URBIS Market Outlook St Marys

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MARKET OUTLOOK ST

MARYS St Marys is a suburban centre that boasts access to public transport, employment, retail amenity and open space. St Marys is evolving and will benefit from multi-billion dollar infrastructure investment. 01 Location and Accessibility 03 Infrastructure & Employment 04 Population & Demographics 05 Apartment Market Overview 06 Rental Market Overview Prepared exclusively for ALAND January 2022

LOCATION & ACCESSIBILITY

SHOPPING

The St Marys Town Centre is a vibrant shopping precinct with around 250 businesses. St Marys Village Shopping Centre anchors the St Marys Town Centre and is home to over 40 specialty stores with major retailers including Woolworths and Target. Westfield Mt Druitt is a 12-minute drive from St Marys. The regional shopping centre has approximately 230 stores and is anchored by Kmart, Target, Coles and Woolworths as well as a Hoyts Cinema entertainment precinct.

EDUCATION

St Marys is located close to education facilities including Our Lady of the Rosary Primary School, St Marys Public School and St Marys Senior High School. Residents also have access to local tertiary institutions including Western Sydney University at Kingswood and TAFE NSW Nepean.

HEALTH & WELLBEING

Nepean Hospital (5km west) and Mt Druitt Hospital (5km east) are both located close to St Marys and provide 24-hour emergency service and a wide range of health services. Nepean Hospital currently has 520 beds and Mt Druitt Hospital offers 161 beds.

PARKS AND RECREATION

There are numerous parks and reserves throughout St Marys and the surrounding area, which provide a range of places for active and passive recreation. These include Lang Park, Whalan Reserve and nearby Wianamatta Regional Park. Residents also have access to recreational facilities including Ripples Leisure Centre, Colonial Golf Course and St Marys Tennis Club.

TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY

St Marys railway station is located on the Western Line and provides direct access to the Sydney CBD (54 min), Parramatta CBD (24 min) and Penrith CBD (10 min). The station will be upgraded with a new underground metro station and bus interchange. Residents can also easily access the M4 Motorway and Great Western Highway to travel throughout Sydney. The strong connectivity means major health, education and employment hubs are accessible within 30-minutes of St Marys.

36 RETAIL AND ENTERTAINMENT 01 St Marys Village Shopping Centre 02 Station Plaza 03 Queen Street Strip 04 Westfield Mt Druitt 05 Penrith Homemaker Centre 06 Westpoint Blacktown HEALTH & WELLBEING 07 Nepean Hospital 08 Nepean Private Hospital 09 Mt Druitt Hospital 10 Somerset Private Hospital 11 St Marys Medical Centre 12 12.Renshaw Medical Centre 38
05 07 08 10 21 22 1 Market Outlook St Marys

St Marys is strategically located at the heart of Western Sydney with proximity to open space, recreation, retail and jobs.

EDUCATION 13 St Marys Public School 14 St Marys North Public School 15 St Marys South Public School 16 St Marys Senior High School 17 Our Lady of the Rosary Primary School 18 Colyton High School 19 Oxley Park Public School 20 Chifley College Dunheved Campus 21 TAFE NSW Nepean, Kingswood 22 Western Sydney University Kingswood PARKS AND RECREATION 23 Wianamatta Regional Park 24 Whalan Reserve 25 Federation Forest 26 Victoria Park 27 Bennett Park 28 Cook Park 29 Lang Park 30 The Kingsway Rugby Fields 31 Colonial Golf Course 32 Dunheved Golf Club 33 Ripples St Marys Leisure Centre 34 St Marys Rugby League Club 35 St Marys Tennis Club COMMERCIAL 36 Penrith CBD 37 North St Mary Employment Zone 38 Lambridge Business Park 28 30 26 27
03 04 09 11 12 15 17 23 18 19 20 24 25 31 32 34 35 06 02 37 16 29 01 13 33 2 Prepared exclusively for ALAND

INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT

INFRASTRUCTURE

01 WESTERN SYDNEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

(EXPECTED COMPLETION 2026) $5.25b

The Western Sydney International Airport is under construction in Badgerys Creek, with the first stage due to be completed by late 2026. The new airport will be a key gateway to the region and is expected to accommodate 10 million passengers a year.

02 SYDNEY METRO-WESTERN SYDNEY AIRPORT LINE

(EXPECTED COMPLETION 2026) $11b

A new metro railway line will deliver approximately 23km of rail providing access to the new Western Sydney International Airport. Six stations (comprising St Marys, Orchard Hills, Luddenham, Airport Business Park, Airport Terminal and Aerotropolis) will be built with the line connecting to the existing T1 Western Line at St Marys. The St Marys station will be upgraded with a new underground metro station, new bus interchange and commuter car park extension.

03 M12 MOTORWAY (EXPECTED COMPLETION 2026)

$2.04b

The M12 Motorway project is in the planning stage and comprises a 16km connection between the M7 Motorway and The Northern Road. The M12 Motorway will provide direct access to the Western Sydney International Airport, improve road capacity in the region and reduce travel times.

