special Study, Rex Publication-Stratbase ADRI, 2020). Benjamin Pulta, “Online Child Exploitation Reports in PH Surge Amid COVID-19: DOJ,” Philippine News Agency, May 25, 2020. Karen Lema, “Rumours and fear dog Philippine plan for coronavirus vaccine drive,” Reuters, last updated January 27, 2021.
16 July/August 2021
THE SATELLITE DOESN'T LIE TRUTH DECAY AND REMOTE-SENSING DATA Harrison Prétat
T
echnology is continually changing how people receive information and perceive events outside of their own personal experience. Today there is more information available to the general public about any given subject than ever before in history, and yet populations continually find themselves disagreeing on the basic facts about current events. As barriers to broadcasting and publishing have fallen, publics have become dispersed into separate, narrow audiences, hooked into partial streams of information and vulnerable to being misled. The consequences of this phenomenon have been felt keenly in the fight against COVID-19, where governments across the globe have struggled to dispel misinformation and deliver consistent guidance to their citizens.
17 July/August 2021
Truth decay is just as much an issue in the realm of foreign and defense
policy, where powerful international
factual claims can sow confusion during crises and lead to miscalculation.
actors conceal facts or promulgate
REMOTE-SENSING DATA
national security objectives. This poses
While the incentives to misrepresent events
the maritime and territorial disputes in
always remain, there are ways to reduce
self-serving narratives in the pursuit of particular challenges in the context of
the Indo-Pacific. Dispute management and resolution often relies upon
establishing a degree of agreement
upon fundamental facts—when two sides have two entirely different versions of events, it can become impossible for
them to agree on the next appropriate
step to take. Even more dangerously, the existence of contradictory narratives and
occurring in the maritime domain will
the amount of “spin” that can be put on a story, even when it happens in distant waters hundreds of miles from shore.
Commercially available remote-sensing data can serve as a powerful toolset to
obtain a clearer picture of what is actually happening in disputed waters and to put
concrete limits on the possible narratives that interested actors can put forward.
International Space Station.
18 July/August 2021
View of South China Sea.
While top government officials may
opening the door for non-governmental
intelligence, the organizations that
see what is happening in contested
have access to high-quality military
gather this information are inevitably
interested in keeping secret just what
they know, and how they got to know it. This leaves critical actors that influence public policy, including academia,
business organizations, and the general public, vulnerable to misinformation or
even targeted disinformation about what is really happening in disputed areas.
Commercially available remote-sensing
data such as satellite imagery, automatic identification system (AIS) data, radio
frequency data, and synthetic aperture radar can address this vulnerability. By 19 July/August 2021
organizations and journalists to both
maritime areas and share these findings with a broad audience, commercial
remote-sensing offerings can better educate civil society and political
constituencies about the fundamental
facts, making them resistant to politically or geopolitically-motivated falsehoods. And while traditional data sources like
statistical surveys and experimental data can sometimes fail to penetrate false narratives, remote-sensing data has
some unique characteristics that make it both more compelling and less easy
to manipulate when compared to other common data types.
A US Soldier analyzing atmospheric and space data information.
THE BENEFITS
peddling contradictory satellite
One of remote-sensing data’s
thing. Redundant providers of the
fundamental strengths is right in the
name: it’s sensing data. It isn’t collected
by an interviewer asking questions, or by a researcher conducting an experiment,
both of whom could be accused of bias: it’s collected by a machine receiving
light or radio waves, a much more direct and objective method of gathering information.
Aside from making the data more
compelling to even resistant audiences, the objective nature of sensing data
means that viewers aren’t faced with a choice between different sources
images—they are all sensing the same same type of data and high frequency of collection largely dispel concerns
about data integrity post-collection—if one provider tried to doctor its data
(or its database was hacked into and
altered), users would immediately spot a disconnect when comparing it to other platforms.
These properties make remote-sensing data a uniquely powerful tool not only
for monitoring activities in the maritime domain, but also for grounding the
public discourse in fact. But like any tool, remote-sensing data has its limitations.
