Volume II—Issue 7
A Magazine for Aviation Leaders & Influencers
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FEATURED
Aeromexico: Is the Successful Turnaround Reaching its Limits? More articles inside...
Air China: What Did the Airline Profits Sustainability Index Reveal?
Release date: February 2016
Has Delta Inspired a New Airbus A320neo: What If PerforPassenger Dynamics? mance Exceeds Expectations?
Volume II—Issue 7
February 2016
Airline Profits
Contents 6
Editorial: Ha s D e lta Ai r Lin es In spir ed a Ne w Passenger Dynamics
10
Profile: Air Chin a : W ha t Did th e Air lin e Pr ofits Sustainability Index Reveal?
16
Perspective: Does Qa ta r Air w a ys Ha ve a Poin t in
Opposing the Idea of Consolidation of Gulf Carriers?
22
Performance: Aer om e xico: Is the Successful Turnaround Reaching its Limits?
26
Paradigm: K en ya Air w a ys: Cou ld a n Ea r lier
Restructuring Have Prevented the Fiasco?
32
Platform: Air b us A320n eo: W ha t If Pe r for m a n ce Exceeds Expectations Significantly?
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3
HEAD OF PROGRAMS:
Kofi Sonokpon
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Š2015 Airline Profits ISSN 2368-7800 (Print) ISSN 2368-7819 (Online)
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Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Editorial Has Delta Air Lines Inspired a New Passenger Dynamics? Kofi Sonokpon editor@airlineprofits.com
It was back in 2011 that David Malovani now 57, who has been a business consultant for over 30 years had a shock about what he considered an unfair practice by Delta Air Lines. At the time, Mr. Malovani and his wife wanted to drop one leg of their multi-segment travel itinerary. They were quoted a total change fee of 1600 US dollars for two tickets, which cost them 2600 US dollars about eight months earlier.
They objected to the fees and suggested instead to simply consider other arrangements and
catch
their
return
flight
as
planned. Mr. Malovani was all the more shocked when he was
told that they would incur a noshow fee of 500 US dollars each, otherwise they would not be al-
lowed to board their return flight
David Malovani has incorporated a non-profit organization in the State of Delaware, USA in order to promote straightforward, simpler and more honest ticketing rules, to support passengers in case of legal dispute with airlines and to serve as a watchdog of IATA.
home. The case was since taken to court and Juge Ruth Levhar Sharon issued a verdict in favor of David Malovani. The court also ordered Delta Air Lines to compensate Mr. Malovani for the prejudice he was caused.
6
David Malovani has since re-
time to read those established
viewed airline ticketing rules is-
guidelines, which air carriers are
sued by the International Air
supposed to follow. Therefore,
Transport
(IATA)
passengers are being taking ad-
and is convinced that airlines are
vantage of. To Mr. Malovani, air-
not playing by the book. In his
lines are literally breaking the
opinion, the vast majority of air-
rules and are simply and easily
line passengers do not take the
getting away with that.
Association
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Delta Air Lines Airbus A321 on Landing. Photo Credit: Delta Air Lines
Fast forward to August 2015, David Malovani has incorporated a non-profit organization in the State of Delaware, USA in order to promote straightforward, simpler and more honest ticketing rules, to support passengers in case of legal dispute with airlines and to serve as a watchdog of IATA.
The
International
Air
Transport Passengers Association (IATPA)
has
since
coalesced
more than 2000 people across 35
Airline Profits
countries.
as a counterbalance to airline lob-
Finally, an IATPA delegation
bying.
recently met with Jean-Louis
Airline Profits interviewed Mr.
Colson, Directorate General for
David Malovani and Ms. Ifat
Mobility
and
Aharoni, respectively Founder
Policy
and Online Marketing Manager
Officer Passenger Rights of the
of the International Air Transport
European Commission in Brus-
Passengers Association (IATPA –
sels, Belgium. Following that
www.iatpa.net) on January 27,
meeting, IATPA will be making
2016.
and
Giancarlo
Transport
Crivellaro,
recommendations to the European Union on how to improve air
ticketing rules and will be acting
February 2016
You can read the full interview on Airline Profits website.
Volume II—Issue 7
“ Gratitude is the healthiest of all human emotions. The more you express gratitude for what you have, the more likely you will have even more to express gratitude for. ―Zig Ziglar
Airline Profits
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Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Profile Air China: What Did the Airline Profits Sustainability Index Reveal?
In the December 2015 edition of Airline Profits, we presented our first review of Emirates Airline based the Airline Profits Sustainability Index (APSI). This is an integrated metric, which takes into account three dimensions: People, Performance and Agility. In this edition, we are presenting another airline review on the basis of the APSI: that of Air China.
Our analysis covered a period of 10 years, starting 2005 through 2014. We have also considered
pieces of information available on Air China’s website and other reputable
sources
such
as
Flightglobal at the time our review was conducted.
Based on the data available as of February 2016, our analysis revealed that on a scale of 1 to 10, Air China has an Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.2.
