MARKET VIEW | OFFICE | SOUTH FLORIDA MIAMI-DADE | BROWARD | PALM BEACH
Q2 2018
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | APARTMENT | Q1 2018
SOFTENING DEMAND IN MIAMI-
MARKET TRENDS
DADE WITH LARGE AMOUNTS
Q2 2018 OFFICE REPORT
OF NEW OFFICE SPACE IN DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Miami office market continues to benefit from steady demand via strong growth in officeusing employment. Specifically, job growth in the Financial Activities and Professional and Business Services sectors outpaced the national average in 2017. Due to years of limited development and strong demand, vacancies have remained near cyclical lows. Developers were active in 2017, delivering almost 750,000 SF of new office space. Even with the uptick in development, vacancies remain flat, leaving Miami in a good spot to tackle another wave of deliveries set to hit the market in the next few years. Due to strong fundamentals this cycle, rent growth reached almost 8% in early 2016 but has since declined, mirroring a nationwide trend. Sales volume has dipped off recently after peaking to almost $2.2 billion in 2016, but it is still in line with the historical average.
Q2 2018
12 MONTH CHANGE
FORECAST
VACANCY
8.65%
h
h
NET ABSORPTION SF
-8,636
i
h
2,203,784
h
i
322,553
h
h
GROSS LEASE RATE
35.67
h
h
CAP RATE
5.52%
i
g
205
i
h
h
g
CONSTRUCTION SF
COMPLETIONS SF
$/SF
$ SALES VOLUME
541.25M
RELATIVE TO PRIOR PERIOD | SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 1 YR CHANGE
Q2 2018
CHANGE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
4.5%
- 13.4%
POPULATION GROWTH
2,774,110
+ 1.20%
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
48,476
+ 3.88%
LABOR FORCE
1,188,800
+ 1.39%
CHANGE AS PER YEAR-TO-DATE | SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR STATISTICS
OUTLOOK Miami Dade’s economy is growing at a high rate with record low unemployment figures of 4.5% and 1.4% year over year labor force increase which should positively impact the office market. Moreover the tax reform will further fuel the economy, which will benefit Miami Dade’s office market. However the 2.2 million SF currently under development exceed current demand and will likely yield to increased vacancies in the near term.
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | OFFICE | Q2 2018 2
MARKET ACTIVITY
COMPLETIONS, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY TRENDS COMPLETIONS
Office construction has returned in force to the Miami metro. The supply pipeline was relatively empty leading up to 2016, when over 500,000 SF delivered, and that momentum has since been maintained. About 800,000 SF of new office space came on line metrowide in 2017, and over a million SF are expected to deliver by the end of 2018. Two MiamiCentral and Three MiamiCentral, the office phases of the mixed-use development centered on the future All Aboard Florida passenger rail station, are adding more than 300,000 SF of office space to the Downtown Miami Submarket. And several corporate office and medical office buildings completed in Aventura and Coral Gables in the first half of 2018. Co-working options – offered by shared office space providers such as WeWork, Axis and Quest – are on the rise in Miami. The Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA) reports at least 30 co-working spaces have popped up in downtown Miami alone and have attracted a number of large corporations as tenants. Twitter, Spotify, TripAdvisor, Microsoft and Wix have all taken shared office space there in the last few years.
ABSORPTION
VACANCY
SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
500,000
9.40% 9.20%
400,000
9.00% 300,000
8.80%
200,000
8.60%
100,000
8.40% 8.20%
-
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
(100,000)
8.00% 7.80%
(200,000)
7.60%
AVERAGE ASKING RENTS TRENDS CLASS A
CLASS B
OVERALL
SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00
Wynwood has emerged as a hotspot for millennials and those who may identify as creatives, urbanities, foodies or entrepreneurs. As a result, the neighborhood’s construction pipeline has ramped up, with many more projects in the proposal pipeline. A total of three buildings under construction in Wynwood make up 85% of the current inventory under construction in the entirety of what is considered the Downtown Office submarket. All three developments are mixeduse projects in that they also incorporate a retail component. The office spaces seem to appeal to co-working companies, as at least two have already pre-leased space there.