20 July/August 2021
THE LIMITATIONS
incidents that occur between competing
First, while the quality of data and
East China Sea.
frequency of collections are increasing,
claimants in the South China Sea and
at present there are still significant
Second, not all remote-sensing data is as
satellite imagery is collected over
data types require technical knowledge
gaps in coverage. While low-resolution most locations nearly every day, high-
resolution collections are infrequent even over known locations of interest, and
rarely happen over the swaths of open ocean that are often the site of illegal,
unreported, and unregulated fishing and transshipment activity, as well as many
self-explanatory as a photograph. Most
and as well as experience in monitoring activity in a given area to accurately interpret. Audiences also require
knowledge of the surrounding subject matter, whether that be international
maritime law, the history of the South
China Sea disputes, or the composition of a country’s fishing fleets, in order
to contextualize and understand the
significance of a remote-sensing data point.
Third, while accessibility to some data
types has increased substantially, others, including high-resolution satellite
imagery, remain too expensive at
present for independent researchers or journalists without institutional
support. This means that the community of users that can verify each other’s
work is smaller than it could be, and
that ultimately most audiences will still need to be convinced of the data’s
accuracy by the publisher since they Thunderstorms over the South China Sea.
21 July/August 2021
lack the capability to evaluate the data themselves.
USING IT TO THE FULLEST
the audience a chance to appreciate
While issues related to data coverage
sensing data when compared with
and accessibility will eventually be
resolved as new technologies reduce
costs and increase the frequency and
quality of data, the essential challenges of using data types unfamiliar to
most audiences will not be resolved so naturally. Instead, it depends on researchers and organizations that
publish remote-sensing data to pay
the relative objectivity of remoteother data, and can instill greater
confidence in its integrity. And though most remote-sensing research still requires some amount of expert
analysis to interpret or contextualize
the data, providing enough information to allow the audience to evaluate the data themselves is just as important.
special attention to its presentation.
Used in this way, remote-sensing
When researchers or journalists publish
educate broader audiences about
work that makes use of remote-
sensing data, they endeavor to include identifying information about the
data provider, as well as thorough
explanations of how the data is collected. Transparency about the source and
technical information about the data give
data can be a powerful tool to
developments in contested maritime spaces and reduce the range of
narratives that can be entertained,
making it easier for different groups to agree on facts and, potentially, to achieve progress in dispute management.
22 July/August 2021
MISUNDERSTOOD NIGERIA’S FEMALE SUICIDE BOMBERS AND FLAWED INFORMATION RESPONSE Dionne Searcey, former West Africa bureau chief for The New York Times
I
was driving around Maiduguri, a busy college town
in Northeastern Nigeria, when I passed a roundabout and a giant billboard caught my eye. It was a
painting of a girl with explosives strapped to her body. The girl had wild eyes and a vicious expression on her face, as though she was grimacing. The intent was clear: she looked like a deranged killer.
“Stop terrorism,” was printed across the billboard. The text beneath the image urged parents not to hand over their daughters to be suicide bombers. 23 July/August 2021
This was 2017, and, at the time,
state where a harsh interpretation
Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram.
military were targeted as the enemy and
Maiduguri was under siege by the
The group was not well known in the
Western world yet it had been named more deadly than ISIS just two years
earlier by The Institute of Economics &
Peace, around the same time the globe
was focused on the Islamic State and its
horrific attacks in Paris that killed dozens of people.
People in Maiduguri didn’t need a think tank designation to know how deadly
Boko Haram was. They lived the terror every day.
The group was founded in their city, intent on returning the region to a
of Islam ruled. The government and
considered emblems of Western, sinful leanings. Anyone who had anything
to do with the government—police,
soldiers, bureaucrats, even teachers and students—were considered by terrorists to be fair targets. In 2014, nearly 300 schoolgirls were kidnapped by Boko
Haram in an incident that gained global
attention when celebrities and politicians circulated the social media slogan
#BringBackOurGirls. Many of them are
still missing and the kidnapping moved off the international radar.
The government was struggling to get
control of the war, but Nigeria was not
24 July/August 2021
Nigerian Army conducted military drills in the Sambisa Forest which previously had been a stronghold for Boko Haram.
winning. The president was holding on
But in 2017, the war took a terrible turn
by repeatedly declaring victory on his
of them shockingly carried out by young
to the semblance of victory, however, social media accounts. He apparently
was banking on the fact that for much
of the rest of the country, and, notably,
as a rash of bombings broke out, most women and girls. The war was back in the global spotlight.
for the nation’s power brokers in big
The bombings were horrendous.
of mind as they went about their daily
mosques and even the gates of the main
cities, the war was out of sight and out lives.
