BAMOS April 2015

AMOS

AustralianMeteorological & OceanographicSociety

AMOS 2015: what to expect The warming hiatus: what does it mean?

The value of science

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society Vol 28, No. 2, APRIL 2015 ISSN 1035-6576

Contents Editorial...........................................................................................................................................................................25 President’s Column.........................................................................................................................................................26 News...............................................................................................................................................................................26 News from the Centres...................................................................................................................................................31 Comment........................................................................................................................................................................33 Special Feature: AMOS 2015 guest speakers.................................................................................................................37 Articles............................................................................................................................................................................40 Workshop Report............................................................................................................................................................45 Snapshot.........................................................................................................................................................................46 Meet a Member..............................................................................................................................................................48 Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin...........................................................................................................................49 The Research Corner with Damien Irving.......................................................................................................................50

ISSN 1035-6576 Cover picture: Stormy skies over Byron Bay. September 2014.

Image credit: Australian artist Angus McDonald.

See: http://www.angusmcdonald.com.au/ for more about Angus and to explore his work, or follow him on Instagram: @angusmcz.

Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated.

Editorial

Going beyond the big and blue In the Disney film Finding Nemo, there’s a scene [SPOILER ALERT] where Nemo arrives in his new home—a fish tank—after being taken away from the Great Barrier Reef by a diver. He tells the other inhabitants, a.k.a. the “Tank Gang”, that he’s from the ocean.

Bubbles the yellow tang fish asks, “So, the big blue, huh?

What’s it like?”

“Big... and... blue?” Nemo answers.

And that’s how much of humanity percieve the ocean.

Much like Nemo at that point in the movie, not all of us can experience the oceans in a tangible way, so the complexities of how these support life and affect climate seem difficult concepts to grasp, and therefore care about. Less than 0.1 percent of humanity has experienced diving on a coral reef. So what’s to say about the oceans beyond “big and blue”? With decades of human influences threatening the oceans, how do we better engage people with what they can’t “see”? And, perhaps more worryingly, how do the scientifically illiterate often get the upper hand when it comes to drawing the public’s attention?

The most recent face of psuedo-science, “wellness blogger” Belle Gibson, faked a suite of cancers, cures and charity donations to gain worldwide media attention. She was endorsed by companies such as Apple. Her “personal experience” was the driving element that secured and inspired her loyal followers. Though she was eventually found to have fabricated these experiences, what is the lure of the personal anecdote over actual evidence?

To quote oceanographer Sylvia Earle: “A picture is worth a thousand words but an experience is worth a thousand pictures”.

The AMOS sciences have many more stories to share, some of which can’t neccessarily be told with such strong visuals. Opportunities to share the stories are sometimes provided when a devastating weather event occurs (which news headlines seem dominated by at the moment; an East Coast low batters NSW as I type). And sometimes we can create other opportunities for sharing through events such as our annual AMOS conference.

With this year’s conference almost upon us, AMOS is now putting the final arrangements in place. In this issue, we explore some of the speakers and topics relevant to the conference. With the main theme being “Communicating our science: from research to community”, we have quite an impressive line-up ahead! Coincidentally, we also go beyond the “big and blue”, with a few ocean stories in our News section.

BAMOS is also recruiting. We now have an oceanography representative, Chris Bull, who is helping me collate newsworthy and interesting items from the oceanographic sector. Chris has very kindly pointed Nicola Maher towards BAMOS for this issue, where she takes us through her recent paper on global warming hiatuses­—see page 43 for the story. We are also on the lookout for some associate science editors, to help us attract more science articles to the BAMOS peer review process—please see the ad on page 44 for more information.

I hope you enjoy reading through BAMOS over the Autumn.

Melissa Lyne Editor

In the case of the “big and blue”, the Catlin Seaview Survey is a fine way to get more of humanity diving under the surface, so to speak; the project takes anyone with internet access exploring along the world’s coral reefs. Not quite literally, but the next best thing: virtually. You can see more of the project here: http://catlinseaviewsurvey.com/ Over the Easter break, I visited the Q Lab at Questacon with my son. Of the many interactive science demos on display, there was one in particular that caught my eye, featuring some eggs soaked in vinegar. The infomatic read: “Eggshells contain calcium carbonate, which reacts with the acetic acid in vinegar to produce water soluble calcium acetate, water, and bubbles of carbon dioxide”.

One egg had been in vinegar for a day and was already surrounded by bubbles, but the worse for wear ones had been soaking for only a few days longer. The experiments illustrated just one of the negative effects of increasing ocean acidity—seashells dissolving.

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The Q Lab display of eggs soaked in vinegar. The one middle of the back was only added in that day, but the one in the foreground, from three days earlier, had already disintegrated considerably. Top left is an extra egg in a jar of cola (admittedly it takes a longer time to disintegrate, but the end result is the same), which nicely illustrated to my son the effects of cola on his teeth and bones.

President’s Column

Exciting AMOS developments For those of us in the southern states, it’s getting cold.

With Melbourne recording numerous single digit minima during April along with maxima in the low teens, it is clear that winter is on the way. I’m certain by July many of us will be fed up with the cool weather and grey skies, and will savour the opportunity to head to Brisbane for the warmer weather and, of course, the annual AMOS conference.

The AMOS 2015 conference promises to be an exciting event. As I type this column, the science committee are reviewing abstracts, allocating talks, and constructing the program. We also have an outstanding group of invited speakers, along with a number of side events. Keep your eye on the conference website for more details and remember to register!

Planning for the 2016 conference in Melbourne is also underway. Stay tuned for further announcements over the coming months.

In addition to conferences and other regular AMOS business, I’m pleased to announce an exciting new development that promises to significantly benefit AMOS and our members. In March, AMOS signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Highlights of this agreement that directly affect members are:

• AMOS members residing in Australia are now eligible to be ‘Affiliate Members’ of the AMS; the dues for Affiliate Members are currently 66% of the normal member rate.

• AMOS will be listed as a co-sponsor of the AMS annual meeting, with AMOS members eligible for a reduced registration rate.

The full text of the current MoU, which is valid for five years, can be found here: http://www.amos.org.au/ aboutus/cid/11/parent/0/pid/11/t/aboutus/title/rulesand-regulations.

As always, a number of people helped solidify this important agreement. I’d particularly like to thank Neville Nicholls, John Zillman, and Mike Manton who met with the AMS leadership at their annual meeting in January and discussed AMOS/AMS relations.

To conclude this column, I’d like to remind you that the Uwe Radok award for best PhD thesis is currently open for nominations. Please see the article opposite. This is an important way to reward excellence and encourage our early-career members.

Todd Lane

News

Satellite constellation for weather forecasting Prof. John Le Marshall

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Bureau of Meteorology More than 50 scientists from many agencies around the globe this month gathered at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne to discuss the use of a constellation of weather satellites for weather forecasting, climate studies and space weather forecasting.

The Fourth International Radio Occultation Working Group Workshop has also discussed the imminent expansion of this constellation for the same purpose.

Data from this constellation which uses the bending of GPS signals by the atmosphere to measure temperature is already used operationally by the Bureau of Meteorology.

It has already improved weather forecasts in our region and added considerably to our ability to measure atmospheric temperature trends around the globe.

Australia will host a groundstation in northern Australia for the expanded version of this constellation which will be launched in 2016.

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An impression of the constellation in flight with a GPS transmitter.

Image credit: John Le Marshall.

News

Uwe Radok Award for Best PhD Thesis 2013/2014 Uwe Radok was one of Australia’s pioneers in meteorological and glaciological research. Becoming Head of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Melbourne in 1960, he played a leading role in the development of Australian Antarctic meteorology and glaciology. A meltwater lake about 9 km long, at the eastern extremity of the Aramis Range in the Prince Charles Mountains about 6 km west of Beaver Lake, and marked by a slender glacier tongue feeding into it, has been named the Radok Lake after him. Uwe Radok passed away on the morning of Friday 28 August 2009 at the age of 93.

In appreciation of Uwe Radok’s achievements, AMOS makes an annual award for the best PhD thesis for the preceding two years in the fields of meteorology, oceanography, glaciology or climatology awarded in Australia.

Application instructions To apply for the Uwe Radok award, candidates are invited to submit a short scientific paper (<2 pages including figures and references) summarising the key outcomes of their research, as well as a pdf version of their thesis.

The thesis must have been awarded by an Australian University. This should be supported by a letter from the supervisor or Head of School which outlines why the PhD is considered outstanding (including a synopsis of any relevant comments from the examiners) and which indicates the extent to which the high quality of the thesis is due to the student themselves rather than to the supervisor(s).

Submissions will be thoroughly reviewed by an AMOS scientific panel under the criteria of: a) significance and innovation;

The Award package

b) approach, methodology and presentation; and

• Invited oral presentation at AMOS 2016 Conference

c) potential longer-term benefit.

•

Award presentation at AMOS 2016 Conference

• fees

Waiver of 2016 AMOS conference registration

•

$500 prize money

•

Publication of summary paper in AMOS Bulletin

The academic supervisor may provide a brief statement stating any special effort made by a student from a nonEnglish speaking background.

Download the application form from: http://www.amos. org.au/documents/item/694 and email with the subject as Uwe Radok award to: admin@amos.org.au by Friday 30 May 2015.

Tropical Pacific approaches El Niño thresholds Bureau of Meteorology ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific are approaching El Niño levels. Sea surface temperatures now exceed El Niño thresholds and trade winds have remained weaker than average for several weeks. This suggests some coupling between the ocean and atmosphere may be occurring. If these patterns persist or strengthen, El Niño will become established.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the Southern Hemisphere spring. However, the accuracy of model outlooks at this time of year, the traditional El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period, is lower than at other times.

Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker is at ALERT status. This indicates that there is triple the normal chance of El Niño in 2015.

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El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and aboveaverage daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral and model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD for the coming months. From May to November, the IOD can impact Australian climate. However, the Indian Ocean remains much warmer than average, which is currently influencing the Australian rainfall outlook, with an increased chance of above-average rainfall in the near term.

For up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing, please visit the ENSO Tracker at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/ (current status is El Niño ALERT, next update is due 12 May 2015).

News

Massive kelp forest experiment to beat habitat loss Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania

One of 28 sites carrying 500 kelp plants to recreate a kelp forest in Mercury Passage, Maria Island.

Image credit: IMAS. Scientists have transplanted hundreds of kelp plants to artificial patch reefs in an experiment to test the resilience and stability of the important common kelp on Tasmania’s sheltered east coast.

Thinning of kelp and increased patchiness of kelp forests because of warming ocean temperatures and spreading of the invasive long-spined sea urchin are having significant impacts on the ecology of rocky reefs in eastern Australia, which are home to hundreds of species that use kelp forests as habitat.

The last handful of common kelp plants, Ecklonia radiata, were transplanted to the patch reefs this week to complete the first stage of the experiment by University of Tasmania researchers at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS).

The array of artificial reefs covers over a hectare, and it is thought to be the first time an experiment with transplanted kelp of this size has been conducted anywhere in the world.

IMAS PhD researcher Cayne Layton said the science team deployed 28 patch reefs at seven metres depth in Mercury Passage between Maria Island and the Tasmanian mainland. 500 plants were transplanted onto these reefs.

The common kelp occurs throughout the cool waters of Australia. The underwater forests it creates support highly productive and biodiverse ecosystems, including species such as rock lobster and abalone.

Mr Layton said kelp forests are a central feature of the region’s marine ecology, and familiar to divers, spearfishers, commercial and recreational fishers, and tourism operators.

“Understanding how kelp forests thrive and support themselves from one generation to the next is critical to protecting these invaluable marine ecosystems.”

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“Unfortunately, kelp forests are under threat from a range of pressures including coastal development, inappropriate fisheries activity, invasive species, and climate change.”

“Our research is examining how kelp forests change their surrounding environment, and how these changes in turn benefit future generations of kelp,” he said.

The work is supervised by Prof. Craig Johnson, Head of the IMAS Ecology and Biodiversity Centre, and Dr. Jeff Wright, also from IMAS. Prof. Johnson said his research team will monitor the constructed kelp forest for the next 18 months and examine how different densities of adult kelp and different patch sizes influence how the kelp affects its environment and its capacity to flourish.

For example, as adult kelp sweep back and forth in the swell they remove the sediment and sand beneath them, helping keep the rocks clean and clear and in the process making it more suitable for settlement of small kelp spores.

Mr Layton said scientists also will be deploying devices to collect larvae, which will allow examination of how the size and density of kelp forests affect the number of fish and invertebrates, such as lobsters and urchins, that settle into these underwater forests.

“We hope that by understanding these essential features of kelp forests we can help to maintain them and the services they provide in response to future threats and continuing ocean warming, and also gain a better understanding about how changes to our kelp forests may flow-on to affect the other organisms which also call kelp forests home,” Prof Johnson said.

Mr Layton said the research team is securing invaluable experience in the transplanting of kelp. “In the future this may be a method used to restore and rejuvenate areas which have already suffered widespread kelp loss due to impacts such as marine heatwaves, increased nutrients, or invasive sea urchins,” he said.

News

RV Investigator voyage yields surprising results Warrick Glynn & David Reilly

Integrated Marine Observing System, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre Data gathered from the first scientific voyage of Australia’s new National Marine Facility, the RV Investigator, is expected to provide unprecedented insights into the ways climate change is affecting the physical, chemical and biological properties of the Southern Ocean.

Cloud formations are an important factor in climate predictions yet they remain the single greatest source of uncertainty in current models used in forecasting. The RV Investigator carries highly specialised weather radar for measuring clouds.

An upward looking radar was also installed specifically for this voyage by the Bureau of Meteorology, under the leadership of Dr. Alain Protat. The Bureau radar is able to send 800 microwave pulses every second and collect data within a 150 km radius of the ship and 20 km into the atmosphere.

One of the most surprising and interesting early findings came when the research team pointed the radar into the Southern Ocean sky. Information from the radar, combined with data from a newly deployed air-sea flux mooring and images from a satellite passing overhead revealed something previously unknown.

Observing System (IMOS). These moorings are capable of measuring a large array of ocean properties including temperature, salinity, currents, waves, and biological activity, in addition to atmospheric conditions.

The largest mooring, the Southern Ocean Flux Station, measures the air-sea heat flux—or the rate at which the ocean absorbs heat from solar radiation and the surrounding atmosphere. Since 2008 IMOS has committed to a long-term investment in this infrastructure in order to build time series data which are important in climate research.

Data on heat transfer is relayed back via satellite, where this can be viewed in near real time on the IMOS data portal.

Prof. Tom Trull from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) and Dr. Eric Schulz from the Bureau led the voyage and will analyse data from the moorings as well as data collected via the vessel’s new radar equipment.

“We were able to get readings from all these systems at the same time, which in turn allowed us to get a very precise understanding of the radiative impact of these clouds,” said Dr. Protat.

“What we found was that the satellite simply was not seeing the lower level clouds that sit in the bottom kilometre and a half of the atmosphere.”

Low altitude clouds are more common in the Southern Ocean than elsewhere in the world. This is potentially very important in understanding the rate of heat uptake by the ocean.

“If we want to quantify that and understand how and why that is happening, we need to understand what the clouds are doing in the lower atmosphere,” said Dr. Protat.

The implication, according to Dr Protat, is that climate models would need to account for satellites not picking up low-level cloud over the Southern Ocean.

The otherwise successful voyage to the Southern Ocean saw the redeployment of three high-precision deepwater moorings as part of Australia’s Integrated Marine

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Deployment of the Southern Ocean Flux Station mooring from the RV Investigator’s A-Frame. Image credit: The Marine National Facility

News

Cruising the unknown with Falkor

University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, Schmidt Ocean Institute

A month-long expedition to Scott Reef and submerged shoals off the Kimberley coast on board the US-based Schmidt Ocean Institute’s research vessel Falkor is nearly at an end.

Chief Scientist and University of Western Australia (UWA) Oceans Institute Prof. Greg Ivey, said researchers from UWA, The Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), Stanford University, and Griffith University were excited about the cruise, which supports both physical and biological research.

“Our combined work will improve understanding of this biological hotspot,” he said. “Results will help underpin management of this region through improved understanding of the key biophysical processes.”

The scientists are exploring the connections between ocean circulation, habitat patterns and benthic biodiversity on two deep-reef ecosystems in the region.

Dr. Andrew Heyward, chief AIMS scientist on board Falkor, has made initial observations of some of the deeper water areas in previous years and is revisiting them using the advanced mapping and imaging equipment the Falkor brings to the project. “Using fixed moorings and a full suite of oceanographic sensors from the ship, the cruise will map the ocean circulation and seabed environment in fine detail, measure the structure and productivity of the overlying water column, and see how this information links to patterns of habitats observed on the seabed.”

The seafloor and bottom coral communities will be mapped using the Falkor’s Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) sending real time high definition video to the Falkor’s Science Control Room. In addition to the live video feed, the ROV carries multiple cameras recording both forward and downward views, with the location of every image precisely known. This allows the scientists to create detailed habitat maps of the major habitats, like those dominated by deeper water corals, and understand the linkage to the local ocean circulation and turbulent mixing.

The Falkor completed a two-week exploration of the Perth Canyon in March. The Canyon, a deep ocean gorge the size of the Grand Canyon in the US, starts about 30 km off Fremantle and reaches depths of more than four km.

Top: The ROV SAAB Sea Eye sinks beneath the surface for an evening of exploration. Credit: Schmidt Ocean Institute/ Cordelia Moore.

Above: Falkor is currently exploring Scott Reef. Credit: Schmidt Ocean Institute Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 30

The canyon was otherwise relatively unstudied. However, Falkor’s state-of-the-art mapping systems and the ROV, which penetrates depths of more than 2,000 m, allowed the research team to examine the canyon. They discovered unusual deep-sea communities as well as an autonomous ocean glider that was lost for two years.

You can access the daily blog from researchers aboard the Scott Reef expedition here: www.schmidtocean.org

News

International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) Tom Beer, IAMAS National Correspondent

IAMAS officers are presently busy preparing for the IUGG General Assembly to be held in Prague 21 June–2 July 2015 at the Prague Congress Centre.

The IAMAS Executive Committee will hold two General Assembly meetings for IAMAS Officers and National Correspondents on Tuesday 23 June, 12:30–15:30 and Friday 26 June, 15:00–18:00 Scientists interested in IAMAS activities are welcome to attend as observers but should notify the IAMAS Secretary-General beforehand of their intention to attend.

Vice-President (2 to be elected to 4-year term) Prof. Joyce Penner, USA, nominated by the U.S. (Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution) Dr. Laura Gallardo Klenner, Chile, nominated by the IAMAS Bureau (Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution) Secretary General (one to be elected to 8-year term) Prof. Teruyuki Nakajima, Japan, nominated by IRC (Radiation and Modelling)

National Representatives have been invited, if appropriate, to give a five minute presentation on the state of meteorological and atmospheric sciences research in their country. If anyone has material that they would like included in a report from Australia then please notify Tom Beer (tom.beer@safesystemsolutions.com.au) before 1 June.

