Extrusion Sector Group Meeting Presentations 16-11-23

ALFED Extrusions Section Better prospects in 2025

Joseph Cherrez Senior Analyst, CRU

16 November 2023

ALFED Extrusions Presentation

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Although reasonable care and diligence has been used in the preparation of this presentation, we do not guarantee the accuracy of any data, assumptions, forecasts or other forward-looking statements. We accept no liability to third parties, howsoever arising.

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THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL TO CRU

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ALFED Extrusions Presentation

In terms of GDP, 2023 is stronger than expected but 2024 may be weaker IP outlook remains weaker than GDP

US recession delayed

% change IP growth

% change GDP growth

6

6

5 5 4

4

3

3

2

1 2 0 1

-1

0

-2 2023

2024 World

China

US

2025-27 Europe

DATA: Oxford Economics, CRU. NOTE: World GDP and IP growth are weighted by market exchange rates.

THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL TO CRU

2023

2024 World

China

US

2025-27 Europe

3

ALFED Extrusions Presentation

A more meaningful recovery will likely only come in 2025 1. We now expect a flat 2024 in Europe and a recovery thereafter

2. Transport and electrical will continue to drive growth.

22-23 growth

23-24 growth

24-25 growth

y/y growth 25%

Building (48%)

20%

15%

Transport (24%)

10% 5% Machining (13%) 0% -5% Electrical (6%) -10% -15%

Total -20% 2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

DATA: CRU. THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL TO CRU

5% 10% 15% 20%

4

ALFED Extrusions Presentation

Turkish shipments have grown dramatically to Europe, ME and NA 250,000

YTD extrusion exports (Jan-Aug), tonnes

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 Europe

ME

FSU 2018

DATA: CRU, S&P Global.

THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL TO CRU

Africa 2019

2020

2021

NA 2022

Latam

Asia

2023

5

ALFED Extrusions Presentation

After coming off dramatically the German billet premium can gradually recover Cost pressures and construction stabilization can drive a recovery 1800 $/tonne

The sharp fall in the German billet premium following its post-Covid boom has left it trading at about $400/t.

1600 1400

We expect the price to average $421/t in the current quarter (Q4 2023).

1200 1000

Without a further deterioration in the European construction sector, which we do not expect and with the prospects of rate cuts during 2024 we believe the billet premium can gradually recover from Q1 2024.

800 600 400 200

DATA: CRU, S&P Global.

THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL TO CRU

Q4 2025

Q3 2025

Q2 2025

Q1 2025

Q4 2024

Q3 2024

Q2 2024

Q1 2024

Q4 2023

Q3 2023

Q2 2023

Q1 2023

Q4 2022

Q3 2022

Q2 2022

Q1 2022

Q4 2021

Q3 2021

Q2 2021

Q1 2021

Q4 2020

Q3 2020

Q2 2020

Q1 2020

Q4 2019

Q3 2019

Q2 2019

Q1 2019

Q4 2018

Q3 2018

Q2 2018

Q1 2018

0

In addition, the unusually weak billet to ingot spread is discouraging the production of billet and further tightening the market.

6

ALFED Extrusions Presentation

Where is Russian primary metal going?

Where will Russian primary metal go in 2023? ( 2023 number CRU estimate for full year)

IP outlook remains weaker than GDP

US recession delayed 000s tonnes

% change IP growth

% change GDP growth 2021

2022

2023

6

6 1400

5 China – number 1 destination 5 1200 4

1000 4

3

800 3

2

600 2

1

400

0

1 200

-1

0

-2 0

2023 EU+UK+Other Europe World

2024 NE Asia China US

DATA: S&P Global, Chinese customs.

THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL TO CRU

Turkey Europe

2025-27

China

USA

2023 Mexico World

2024 2025-27 Other Asia Other countries China US Europe

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Thank you for your attention

Joseph Cherrez T: +44 207 903 2021 E: joseph.cherrez@crugroup.com

CRU International Limited London | Sydney | Tokyo | Beijing | Shanghai | Singapore | Mumbai | New York | Pittsburgh | Sao Paulo | Santiago Registered in England No.940750. Registered office: Charles House, 108-110 Finchley Road, London NW3 5JJ

8

EU CBAM 101

Everything you need to know about the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

When does the CBAM come into effect?