By the time I arrived in Maiduguri, Boko Haram had long ravaged the city, going
on violent sprees of killing all the young men who didn’t join their ranks, and
kidnapping women and girls. Buildings
Explosives tore through markets,
university in the city where a professor
of veterinary sciences was killed. He was
just one of dozens of people going about their day who lost their lives during this awful spate of violence that spared no one in the bombs’ vicinity.
were in tatters. Relatives still combed
But the fact that most of these bombings
ones who had disappeared.
girls was startling.
the morgues to find traces of loved
25 July/August 2021
were being carried out by women and
It was an inexplicable phenomenon in
the numerous military and police
were nearly invisible in all strata of
contorted into a form of a curtsy as a
a part of the country where women
societies. Not just in Nigeria but in the
region in general, men overwhelmingly were decision-makers in homes, in
companies, in corporate boardrooms,
and in government. The idea that women
checkpoints set up all over the city, they way to let soldiers know they weren’t carrying bulky explosives that would have prevented them from bending down.
and even teenage girls were making
Humanitarian workers were scared
as heinous as blowing themselves up,
food collection points. The woman of
headlines at all, let alone for something was nothing short of shocking.
The bombings set off a certain paranoia about women and girls, and even panic in some parts of the city. Pedestrians started crossing the street to avoid
being near any young woman wearing a
long, flowing hijab—perfect for hiding a suicide belt. When women approached
and began rethinking how to set up
a household was typically in charge of
gathering the free food so badly needed by the farmers and fishermen who had
fled their livelihoods to move into camps
where they felt safe. Women had started bathing more often and taking special care to comb their hair and wear nice clothes to avoid looking suspicious.
Suicide bomber girls were filthy and wore
Paracel Islands
26 July/August 2021
Refugees in Nigeria.
tattered dresses because of their harsh
conditions in Boko Haram camps deep in
the forest. “Haggard” was how everyone
her hijab. Kids as young as 8 years old were blowing themselves up.
described them.
Military intelligence hadn’t uncovered
All the suspicion had tragic
choosing to push the detonator, despite
consequences. One aid group
documented innocent children who had
been killed at checkpoints in the region, mistaken by nervous soldiers who were afraid that the kids were concealing bombs.
The Nigerian military was in the process of spending millions to buy high-tech
information about why the women were the thousands of people streaming across the border and into refugee
camps, each with their own tale of horror and many of whom knew exactly what was happening in their communities to the young women, because they
themselves had been kidnapped by Boko Haram and escaped.
war planes from the United States. Yet
And so the government went on a public
rudimentary pipe bomb fastened under
of disinformation based on a failure of
it couldn’t stop a Nigerian tween with a
27 July/August 2021
service campaign that itself was a form
intelligence and of basic warfare. TV and
that? But apparently to the government,
of young girls who had been arrested
admission of defeat.
radio spots were filmed with the voices
before they could detonate their bombs,
to explain otherwise would have been an
portraying them as vicious killers. The
My common sense radar told me
from getting the same idea and running
find the truth.
idea was to keep other young women off to become bombers themselves. The public service campaign helped
explain the billboard I spotted that day driving around Maiduguri. But the text imploring parents not to give away
daughters to become suicide bombers stuck with me. What parent would do
something was just…off. So I set out to
With the help of my colleague, the local journalist Shehu Abubakar, and our
security sources, we tracked down 18
women and girls who had been recruited as suicide bombers but failed to carry
out their missions to find out what would convince a woman to push a detonator.
Nigerien National Guard Soldier in Zenam Kelouri.
28 July/August 2021
Refugees in Nigeria.
What we found was a set of terrified,
I sat in a safe house and talked to the
been kidnapped by terrorists. Some of
drenching everyone in the room with
traumatized young women who had
them had seen their mothers and fathers brutally murdered before their eyes.
Some had been beaten. Others had been raped. Each had a particularly terrifying story of explosives being forcibly tied to them, or of being marched to their bombing targets at gunpoint. Some
women for hours, the stifling heat
sweat. Tears flowed from the girls, and some of them stopped to catch their
breath as they talked. It was the only
time anyone had asked them what had
happened, and importantly, the only time anyone listened to what they had to say.
were told they were doing God’s will
Each woman was clever enough to find
told relatives would be killed if they
night, feigning illness, surrendering
by pushing a detonator. Some were
didn’t carry out their mission. Many of
the women were told that if they didn’t
detonate a bomb they would be forced
to “marry” a Boko Haram fighter, and do his bidding at a terrorists’ camp. 29 July/August 2021
a way to escape—running off in the
to sympathetic soldiers and mosque
attendees, or lying to fighters that they had set off their bomb and somehow
didn’t die. Their ruses worked and they had made it to safety.