Based on the data available as of January 2016, our analysis revealed that on a scale of 1 to 10, Air China has an Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.2.
Creation and History Founded almost 30 years ago in 1988, Air China started opera-
In the next few lines, we are go-
ing to offer a breakdown of this rating. However, let’s begin with a brief overview of the company
tions the same year in July. The airline was born from the split of activities formerly covered by the Civil Aviation Authority of
by highlighting some key facts.
10
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China (CAAC). As such, the air-
line inherited a part of CAAC fleet of aircraft devoted to intercontinental flights. National flag
carrier of China, Air China is the second largest carrier in the country. As of September 2015,
Maiden flight for Air China’s 50th A330 Photo Credit: Airbus
Air China became the first airline
83 and 9 percent.
to offer a direct flight between
Canada.
Subsidiaries
and
Alliances
Beijing and Montreal, thanks to a codeshare agreement with Air
Ownership,
Air China currently has a hybrid Air China operates a mixed fleet
of 349 aircraft in-service composed of: 135 Boeing 737, 53 Air-
ownership structure: Over 57 percent of the equity is held by the
China
National
Aviation
Business Model, Network and
bus A330, 52 A321, 39 A320 and
Fleet
33 A319. The current in-service
An award-winning mainline car-
fleet has an average age of 6.8
rier, Air China currently serves
years. The airline also has 38 air-
179 destinations across all conti-
craft on order, including Airbus
At the present time, Air China
nents, of which Asia Pacific and
A350 and A320, Boeing 777 and
has a majority stake in several
Europe account respectively for
787 as well as COMAC C919.
local airlines (including Air Chi-
Holding
Company
(CNAHC).
The rest of equity shares belong to other investors.
na Cargo and Shenzhen Airlines)
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Profile and Ameco Beijing, a mainte-
nance provider (MRO), which is a joint-venture with Lufthansa. A member of Star Alliance, Air Chi-
na currently has close to 30 codeshare and commercial agree-
People Index
The Airline Profits People Index
The Agility Index has a 15%
weight in the overall APSI.
is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Air China has a relatively high Peo-
ple Index of 7.9. Five factors were considered in our calculation.
ments.
Summary Air China’s Airline Profits Sustainability Index of 8.2 is essen-
The People Index has a 45%
tially driven by the Performance
weight in the overall APSI.
Index, which in this case happens to be very high. This is mainly
Leadership, People and Opera-
due to the fact that over the past
tions Performance Index
decade (2005-2014), Air China
Jianjiang, in the role of President.
The Airline Profits Performance
was profitable nine years out of
And as of 2014, the airline em-
Index is based on a scale of 1 to
ten. In addition to that, the airline
ployed over 26,000 people.
10. Air China has a very high
has posted above average operat-
Performance Index of 9.1. Five
ing and net profit margins.
China uses Beijing Capital Inter-
factors were considered in our
With very high Performance and
national Airport as its main oper-
calculation.
relatively high People indices,
ational base. The airline also op-
The Performance Index has a 40%
our primary recommendation is
erates flights from Shanghai Pu-
weight in the overall APSI.
that Air China would do well to
Air China is currently led by Cai
Headquartered in Beijing, Air
dong, its second hub.
focus on improving its Agility index.
Agility Index Airline
Profits
Sustainability
Profile
As mentioned at the beginning of this review, our analysis covered a 10-year period ranging from
2005 to 2014.
If you like this article and are
The Airline Profits Agility Index
curious in finding out more,
is based on a scale of 1 to 10. Air
we invite you to stay tuned as we
China has an above average Agil-
share more airline profiles and
ity Index of 6.4. Seventeen factors
ultimately the first Airline Profits
were considered in our calcula-
ranking based on
tion.
in a future edition of Airline Profits.
12
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the
APSI
Leadership
“Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other.” — John F. Kennedy
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
“ In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. ― Eric Hoffer
Airline Profits
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@AirlineProfits
For more information about this program contact us at: www.airlineprofits.com/contact-us
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Perspective Does Qatar Airways Have a Point in Opposing the Idea of Consolidation of Gulf Carriers?
In an article by Reuters about the 2016 Bahrain Airshow, which appeared in the Arabian Business, Akbar Al Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways was reported to have rejected outright the suggestion of a consolidation of airlines in the Gulf region. Referring to the example of airlines in the USA, Mr. Baker stated: "I don't agree with consolidation, always done to extract capacity and jack up prices."
In this edition of Airline Profits,
Speaking of consolidation, there are three fundamental reasons why Gulf carriers many not entertain the idea, namely: ownership, strength of operations and financial performance.
we are reviewing some of the reasons why Gulf carriers may be
reluctant to merge. In speaking of consolidation of Gulf carriers, the assumption is mainly about some
mega airlines formed by Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways. These three airlines
combined currently operate close to 550 airplanes, which are about 6 years old on average. And as of
of
2014,
collectively
(ASK). Speaking of consolidation,
served 367 destinations across all
there are three fundamental rea-
continents and have flown in ex-
sons why Gulf carriers many not
cess of 88 million of passengers,
entertain the idea, namely: own-
400 billion of revenue passenger
ership, strength of operations
kilometers (RPK) and 509 billion
and financial performance.