Member-at-Large (three to be elected to 8–year term)

The nominations committee has presented a slate of candidates for election for the 2015-2019 period as follows:

Dr. Iracema Cavalcanti, Brazil, nominated by the nominating committee (Monsoon and Extremes research)

Nominees for 2015-2019

Dr. Florinela Georgescu, Romania, nominated by Romania (Operational Meteorology)

President (one to be elected to 4-year term) Prof. John Turner, UK, nominated by ICPM (Polar Meteorology)

News from the Centres

Dr. Lisa Alexander, Australia, nominated by Australia (Radiation, Middle Atmosphere) Dr. Keith Alverson, USA/Kenya, nominated by US in that he is US citizen based at UNESCO in Kenya (Climate/ Ocean Observations)

Dr. Wojciech W. Grabowski, USA/Poland, nominated by ICCP (Cloud Precipitation) Past President will be Athena Coustenis (France).

Melbourne Centre News Nick Earl

Melbourne Centre The Weather Tipping launch took place at the BoM Victoria Regional Office in Docklands on 25 March.

Attendees included students and post-docs from Melbourne and Monash University, Bureau forecasters and CSIRO scientists.

Proceedings began with Frank Drost giving an short introduction to AMOS, highlighting the advantages of joining the society, the events that AMOS are involved in and how to utilise the website.

This was followed by a weather chart discussion by the 2014 Weather Tipping winner himself, Harvey Stern.

Harvey took us through the forecast performances of the ACCESS, ECMWF and GFS models for the previous week and discussed the potential reasons for any disagreement between them. The El Niño situation was then covered, reviewing the current sea surface temperatures and the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 31

phase of various indices, before Harvey took us through the ACCESS prognoses for the coming week. The talk ended with a lively discussion on the Autumn predictability barrier for long-range forecasts before Harvey gave some advice on the winning of the 2014 competition, “don’t forget to submit your prediction!”.

The Weather Tipping developers Rachel Badlan and Luke Garde explained the rules of the 2015 competition along with the explanation of how to join up and how to play.

The 2015 prizes were also announced.

Proceedings were brought to a close with a platter of cheese, snacks and wine, along with some excited chatter about the upcoming competition and who will be crowned 2015 Weather Tipping champion. My money’s on Harvey to reclaim the title!

News from the Centres

NSW Centre News Fiona Johnson Chair, NSW Centre

Extreme Trivia. Credit: Fiona Johnson

In conjunction with the World Climate Research Program Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes workshop at UNSW in February (see page 45 for more.

—Ed.), we held an Extreme Trivia evening to network with the international visitors and learn a bit more about extremes in the climate around the world. With our quiz masters Agata Imielska and Lisa Alexander and divided into teams of international experts, AMOS members and CCRC researchers, we had an enjoyable evening attempting to remember the highest daily rainfall recorded in Australia or the sea surface temperature required to generate a tropical cyclone. One round saw all teams take on Australia’s own climate trivia guru, Dr. Blair Trewin, who won hands down.

ACT Centre News Bob Cechet

Chair, ACT Centre The A.C.T. AMOS Branch took the opportunity to celebrate World Meteorological Day with a joint event with the Bureau of Meteorology, held at the Bureau facility in Civic.

Lucy McGarva and Dr. Julien Lerat hosted a talk on our theme: “The role of the Bureau in the global climate observation network and forecasting our water resources”.

AMOS members received a rundown of some of the new/

updated web data services available including floods, stream flows and Murray Darling Basin monitoring data.

This was the first AMOS branch meeting of the year, where traditionally the student prizes are awarded. The winners of the 2014 prizes are: A.C.T. AMOS 2nd Year Student Award: Ellen Cliff (ANU, RSES) A.C.T. AMOS 3rd Year Student Award (this year, jointly awarded): Ellen McRae (ANU, RSES) & Sonya Wellby (ANU, FSES) A.C.T. AMOS Presentation Award: Rachael Griffiths (UNSW, PEMS); with Honourable Mentions to Jacqui Clements (UNSW) & Sonya Wellby (ANU)

Three of the winners (L to R; Sonya Welby, Ellen Cliff and Rachael Griffiths) with Bob Cechet (Chair. A.C.T. AMOS Branch).

The Presentation Award is given to the best student presentation at the previous year’s XMAS/AGM function.

The very high standard of the 2014 presentations resulted in the A.C.T. committee yielding to relentless pressure from Emeritus Professor De Deckker (ANU) to award ALL presenters. The prizes were a framed certificate as well as a cash contribution.

Tasmania Centre News Andrew Marshall Chair, Hobart Centre

The Hobart Centre of AMOS has secured a 2015 National Science Week grant for their upcoming public lecture and forum on impacts of the East Australian Current on Tasmania, a joint event with the Australian Marine Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 32

Sciences Association. Events will be held in association with the University of Tasmania in Hobart on 18 August and Launceston on 19 August. (http://www.scienceweek. net.au/2015-national-grant-round-recipients).

Comment

Melting moments: under East Antarctica’s biggest glacier Tas van Ommen Senior Principal Research Scientist, Climate and Ice at Australian Antarctic Division

The Totten Glacier, the largest in East Antarctica, has deep channels running beneath it that may allow relatively warm water into its belly.

Image credit: Tas van Ommen.

It’s 11 o’clock on a January evening in 2011 as our venerable old DC-3 aircraft banks over Casey Station, in the last golden rays of an Antarctic sunset. Offshore, an armada of giant icebergs sits stalled in the relative shallows along Peterson Bank, a mix of dusky pink highlights and violet shadows.

Inside the aircraft we shut down our instruments, and I strap myself back in my seat before the gentle bump and swoosh of the snowy landing – another mission under our belts.

The ICECAP (International Collaboration for Exploration of the Cryosphere through Aerogeophysical Profiling) project—a collaboration between US, British and Australian Antarctic researchers—has been mapping the East Antarctic ice sheet to look for changes. On our many flights, we have used radar, laser, geomagnetic and gravity

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instruments to survey an area the size of New South Wales, inland from Casey Station. So far, the flights have covered a total of 150,000 km over the frozen continent’s vast eastern expanse.

And it turns out that East Antarctica needs careful watching. The project is giving us a new look at the underside of the ice sheet in East Antarctica, and causing significant concerns for future increases in sea level. One of the project’s major recent discoveries is that the terrain under the region’s biggest and most important glacier may make it more vulnerable to melting than we thought.

Before embarking on the ICECAP project, there were huge gaps in our maps of the bedrock under the ice.

The region contains some of the thickest, deepest ice on the continent, more than 4 km thick, and it’s a place we need to map as we look for a good site to drill an elusive

Comment “million-year” ice core.

Generally, we expected the mapping surveys to reveal a picture of a stable ice sheet, not likely to be affected by changes wreaked by climate warming like the more vulnerable West Antarctica. But this view was to change.

The melting monster Satellite monitoring drew our attention to a hot-spot right beside our Casey hub. The Totten Glacier is the largest glacier in East Antarctica. It drains most of the area of our survey, every year discharging more than 70 cubic km of water into the Southern Ocean. The monster glacier reaches the coast behind a large rocky obstacle known as Law Dome.

Casey Station sits on the west side of Law Dome, while the Totten Glacier runs out on the east. As it does so, it carves a deep trench more than 2 km below sea level, through which the ice emerges and begins to float. Our satellite measurements were showing that just around this point where the ice begins floating, the Totten is thinning and its surface height is lowering by about 2 m per year. ICECAP researchers set about measuring the Totten Glacier’s outlet, so we could understand what is happening.

The project’s results have quite dramatically shifted our view of East Antarctica, in terms of both the overall picture of ice stability in the region, and the implications of the changes in the Totten Glacier itself. The previous view was that, aside from a poorly mapped valley far inland of Casey called the Aurora Basin, most of the ice was resting on hills and mountains, well above sea level.

But it turns out that Aurora Basin is very deep and much larger than we thought.

More seriously, the basin is connected to the coast by terrain that is extensively below sea level. This makes it much more like West Antarctica, where there is serious concern that gradual but irreversible ice loss is already

under way. The prospect that such a pattern could also impact East Antarctica is a new one—and the prospect that the Totten Glacier’s thinning could herald a similar process of accelerating ice loss in East Antarctica is deeply concerning.

Glaciers and groundwork To appreciate the physical situation, some glaciology is needed. First, outlet glaciers like Totten meet the ocean in floating ice shelves, where they calve icebergs and also melt in the relatively warmer ocean. These ice shelves are buttressed against the coast on their sides and also, in cases like Totten, are very congested at the calving front.

This acts like a “cork in a bottle” that slows the ice as it flows to the sea. But any loss of the ice shelf or retreat of the calving front can let this cork pop out.

A second factor can kick in when the glacier rests below sea level, on a bed that deepens towards its interior. In this situation, if the ice retreats, a runaway process of accelerating flow and further retreat is unstoppable until the ice reaches a point where the bed begins to rise again.

In the case of Totten Glacier, a retreat all the way into the deep Aurora Basin would release enough melted ice over the coming centuries to raise sea levels by at least 3.5 m —similar to the potential contribution from the whole of West Antarctica.