Far from being a threat or a gift to
Boko Haram from willing parents as
the Nigerian government would have had citizens believe, these women
were national heroes and should have been lauded as such for having saved
countless lives for their defiance. And the Nigerian military and government forces would have known that if they, too, would have listened.
30 July/August 2021
IN COUNTERINSURGENCY, PHILIPPINE MILITARY SHIFTS FROM HEARTS-AND-MINDS CAMPAIGN TO DISINFORMATION Marites Dañguilan Vitug
I
n April, more than a year after
COVID-19 hit the Philippines and as new cases surged, sending
residents in Metro Manila and
nearby urban centers hunkering down in yet another round of lockdown, an idea was born.
Ana Patricia Non, a 26-year old entrepreneur, set up a bamboo
cart on a busy street in suburban
Quezon City, filled it with canned goods, vegetables, bags of rice, and tacked a makeshift sign:
“Community Pantry. Magbigay ayon sa kakayahan, kumuha batay sa
pangangailangan. Give what you can. Take what you need.” 31 July/August 2021
Soon after, long queues formed on the
as the handiwork of local communists.
lost their jobs during the pandemic
hardline army officer and spokesperson
street, among them workers who have and residents of nearby urban poor
communities. Donors started pitching in, bringing sacks of rice, boxes of assorted goods, and bags of vegetables.
This simple act of generosity, like a waterfall in a desert, captured the
public’s imagination. Images of Non
Lieutenant General Antonio Parlade, a
of a government body tasked to end the communist insurgency in the Philippines (officially called the National Task Force
to End Local Communist Armed Conflict or NFT-ELCAC), likened the millennial
Non to Satan: “Satan gave Eve an apple. That’s where it all started.”1
and volunteers filling up the pantry and
National security adviser Hermogenes
social and mainstream media. The idea
was explicit. They were probing Non’s
attending to those in need exploded on spread like wildfire with hundreds of
community pantries sprouting in various parts of the country.
But for one group, this phenomenon was a national security threat. The
military pounced on it, discrediting it
Esperon, who runs the NFT-ELCAC,
community pantry for any links to an “organization that would be traced
to the legal fronts… of the CPP-NPA
(Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army).” 2 Other community
pantries were also profiled and surveilled by the police.
32 July/August 2021
RED SCARE
What the country is seeing is the effect
Demonizing the community pantries
violent fist. Duterte has given the military
was the most dramatic example of
red-tagging, a move that surprised
and angered many. It is reminiscent of McCarthyism in the US in the 1950s
when witch-hunts were launched against suspected communist subversives.
This comes as state security forces in the Philippines continue to fight the CPP-
NPA, now on its 52nd year, the longest running insurgency in Asia. The CPP
today is a pale shadow of what it used to
be in the 1970s, with only a few thousand members. 33 July/August 2021
of a commander-in-chief who rules with a and police their marching orders: “Finish off” and “kill” communist rebels.3 This
puts premium on the military approach coupled with propaganda offensives laden with disinformation.
Red-tagging is now the default mode
of the military in its counterinsurgency campaign, labeling people and
organizations. This is dangerous because, as it has turned out, a number of activists publicly denounced as communists were
killed by the police, claiming the suspects were resisting arrests.4
Cesar Garcia Jr., national security adviser
showed.6 There have also been no official
that red-tagging makes potential allies
of the NPA.
