Article volcanos, of two different sizes in the RCP future scenarios. The effect of both Santa Maria and Krakatau sized eruptions are added at both 2032 and 2087 in each scenario. The results are shown in Figure 1b. At 2030 in both scenarios the probability of a hiatus occurring is increased by both a medium and a large volcano. Interestingly at the end of the century in the RCP4.5 scenario with a medium or large volcanic eruption a hiatus is extremely likely, while in a RCP8.5 scenario even a large volcano is unlikely to cause a hiatus. This paper has used the CMIP5 models to investigate historical causes of a hiatus period and illustrated the key effects of volcanic eruptions and the IPO. The occurrence of hiatuses are found to be highly depended on future emissions scenario, with hiatuses extremely unlikely to occur after 2030 in a high emissions scenario, with even a Krakatau sized volcano unlikely to cause a hiatus by the end of the century.
The orginal paper is: Maher, N., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2014), Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5978– 5986, doi: 10.1002/2014GL060527
References: Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009), Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810. England, M. H., et al. (2014), Intensified Pacific Ocean wind-driven circulation during the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222–227. Timmreck, C. (2012), Modeling the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.192.
Call for Associate Science Editors Do you enjoy talking to and corresponding with a wide range of atmospheric, oceanographic, land surface and earth system scientists? Do you have a keen interest in communicating science to a broader audience? Do you often read a science article and think to yourself “This could have been written / edited better”? Would you like to increase your understanding of the peer review process, from behind the looking glass? If you answered “Yes indeed!” to any or all of these questions then you have the opportunity to engage in these activities as an Associate Science Editor for the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (BAMOS). The position: proactively seek out and encourage interesting speakers and/or scientists in the AMOS sciences to submit their work to BAMOS and then coordinate the peer-review process. Being an Associate Science Editor will give you first-hand experience of organising the review process and will also allow you to take a more active role in supporting the AMOS community. The position is voluntary (as is also the case for similar editorial roles with other scientific journals) and ongoing for as long as you wish to remain in the role. There is currently no specification for the number of applicants and anyone working in the AMOS-related subjects is encouraged to apply (although we would like at least one oceanographer as BAMOS is currently lacking in oceanographical content). You will work closely with and report to Willow Hallgren (the current Science Editor). Please contact Willow at whallgren@tpg.com.au with a copy of your CV if you are interested in undertaking one of these brand-new positions that will contribute significantly to the development of BAMOS. We look forward to hearing from you! Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 44