What’s more, my colleagues and I recently identified at least two deep channels reaching back under the glacier front, which may provide a way for warm water to reach deep under the glacier, and could explain the observed thinning and lowering. We discovered the channels with the help of airborne radar and gravity measurements, but what we really need next are direct ocean measurements.

Plans are being considered for use of remotely controlled underwater vehicles and robot floats dropped from the air to investigate what is really happening under the Totten Glacier.

Better mapping of the region’s bedrock and ocean cavities will also help us match observations with computer model simulations of the ice and oceans, which will be crucial in predicting the changes we can expect East Antarctica to undergo in the future.

Drones and submarines will help gather these measurements, but there is still plenty of work ahead, and it’s fair to say that our old workhorse DC3 aircraft will be busy surveying East Antarctica for many years to come.

This article was orginally published on The Conversation https://theconversation.com/melting-moments-a-lookunder-east-antarcticas-biggest-glacier-40960

The Totten Glacier drains a huge area of East Antarctica. Image credit: Tas van Ommen.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 34

Comment

Measuring the value of science: it’s not always about the money Rod Lamberts Deputy Director, Australian National Centre for Public Awareness of Science at Australian National University

Science can help explain the mysteries of the universe but how do you put a dollar value on that? Image credit: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center at https:// www.flickr.com/photos/nasamarshall/4093925956/. Shared by CC BY-NC-ND 2.0: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/ Reports about the worthy contributions of science to national economies pop up regularly all around the world—from the UK to the US and even the developing world.

In Australia, the Office of the Chief Scientist recently released an analysis of science and its contribution to the economy down under, finding its worth is around $145 billion a year.

It’s perfectly sensible and understandable that science (and related sectors) would feel the need to account for themselves in financial or economic terms. But in doing this we need to be wary of getting lulled into believing that this is the only—or worse, the best—way of attributing value to science.

When it comes to determining the value of science, we should heed the words of the American environmental scientist and thinker, Donella Meadows, on how we think about indicators: “Indicators arise from values (we measure what we care about), and they create values (we care about what we measure). Indicators are often poorly chosen […]

The choice of indicators is a critical determinant of the behaviour of a system.”

Much public debate about the value of science has been hijacked by the assumption that direct, tangible economic impact is the way to measure scientific worth.

We seem now to be in a place where positing noneconomic arguments for science benefits runs the risk of being branded quaintly naïve and out-of-touch at best, or worse: insensitive, irrelevant and self-serving.

But relegating science to the status of mere servant of the economy does science a dramatic disservice and leaves Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 35

both science and society the poorer for it.

So here are five ways we can acknowledge and appreciate the societal influences and impacts of science that lie well beyond the dreary, soulless, cost-benefit equations of economics.

Testing and presenting ideas and the great tools to do it The mechanisms of scientific enterprise have proven their worth time and again. The formulation of challengeable hypotheses, and the increasingly sophisticated methods we use to test them, have repeatedly been confirmed as the most potent tools for finding out things about our world.

The scientific method has helped us make sense of the world in a way that counters our natural tendencies to make connections and draw conclusions that simply aren’t true.

For example, the issue of correlation and causation, and how we regularly mess this up if we don’t apply rigorous scientific and statistical reasoning.

Scientific reasoning protects us and saves us from ourselves Scientific thinking and reasoning—and the social and institutional capital that often comes with it—help free us from control by superstition, magical thinking and unscrupulous power-seekers.

Science has been our guide, our sword and our shield, when identifying all manner of evils. Think the connection between smoking and disease, the damage of humaninduced climate change, or waking us up to the first rule of gambling: that the house always wins.

While there are benefits to the economy in saving lives or working to stem the effects of climate change, these are not the first, nor even the most, significant effects on us

Comment as individuals.

Meaning, worth and expressing the best of ourselves

Inspire, motivate and delight

We already know that science can free us from the tyranny of superstition, ignorance and devious influences.

By pushing the boundaries of what is possible, science has repeatedly inspired and facilitated humanity’s ability to not just dream, but to turn our most ambitious dreams in to reality.

People now live into their 70s and 80s as a matter of routine, we easily and instantly communicate with any part of the globe on a whim and we have even left the planet itself.

A quick search for the most popular science sites on the web turns up an armful of space-related material, explainers on how things works and general science story aggregators. If economic benefits are even mentioned, they are frequently an afterthought at best.

At my own university, the most popular video on our YouTube channel is a physics lecture on the great unsolved mysteries of the universe. Yes, a lecture. An hour-long lecture, filmed in lo-fi nearly five years ago.

(Please see link for video: https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=n19HIHCpOVE—Ed.) The inspirational effects of science are powerful, ubiquitous, and are by no means limited to contested contributions to the economy. And this is just the tangible, more obvious stuff.

Challenging the status-quo and inspiring reflection Equipped with scientific methods and reasoning, no subject need be off the table for reasoned debate, discussion and dissent. In science, no subject is taboo as long as the methods for considering it are scientific.

This ethos allows us to challenge the assumptions upon which fundamental norms are based without worrying that rogue, opposing ideas might somehow infect us.

The application of scientific reasoning allowed us, for example, to discover that the sun doesn’t revolve around the Earth and to recognise there are more than two straight-forward biological representations of human sexes.

Pushed further, respect for the appropriate application of scientific thinking accepts challenges to the very basis of our beliefs about ourselves as a species.

Nowhere is this more powerfully confronted than in Australian-born philosopher Peter Singer’s thoughtprovoking dismemberment of our rationale for justifying experimentation on non-human animals that we would not conduct on ourselves.

Yes, greasing the economic wheels of day-to-day subsistence is important, but reflecting upon, and challenging how we understand what makes us human?

That’s something you’d be hard pressed to cost-out for your bank manager.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 36

At its finest, it provides a model for exploring and understanding anything in the tangible universe. But science and its products also offer a vehicle for considering what it is to be human, not just physically but esoterically.

Science can offer a sense of mystery and connectedness that doesn’t rely on faith or appeals to authority and dogma. It can provide a humbling, perspective-smashing sense of the scale of the stuff of the universe and our place in relation to it (from sub-atomic to galactic and beyond).

I say this not to usurp the place of religion for those to whom it is important. On this I agree with American physicist and writer Alan Lightman when he says: “Science does not reveal the meaning of our existence, but it does draw back some of the veils.”

For atheists like me though, I am more moved by sentiments like those expressed by Ann Druyan, the widow of the American astronomer Carl Sagan, who said Carl saw science as a kind of “informed worship”.

Science can provide a wonderful path to connecting with something bigger and more profound than ourselves, without requiring divine support.

So anyway …

I’m not so idealistic that I’d argue money doesn’t matter. It matters. It matters a lot. But to accept without contest that it is the most important, realistic or mature way to measure value in society is not only diminishing, it’s perverse.

Science helps us see that we are more than just the sum of our economic outputs and contributions (how often do you hear Einstein, Newton or Curie lauded for their contributions to the economy?).

Science helps us accept that idealism is okay, even beneficial. Science is as intrinsic to culture and culturalidentity as high-culture (think music, poetry, literature, painting and the like).

Science provides a refuge for those of us who know that knowledge for its own sake can be intrinsically valuable. It supports we who appreciate that there can be immeasurable value in judging human endeavours using indicators that stretch far beyond the mundanities of improving wages or boosting trade.

Yes there are benefits of science that can be measured by their contribution to GDP, but that doesn’t mean they should be.

This article was orginally published on The Conversation http://theconversation.com/measuring-the-value-ofscience-its-not-always-about-the-money-39361

Special Feature

AMOS 2015 guest speakers With this year’s conference only months away, we take a closer look at our distinguished guest speakers.

William B (Bill) Gail

David Schultz

Guest Dinner Speaker

Plenary

William B. Gail is Chief Technology Officer of Global Weather Corporation, a provider of precision forecasts for weather-sensitive business sectors, and is the current PastPresident of the American Meteorological Society. He was previously a Director in the Startup Business Group at Microsoft, Vice President of mapping products at Vexcel Corporation, and Director of Earth science programs at Ball Aerospace.

Dr. Gail received his undergraduate degree in Physics and his PhD in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University, where his research focused on physics of the Earth’s magnetosphere. During this period, he spent a year as cosmic ray field scientist at South Pole Station.

Dr. Gail is a lifetime Associate of the US National Academy of Science’s research council and is currently a member of their Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. He has participated on a number of Academy committees, including the 2012 review of the National Weather Service and the 2007 Decadal Survey that recommended a 10-year NASA/NOAA satellite plan. He serves or has served on a variety of editorial, corporate, and organizational boards and is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.

His book Climate Conundrums: What the Climate Debate Reveals About Us was published in 2014.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 37

David Schultz is Professor of Synoptic Meteorology, University of Manchester. He was born in Pittsburgh, PA, got his BSc from MIT, MSc from University of Washington, and PhD from University at Albany, State University of New York. He won the American Meteorological Society Editor’s Award for Monthly Weather Review in 2001, where he has served as the Chief Editor since 2008. He has published over 118 peer-reviewed articles on synoptic and mesoscale meteorology, forecasting, scientific publishing, and education. He is a Fellow of the UK Higher Education Academy and winner of the student-led Manchester Teaching Awards (2012) and the University of Manchester Teaching Excellence Award (2014). He is also the author of Eloquent Science: A Practical Guide to Becoming a Better Writer, Speaker, and Atmospheric Scientist.

Special Feature

AMOS 2015 guest speakers Robyn Williams AM

Rod Lamberts

Moderator for the public forum, Tuesday 14 July, 6:00 p.m.