EMPLOYMENT

Employment growth is an important driver of residential demand with workers looking to live near where they work. There are considerable employment opportunities within the St Marys Town Centre with major developments anticipated to increase local job opportunities. North St Marys is one of the largest industrial precincts in Western Sydney and is a major driver of the local economy. In addition, St Marys is easily accessible by road and rail to major commercial centres including the Penrith (10 minutes), Parramatta (24 minutes) and Blacktown CBDs (9 minutes).

The NSW government estimates the Western Sydney Airport will deliver approximately 28,000 new jobs to the South-west Sydney region making it a major catalyst for employment growth. Of these jobs, 7,720 will be in the new Aerotropolis precinct. Future infrastructure projects including the North-South Rail Link will connect St Marys directly to the new airport and create more employment opportunities for residents.

St Marys will benefit from several major infrastructure projects across transport, health, retail and civic facilities totalling around $20 billion.

04 NEPEAN HOSPITAL (EXPECTED COMPLETION

2025) $1b

Redevelopment of the Nepean Hospital with stage 1 including a new 14-storey hospital tower, expanded emergency department, more than 12 new operating theatres, over 200 overnight beds, new community health services and expansion of the Nepean Cancer Care services. Stage 2 will include a new intensive care unit, in-centre renal dialysis unit, medical imaging and nuclear medicine services, staff education and training facilities.

05 ST MARYS COMMUTER CAR PARK UPGRADE (EXPECTED COMPLETION 2022) $33.8m

Upgrade of the St Marys commuter car park to increase public transport capacity of the park and ride facilities in St Marys by 50% and grow public transport usage.

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITHIN KEY SURROUNDING CENTRES 2021 to 2036

TOWN CENTRE/PRECINCTNEW JOBS

St Marys

Blacktown CBD

Parramatta CBD/Westmead

Penrith CBD

Source: TfNSW 2020; Prepared by Urbis

+1,030

77,000 NEW JOBS WITHIN SURROUNDING CENTRES BY 2031

+3,279

+41,975

+2,753

02
Market Outlook St Marys 3

POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS

St Marys is a rapidly growing suburb within the Western Sydney region with the population having grown by 18% over the last decade, equating to around 2,715 new residents.

The population of St Marys is projected to double over the next 15 years, driven by increased density in the town centre and leveraging growth and connectivity with the new airport. This equates to average growth of 4.3% per annum from 2021 to 2036., which is around three times the Metropolitan Sydney average (1.4%).

St Marys has a large portion of residents (28%) aged between 25-44 and an average household size of 2.7 in 2016. The lower household size reflects the relatively high proportion of lone person households (28%) and couples (28%) living in the region. These household segments are a key driver of apartment demand and is highlighted by 55% of households renting in the area.

St Marys is a multicultural community with around a third of residents born overseas with key countries of origin including New Zealand, Philippines and India. This is continuing to grow with around 52% of new residents in the area over the past five years coming from overseas. The proportion of white-collar workers was 53% in 2016, of which 18% were managers or professionals. The area is becoming more affluent with 22% of households having a total income above $104,000 (up from 15% in 2011).

With growing incomes, a high proportion of renters and a large number of single person and couple households, St Marys has a large potential tenant pool underpinned by population growth, access to employment nodes and public transport.

The St Marys area is projected to experience population growth of around 4.3% per annum to 2036.

WHO LIVES IN ST MARYS?

Average Age of Residents 3736 Average Household Size 2.62.7

Average Household Income $61,449$72,878

Average Per Capita Income $33,942$36,771

Source: ABS Census 2016; Prepared by Urbis ST MARYS AREA POPULATION GROWTH

20112016
Above
Residents Aged
Overseas
Couple
with
29%28% Lone
Households 28%28% Proportion of Renters 44%55% Employed in White Collar Jobs 54%53% Managers and Professionals 18%18% Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 8% 10%
Household Income
$104,000 15% 22%
20-39 29%31%
Born 30%32%
Family
no children
Person
Population (No.) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 35,000 30,000 40,000 2036 2031 2026 2021 Prepared exclusively for ALAND 4
Source: TfNSW 2020; Prepared by Urbis

APARTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW

The apartment market in St Marys has experienced significant growth averaging 7.1% per annum over the last 10 years to June 2021. Apartment price growth in St Marys has outperformed Greater Sydney (4.4%)

The median unit price of $550,000 is well below the median house price $857,500, which highlights the relative affordability of units.

While Covid-19 caused a contraction in the Sydney apartment market, the St Marys market has been more resilient and recorded strong demand. The median sale price rose 10% in the first half of 2021 to $550,000. The current median price is now above the previous peak of $530,000 in 2017. Overall, St Marys has rebounded faster than other locations in Sydney that have higher supply.

Data from Urbis and Cordell Connect indicates that around 343 apartments are proposed to be completed in the St Marys Area over the next five years. Of the total development pipeline, 322 units have received development approval with 21 units currently under construction. With projected population growth of 16,600 over the next 15 years and an average household size of 2.7, there is a need for around 6,150 new dwellings in St Marys. This highlights a deficit of supply in the area with only 343 units currently in the pipeline.