1

A transitional period will run from 1 October 2023. The CBAM will come into full effect on 1 January 2026, with financial adjustment in the form of certificate purchases.

How will the CBAM work?

2

From 2023-2025 (transitional period) Importers will have to follow the CBAM reporting requirements (see Section 3 overleaf). There will be no financial adjustments (no carbon tax to pay) during this period. Importers will need to register as authorized CBAM declarants, before importing relevant goods.

Penalties (set by Member States) will apply if reporting obligations aren’t fulfilled.

An individual representative of the business must do the following:

1

Products covered: Electric energy production

Apply to be an authorized CBAM declarant

An authorized CBAM declarant is a person registered to import goods covered by the CBAM into the EU, and to fulfill CBAM’s reporting and certificate-purchase obligations. An authorized declarant can represent more than one Importer. You register in the EU Member State in which you're established, or appoint an indirect customs representative.

2

Fulfill the CBAM’s reporting requirement (See overleaf)

3

Purchase CBAM certificates

Cement

Aluminum From 2026

Fertilizers

One certificate must be purchased per tonne of direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production of the goods (see Section 4 overleaf).

The price of CBAM certificates will be the average price of EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) allowances of the previous week, announced weekly.

Iron

The CBAM will only apply to the proportion of emissions that doesn’t benefit from EU ETS free allowances, which will be phased out from 2026-2034.

Steel

Hydrogen* *in certain cases. Certain precursors and other downstream products like screws and bolts will also be included; this document will be updated with future announcements.

If your business imports any of these goods into the EU (from outside the EU), then the CBAM will apply to you.

Document last updated: 3 September 2023

Certificates can be purchased any time, and will be stored in the authorized declarant’s registered CBAM certificate account.

At the end of every quarter, authorized declarants will need to ensure that their account contains certificates covering at least 80% of the emissions of goods imported in the calendar year so far.

Businesses will be able to purchase excess certificates (valid for two years) and resell a limited number in an annual reconciliation process. During this reconciliation process, businesses will surrender certificates equivalent to the total reported emissions of their imports over the previous year (purchasing more if they don’t have enough). A penalty matching ETS penalties (EUR 100 per tCO2e at the time of writing) will be applied if importers don’t surrender the required certificates.

What are the CBAM reporting requirements?

3

From 1 October 2023 At the end of each quarter, authorized declarants will have to submit a CBAM report to the European Commission containing information about imported goods and their emissions for the last quarter (no later than one month after the quarter ends). This must include: 1. Data identifying the authorized CBAM declarant: (a) name; (b) CBAM account number; 2. Data on imported goods: (a) type and quantity of each type of goods (megawatt hours for electricity and in tonnes for other goods) per production installation; (b) country of origin and production facility; (c) embedded emissions (direct and indirect where applicable, expressed in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per tonne of good or per megawatt-hour of electricity) 3. Information about carbon prices paid abroad (if importing from a jurisdiction with comparable carbon prices to the EU ETS). From 2026, this will enable an importer to claim a reduction in their surrendered CBAM certificates.

Actions to take now Checklist for importers: Track every import that includes CBAM-covered products (customs officials will also do this) ASAP from 1 October 2023 Ask your suppliers (producers/installations) for the emissions data in line with the CBAM methodology Suppliers have until January 2024 to provide importers with this data Report quarterly 31 Jan 2024 for first report 30 April 2024 for second report The first two reports can be updated until 31 July 2024 (if importers get better data)

Checklist for installations (producers): Develop a monitoring methodology Start real-time monitoring ASAP from 1 October 2023 Default monitoring period = 12 months

Need help developing a monitoring methodology or collecting supplier data?

Get in touch

Use the “calculation-based” or “measurement based” approach Estimate as much of 2023 emissions as possible Include both direct and indirect emissions during transition period Verification is voluntary but recommended during transitional period Communicate emissions to customers ASAP after 1 January 2024 ASAP after each quarter going forward Annually once annual data is available

Which embedded emissions and gases are covered?