Communications Workshop, Friday 17 July, 7:00 a.m.

Robyn Williams is a science journalist and a long-serving presenter on Radio National, most notably with the Science Show (since 1975), who has also conducted countless interviews with scientists for ABC TV programs.

In 1993 he was the first journalist elected as a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science. In 1988, he received an Honorary Doctorate in Science from the Universities of Sydney, Macquarie and Deakin. The ANU awarded him a Doctorate of Law, and he is a Visiting Professor at the University of NSW and an Adjunct Professor at the University of Queensland.

Robyn was appointed AM in the 1988 Australian Bicentenary Honours list. He was elected a National Living Treasure by the National Trust in 1987 and has a star named after him by the Sydney Observatory.

Robyn has authored a number of books. Future Perfect focuses on cities, transport, communication, education and science.

Although Robyn graduated with a Bachelor of Science (Honours) in England, he has also made a name for himself as an actor, with guest appearances in The Goodies, Monty Python’s Flying Circus and Dr. Who.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 38

Dr. Rod Lamberts is Deputy Director of the Australian National Centre for the Public Awareness of Science (CPAS) at the Australian National University (ANU), a founding partner of the Ångstrom Group, and a former National President of the Australian Science Communicators (retired injured in 2013).

He has more than 18 years experience as a science communication practitioner, facilitator and researcher and has at least once been referred to as an expert of international standing in the field. Rod has provided science communication advice to a wide variety of private and public science-related agencies in Australia and overseas (including the CSIRO, UNESCO & APPEA) and is a regular public commentator on science, science communication, and science and public policy.

When not lurking at the ANU, he can be heard on ABC RN Drive’s Research Filter or found regaling people as the co-host of the irreverent theme-driven (and sometimes evidenced-based) chat show Kindathinky (kindathinky. com).

Special Feature Karl Braganza Plenary Karl Braganza is currently the manager of Climate Monitoring at the Bureau of Meteorology’s National Climate Centre. The Climate Monitoring section is responsible for the preparation, analysis and reporting of Australia’s climate record. Karl received his PhD from the School of Mathematics at Monash University and his research work has centred on understanding and attributing climate variability and change.

Dr John Church Plenary John Church is a CSIRO Fellow with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research.

His area of expertise is the role of the ocean in climate, particularly anthropogenic climate change. He is an expert in estimating and understanding global and regional sea-level rise. He is the author of over 130 refereed publications, over 80 other reports and co-edited three books. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science, the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering and the American Meteorological Society.

Beth Ebert Plenary (AMOS R.H. Clarke Lecture) Beth Ebert leads the Weather and Climate Information Program in the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) in the Bureau of Meteorology.

Her research interests include diagnostic forecast verification methods, satellite precipitation estimation, and ensemble prediction.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 39

Dr. Ebert co-chaired the WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research and is a member of the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee. She received her Ph.D. in Meteorology in 1987 from the University of Wisconsin.

Yi Huang Plenary (AMOS Uwe Radok Award 2014) Yi Huang is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University. She got her B.S. in Atmospheric Science in 2007, M.S. in Meteorology in 2009, both from Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China. She was the winner of the University’s “Scholarship of Excellence”, “Panasonic Scholarship for Top Students”, and “Outstanding Bachelor Thesis”. Yi commenced her Ph.D. at Monash University in 2009, working with A/Prof. Steve Siems and Prof.

Michael Manton. Her thesis titled “Observation and Simulations of Cloud Thermodynamic Phase over the Southern Ocean” provides new insights in addressing the biases currently found in climate models over the poorly understood Southern Ocean. Her research has produced three first-author, high-quality publications, which are repeatedly cited in the white paper for “Southern Ocean Clouds Radiation and Aerosols Transport Experimental Studies (SOCRATES)” that has been recently submitted to the US National Science Foundation.

Sophie Lewis Plenary (AMOS Early Career Research Award 2014) Sophie is a Research Fellow in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne.

She investigates Australian weather and climate extremes, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall and drought. Her primary research looks at the changes in the likelihood of extreme climate events due to anthropogenic climate change using climate models. Sophie completed her PhD at The Australian National University in 2011.

Article

JFK and the pathway to research dollars Paul Holper Paul Holper & Associates

Conferences provide opportunities to make new connections. Image credit: Paul Holper.

This year’s AMOS conference focuses on communicating research. This is an important subject. After all, research won’t have any impact if no one knows about it.

Communication serves many purposes, including helping to attract research funding. This funding can come from government (federal, state and local), business, philanthropic funds and international sources.

If you are to be successful as a scientist, chances are that you will need to develop your fund-raising skills.

Communication lies at the heart of the process.

So let’s start with a quotation from one of the greatest communicators of the 20th century. In January 1961 at his inaugural US Presidential address, John F. Kennedy exhorted: ‘Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country’.

I can think of only three reasons why someone will pay for your science: 1.

Helping the government or agency deliver on its promises (making them look good)

2.

Saving money

3.

Making money

Consider your research in these terms. Focus on potential audiences and their needs.

You have Australia’s best database on tropical cyclone tracks. A company planning offshore gas rigs in northern Australia might be interested in statistics and trends for their region to guide their designs. That’s point 2—saving money.

I’m going to paraphrase. ‘‘Ask not what your research can do for you—ask what your research can do for your client’.

This is your take home message from this article. You can stop reading now. Everything that follows is just padding.

Your chemistry module includes 1,000 reactions involved in formation of photochemical smog. The EPA might fund you to test the effectiveness of planned regulations on the concentrations of peroxyacyl nitrates present in smog. Point 1.

That JFK (mis)quote will guide everything you do in searching for funding and partnerships for your research.

You need to think about the applications of your work.

You have skills in helping people adapt to climate change.

There are some 190 countries that might be interested in chatting. Points 1 and 2.

Your agency, if you work in one, will probably have senior scientists and business development folk with experience in seeking funds. Get their advice. There will almost certainly be protocols regarding approaching external agencies. Coordination is vital. A company will not be impressed to receive four separate overtures offering four separate world-best models.

Consult widely. Chances are that your research will have applications you haven’t thought of yet.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 40

Getting down to business Make a list of potential funders. Label them ‘stakeholders’ and you’ll look as if you know what you are doing.

Find out who has relationships with these people. If they

Article say “oh, we’ve never got money from them”, put them at the top of your list.

A phone call is 10 times better than an email and a meeting with someone is 10 times better than a phone call.

You are going to ring people, visit people, call in favours, get recommendations and shout people coffee. I know of an example where a $3.00 coffee led to $100,000 of science funding.

Your schmoozing will be more successful if it is part of a carefully crafted communication plan. Your communicator is your friend. So before your contact sips their cappuccino, they will have seen the article on your work in the paper, read your tweets and scanned your LinkedIn profile.

There are as many ways to engage with stakeholders as there are to demonstrate irrefutably the existence of human-induced climate change. Happily, you don’t have to be the climate science community’s answer to Brian Cox to take advantage of them. If you’re more of a listener than a talker, conferences, exhibitions, workshops and social events are all great opportunities to find out who’s who, and make new contacts in the coffee queue.

Never underestimate the time it will take to go from coffee to contract. I had a lead in developing the pitch for the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI). It took the best part of three years and the work of quite a team to bring in more than $8 million external funding.

Key to our success was a series of stakeholder-led workshops.

When you sense that success is imminent, ensure that you have done all the internal engagement that will be needed to complete the deal. You will have kept your manager well informed, so your achievement will be no surprise to them. Contact contracting, liaise with legal, find finance, communicate with comms, ID your IP. Your research is now secure for the foreseeable future. But before you get on to that, we just have a little organisational paperwork for you to complete.

Paul Holper, with Simon Torok (CSIRO), Karen Pearce (Bloom Communication) and special guests will conduct a panel session on “attracting research funding” at the forthcoming AMOS conference in Brisbane. (12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Friday 17 July 2015.

GREENHOUSE 2015: Atmosphere, oceans and ice Antarctica , 3 January 2013.

Image credit: Christopher Michel, https://www.flickr.com/ photos/cmichel67/8374723696, shared under CC By-2.0: https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/2.0/.

The next conference in CSIRO’s influential GREENHOUSE series will be held this year in Hobart from 27 to 30 October.

Taking advantage of the strength of Southern Hemisphere climate change science in Tasmania, GREENHOUSE 2015 will focus on atmosphere, oceans and ice.

adaptation. There will also be a poster display and parallel sessions on:

GREENHOUSE 2015 presents an opportunity for scientists and representatives from industry and all levels of government to discuss and learn about the science of climate change, and consider the implications for Australia and the region.

As always, networking and information sharing will be key features of the conference, enhanced by a strong university presence. In fact, the final day of the conference will be devoted to university science.

Invited speakers and panel sessions will focus on southern hemisphere science, climate and society, and science and Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 41

•

Air, land and sea observations: the latest science

•

Science informing impacts and adaptation

•

Climate modelling and projections

•

Climate variability and extreme events

•

Communication policy and economics

The call for abstracts for these sessions has gone out, with abstract submissions being accepted via the conference website (www.greenhouse2015.com) until 6 July 2015.

To find out more about GREENHOUSE 2015, or to register, please the conference website. You can also follow @greenhouse2015 on Twitter for the latest conference news, updates to the program and deadline reminders.

Article

Science meets Parliament 2015 Andrew King and Robyn Schofield Science meets Parliament is an annual event designed to demonstrate the economic, political and social value of science and innovation.