to President Benigno Aquino III, told me hostile. “What is important,” he said, “is
reports or proof that they were members
to have strategic communication that is
This red scare spilled into the judiciary
isolate insurgents. In other words, don’t
Ignacio, ordered the release of two
principally aimed at building alliances to make more enemies.”5
The military has ditched the classic
hearts-and-minds principle. On social
media, soldiers actively spread unverified information. Among those they have red-tagged are journalists, activists,
human rights defenders, organizations
when a judge, Monique Quisumbingdetained activists in March, clearing
them of charges by the police that they illegally possessed firearms. A tarpaulin with the logo of the CPP thanking the judge for setting their comrades free
was hung on a major highway in Metro Manila.7
of government employees, a judge,
In Cagayan de Oro in Mindanao, army
and universities which they insist are
media accounts to label activists and
party-list members of Congress,
recruiting grounds for the CPP-NPA. The case of former activists starkly illustrates the recklessness of the
military. A Facebook account of the
officers use false names on their social journalists, “creating an anti-communist hysteria grounded on half-truths and
falsehoods,” Herbie Gomez, editor of Mindanao Gold Star Daily, wrote.8
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)
posted a list of former University of the
Philippines students who joined the NPA and “are now dead or captured by the
AFP.” At least eight people on the list of 27 are public figures who are still alive— journalists, former government officials, an academic, playwright, and lawyers—
and have not been captured as members
of the NPA, a fact-check done by Rappler 34 July/August 2021
behind this activity coordinated with one another and used fake accounts
as a central part of their operations to mislead people about who they are
and what they are doing... When we
investigate and remove these operations, we focus on behavior rather than
content, no matter who’s behind them, what they post, or whether they’re foreign or domestic.”9 TAKEDOWN BY FACEBOOK
The military-linked accounts were traced
Social media is a new and fertile
Alexandre Cabales, chief of the Army
battleground for the military to pursue its information warfare against the
communist insurgents. "If before we
restricted our soldiers from engaging much in social media, now it is
encouraged. The AFP has to win this
propaganda fight being waged by the
CPP and they are miles ahead," Parlade was quoted by Rappler.
However, a backlash against the military’s aggressive use of social media jolted the institution. In September 2020,
Facebook took down 57 accounts and
31 pages linked to the Philippine military and police for violating its policy against “coordinated inauthentic behavior” against activists and legal groups.
Facebook announced: “…the people 35 July/August 2021
to the social media operations of Captain Social Media Center. Two soldiers from
the Philippine Army were also identified to be among the operators of the fake
pages. They are members of the Army's
Civil-Military Operations Regiment, which recruits communities and civilian groups
in its counterinsurgency campaign as well as to help in major disasters.10
But things didn’t start this way. The AFP first tapped social media in 2014, convening experts and about a thousand uniformed men and women to talk about its role in counterinsurgency. Lieutenant General Emmanuel Bautista, then the AFP Chief of Staff, recalled in an e-mail interview: “We had to retool the AFP’s communications capability…The purpose was to fight the information battle. After all, counterinsurgency is a battle for hearts and minds…Most often, the solution for us was to simply give the correct information…Red-tagging was a taboo as a matter of policy.” Today, the military’s information warfare has vastly drifted away from alliancebuilding into disinformation.11 COLLAPSED PEACE TALKS How did the political atmosphere become so toxic?
The story has its roots in Duterte and the CPP’s love story gone bitter. It shows how personal relations intertwined with local politics worked in temporarily abating conflict in a city—but this brittle formula fell apart in the national stage. As Davao City mayor for 22 years, Duterte was regarded as a friend by the CPP and its military arm, the NPA operating in Davao. He entered into an agreement with them. “The CPP-NPA will not launch any military operation—ambush, raids, kidnappings, bank robberies—within his jurisdiction,” Earl Parreño, author of a biography of Duterte, said in an e-mail interview. “In exchange, he will ‘protect’ them if their forces are in his territory…He allowed them to collect ‘revolutionary taxes,’ he took care of their sick, and he accommodated some of the leaders’ personal requests such as pocket money, scholarships for their children, employment for family members.”
36 July/August 2021
A few weeks before his victory as president in 2016, Duterte promised a ceasefire with the CPP-NPA. “Since 1970 I'd been listening to (Jose Ma.) Sison,” then-candidate Duterte said. “He was my teacher, so I told him, sir, please come home, let's talk. So he promised to me if I win the presidency, he will come home and I will bring him here, let's have a program.”12 Sison never returned to the Philippines but Duterte kept his promise of
initiating peace talks with the CPP.13 Duterte appointed four leftist activists— nominees of the CPP—to his cabinet who didn’t last long: two were rejected by Congress, one was fired by Duterte, and one resigned.14 It turned out to be a fragile coalition. Duterte terminated the talks in Nov. 2017, triggered by an ambush of policemen by the NPA.15 Since then, the fog of war has thickened, making a negotiated settlement elusive.