Gases covered: Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs) From 2023, importers have to report: Direct emissions (released in the production of the goods at the production facilities) Indirect emissions (from the production of electricity used in the production of goods)

4 Indirect emissions from aluminum, steel and hydrogen will initially be excluded from the financial mechanism (the purchase of certificates from 2026). However the Commissions commits to including them 'as soon as possible' and strongly indicates that additional goods will eventually be included.

How do I find or calculate emissions data?

When reporting embedded emissions, actual emissions data or default values can be used: Actual primary data:

Default values:

This is primary emissions data.

Typically, the operator of the production installation will provide this.

This means using secondary data, which the Commission will provide, to make estimated calculations of the goods’ embedded emissions (using the methodology in Annex IV).

The Commission indicates that it will encourage, or in some way support, the creation of a central database for operators in third countries to provide importers with verified emissions data.

Calculations must follow the methodology in Annex IV of the CBAM regulations and from 1 January 2026 must be verified:

Find out how much the CBAM could cost you on your imports.

Verification must happen by a verifier who's accredited in accordance with the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/206 and in accordance with the principles set out in Annex VI.

5

These default values will reflect average emissions intensities of each exporting country and for each good — but with a mark-up, to ensure the CBAM’s environmental integrity. The size of this mark-up will be informed by the data collected during the transitional period. Where reliable average data isn’t available, the Commission will use the average emissions intensity of the worstperforming EU ETS installations for that type of good.

Default values may be higher than actual emissions, and importers will have to pay that price.

Get your estimate Will more products be covered?

It’s extremely likely that the CBAM will eventually cover more goods at high risk of carbon leakage, such as petroleum, organic chemicals, coal, and iron ores.

Are there any exemptions to the CBAM?

6

7

The CBAM won’t cover imports from Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein or Switzerland, because these countries adopt, or are linked to, the EU ETS. Electricity markets integrated with EU internal markets through market coupling will also be exempt.

Sources: Deal reached on new carbon leakage instrument to raise global climate ambition The European Commission’s proposals for a European Green Deal Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (10 May 2023) European Council Press Release, ‘Council agrees on the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)’ (15 March 2022) Commission adopts detailed reporting rules for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s transitional phase (17 August 2023)

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How we will support you on CBAM Complete CBAM declaration report with supplier data filled in, for reporting period

Identify & track which imports fall under CBAM

Importer Send data collection forms to your suppliers & track which ones have submitted their data

Compare CBAM costs of current & potential suppliers to better inform purchasing decision making

Complete your data collection and fill in your CBAM report over the first year

Supplier Get support to develop a monitoring methodology

Share PCFs in line with the GHG Protocol’s product standard to all of your international clients

CarbonChain platform

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Powering your CBAM Reporting How CarbonChain can help you comply with CBAM reporting requirements

CBAM Goods & Installation Tracker

CBAM Report Automation

Engaging with suppliers

● CarbonChain platform identifies and tracks CBAM goods traded, pre-populating with default values; ● Installation-level tracker provides insights into availability of primary supplier data and engagement status; ● Customers can add supplier contact information to trigger automatic requests for primary data provision.

● CarbonChain platform automatically aggregates all of your underlying installation-level Summary Communication sheets (populating with default values in lieu of primary data) into a submission-ready report; ● Review, edit and version-control your CBAM reports via the CarbonChain platform.

● Performing a guidance webinar on CBAM implementation per installation and sharing training materials; ● *Supporting the development of relevant monitoring methodology documentation at the installation, in line with EU CBAM requirements; ● *Supporting completion of the CBAM 4 communication template for sharing of primary data with customers.

Understand your CBAM preparedness

Ensuring timely submission to EU

Educate and empower your suppliers

* If suppliers require CarbonChain solutions for carbon accounting, they will need to structure their own commercial agreements with CarbonChain directly. CarbonChain would be the recommended supplier for their carbon accounting needs.

© CarbonChain 2023

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limit financial exposure to new regulations

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