It also provides a stimulating professional development opportunity for delegates as they interact directly with parliamentarians, policymakers and journalists. AMOS sponsors two people to attend Science meets Parliament each year. This year the successful nominees were Andrew King and Robyn Schofield.

Scientists from across Australia gathered in Canberra for a two-day meeting on 24 and 25 March to help us develop our communication skills and provide an opportunity to meet with parliamentarians and other policy-makers.

Amongst the 200 attendees were several climate scientists (Sophie Lewis from the Australian National University and Helen McGregor from the University of Wollongong) as well as ourselves.

On day one we had seminars on how to talk to people in the media and politics and what they want from scientists (hint: it’s not a long discussion of different methods and uncertainties!). We also heard from the Director of Questacon, Professor Graham Durant, who told us of how science inspires Australians and how we could better harness that enthusiasm people have. We then heard from Nobel Prize winner Professor Brian Schmidt and Professor Hugh White giving their advice on how to interact with policymakers and parliamentarians. An interactive session getting us to summarise our research and why it’s important in one minute taught us how to better explain our research to an audience outside our research fields.

The day was rounded off with a special Gala Dinner at Parliament House. We mingled with fellow scientists Andrew stands outside Parliament House.

Robyn asks a question at Science meets Parliament with Sophie Lewis.

Image credit: Lorna Sim.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 42

and politicians before hearing speeches from Catherine Livingstone (President of the Business Council of Australia), Ian Macfarlane MP (Minister for Industry and Science), and Bill Shorten MP (Leader of the Opposition). These speeches highlighted the importance of science to Australian society and the economy as well as the challenges facing science. In particular, Bill Shorten highlighted the lack of a Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) strategy in Australia and the need for a clearer vision for the future of science in this country.

Day two began with the Chief Scientist, Prof. Ian Chubb, launching a report demonstrating the importance of science to Australia’s economy. At a conservative estimate of $145 billion of direct benefit (or 11% of Australia’s economic activity) it is very clear that science plays a major role in Australia’s prosperity. We were fortunate to then be able to attend the National Press Club meeting where Prof. Chubb gave a speech on the report before going to Question Time in the Houses of Representatives and the Senate where we saw politicians discussing the report amongst other issues. This was followed by a Q&A session with the heads of the ARC and NHMRC and MPs Dr. Dennis Jensen and Dr. Andrew Laming. We heard useful insights on how MPs approach issues raised by the scientific community, but also some concerning remarks from Dr. Jensen regarding his views on the climate science community. The meeting was rounded off with drinks with MPs who have a particular interest in science: Karen Andrews, Richard Marles and Dr. Adam Bandt.

Throughout Science meets Parliament we were also fortunate to be able to meet with a specific MP or senator.

Andrew met with Dr. Adam Bandt, the member for Melbourne, and they discussed climate science and science communication in general. Robyn met with Mark Dreyfus QC MP, who was parliamentary secretary for climate change and energy efficiency between 2010-2013 and now shadow Attorney-General. With Mark Dreyfus being so knowledgeable in climate change policy the discussion was broad and included atmospheric chemistry/air quality issues relevant to the public consultation on the National Clean Air Agreement occurring at that time.

We would like to thank AMOS for providing funding for our attendance at Science meets Parliament—we came away with fantastic new contacts and insights. We thank Science and Technology Australia for organising the event and encourage people to attend future events.

Article

Warming hiatuses less likely in future climate Nicola Maher Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales

In this article, PhD candidate Nicola Maher takes us through her recent publication on pauses in the rise of global average air temperatures. She also explains the likely implications for future events in the face of climate change.

The much talked about pause in global average air temperatures over the past decade is not an unusual event in the observational record, even with global warming [Easterling and Wehner, 2009]. However, recent research [Maher et al., 2014] has revealed there is little chance of a hiatus decade occurring beyond 2030.

Simulations from 31 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models were used in this study to investigate historical causes of hiatus decades and the likelihood of a hiatus occurring into the future. For this study hiatus periods were defined as 10-year periods with a trend in globally averaged surface air temperature (SAT) that was less than zero.

The temporary pauses in surface warming over the past 100 years are found to be caused by two factors. The first are large tropical volcanic eruptions, which are known to cause a cooling of the SAT, due to an increase in sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere [Timmreck, 2012]. The second cause is a transition to a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO is a decadal mode of

1

(a) The role of anthropogenic forcing

The probability of a hiatus occurring is illustrated in Figure 1a (Figure 4a of the original paper). This shows that as the gradient in anthropogenic forcing increases, the probability of a hiatus decade occurring decreases.

This study also investigates the probability of a hiatus occurring in two separate future scenarios as shown in Figure 1b (Figure 4b of the original paper). In the RCP4.5 scenario there is a low probability of a hiatus into the future with a recovery towards the 50% level as emissions begin to plateau towards 2100. Conversely in a high emission RCP8.5 scenario a hiatus becomes extremely unlikely after 2030.

A multiple linear regression approach is used to determine the effect of a volcano on SAT in the historical periods.

This response is then used to implement two hypothetical (b) Probability of a hiatus occuring in the future

historical (non−volcanic) historical (volcanic) future projections

0.9 Probability of hiatus decade

variability in the Pacific and its negative phase has been shown to be associated with the drawdown of heat into the subsurface ocean [England et al., 2014]. This study finds that hiatuses related to the IPO can be strengthened by the release of anthropogenic aerosols.

0.8

RCP4.5 RCP8.5 −2 RCP4.5 + volc (−3.3 W/m ) −2 RCP4.5 + volc (−1.5 W/m ) RCP8.5 + volc (−3.3 W/m−2) RCP8.5 + volc (−1.5 W/m−2)

0.7 0.6

probability = 50%

pro

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2

Gradient in anthropogenic forcing (W/m /Year)

2010

2030

2050 Year

2070

2090

From original paper Figure 4: a) Probability of hiatus occurring in 31 CMIP5 models (the percentage of models that have a hiatus decade at any given year) versus the decadal change in anthropogenic forcing. Results are shown for: non-volcanic historical (red), volcanic historical: including Krakatau, Santa Maria, Agung, Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions (note: El Chichon is included in this analysis to capture all outliers) (orange) and both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (green); b) Probability of a hiatus occurring in 31 CMIP5 models for the RCP4.5 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) scenarios. The effect of two eruptions with magnitudes equivalent to Santa Maria (dashed lines) and Krakatau (dotted lines) are superimposed at 2032 and 2087, see methods for details. A probability of greater than 0.65 or less than 0.36 means that the probability is significantly different from a random distribution at the 95% level.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 43

Article volcanos, of two different sizes in the RCP future scenarios.

The effect of both Santa Maria and Krakatau sized eruptions are added at both 2032 and 2087 in each scenario. The results are shown in Figure 1b. At 2030 in both scenarios the probability of a hiatus occurring is increased by both a medium and a large volcano. Interestingly at the end of the century in the RCP4.5 scenario with a medium or large volcanic eruption a hiatus is extremely likely, while in a RCP8.5 scenario even a large volcano is unlikely to cause a hiatus.

This paper has used the CMIP5 models to investigate historical causes of a hiatus period and illustrated the key effects of volcanic eruptions and the IPO. The occurrence of hiatuses are found to be highly depended on future emissions scenario, with hiatuses extremely unlikely to occur after 2030 in a high emissions scenario, with even a Krakatau sized volcano unlikely to cause a hiatus by the end of the century.

The orginal paper is: Maher, N., A. Sen Gupta, and M. H. England (2014), Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5978– 5986, doi: 10.1002/2014GL060527

References: Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009), Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08706, doi:10.1029/2009GL037810.

England, M. H., et al. (2014), Intensified Pacific Ocean wind-driven circulation during the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222–227.

Timmreck, C. (2012), Modeling the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.192.

Call for Associate Science Editors Do you enjoy talking to and corresponding with a wide range of atmospheric, oceanographic, land surface and earth system scientists? Do you have a keen interest in communicating science to a broader audience? Do you often read a science article and think to yourself “This could have been written / edited better”? Would you like to increase your understanding of the peer review process, from behind the looking glass?

If you answered “Yes indeed!” to any or all of these questions then you have the opportunity to engage in these activities as an Associate Science Editor for the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (BAMOS).

The position: proactively seek out and encourage interesting speakers and/or scientists in the AMOS sciences to submit their work to BAMOS and then coordinate the peer-review process.

Being an Associate Science Editor will give you first-hand experience of organising the review process and will also allow you to take a more active role in supporting the AMOS community.

The position is voluntary (as is also the case for similar editorial roles with other scientific journals) and ongoing for as long as you wish to remain in the role. There is currently no specification for the number of applicants and anyone working in the AMOS-related subjects is encouraged to apply (although we would like at least one oceanographer as BAMOS is currently lacking in oceanographical content).

You will work closely with and report to Willow Hallgren (the current Science Editor). Please contact Willow at whallgren@tpg.com.au with a copy of your CV if you are interested in undertaking one of these brand-new positions that will contribute significantly to the development of BAMOS. We look forward to hearing from you!

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 44

Workshop Report

Data requirements to address the WCRP Grand Challenge on weather and climate extremes Lisa Alexander Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales

Participants at the WCRP Extremes Grand Challenge Data Issues Workshop, Sydney 25–27 February 2015. Image credit: Alvin Stone.

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has laid down a set of six Grand Science Challenges that the climate research community is tasked with addressing over the coming years. These represent some of the most important yet challenging scientific questions that if answered would address current research gaps and ultimately help provide more useful “actionable information” for decision makers.