5.00 0.00
Q1 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
PRICE TRENDS CAP RATE
$/SF
$ VOLUME
SOURCE: REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS
852 M
400
9.00%
792 M
783 M
8.00%
350
7.00%
300
541 M
250
449 M 200
Due to surging land costs, ground-up opportunities are pricey, and investments in existing buildings have become more common in Miami. After seven consecutive years of sales volume increase, total sales volume dropped off in 2017.The largest trade in 2018 was the sale of the Sabadell Financial Center in June. The 500,000-SF, Class A office tower sold to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co for $248.5 million (475/SF), and the sale generated a 4.8% cap rate.
Q2 2017
5.00%
356 M
354 M
4.00%
150
266 M
250 M
200 M
100
3.00%
244 M
2.00%
102 M
50 -
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
6.00%
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
1.00%
Q2 2018
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | OFFICE | Q2 2018
0.00%
3
OFFICE STATISTICS SUBMARKET
TYPE
INVENTORY
VAC. (%)
YTD NET ABS.
SF
YTD DELIV.
SF
UNDER CONSTR.
SF
EFF. RENTS/SF YTD VOLUME $
CAP RATE %
$/SF
SF
Aventura
Total
2,145,790
12.63%
118,583
229,168
244,544
45.71
18.67 M
-
378.94
A
1,117,692
12.11%
44,958
74,336
204,544
47.83
5.17 M
-
284.15
B
901,650
14.39%
76,065
154,832
40,000
43.07
13.50 M
-
568.52
Biscayne Corridor Total
2,880,557
12.45%
(30,368)
-
40,000
34.45
39.55 M
-
503.17
A
699,000
21.85%
-
-
40,000
35.00
-
-
-
B
1,121,765
9.55%
(24,542)
-
-
39.45
17.51 M
-
389.84
Brickell
Total
9,599,464
9.74%
(23,150)
-
100,000
44.07
365.57 M
4.80
502.94
A
5,569,098
11.42%
(25,424)
-
100,000
49.68
303.12 M
4.80
449.66
B
3,707,777
7.98%
2,274
-
-
34.36
33.00 M
-
576.77
Coconut Grove
Total
2,263,938
10.13%
(37,930)
-
225,055
40.73
4.40 M
-
566.03
A
695,770
20.99%
(12,936)
-
225,055
42.10
-
-
-
B
1,229,005
6.13%
(19,739)
-
-
35.96
2.00 M
-
656.81
Coral Gables
Total
11,127,292
8.16%
(10,185)
132,381
387,667
39.68
58.04 M
-
519.44
A
4,974,229
11.35%
(25,137)
132,381
387,667
42.68
11.29 M
-
441.84
B
4,227,787
7.21%
22,315
-
-
35.77
10.61 M
-
637.08
Coral Way
Total
2,365,841
3.73%
(33,763)
-
62,017
30.86
13.73 M
-
338.38
A
84,248
3.68%
(3,100)
-
41,117
32.00
-
-
-
B
1,161,284
4.59%
(20,576)
-
20,900
32.13
4.20 M
-
156.41
Downtown Miami
Total
12,152,803
16.91%
56,885
-
190,583
39.06
167.89 M
4.50
384.12
A
5,362,165
20.80%
72,802
-
190,583
45.27
127.00 M
-
282.80
B
5,555,315
14.21%
(10,538)
-
-
31.13
21.74 M
4.50
497.44
Kendall
Total
435,614
0.22%
1,216
-
-
23.50
-
-
-
A
-
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B
173,009
0.00%
1,216
-
-
23.50
-
-
-
Medley/Hialeah
Total
11,706,932
5.87%
59,877
35,340
-
31.09
104.24 M
6.37
233.21
A
1,790,623
11.46%
48,391
-
-
37.56
5.48 M
-
165.29
B
6,440,433
6.52%
8,545
35,340
-
28.87
88.29 M
6.37
184.22
Miami
Total
4,337,399
2.70%
(4,479)
-
8,000
26.59
25.96 M
7.10
159.59
A
793,962
1.88%
(6,704)
-
-
26.73
-
-
-
B
1,866,398
2.88%
(88)
-
8,000
26.00
21.65 M
7.10
63.66
Miami Airport
Total
7,253,410
3.68%
2,379
-
264,873
37.03
76.76 M
6.50
500.62
A
1,185,197
4.71%
(1,635)
-
145,486
51.36
-
-
-
B
2,819,059
3.73%
(11,402)
-
119,387
35.51
10.20 M
-
365.19
Miami Beach
Total
19,354,686
7.45%
44,663
-
331,930
30.35
245.41 M
6.06
182.07
A
5,855,407
11.17%
(49,399)
-
312,407
34.32
98.00 M
-
279.43
B
10,646,940
6.64%
80,206
-
19,523
27.05
101.59 M
6.06
168.64
Miami Lakes
Total
4,789,150
6.84%
(39,396)
-
-
45.85
64.42 M
5.88
751.06
A
1,025,945
7.23%
11,767
-
-
51.48
38.83 M
5.88
485.55
B
2,657,531
8.05%
(51,296)
-
-
43.33
16.76 M
-
376.03
Miami Dade Central Total