NOTES 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
“Parlade likens rapid spread of community pantries to work of ‘Satan’,” Rappler, April 22, 2021, https://www.rappler.com/nation/ntfelcac-parlade-says-ana-patricia-non-same-satan “Esperon: Gov’t looking into pantry organizers’ possible links to rebel groups,” Rappler, April 21, 2021, https://www.rappler.com/ nation/esperon-says-government-looking-community-pantry-organizers-links-rebel-groups “’Kill them’: Duterte wants to ‘finish off’ communist rebels,” Al Jazeera.com, March 6, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/ news/2021/3/6/kill-them-all-duterte-wants-communist-rebels-finished “Bloody Sunday: 9 dead, 6 arrested in Calabarzon crackdown on activists,” Rappler, March 7, 2021, https://www.rappler.com/nation/ dead-arrested-calabarzon-crackdown-progressives-march-7-2021 “Rappler Talk: Cesar Garcia Jr on counterinsurgency in PH,” YouTube, Feb. 1, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UysjtOsSKHU “FALSE: List of dead, captured former UP students who became NPA,” Rappler, Jan. 23, 2021, https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/ fact-check/list-dead-captured-former-up-students-npa “After freeing activists, Mandaluyong judge gets red-tagged in an EDSA tarp,” Rappler, March 16, 2021, https://www.rappler.com/ nation/after-freeing-activists-mandaluyong-judge-red-tagged-edsa-tarpaulin-march-2021 “[Pastilan]: ‘Badoyistic Parladeism’ and mutations in the AFP,” Rappler, May 6, 2021, https://www.rappler.com/voices/ thought-leaders/pastilan-badoyistic-parladeism-mutations-afp?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_ source=Facebook#Echobox=1620270126 “Removing Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior,” Facebook, September 22, 2020, https://about.fb.com/news/2020/09/removingcoordinated-inauthentic-behavior-china-philippines/ “Two more Army soldiers identified as operators of fake Facebook network,” Rappler, Sept. 24, 2020, https://www.rappler.com/ technology/more-army-soldiers-identified-as-operators-fake-facebook-network “On social media, PH military declares war vs rights defenders,” Rappler, October 16, 2020, https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/indepth/social-media-philippine-military-declares-war-versus-rights-defenders “Duterte, Joma on Skype: Ceasefire if Davao mayor becomes president,” Rappler, April 27, 2016, https://www.rappler.com/nation/ elections/duterte-joma-skype-ceasefire “Peace talks with communists set for August 20-27, Rappler, July 19, 2016, https://www.rappler.com/nation/government-peacenegotiations-communist-party-august “Duterte fires last leftist in government,” Inquirer.net, Oct. 3, 2018, https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1038554/duterte-fires-last-leftist-ingovernment “Duterte formally ends peace talks with communists,” Rappler, Nov. 23, 2017, https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-formally-endspeace-talks-communists
37 July/August 2021
FEATURED SECURITY SCHOLAR:
CLARISSE DACANAY A Mark Payumo
braham Lincoln, Albert Einstein, and several others are credited for saying or some variation of the quote, “The only way to predict the future is to create it.” Fear of losing control is man’s universal predisposition and this may well explain why such words resonate across generations. Whether in peacetime or in war, even the world’s militaries ensure that appropriate procedures and controls are in place because more often than not, these actions that anticipate the future had been written in blood.
For nations constantly engaged in armed conflicts short of a general war, green horns have a high turnover rate toward becoming combat veterans due to the high likelihood of exposure to “baptism of fire,” putting their training to the test in the field of battle. For those who find themselves serving in the infantry, marines, or special operations forces, the reality almost invariably means that it’s not a question of “if”; it’s a question of “when.” As if running on
auto-pilot, anticipatory contingencies are triggered even as new ones are developed depending on the situation on the ground.