One of these Grand Challenges is the WCRP Grand Challenge on Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes (‘Extremes Grand Challenge’).

The Extremes Grand Challenge produced a White Paper (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/images/documents/ grand_challenges/GC_Extremes_v2.pdf) in 2014 that posed eight ‘Grand Science’ questions to help meet the challenge presented by WCRP. One of these questions, “How can we improve the collation, dissemination and quality of observations needed to assess extremes and what new observations do we need?”, was the main motivation for a workshop that was held at the University of New South Wales in Sydney from 25–27 February 2015. This invitation-only workshop brought together 33 climate data and extremes experts from 11 countries, including representation from several of the large global data centres; the National Climatic Data Center (USA), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (Germany) and Met Office Hadley Centre (UK).

Over the three day workshop, talks covered an overview of existing observed datasets that are commonly used for extremes analysis in addition to what new observations/ Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 45

indices would be needed to address the Extremes Grand Challenge. New international data initiatives were discussed with respect to how these could be better coordinated to avoid overlap and maximize research outcomes. Interconnections to model evaluation of extremes such as requirements for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) were also discussed, as were the requirements for the underpinning observations needed for detection and attribution (D&A) and attribution of climate extremes (ACE) analyses. Through break-out sessions we identified limitations and gaps in existing datasets, new observations that would be needed and how to make best use of observations for monitoring and model evaluation. On the final day of the workshop we were tasked with setting out a clear plan of ‘next steps’ and deliverables for the coming years which included amongst other things a guidance document on how datasets should/should not be used for extremes, a best practice guidance paper for gridding extremes datasets, and an intercomparison of existing extremes products.

Other highlights of the workshop included a “Student Bakeoff ” where each workshop participant got to vote at morning and afternoon teas (congratulations to Matt Lipson, Stefan Contractor for the delicious winning entries and Shirley Qin for excellent organisation) and an Extreme Trivia evening (see NSW branch news for more).

For more information on the Extremes Grand Challenge see: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/grand-challenges/gcextreme-events.

Snapshot

Storm over Melbourne 28 February 2015 Laura O’Brien

In this issue’s extended Snapshot, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science postdoc Laura O’Brien takes us through the storms on the last day of summer this year.

It was 7:55 pm on St Kilda beach. It had been a hot day (~33º C) with lots of people out and about on the beaches around Elwood and St Kilda. I was out for a run at the time but knew there was a storm coming so waited down on St Kilda beach at the end of my run.

As the sky darkened most people left the beach, however some stayed to watch the storm and there were many people still out walking. This picture was taken as the first of two rain bands approached (see the Bureau’s radar image opposite).

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 46

I stayed to watch as it moved in and the lightning kicked off around the bay. As soon as the second band hit I had to run home immediately. The winds picked up so much that the sand was being whipped up and the trees were swaying far too much for my liking. Most of the remaining people down on the beach made a quick exit.

Excepts from the Bureau’s monthly weather report (from: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/aus/mwraus-201502.pdf) explain the conditions on the day:

Snapshot

Top: Laura captured a lightning strike over the bay before making a quick exit.

Left: the Bureau’s rainfall radar shows the approaching storm.

“Severe storms developed in Melbourne and the eastern suburbs on the evening of 28 February. Power outages affected 37,000 premises across the region and the SES received around 1,700 calls. Winds gusting at up to 130 km/h swept across the city, bringing down trees and powerlines, smashing windows and taking roofs off houses...”

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“By the 28th, a developing cold front and a deepening low pressure system to the south of South Australia tracked eastwards and strengthened before crossing Victoria and Tasmania. Light rainfall was recorded across large parts of Victoria and Tasmania, with isolated areas east of Melbourne and in southwest Tasmania recording heavier falls.”

Meet a Member

Craig Macaulay Our April Meet a Member is a valuable communicator of the AMOS sciences. We caught up with him just before his retirement.

1. Where does this email find you?

Preparing to retire.

2. What do you do?

I provide communication support for scientists and students at the University of Tasmania’s Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS). I liaise with media, draft web content, and coordinate video interviews.

3. Why did you get into it?

Coming from a non-science media background, I have always been interested in science in the marine, atmospheric and polar fields.

4. What is the best thing about what you do?

The access I have to the many, many research projects and papers generated by scientists and students at IMAS. 5. What did you want to do when you were 10?

Can’t remember back that far...

6. How do you relax?

Walking in the Tasmanian bush, reading history and autobiographies, and playing golf.

7. What is your favourite holiday destination?

Tasmania!

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AMOS member Craig Macaulay.

Since leaving school, Craig has worked constantly with the media—in newspapers, radio and through public relations.

He began his career in science communication at the CSIRO: in the Oceanography division at first, then Marine Research, and then onto Marine and Atmospheric Research.

When asked what he thinks are some of the more challenging communication issues for the AMOS sciences, he answered, “A shrinking pool of science journalists, funding pressure on institutions impacting science communicators, building community understanding of environmental change from climate shifts, and a well-resourced denialist community.”

We wish you all the very best on your retirement Craig, and thank you for the valuable services you have provided over the years to the AMOS sciences.

Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin

12 March 1926 The summer of 1925–26 was a very hot one, by the standards of the day, through much of eastern and central Australia. It remains the hottest summer on record in parts of inland northern Queensland. Over Australia as a whole, it was the third-hottest for the period from 1910 to 1980, although there have been 14 hotter summers since. It was also a very dry summer in many parts of the continent, especially Victoria, South Australia and southern New South Wales. The summer of 1925–26 remains the driest on record for the first two states, and substantial parts of the Mallee had no rain at all (including Mildura, where a record 111-day dry spell ran from 24 November to 14 March). While average summer temperatures in Victoria were below average (thanks mainly to a very cool January), major bushfires broke out in mid-February in the Dandenong and Yarra Ranges and west Gippsland, claiming 31 lives and burning until early March.

Dry and hot conditions continued through most of eastern Australia for the first two weeks, especially in inland New South Wales and southern Queensland. Bourke started a run of 13 consecutive days above 35°C on 2 March, and Tibooburra a run of 6 consecutive days above 40°C on the 8th. The lack of rain led to water shortages in many places; mining operations were disrupted in Broken Hill with water having to be trucked in from Menindee, while Melbourne also suffered from water shortages. There were occasional dust storms when winds strengthened, one disrupting the Nimmitabel Show on the 10th, while a large bushfire burned in the Brindabella Ranges west of Canberra.

The heat was at its most widespread and significant from 12–14 March, as a small high west of Victoria moved

east and merged with a larger system over the Tasman Sea, producing an elongated north-south ridge over the east coast. This directed northerly winds over the eastern inland. March 13th saw the most significant heat, which reached its maximum over the northern inland of New South Wales. Bourke, Tibooburra, and Coonamble all reached 44.4°C, with 43.9°C at Moree and Brewarrina, and 43.3°C at Cobar; the first three were State March records at the time, and remain the highest recorded so late in March. Conditions cooled in western and central New South Wales the next day as a trough moved gradually eastwards, but remained very hot in the northeast (where Inverell set a March record of 37.8°C), as well as in southern Queensland where it reached 43.3°C at St. George. Longterm stations where March records were set included St. George, Inverell, Cobar, Bourke, Moree, Walgett (43.1°C), and Dubbo (40.3°C). The most significant heat remained inland with little impact on the major coastal cities, and was focused on northern New South Wales and southern border areas of Queensland, with no readings above 43°C north of St. George.

From the 15th onwards the heat retreated to central and northern Queensland. There was a dramatic change in conditions over the second half of the month, in which temperatures were well below average over most of the southeastern States, while a major rain event from 21–25 March meant that most of northern New South Wales had March monthly rainfall well above average, with records set in parts of the northeast. Substantial rain came to Victoria in April, but in South Australia it was merely the first stage in an extended very dry period, with 1925–29 being by far the State’s driest five years on record.

Synoptic chart for 12 March 1926 (time unknown).

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The Research Corner with Damien Irving

Plugging into the scientific computing discussion From the time we write our first literature review as a graduate or honours year student, we are taught the importance of plugging into the conversation around our research topic of interest. We subscribe to journal email alerts, set up automated searches on databases like Web of Science, join the departmental journal reading club and attend relevant sessions at conferences. If we want to get a job one day, we also figure out pretty quickly which email lists and job boards to keep an eye on. A discussion that people tend not to be so engaged with, however, is that around computational best practices. Modern weather and climate scientists spend a lot of time writing and debugging code, but discussions around the best tools and tricks for doing this are a little harder to find. As such, here’s my attempt at a consolidated list of the best places to tune into.

Online • Twitter is an absolute gold mine when it comes to quality discussions about computational best practice. Start by following accounts like @swcarpentry, @mozillascience, @victoriastodden, @openscience and of course @DrClimate and you’ll soon identify the other key people to follow.

• Nature has recently started a Toolbox section on its website, which features regular articles about scientific software, apps and online tools. See: http://www.nature. com/news/toolbox • The Mozilla Science Lab Forum hosts all sorts of discussions about open science and computational research. See: http://forum.mozillascience.org/ • Weather and climate bloggers tend to focus on their science or topics like climate advocacy (because let’s face it, those topics are much more interesting), but I’d certainly recommend Dr. Climate (naturally) and also Python for the Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences.

See: https://drclimate.wordpress.com/ and http://pyaos. johnny­lin.com/, respectively.