3,558,099
14.34%
57,545
-
89,462
22.29
7.95 M
7.25
201.50
A
417,048
21.56%
(8,677)
-
-
25.79
1.13 M
-
188.33
B
2,715,770
14.25%
60,318
-
89,462
22.34
4.93 M
7.25
215.52
Northeast Dade
Total
6,582,118
10.66%
(247,511)
-
235,222
29.32
10.54 M
-
154.42
A
273,897
4.19%
14,211
-
235,222
51.29
-
-
-
B
2,756,889
20.48%
(261,599)
-
-
25.52
4.12 M
-
175.31
Outlying Miami-Dade
Total
182,082
0.00%
-
-
-
-
0.41 M
-
A
-
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B
164,443
0.00%
-
-
-
-
0.41 M
-
7.72
South Dade
Total
2,442,955
6.84%
8,127
-
18,480
23.08
12.37 M
-
259.18
A
-
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B
1,486,275
9.55%
(523)
-
18,480
24.33
10.65 M
-
774.92
West Miami
Total
1,834,386
1.07%
(6,331)
-
5,951
26.63
7.77 M
-
283.32
A
46,118
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B
602,283
1.03%
(1,809)
-
5,951
24.86
4.68 M
-
241.23
Total
105,012,516
8.65%
(83,838)
396,889
2,203,784
35.67
1223.68 M
5.46
393.24
A
29,890,399
12.91%
59,117
206,717
1,882,081
42.30
590.02 M
4.92
383.09
B
50,233,613
8.67%
(151,173)
190,172
321,703
30.51
365.81 M
6.15
298.08
Source: CoStar Property® ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | OFFICE | Q2 2018
7.72
SIGNIFICANT LEASE TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY ADDRESS
TENANT NAME
SIZE
LEASE TYPE
LEASE RATE
SUBMARKET
152 NW 168th St
N/A
26,200
Direct
$30.00 MG
Northeast Dade
161 NW 6th St
Viacom
24,009
Direct
$29.50 NNN
Downtown Miami
201 S Biscayne Blvd
Duane Morris
23,128
Direct
$60.00
Downtown Miami
777 Brickell Ave
N/A
20,061
Direct
$45.00 FS
Brickell
600 Brickell Ave
N/A
16,000
Direct
$65.00 FS
Brickell
SIGNIFICANT SALES TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY
BUYERS NAME
SIZE
SALE PRICE $
$/SF
SUBMARKET
Sabadell Financial Center
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P.
64,617
248,500,000
3,846
Brickell
SunTrust International Center
PCCP LLC
23,206
127,000,000
5,473
Downtown Miami
Northern Trust Bank building
Cardone Real Estate Acquisitions LLC
4,800
13,500,000
2,813
Aventura
Multi-Property Sale
Lopez Levi Lowenstein Glinsky
24,422
13,234,006
542
Coral Gables
The White Building
Mana Wynwood
26,853
12,900,000
480
Downtown Miami
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE PROPERTY ADDRESS
COMPLETION
SIZE
DEVELOPER
SUBMARKET
The Plaza Coral Gables
Q2 2020
289,998
Agave Holdings
Coral Gables
The Gateway at Wynwood
Q4 2020
250,000
Rose & Berg Realty
Downtown
Future Burger King HQ
Q4 2018
150,000
The Hogan Group
Miami Airport
Doral Dolphin Professional
Q2 2019
106,000
Procacci Development
Miami Airport
Ivory 214
Q3 2018
104,544
Shalev Dev Group
Aventura
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | APARTMENT | Q4 2017
SOFTENING DEMAND IN BROWARD’S
MARKET TRENDS
OFFICE MARKET WITH MODERATE
Q2 2018 OFFICE REPORT
SUPPLY IN PIPELINE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Fort Lauderdale recovery continues. Early on, employment growth was supported by gains in the low-wage sectors, but recent growth in white-collar jobs should continue to drive office demand for the next few years. Vacancy, at about 9%, is on par with rates in Miami and Palm Beach, but landlords have been able to maintain much stronger rent growth here. Part of the reason fundamentals have been so sound is the relative lack of building. Since 2010, metro deliveries have amounted to less than 15% of the historical annual average. These conditions have enabled significant price appreciation and sales volume. But activity cooled off considerably in 2017, when sales volume totaled about half that of 2016.