Another side to this logic of taking control of the future is less of an abstract idea than a perceptible or tangible alternative, one that the world was admonished for and alluded to by Jose Rizal as the “nation’s hope.” Faced with certain death by execution at 35 in December 1896, Rizal looked to the “youth” as the ones who should carry on the fight against tyranny. Rightly so, this same imperative crystallized in Ronald Reagan’s mind 70 years later during his inauguration as governor of California: “Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people. And those in world history who have known freedom and then lost it have never known it again.” 38 July/August 2021
39 July/August 2021
Nevertheless, it is common knowledge that the 21st century’s preliminary decades are characterized by disruptions in the global information landscape, a challenge that this generation will have to deal with along with a multitude of other threats such as climate change. But having Clarisse around and her colleagues gives us a sense of assurance that the future is in good hands. Graduating from Ateneo de Manila University in 2017 with a double degree in legal management and diplomacy and international relations, her undergraduate time at the Philippines’ top private school was well-balanced by her active participation in competitive softball. Her interest in international
security affairs eventually led her to do research as an analyst for Bower Group Asia and Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute. She now works in the same role for a U.S. transnational software company that’s headquartered in Herndon, Virginia. We are thankful to Clarisse for appearing on this issue especially as a way to inspire young people like her to introduce innovative solutions to the challenges we face, and find meaningful work in international security. Through young folks like Clarisse, we can take control of and usher in a future that is more just, stable, and prosperous. Read on to learn more from her and the work that she does.
40 July/August 2021
AW: What drew your interest in international security and military affairs? How did your journey in this field begin? I have always been fascinated by international security and military affairs. I can probably connect that fascination to the fact that I have brothers who allowed me to play the same strategy video games growing up, and from the stories of my father who did service at one point. However, what really drew my appreciation for it began in the 41 July/August 2021
university when I took up an elective on Comparative Peace Processes. The elective was focused on postconflict analysis to create mechanisms and resolutions based on the level of priority issues in order for the same violence and dispute not to happen again. Connecting this elective to the rest of my university days studying international politics and foreign relations, the interest had a life of its own really. From there, it just clicked that this is the field I want to build a career
on. I began in the human rights part of the field working on gender violence and transitional justice. The interest grew more when I had a short stint working in the Philippine Navy
which exposed me to naval affairs. Then, when I worked at Stratbase Albert Del Rosario Institute, it was just that golden opportunity to be able to expand the Institute’s defense and security program, and simultaneously increase my learning curve about this field. AW: Why do you make time for sports and to live an active lifestyle? The active lifestyle became inherent being an athlete from high school up until college. It was a part of me that I could not just discard and forget. It built my selfdiscipline in terms of stress and time management which has served me well in a lot of endeavors. It allows me to have the energy and concentration for the work that I have to do within the day. And, it keeps me youthful—from not getting winded running up the stairs to lessening my proneness to sickness. A healthy body goes hand in hand with a healthy mind. The investment that I make for my body by eating healthy and keeping it in top shape has an equal impact on my mental well-being, which 42 July/August 2021
directly affects the way I engage and interact with people, work, learning, among others. There is some science and philosophy to it to back it up. AW: What is your favorite book and why? I don’t really have favorites in terms of books or written work. I take everything that I read for what it is and try to understand and apply it to current events. I would be more of a podcast person and my favorite is called “Philosophize This!” by Stephen West. I think understanding how individuals, societies, and states function is very crucial in knowing the how’s and why’s of the developments and issues in the field of international security. AW: What do you see yourself doing five years from now? I see myself building on my expertise and/or specialization in the business side of security and military affairs, whether in consulting or contracting. By then, I would have finished taking up my master’s related to the field, gearing more on strategic studies, and continuing to contribute to policy and do research work in the same field. 43 July/August 2021
AW: Would you share some tips on how you stay on top of things in the middle of this pandemic? This pandemic has exhausted and burned people out because of the forced shift to a work-from-home setup, the limited movement, and the lack of interaction. My best advice would be balancing life by identifying your priorities and the amount of effort and time to put into it. This does not just entail work but also personal, family, social, leisure and rest time. The amount could go as detailed as down to the hours and minutes, or as broad as days and weeks. Another tip that goes with the first one would be to create healthy, productive habits that serve you. For example, on a work day, my morning starts with working out, either reading articles/news/books or listening to podcasts/music, and having a good cup of coffee. Then, I dedicate the rest of the morning for outputs that require more attention and details or demand more urgency. Afternoons are for work outputs that have farther deadlines or are more supplementary by nature.
When evil men plot, Good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, Good men must build and bind. When evil men shout ugly words of hatred, Good men must commit themselves to the glories of love. Where evil men would seek to perpetuate an unjust status quo, Good men must seek to bring into being A real order of justice. Martin Luther King, Jr.