Offline • The two-day workshops hosted by Software Carpentry are the perfect place to get up-to-date with the latest tips and tricks. We’re hosting one alongside the upcoming AMOS conference in Brisbane (see: http:// damienirving.github.io/2015­07­13­amos/). If you can’t make it to that event check out the Software Carpentry website for upcoming workshops. If there isn’t one in your region, email them to tee one up for your home department/institution. If you enjoy the experience you can stay involved as a volunteer helper and/or instructor (as a number of AMOS scientists have done) and then you’ll always be a part of the computational conversation.

• Don’t tell the AMOS conference organising committee, but I’ve always found the scientific computing /data analysis streams at conferences like PyCon Australia or the Research Bazaar to be much more useful than regular academic conferences. This is because at academic conferences there’s only ever a handful of people working on similar research to my own, while at computing conferences there are many people doing similar programming tasks.

• Local data science meetups are really starting to grow in popularity. For instance, the Research Platforms department hosts a weekly “Hacky Hour” at a bar on campus at the University of Melbourne, a bunch of AMOS scientists have got together to form Data Science Hobart in Tasmania (see: https://datasciencehobart.wordpress. com/), and Rob Johnson has just started a Hacky Hour of his own at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne. If a data science meetup doesn’t exist in your area, why not get a bunch of colleagues together and start one up?

If you know of any other great online or offline discussions, please head over to my blog and let me know!

Calendar

2015 June 1–5 7th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO), Canberra, Australia 9–14 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, Chania, Crete, Greece.

15–17 International Symposium on Tropical Ocean and Climate, Qingdao, China Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 50

17–19 10th Antarctic Meteorological Observing, Modeling, and Forecasting Workshop (AMOMFW), Cambridge, United Kingdom 22 June–2 July 26th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Prague, Czech Republic.

25 London: Planning for Climate Change (Conference series), London, UK.

Calendar June 28–3 July Call for nominations to attend the 65th Meeting of the Nobel Laureates in Lindau

27–30 GREENHOUSE 2015: Atmosphere, oceans and ice, Hobart, Tasmania. Abstracts deadline: 6 July.

July

November

5–9 July Australian Marine Sciences Association Conference – ‘From Estuaries to Oceans’ – Geelong, Deakin University

17–19 International Conference on the “Water and Energy cycles in the Tropics” Institut d’Océanographie, Paris, France

15–17 AMOS National Conference, Brisbane.

19–21 Meteorological Society of New Zealand – Annual Conference. Forecasts: From minutes to decades, Wellington, NZ.

August 2–7 12th Annual Meeting - Asia Oceania Geosciences AOGS - Singapore 10-11 Understanding Processes for Extreme Precipitation, Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne. At this time we would like to invite anyone who would be interested in participating in the workshop to send an expression of interest with a prospective presentation title to Markus Donat (m.donat@unsw.edu.au) by 8th May.

September 7–10 3rd Conference on Modelling Hydrology, Climate and Land Surface Processes, Lillehammer, Norway

October 5–9 11th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Santiago, Chile 12–14 (tentative) 8th ACRE Workshop

29 November–4 December Biannual MODSIM2015 congress of the Modelling and Simulations Society of Australia and New Zealand, Gold Coast, Australia.

30 November–4 December International Symposium on the Indian Ocean - “Dynamics of the Indian Ocean: Perspective and Retrospective”, Goa, India.

December 14–18 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA

2016 January 10–14 AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA

February TBC AMOS National Conference 2016, Melbourne 21–26 AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA.

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Articles — Vol. 64 No. 4, December 2014 Louis. Gridded return values of McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index across New South Wales.

Dittus et al. An investigation of some unexpected frost day increases in southern Australia.

Cottrill and Kuleshov. An assessment of rainfall seasonal forecasting skill from the statistical model SCOPIC using four predictors.

Le Marshall et al. Improving tropospheric and stratospheric moisture analysis with hyperspectral infrared radiances.

Green. Gorwing season air temperature lapse rate in the Snowy Mountains.

Klekociuk et al. The Antarctic ozone hole during 2011.

Klekociuk et al. The Antarctic ozone hole during 2012.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 51

Regular features: Tihema. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (summer 2013–14): Warmer than average summer; neutral ENSO conditions.

Ganter. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (autumn 2014): Tropical Pacific experiences strong push toward El Niño.

Wu. Quarterly Numerical Weather Prediction Model Performance Summary—July to September 2014..

BAMOS Author Guidelines

For all submissions: The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (BAMOS) accepts short (<2500 words) contributions of original research work for peerreview and consideration in the “Science Articles” section.

Longer articles will be considered at the discretion of the Editor and Editor-in-Chief. Articles submitted to BAMOS should also be appropriate for the whole AMOS community (from weather enthusiasts to professional members) and should aim to be concise without using excessive scientific jargon.

Raymond, D.J., 1993. Chapter 2: Observational constraints on cumulus parameterizations. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Meteorological Monographs, 24 (46), 17–28, American Meteorological Society, Boston, USA.

For the peer-reviewed “Science Articles” section, authors should follow these guidelines:

•

1.

Articles should be submitted as a PDF or Word document (or similar) for peer-review and include all figures and tables either within the main text or consecutively at the end of the article.

2.

Articles should have a line spacing of 1.5 or more using a font size of 12. Articles should preferably be written using Times New Roman or Arial.

3.

Articles should be split into sections, with the heading for each section numbered consecutively and using a font size of 14. For example (these are title examples, headings are made at the authors’ discretion):

•

Trewin, B., 2001, Extreme temperature events in Australia.

PhD Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia.

7.

We recommend that the author(s) make five suggestions for referees to undertake the peer-review.

Also, we ask for a list of five potential referees whom the author does not want as reviewers, due to conflicts of interest, or past close association..

8.

Once peer-review has been completed, a final version of the document should be sent to the editor either in Word format or as plain text. The document should also include figure and table captions and the references but no figures. Figure files should be sent separately (they may be in any format and the editor will confer with the author(s) on the resolution and formatting).

9.

Galley-proofs will be sent to the author(s) for final checking before publication.

2. Method 3. Results 4.

An abstract is required and should not be more than 150 words in length.

5.

Acknowledgements to be included after the final work section and before the references.

6.

References should follow these example formats:

•

Journal Articles:

Jung, T., Ferranti, L. and Tompkins, A.M., 2006, Response to the summer of 2003 Mediterranean SST anomalies over Europe and Africa, Journal of Climate, 19, 5439–5454.

•

Books:

Holton, J.R., 2004, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Academic Press, New York. 535 pp.

•

Book chapter:

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Web sites:

Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012, Bushfire history - Major bushfires in Victoria, www.dse. vic.gov.au/fire-and-other-emergencies/major-bushfires-invictoria/

1. Introduction

4. Conclusions

Theses:

BAMOS also accepts a wide range of non-peer-reviewed work, for example news items, charts from the past, conference reports, book reviews, biographical articles and meet a member. AMOS members are therefore encouraged to submit articles that would be of general interest to the AMOS community without necessarily requiring peer review. File formats should follow those given above; a word or plain text document should be submitted (which includes any figure captions and tables) along with any figure files given separately.

All articles should be either posted or emailed to the editor with any questions on the formatting also directed to the editor (see the inside back cover of this issue for contact details).

2015 AMOS Council Executive

President Vice-President Secretary Treasurer Past President

Todd Lane Mary Voice Damien Irving Angela Maharaj Blair Trewin

Ordinary Members Ailie Gallant Andrew Klekociuk Adam Morgan Neville Nicholls Andy Pitman Ian Watterson

03-9905 3216 03 6232 3382 03-9905 4424 03-9902 0111 02-9385 9766 03-9239 4544

AMOS Executive Officer Jeanette Dargaville GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001 (attn: AMOS admin officer) Phone 0404 471 143 E-mail: admin@amos.org.au

03-8344 6516 04-1994 9952 03-8344 6911 02-9385 0593 03-9669 4623

Sub-Committee Convenors Public Relations Awards 2015 Conference Education

Centre Chairs ACT Adelaide Brisbane Darwin Hobart Melbourne NSW Perth

Vacant Mark Williams Andrew Weibe Melissa Lyne Angela Maharaj

0419 519 440 04- 5046 0676 0415-514-328 02-9385-0593

Bob Cechet Darren Ray Andrew Wiebe Ian Shepherd Andrew Marshall Andrew King Fiona Johnson Merv Lynch

02-6268 8883 08-8366 2664 04-5046 0676 08-8920 3821 03-6232 5184 TBA 02-9385 9769 08-9266 7540

Representatives

AMOJ Science & Technology Australia

David Karoly

03 8344 4698

Steven Phipps

02-9385 8957

AMOS is represented on the relevant Australian Academy of Science committees.

2015 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576

Editor

Melissa Lyne Email: melissa@amos.org.au

Science Editor

Willow Hallgren Email: whallgren@tpg.com.au

Editor-in-chief

Duncan Ackerley Email: duncan.ackerley@monash.edu

Assistant Editors

Diana Greenslade, Blair Trewin and Linden Ashcroft.

Oceanography Representative Christopher Bull

Regional Sub-editors Michael Hewson (Brisbane) Darren Ray (Adelaide) Shannon Mason (Melbourne) Fiona Johnson (NSW) Bob Cechet (ACT) Craig Macaulay (TAS) Jenny Hopwood (WA)

Contributors Blair Trewin Damien Irving

Advertising Manager

Please contact the Executive Officer.

Publisher

AMOS, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia

Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than 01 June 2015. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors. The April issue will focus on communities based around the AMOS sciences.

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology.

AMOS Website: www.amos.org.au