12 MONTH CHANGE
FORECAST
8.87%
h
i
NET ABSORPTION SF
-71,310
i
h
CONSTRUCTION SF
917,699
h
i
21,413
i
h
GROSS LEASE RATE
28.30
h
h
CAP RATE
7.32%
h
i
140
i
h
137.10M
h
i
Q2 2018 VACANCY
COMPLETIONS SF
$/SF
$ SALES VOLUME
RELATIVE TO PRIOR PERIOD | SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 1 YR CHANGE
Q2 2018
CHANGE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3.5%
- 7.9%
POPULATION GROWTH
1,968,270
+ 1.67%
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
57,890
+ 3.91%
LABOR FORCE
848,880
+ 1.26%
CHANGE AS PER YEAR-TO-DATE | SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR STATISTICS
OUTLOOK Market fundamentals remain positive for Broward’s office market. Vacancy rates are near a cycle low and rent growth is still strong. Additionally, a lack of supply has generated greater competition for space, and landlords have been able to negotiate higher rents as a result. Even with significant growth, rents should remain below the national average in the near term. Rents are unlikely to surpass rates in neighboring Miami, keeping Fort Lauderdale viable as a less-expensive alternative.
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | BROWARD | OFFICE | Q2 2018
MARKET ACTIVITY
COMPLETIONS, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY TRENDS COMPLETIONS
Rents remain strong, with vacancy near a cycle low. While growth has decelerated slightly since last year, it is still strong, at about 5.6% as of mid2018. Additionally, a lack of supply has generated greater competition for space, and landlords have been able to negotiate higher rents as a result. Even with significant growth, rents should remain below the national average in the near term. Rents are unlikely to surpass rates in neighboring Miami, keeping Fort Lauderdale viable as a less-expensive alternative. Leasing has picked up, and most large leases signed in the last two years have been for spaces in Sawgrass and Plantation. One of the past year’s largest deals was for Centerfield, a sales and marketing company that signed a five-year lease for four floors of the Jacaranda Park of Commerce in Plantation. In another notable signing, Sheridan Healthcare took more than 85,000 SF in a recently renovated building in Plantation. Downtown Fort Lauderdale is also seeing stronger leasing activity, and is beginning to attract tenants from outside the state, as evidenced by the recent lease of about 60,000 SF by electronics company Kemet, who relocated their headquarters from Greenville, SC to the 1 E Broward building.
ABSORPTION
Rents remain strong, with vacancy near a cycle low. While growth has decelerated slightly since last year, it is still strong, at about 5.6% as of mid2018. Additionally, a lack of supply has generated greater competition for space, and landlords have been able to negotiate higher rents as a result.
SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
400,000
12.00%
300,000
10.00%
200,000 100,000
8.00%
-
Q1 2017
(100,000)
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
(200,000)
6.00% 4.00%
(300,000)
2.00%
(400,000) (500,000)
0.00%
AVERAGE ASKING RENTS TRENDS CLASS A
CLASS B
OVERALL
SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00
Q1 2017
Construction is finally ramping up in Fort Lauderdale. Over 400,000 SF of space is being built and more than 200,000 SF is projected to deliver by mid-2018. In regard to other South Florida metros, Fort Lauderdale has delivered about as much net office space as Miami over the last four years, but will be topped by Miami in 2018. Fort Lauderdale has also experienced almost three times as much construction as Palm Beach over that period.
VACANCY
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
PRICE TRENDS CAP RATE
$/SF
$ VOLUME
300
SOURCE: REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS
9.00%
443 M
8.00% 250 7.00%
353 M 200
270 M
264 M
266 M
150
6.00%
285 M 224 M
208 M
5.00%
225 M
4.00%
100
132 M
143 M
137 M
3.00% 2.00%
50 1.00% -
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | BROWARD | OFFICE | Q2 2018
0.00%
OFFICE STATISTICS SUBMARKET
TYPE
INVENTORY
VAC. (%)
SF
YTD NET ABS. YTD DELIV. SF
UNDER CONSTR.
