Buyer & Seller Package Aug-Sept 2013

A Signature

Guide Series

Home Buyer & Seller Package

Ta n Tea m

I

Tan and The TAN Team can provide you with an unparalleled level of service and attention when it comes to an important decision such as buying and selling your home. Our passion and knowledge of the area serves as our commitment to making a difference and has helped us build a name for offering the highest level of customer service possible.

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Buy l a nd, t he y ar e n’ t m a k ing t ho se a n ym or e -M ark T wain

Inside this is s ue Augu st- Se pt e mbe r 2013

THE CARNEY DILEMA &

Page 1

TAN’S INSIGHT

OWNING VS RENTING

Page 2

TREB MARKET WATCH

Page 3

GTA AVERAGE DETACH

Page 4

PRICE TREND

NEW CMHC

Page 5

RESTRICTIONS

TRENDS DEFY HOUSING BUBBLE

Page 6

Tan Te a m

Ta n Tea m

1

The C a r ne y dil e m a and ta n’s in sig h t 5B O t H B [ JOF & EJ UPS J B M 5F B N #S B N Q UPO t Ap r il 2 3 , 2 0 1 2

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney says that segments of

He continues, "The economy still works with or without

the housing market in particular parts of the country are

intervention - there exists people who rely on loans to

heading for trouble where their prices are reaching an all-time

continue their dailing doings and then there are those who rely

high. Is Mark Carney suggesting a housing market bubble

on the lending but no 'that much' and of course there exists

exists in Canada?

those who completely don't rely on the loans at all. What I'm

Mark Carney believes that Canadians are taking on

saying is tightening won't solve anything and mixing

too much household debt, especially since the Bank of Canada

everyone under the 'completely relying on loans' category is

left its key interest rate the same for the 13th consecutive

just dowright unfair." he added that while household debt will

time. He wants to curb the people's appetite for cheap money.

have a definite impact on current home owners and

"First and foremost, it's the decisions of the individuals who

future-to-be home owners, this tightening will bar those who

take out the loans, and Canadians are a smart and prudent

may be able to afford a home right now in the near future. This

people." Carney says, he also mentioned that it isn't just the

may mean your 5% down for a new home will require to dish

Canadian individuals pulling out a loan, it's also the banks and

out 10% instead even though you are fully capable of pulling

institutions that must also change their game plans and have

a loan and paying it back.

systems in place to stop lending money to people who cannot

Tan added, "Yes, house prices are at an all time high

pay them back. This leads to the federal goverment to tighten

in segments of the housing market, the thought of a housing

mortgage lending rules. Hence "help to ensure the system is

market bubble is feasible - however, it should be noted that the

resilient," he said.

market as seemingly hot as it is now, is lacking inventory

Tan Team Leader and Broker, Peng Hock Tan sheds

which will mean one thing...Pent up demand for homes will

some insight on Mark Carney's proposed tightening and

push home prices further up." he says, "The market forces are

mentions in a brief interview with the Tan Team Editiors, "By

dictated by the consumers, You and I, and what we choose to

tightening lending, we are putting a stunt on the growth of the

do will affect the housing market directly and or indirectly."

economy. Money to people is like what milk is to infants. By

For example, if chance were to throw a large amount of homes

tightening the amount of milk we give out, we rob our

onto the market to feed the hungry home buyers, then it'll

economy (infants) needed opportunity of growth." Tan says,

probably even out the market - evetually there will be pent up

"While tightening lending may be a good idea, we must also

demand for home buyers again, which will mean home prices

acknowledge the fact that we have hungry infants all around

will reamin stable until that demand is met and the cycle

us."

repeats.

2

Tan Te a m

"The cycle will continue to spin, there is no stopping it. This

to do so. Whether you are forced to or, if the timing says that

leads us back to our last interview where the killer question is:

it's time to make a move - is completely up to you. Will you

'When's the right time to buy or sell?" - Well, it's right now of

fuel the demand for homes on the market? Or will you add to

course!" You should buy or sell when you are in the position

the already existing net of hungry home buyers?