The St Marys housing market has recorded strong price growth over the last ten years and outperformed the Sydney market.

Stage Apartments Construction 21 Development Approval 322 Development Application 0 Total 343 Source: Cordell Connect; Prepared by Urbis PROPOSED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT St Marys
$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Median Price ($) Transactions (No.) Number of Sales Median Sale Price $550,000 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19Jun-20Jun-21
ST MARYS APARTMENT MARKET Semi-Annual
Source: Pricefinder; Prepared by Urbis
Source: Pricefinder;
MEDIAN UNIT PRICE GROWTH Sep 2021 St Marys 5 year10 year 1.9% 7.1% Median Price Growth (Units) 0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% 8.0% Sydney 4.4% 0.8%
Prepared by Urbis
1 bed $282 2 bed $420 New & near-new product Established product (RTA) 2019-202020-212021-22 2,300 2,190 1,960 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Construction Retail Trade Health Care Education Accommodation & Food Services Transport Professional Services Other 93% 58% 6% 28% 14% 1% Separate Houses Flat, Unit or Apar tment Semi-detached 6,450 new lots TOTAL $600 000 $500 000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100 000 $0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Median Pric e ($ ) Tr an sa ct ions (N o. ) Number of Sales Median Sale Price $550,000 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18Jun-19Jun-20Jun-21 1 bed $282 2 bed $420 New & near-new product Established product (RTA) 2019-202020-212021-22 2,300 2,190 1,960 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Construction Retail Trade Health Care Education Accommodation & Food Services Transport Professional Services Other 93% 58% 6% 28% 14% 1% Separate Houses Flat, Unit or Apar tment Semi-detached 6,450 new lots TOTAL $600 000 $500 000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100 000 $0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Median Pric e ($ ) Tr an sa ct ions (N o. ) Number of Sales Median Sale Price $550,000 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18Jun-19Jun-20Jun-21 Market Outlook St Marys 5
THE ST MARYS MARKET HAS BEEN MORE RESILIENT AND RECORDED STRONG DEMAND.

RENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW

St Marys recorded a median weekly rent of $290 for one-bedroom apartments and $325 for two-bedroom in the June Quarter 2021. Since 2011, median weekly rents for two-bedroom units in the St Marys have grown at 2.0% per annum, almost double the Greater Sydney average of 1.1%.

The residential vacancy rate in St Marys has remained below Greater Sydney over the last three years. From 2016 to 2019, the vacancy rate in St Marys was between 2.5% and 4% before dropping to 0.8% in September 2021. St Marys has benefited from the Covid-19 pandemic with a preferential shift from inner city areas toward suburban locations with an attractive outdoor lifestyle. Gross rental yields for units in St Marys averaged 3.4% in January 2022, higher than the Greater Sydney average of 3.3%. This highlights the strong apartment rental market in St Marys relative to sales prices. House rental yields averaged 2.5% in January 2022, which highlights the relatively higher returns of units.

1.9% GROW TH PER ANNUM 2011–2031

St Marys has recorded rental growth and yields above the Sydney average.

SUMMARY

St Marys is evolving and will benefit from multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investment including the Western International Airport and new metro rail line. St Marys residents boast access the local amenity including St Mary Village Shopping Centre, multiple schools and a range of local parks. These assets provide residents with high quality of life that has made the region attractive to younger residents and families.

The residential market has recorded strong price growth, rental growth and rental yields that is well above the Greater Sydney average. Infrastructure growth and relative affordability will be key drivers for the local apartment market.

Type St Marys Greater Sydney 1-bed units 3.8% 0.6% 2-bed units 2.0% 1.1% MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT GROWTH September 2011 to June 2021 Source: NSW Department of Housing; Prepared by Urbis Location Unit House St Marys 3.6% 2.5% Greater Sydney 3.3% 2.5% UNIT GROSS RENTAL YIELD January 2022 Source: Pricefinder RENTAL GROWTH 2 Bed Units RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATE Sep 2016 to Sep 2021 Source: SQM research Source: SQM Research; Prepared by Urbis Development Application Development Approval Construction 504 1,103 938 Mooted Development Application Development Approval Constructio 1,502 504 1,103 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 938 2006 2011 2016 $78,767 $96,084 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0
Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21 St Marys Greater Sydney 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Jun-11Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21 St Marys Greater Sydney We ek ly Median Re nt ($ ) $300 $200 $100 $0 $500 $40 0 $600 2.7% 0.8% Mooted Development Application Development Approval Construction 1,50 504 1,103 938 Mooted Development Application Development Approval Constructio 1,502 504 1,103 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 938 2006 2011 2016 $78,767 $96,084 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 1.9% GROW TH PER ANNUM 2011–2031 328,199 Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21 St Marys Greater Sydney 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Jun-11Dec-11Jun-12Dec-12Jun-13Dec-13Jun-14Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21 St Marys Greater Sydney We ek ly Median Re nt ($ ) $300 $200 $100 $0 $500 $40 0 $600 2.7% 0.8% 6 Prepared exclusively for ALAND

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