SF
SF
EFF. RENTS/SF
YTD VOLUME $
CAP RATE %
Commercial Blvd
Total
1,429,540
12.73%
8,976
-
-
21.46
0.66 M
-
A
233,266
7.32%
31,630
-
-
24.71
0.23 M
-
B
631,507
22.34%
(12,473)
-
-
21.16
0.26 M
-
Cypress Creek
Total
7,959,850
12.69%
(27,071)
-
81,709
24.97
53.12 M
-
A
2,433,730
15.40%
27,126
-
81,709
28.02
-
-
B
4,339,175
13.04%
(59,054)
-
-
22.94
42.77 M
-
Downtown Fort Lauderdale Total
9,182,955
9.67%
(140,396)
-
127,920
39.11
191.02 M
5.55
A
4,606,182
14.91%
(41,110)
-
95,532
41.60
119.33 M
-
B
2,169,831
4.36%
(19,137)
-
32,388
31.44
46.15 M
4.90
Fort Lauderdale
Total
10,968,573
8.90%
(24,809)
8,000
160,000
24.47
75.61 M
6.23
A
959,668
14.50%
9,620
-
-
29.12
-
-
B
5,161,833
12.69%
(62,157)
8,000
160,000
24.73
49.06 M
6.07
Hallandale
Total
1,622,782
7.98%
(16,526)
27,744
-
29.22
3.16 M
-
A
27,744
40.17%
16,598
27,744
-
38.00
-
-
B
676,478
9.27%
(35,735)
-
-
28.16
0.69 M
-
Hollywood
Total
6,184,368
4.80%
34,443
-
6,800
28.20
23.26 M
6.96
A
507,144
12.94%
10,383
-
-
33.32
-
-
B
2,787,234
5.19%
21,584
-
6,800
28.89
2.30 M
-
NW Broward/Coral Springs Total
5,122,391
8.80%
20,807
13,413
143,360
25.31
55.28 M
6.73
A
914,819
14.49%
(14,227)
-
-
27.85
11.54 M
-
B
2,765,411
10.11%
4,004
13,413
143,360
24.12
34.31 M
6.73
Outlying Broward County
Total
28,296
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
A
-
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
B
28,296
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Plantation
Total
8,669,448
12.48%
(342,741)
-
-
27.15
134.97 M
5.58
A
2,299,583
15.20%
(39,975)
-
-
33.09
80.72 M
6.25
B
4,211,028
15.84%
(340,110)
-
-
22.38
44.51 M
5.25
Pompano Beach
Total
6,327,380
8.75%
(33,892)
12,000
87,000
24.00
44.80 M
6.09
A
483,680
27.82%
(57,251)
-
-
29.22
6.65 M
-
B
3,736,065
8.59%
(51,441)
12,000
87,000
22.88
21.21 M
5.00
Sawgrass Park
Total
4,271,890
6.67%
24,549
-
-
26.82
156.48 M
6.66
A
2,250,881
5.85%
42,196
-
-
31.49
127.50 M
6.59
B
1,792,685
7.55%
(17,647)
-
-
21.32
28.98 M
6.85
Southwest Broward
Total
9,023,662
4.71%
(19,935)
-
310,910
31.30
91.20 M
6.52
A
3,570,952
7.55%
(680)
-
300,910
33.23
54.00 M
6.50
B
4,623,609
2.97%
(21,695)
-
10,000
27.00
22.39 M
6.14
Total
70,791,135
8.87%
(516,595)
61,157
917,699
28.30
829.54 M
6.12
A
18,287,649
12.65%
(15,690)
27,744
478,151
33.95
399.97 M
6.47
B
32,923,152
9.73%
(593,861)
33,413
439,548
24.33
292.62 M
5.80
Source: CoStar Property® ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | BROWARD | OFFICE | Q2 2018
$/SF
SIGNIFICANT LEASE TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY ADDRESS
TENANT NAME
SIZE
300 NW 82nd St
Aetna
78,605
1613 NW 136th Ave
N/A
77,006
1571 Sawgras Corporate Park
Cigna
Miramar Park of Commerce 101 NE 3rd Ave
LEASE TYPE
LEASE RATE
SUBMARKET
Direct
$23.50 Net
Plantation
Direct
$18.00 + Elec & Clean
Sawgrass Park
49,868
Direct
$19.50 NNN
Sawgrass Park
N/A
26,347
Direct
$13.95 NNN
SW Broward
N/A
19,195
Direct
$27.00 NNN
Downtown Ft. Lauderdale
SIGNIFICANT SALES TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY
BUYER NAME
SIZE
Sawgrass Commerce Center Bldg A
IP Capital Partners, LLC
69,814
Sawgrass Commerce Center Bldg B
IP Capital Partners, LLC
83,374
One Charter Place
Groupe Petra
Pines Avenue Plaza Andrew Square Pro. & Medical Bld
SALES PRICE $
$/SF
SUBMARKET
57,400,000
822
Sawgrass Park
51,100,000
613
Sawgrass Park
80,489
37,309,603
464
NW Broward/Coral Springs
Academica Corporation
57,530
24,120,042
419
Southwest Broward
1st Step Behavioral
45,952
19,029,958
414
Pompano Beach
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE PROPERTY ADDRESS
COMPLETION
SIZE
DEVELOPER
SUBMARKET
550 Building
Q2 2019