Owning VS R e n t ing %JE :PV ,OPX *O 5PEBZ T . BSLFU *U *T $IFBQFS 5P #VZ 5IFO 5P 3F OU If you’ve recently decided to make the

unchanged throughout the term of the

Approve

transition from renter to homeowner,

financing. The impact of inflation over

Flexibility:

you are about to make an important

the years means you pay the same

investment in your long-term financial

amount, but in devalued dollars.

and

well being. Still on the fence? Consider

Profit from Appreciation - Housing

brokers can help‌

the following benefits. Owning your

historically increases in value over

own home can allow you to:

time, which is as good as money in the

product(s) and rate(s) in the mortgage

Build Equity - When you purchase

bank for the homeowner. At the same

market, whether you are purchasing a

your own home and make mortgage

time as you build equity by making

home,

payments, you accumulate equity in the

mortgage payments, what you can get

mortgage, or renewing your mortgage

property. Think of your home as a

when you sell your home will likely

“three bedroom savings account.� You

increase over the long term.

may borrow against this equity or

Ultimately, buying a home isn’t only

convert

you

about money. Home ownership makes it

eventually sell your property. Over the

easier to put down roots in your

long term, building equity in your own

community, and can give you a new

assets is far more astute than paying

sense of pride in your surroundings.

rent and financing someone else's

You have full freedom to renovate your

property.

space to fit neatly with your family’s

Stabilize Housing Costs - While rent

lifestyle.

typically increases from year to year,

Talk to your Mortgage Consultant today

with fixed-rate and some variable-rate

about your home financing options.

mortgages

Independent

it

into

your

cash

when

payments

remain

Mortgage

Upfront,

With

Maximum

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Consultants

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questions

Independent Always Yours!

&

Mortgage

concerns.

Advice

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For All TREB Member Inquiries: (416) 443-8152 For All Media/Public Inquiries: (416) 443-8158

July 2013 Economic Indicators Strong Sales and Price Growth in July Real GDP Growthi Q1 2013

2.5%

Toronto Employment Growthi i June 2013 5.1% Toronto Unemployment Rate June 2013 7.8% Inflation (Yr./Yr. CPI Growth)i i June 2013 1.2% iii

Bank of Canada Overnight Rate

July 2013

1.0%

3.0%

iv

Prime Rate July 2013

Sources and Notes:

iii

Bank of Canada, Rate from most recent Bank of Canada announcement iv

Bank of Canada, Rates for most recently completed month

TorontoMLS Average Price1,7

July 2013

July 2012

416

Total

Average Price 416 905 Total

Detached Yr./Yr. % Change

986 20.7%

3,143 19.6%

4,129 19.8%

$793,842 $597,404 $644,313 6.5% 8.0% 7.6%

Semi-Detached Yr./Yr. % Change

340 28.8%

617 25.2%

957 26.4%

Townhouse Yr./Yr. % Change

351 12.5%

1,033 7.9%

1,384 9.1%

Condo Apartment Yr./Yr. % Change

1,353 10.6%

541 10.2%

1,894 10.5%

2013 2012 Sales 8,544 7,338 New Listings 14,132 13,809 $452,167 $379,463 $397,901 Active Listings 20,514 20,318 8.8% 6.2% 7.1% Average Price $513,246 $475,523 $361,969 $281,044 $338,854 Average DOM 27 26 4.1% 1.0% 3.4%

Statistics Canada, Quarter-over-quarter growth, annualized Statistics Canada, Year-over-year growth for the most recently reported month

July 2012

Sales 905

i

ii

July 2013

7,338

$475,523

Sales & Average Price By Major Home Type1,7 July 2013

8,544

$513,246

iv

Mortgage Rates (July 2013) Chartered Bank Fixed Rates 1 Year 3.14% 3 Year 3.75% 5 Year 5.14%

TORONTO, August 2, 2013 – Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,544 residential sales through the TorontoMLS system in July 2013. Total sales were up by 16 per cent compared to July 2012. Over the same period, new listings added to TorontoMLS and active listings at the end of the month were up, but by a substantially smaller rate of increase compared to sales.