95,532
Douglas Management Realty
Downtown Ft. Lauderdale
300 Hillsboro Technology Dr
Q1 2018
87,068
Butters Construction
Pompano
Cypress Creek medical Pavillon
Q2 2018
81,709
ANF Real Estate Group
Cypress Creek
Progressive Insurance Regional Office Q1 2019
79,200
Progressive Insurance
SW Broward
9530 W Sample Rd
74,000
Kaufmann Lynn Construction
Coral Springs
Q2 2018
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | APARTMENT | Q4 2017
PALM BEACH STRONG
MARKET TRENDS
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WILL
Q2 2018 OFFICE REPORT
CONTINUE TO DRIVE VACANCY RATES DOWN
12 MONTH CHANGE
Q2 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For the majority of the cycle, Palm Beach has had strong and consistent demand, and a relatively low level of construction over the cycle has limited supply-side pressure. Office-using employment growth continues to be a driving force behind the economic improvement across the metro, concentrated in the business hubs of Boca Raton and West Palm Beach. Consequently, landlords have been able to push rents, and rent growth has been outperforming the national average.
FORECAST
VACANCY
10.19%
h
i
NET ABSORPTION SF
10,367
i
h
547,573
h
i
COMPLETIONS SF
3,600
h
h
GROSS LEASE RATE
29.73
h
h
CAP RATE
7.08%
h
g
121
i
h
330.92M
h
h
CONSTRUCTION SF
$/SF
$ SALES VOLUME
RELATIVE TO PRIOR PERIOD | SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 1 YR CHANGE
Q2 2018
CHANGE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3.8%
- 19.1%
POPULATION GROWTH
1,504,590
+ 2.35%
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
61,151
+ 4.25%
LABOR FORCE
622,200
+ 0.70%
CHANGE AS PER YEAR-TO-DATE | SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR STATISTICS
OUTLOOK Palm Beach’s economy is growing at a high rate with record low unemployment figures of 3.8% and 0.7% year over year labor force increase which should positively impact the office market. Moreover the tax reform will further fuel the economy, which will benefit Palm Beach’s office market. As suplly in the market place is expected to remain low, vacancy rates will remain stable with slowly growing rental rates.
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | PALM BEACH | OFFICE | Q2 2018 10
MARKET ACTIVITY Deliveries of new buildings have been very sparse in this cycle. Less than 300,000 SF are under construction and expected to deliver in 2018. About half of that is one tower in the North Palm Beach Submarket. Called the South Tower, it is part of a two-tower project in the Gardens Corporate Center. The complementary North Tower is expected to break ground in mid-2018. Together, the buildings will bring 224,000 SF to the metro.
COMPLETIONS, ABSORPTION AND VACANCY TRENDS COMPLETIONS
At nearly $30/SF, office rents are higher here than in any other Florida metro outside of Miami. Rent growth did slow down over the last year but remains above the national average. Demand was incredible in 2016, which pushed rent growth past 10% for high-quality assets. Despite slowing growth, asking rents have made a full recovery and passed their pre-recession highs.
VACANCY
SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
11.50%
250,000 200,000
11.00%
150,000 100,000
10.50%
50,000 10.00%
-
Q1 2017
(50,000)
Several large projects have been proposed for the CBD, including a large mixed-use complex with 300,000 SF of office space called Transit Village Office, expected to begin construction in late 2018. The 25-story project would include a public transit gateway that connects the Tri-Rail, Amtrak, buses, trolley, and ground transportation.
ABSORPTION
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018 9.50%
(100,000) (150,000)
9.00%
AVERAGE ASKING RENTS TRENDS CLASS A
CLASS B
OVERALL
SOURCE: COSTAR PROPERTY®
40.00 35.00 30.00
The vacancy decline in Palm Beach County has been among the most dramatic in Florida over the last five years. Although vacancies are still among the highest within Southeast markets, levels have always been higher in Palm Beach than in nearby metros, averaging around 12.5% since 2000. The real story is the significant vacancy compression that has ranked—and will continue to rank—among the best for metros nationally through the forecast. Investment has picked up considerably the last four years. The Palm Beach office market is relatively small, about half of Miami’s in terms of existing rentable building area, and it lacks a true central business district altogether. As a result, investors looking for high-quality assets check business hubs in Boca Raton and Delray Beach. Accordingly, sales have picked up in a number of these submarkets as investors attempt to capitalize on the improving economy and healthy fundamentals. Overall transaction volume grew slightly year over year, but sales decreased to $289 million in the last quarter. Acquisition yields for stabilized properties were in the 6.5 % range for Class A assets, and between 6.5% and 7.5% for Class B. Palm Beach is a great market for investors looking for relatively high yields in well balanced economic environment.
25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
PRICE TRENDS CAP RATE
$/SF
$ VOLUME
SOURCE: REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS
328 M
331 M
323 M
8.30%
270 250
7.80%
230
206 M
220 M
218 M 7.30%
186 M
210
160 M
190
133 M 106 M
170
6.80%
122 M
122 M 6.30%
150 5.80%
130 110
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
5.30%
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | PALM BEACH | OFFICE | Q2 2018
11
OFFICE STATISTICS SUBMARKET
TYPE
INVENTORY
VAC. (%)
YTD NET ABS. YTD DELIV.
SF
SF
UNDER CONSTR.
SF
SF
EFF. RENTS/SF
YTD VOLUME $
CAP RATE %
$/SF
Boca Raton East
Total
5,969,768
8.91%
66,003
-
-
30.77
-
-
-
A
1,788,459
13.56%
57,181
-
-
33.65
-
-
-
B
2,860,818
8.79%
(11,612)
-
-
27.96
-
-
-
Boca Raton North
Total
7,125,651
14.38%
71,826
-
-
27.10
-
-
-
A
3,647,738
13.16%
100,193
-
-
28.72
-
-
-
B
3,125,036
17.36%
(28,319)
-
-
24.75
-
-
-
Boca Raton West
Total
4,521,155
13.51%
(40,276)
-
-
35.59
-
-
-
A
2,396,640
18.08%
(38,765)
-
-
38.87
-
-
-
B
1,993,247
8.05%
(2,436)
-
-
29.63
-
-
-
Boynton/Lantana
Total
2,779,962
12.29%
(73,246)
-
-
26.12
14.17 M
8.30
228.40
A
234,112
1.93%
130
-
-
33.57
-
-
-
B
1,997,022
15.57%
(61,083)
-
-
26.06
9.25 M
-
346.59
Delray Beach
Total
3,987,278
7.78%
13,321
-
149,608
31.85
30.81 M
6.50
329.64
A
66,845
0.22%
2,711
-
65,308
48.25
-
-
-
B
2,615,801
8.62%
8,537
-
84,300
29.70
5.37 M
6.50
338.73
Jupiter
Total
3,610,624
5.62%
4,077
-
-
27.19
22.54 M
6.50
206.62
A
716,414
5.09%
1,751
-
-
33.59
14.99 M
6.50
156.22
B
2,269,057
5.61%
13,308
-
-
26.36
4.78 M
-
193.40
North Palm Beach
Total
8,584,732
9.04%
(67,427)
9,400
223,943
28.53
106.04 M
7.90
143.03
A
1,611,231
11.71%
(15,021)
-
223,943
35.80
70.10 M
8.40
221.83
B
5,484,062
8.76%
(27,053)
9,400
-
25.28
22.57 M
8.10
155.95
Outlying Palm Beach City Total
1,567,203
9.83%
(5,282)
3,600
131,499
28.67
-
-