“Last month’s sales represented the best July result since 2009 and was the third best July result on record. Despite recent increases in average borrowing costs, home buyers are still finding affordable home ownership options in the GTA,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.

“We are a year removed from the onset of stricter mortgage lending guidelines and many households who put their decision to purchase a home on hold have reactivated their search.

An increasing number of these households are getting deals done,” continued Ms. Usher.

Reflecting tighter market conditions, the average selling price for July sales was up on a yearover-year basis by eight per cent to $513,246. The low-rise market segment continued to be the driver of overall price growth. It should be noted, however, that the average condominium apartment price was also up by more than the rate of inflation on an annual basis. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was also up on a year-over-year basis for all major home types.

“We are forecasting continued average price growth for the remainder of 2013 and through 2014 as well. Months of inventory for low-rise homes remains near record lows, suggesting that sellers’ market conditions will remain in place in the second half of 2013. An increase in listings in 2014 would lead to more balanced market conditions and a slower pace of price growth next year, albeit still above the rate of inflation,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

TorontoMLS Sales Activity1,7

$584,499 $416,420 $476,134 11.1% 6.5% 8.7%

Year-Over-Year Summary

1,7

% Chg. 16.4% 2.3% 1.0% 7.9% 7.1%

Not to be reproduced in any form. Interpretation by unqualified or inexperienced persons could lead to serious margin of error.

Printed 8/12/2013

$600,000

8 th Aug 2013 Average $498,767 $580,000

$560,000

$540,000

20th Jan 2011 Average $433,805 $520,000

$500,000

25th Jan 2010 Average $421, 271

$480,000

7th Jan 2009 Average $330,056 $460,000

$440,000

$420,000

$400,000

$380,000

$360,000

$340,000

$320,000

$300,000

$280,000

$260,000

$240,000

AVERAGE ANNUAL HOME SALES PRICES IN GTA (As at 8th Aug 2013) This chart is a guide and for discussion only. Data source: Toronto Real Estate Board - In conjunction with TREB's redistricting project, historical data may be subject to revision moving forward. This could temporarily impact per cent change comparisons to data from year to year.

$220,000

- CAUTION NO REPRESENTATION of accuracy of data or interpretation by Royal LePage and/or its agents. To be interpreted by professional Realtors with experience and with all other pertinent data.

$200,000

Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS速 sales since January 1996 and then weekly from September 2008. The red line shows actual recorded sales. The blue line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. The blue line is a 12 -month forecasted moving average with no adjustment A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend

Ta n Tea m

5

Ne w CMHC Restrictions Could Impact Mortgage R ates TV TB O 1JH H #VTJOF T T 3 F Q PSU F S t August 06, 2013

First-time buyers are most likely to feel any impact of new

announcement curious, given that interest rates have already

restrictions introduced by the Canada Mortgage and Housing

been edging up slightly as bonds have started to surge, others

Corp. that appear to be aimed at further cooling the housing

say the recent spike in home and condo sales in many major

market and limiting Ottawa’s exposure if house prices slump,

Canadian cities may have spurred Ottawa to act, yet again, to

banking and mortgage experts say. But the impact is unlikely

cool a market that has remained surprisingly resilient.

to be big, they add.

Home sales were up more than 16 per cent in Toronto

The federal housing agency has served notice that it

in July, year-over-year, with increases reported in most major

is limiting guarantees it offers banks, credit unions and other

Canadian cities. Toronto prices were up eight per cent during

mortgage lenders to $350 million per lender this month under

the same period to an average of $513,246, according to

its National Housing Act Mortgage-Backed Securities (NHA

figures released last week by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

MBS) program. CMHC had been given the okay by Ottawa to

“I think it’s fair to say that Ottawa is incredibly,

guarantee up to $85 billion of mortgage-backed securities for

intensely focused on the housing market and the last thing

2013, but an “unexpected increase in issuance volumes�

they want to see is the market flare higher again,� said BMO

resulted in those commitments having reached $66 billion by

chief economist Douglas Porter. “They are doing whatever

the end of July.

they can to guide it to a soft landing. They do want it to land.�

In a note to lenders last week, setting the August

Jim Murphy, chief executive of the Canadian Association of

guarantee limit, CMHC said it will introduce a “formal

Accredited Mortgage Professionals, said he doesn’t see the

allocation process� for the rest of the year’s guarantee

CMHC announcement so much as an attempt to slow the

allotment by month’s end.

market, as “part of the policy of the current government to

Smaller lenders are expected to feel the restrictions far less than the big banks which have used the conversion of

limit taxpayer exposure.�

It is just another policy initiative, on top of four

loans into securities with CMHC backing to tap money from a

mortgage lending rule changes over the last five years — the

broad range of investors and offer mortgages at lower rates.

last of which limited amortizations for homebuyers seeking

One bank economist estimated that steps the government has taken over the last year, coupled with the

CMHC-insured mortgages to 25 years, added Murphy. “The consistent policy of this government has been to

beginnings of a sell-off in the bond market, could push

restrict or curtail its exposure – I would even say involvement

mortgage rates up anywhere from 20 to 65 basis points, or 0.2

– in the overall mortgage market,� said Murphy. “Whether the

to 0.65 of a percentage point.

housing market was really healthy or really slow right now

While some housing analysts found the timing of the CMHC

wouldn’t have made a difference.�

6

Tan Te a m

Tr end s De f y Ho u sing B u bbl e s R oyal LePage foreca sts modest house price gains for rem ainder of 2013, a s Canadian housing emer ges fr om current m arket c ycle

The average price of a home in Canada

Dialogue concerning the direction of

appreciation in most markets across the

increased between 1.2 per cent and 2.7

Canada’s housing market has remained

country has been well below the

per cent in the second quarter of 2013,

front and centre in recent months.

long-term average for Canada and will

according to the Royal LePage House

Changes to Canada’s mortgage lending

remain so through to the end of the year.

Price

rules

Survey

and

Market

Survey

with

We expect to see the number of

concerns about consumer debt levels,

homes trading hands to begin to rise

survey,

housing affordability in cities like

slightly on a year-over-year basis in the

markets across the country continue to

Toronto and Vancouver and continued

second half of 2013, with price softness

post gains. In the second quarter,

international

uncertainty

continuing until mid-2014, at which

standard

have prompted a number of analysts to

point we’ll see an emergence from the

detached bungalows both showed a

forecast

current cycle.”

year-over-year average price increase

adjustments.

of 2.7 per cent to $419,614 and

“As

Forecast, released today.

According

to

two-storey

the

homes

and

in

mid-2012

coupled

economic

large

downward

price

Recent signals from major we

have

stated

financial institutions in the United

$386,547, respectively. Average prices

consistently since the current market

States and Canada also point to a turn in

for standard condominiums showed a

downturn began late in the second

the tide. In recent weeks, two of

more modest increase during the same

quarter of 2012, this is a normal

Canada’s largest home-loan lenders,

period, rising 1.2 per cent to $248,750.

cyclical correction which brings fewer

Royal Bank of Canada and TD Bank

Royal LePage forecasts that house

home sales and softer prices. Those

Group, raised their mortgage rates. At

prices will see modest gains throughout

hoping their predictions of a bursting

the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve

the remainder of 2013, projecting a 3.0

bubble and cataclysmic drops in home

recently hinted that it may start winding

per cent increase for the full year when

values will come true are out of luck

up monetary stimulus later this year,

compared to 2012.

again,” said Phil Soper, president and

should

chief executive of Royal LePage. “Price

continue.

economic

improvements

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