-
A
37,500
94.58%
-
-
26,500
34.85
-
-
-
B
1,137,518
7.58%
4,738
3,600
104,999
28.65
-
-
-
Palm Beach
Total
1,155,111
15.69%
(9,358)
-
-
58.78
72.42 M
7.82
264.11
A
118,913
14.33%
1,901
-
-
60.16
30.70 M
4.40
613.79
B
708,093
20.28%
(12,659)
-
-
59.42
40.12 M
11.76
241.90
Palm Springs/Lake Worth Total
1,018,792
5.07%
9,931
-
12,867
28.12
17.18 M
10.84
197.67
A
50,577
0.00%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
B
549,224
4.45%
3,861
-
12,867
31.22
13.04 M
-
246.29
Total
1,765,491
5.61%
(873)
8,800
17,362
28.26
3.28 M
Royal Palm Beach/Wellington 706.14
A
149,705
9.25%
(4,596)
-
-
33.11
-
-
-
B
1,181,080
6.35%
5,022
8,800
17,362
28.49
1.11 M
-
185.50
West Palm Beach
Total
7,915,403
9.41%
35,025
-
12,294
23.73
169.12 M
5.40
240.27
A
1,199,331
12.61%
(11,922)
-
-
27.88
65.05 M
-
228.45
B
3,857,211
11.42%
59,184
-
12,294
23.51
71.60 M
7.00
181.73
West Palm Beach CBD
Total
5,402,497
11.39%
(109,258)
-
-
34.13
-
-
-
A
2,583,040
12.90%
(38,756)
-
-
40.84
-
-
-
B
1,927,540
9.45%
(64,247)
-
-
23.22
-
-
-
Total
55,403,667
10.19%
(105,537)
21,800
547,573
29.73
435.57 M
6.87
226.59
A
14,600,505
13.26%
54,807
-
315,751
34.48
180.84 M
7.09
285.32
B
29,705,709
10.27%
(112,759)
21,800
231,822
27.36
167.84 M
8.53
212.12
Source: CoStar Property® ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | PALM BEACH | OFFICE | Q2 2018
-
SIGNIFICANT LEASE TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY ADDRESS
BUYER NAME
SIZE
SALES PRICE $
$/SF
SUBMARKET
Boca Raton Innovation Campus
MobileHelp
54,000
Direct
$15.00
Boca Raton
The Park at Broken Sound
Hollander
43,427
Direct
$16.00
Boca Raton
Quantum Park at Boynton
N/A
35,000
Direct
$10.00 NNN
Boynton Beach
Quantum Park at Boynton
N/A
25,000
Direct
$14.00 NNN
Boynton Beach
Boca Village Corporate Center
The Geo Group
24,914
Direct
$29.00 NNN
Boca Raton
SIGNIFICANT SALES TRANSACTIONS PROPERTY
BUYER NAME
SIZE
SLAES PRICE $
SUBMARKET
The Park at Broken Sound
Pebb Enterprises
171,490
42,050,000
245
Boca Raton
Boca Raton Innovation Campus
Crocker Partners, LLC
301,221
26,969,626
90
Boca Raton
900 Broken Sound Pky NW
NAI/Merin Hunter Codman, Inc.
115,986
23,675,000
204
Boca Raton
Courthouse Commons
Granite Telecommunications, LLC.
85,668
22,750,000
266
West Palm Beach
Boca Raton Innovation Campus
Crocker Partners, LLC
177,994
21,226,087
119
Boca Raton
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE PROPERTY ADDRESS
COMPLETION
SIZE
DEVELOPER
SUBMARKET
3825 PGA Blvd. - South Tower
Q3 2018
111,972
DiVosta Investments
Palm Beach Gardens
3835 PGA Blvd. - North Tower
Q3 2018
111,972
DiVosta Investments
Palm Beach Gardens
4th & 5th Delray
Q1 2019
84,300
iPic Entertainment
Delray Beach
Atlantic Crossing
Q3 2019
65,308
Edwards Companies
Palm Beach
Mirasol Town Center
Q4 2018
46,000
John C. Bills
Palm Beach Gardens
ONE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE | MIAMI-DADE | APARTMENT | Q4 2017
STEVEN NOSTRAND President & COO ONE Commercial Real Estate
PALM BEACH
snostrand@onecommercialre.com
JULIAN SCHEEFF Director of Intelligence ONE Commercial Real Estate jscheeff@onecommercialre.com
ALEX MAKKI Marketing Coordinator ONE Commercial Real Estate amakki@onecommercialre.com
BROWARD MIAMI-DADE
ONE Commercial Real Estate 1000 Brickell Avenue, Suite 500 Miami, FL 33131 305.704.9787
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.