16
they
have
available
seat
kilometers
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Ownership Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are all three state-owned air carriers. All these airlines appear to be a powerful instrument for economic growth for their respective States.
Singapore Airshow 2016. Qatar Airways A380 taxiing. Photo Credit: Airbus
As a matter of fact, all three airlines are growing, constantly and quasi
simultaneously
keeping
pace with each other in terms of investments in infrastructure (for
Strength of Operations Although there is at first a com-
monality in their fleet of airplanes to some extent, beyond their
geographical
proximity,
airlines are quasi steadily seeing double digit increase in total revenues every single year, since 2005. The only exception has been 2009, when both Etihad and
instance aircraft acquisition and
Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are
Qatar reported a slight decrease
airport expansion). Furthermore,
increasing traffic and capacity
in revenue compared to the pre-
there seem to be some tactful ri-
year after year, most probably to
vious year. As far as profits are
valry between Emirates Airline,
maintain a certain momentum
concerned, only Emirates Airline
Etihad Airways and Qatar Air-
and not to be left behind.
has consistently posted positive
ways. For instance, to-date it ap-
pears that there are no alliances
Financial Performance
earnings over the last decade.
Profit figures from both Etihad
nor codeshare agreements be-
In terms of finances, apart from
and Qatar over the same period
tween these airlines, each one
the Government being the owner
were not available for detailed
pursuing its own destiny.
and a strong backer, all three
comparison.
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Perspective
Summary Despite the fact that Etihad Air-
ways and Qatar Airways have not achieved the same level of profitability as Emirates Airline,
all three airlines are currently holding a strong position both
Unlike private or publicly-traded
that are deemed unprofitable,
commercial airlines whose pri-
while their private or publicly-
mary focus is to make a profit,
traded counterparts would not.
state-owned
Hence, struggling airlines will
airlines
usually
serve mainly to drive local as
welcome
consolidation
as
a
well as foreign traffic of people
means to attain operational effi-
and goods.
ciency and improve financial performance.
financially.
To the latter, profits are second-
And that is too strong a leverage
ary as long as the State-owners
And that is clearly not the case as
for any of them to want to bar-
can afford to provide the carriers
far as Emirates Airline, Etihad
gain for the sake of entering into
with the necessary financial back-
Airways and Qatar Airways are
a merger, which to the State-
ing when required.
concerned.
operationally
and
owners may appear to be an alienation of their autonomy, inde-
This explains why state-owned airlines will often serve routes
pendence and position of power.
18
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Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
“ Develop an attitude of gratitude, and give thanks for everything that happens to you, knowing that every step forward is a step toward achieving something bigger and better than your current situation. ― Brian Tracy
Airline Profits
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Available in Kindle Book on Amazon
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Performance Aeromexico: Is the Successful Turnaround Reaching its Limits?
In this edition of Airline Profits, we are focusing on Aeromexico, the largest airline in Mexico and a founding member of the airline alliance, SkyTeam. It’s worth highlighting that Andres Conesa, CEO of Grupo Aeromexico was elected Chairman of IATA in June 2015 for a one-year term. Mr. Conesa also served as President of the Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA).
As far as profitability is concerned, the past decade has been both a very challenging and re-
warding period for Aeromexico.
A Period of Red Ink After a year of low profitability in 2005, where Aeromexico bare-
After these four consecutive years of losses, which amounted to a total of 0.6 billion US dollars, Aeromexico made a spectacular comeback in 2010 with close to 200 million US dollars in net profits and a 9% margin.
ly broke even with thiny operating and net profit margins, respectively .41 and .32%, the air
A year later, the company was
carrier went through four consec-
able to narrow the gap by more
utive years of losses.
than half to a -7% net profit mar-
Net profits first went down more than 2% in the following year, before reaching an abyssal -16% in 2007.
22
gin. 2009 however saw another
loss with a slightly wider gap compared to the previous year. For that year, the profit margin
was down to more than -10%.
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The Turnaround After
these
four
consecutive
years of losses, which amounted to a total of 0.6 billion US dollars, Aeromexico made a spectacular comeback in 2010 with close to 200 million US dollars in net pro-
Aeromexico Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Photo Credit: Boeing
profits and a 9% margin. Since then, Aeromexico has continued to post profits. However,
the profit margins have decreased progressively year after
Aeromexico has maintained the
that although the airline has in-
profit stream in 2015, reporting
creased its total revenues consist-
net profits in excess of 60 million
ently since 2010, despite seasonal
US dollars with a net profit mar-
variations in the cargo sector,
gin slightly above 2.5%.
there seem to be some cost elements that are not yet fully under
year. Firstly, the margin dropped
almost by half below 5% in 2011, then slightly down below 4% the
control.
Summary
following year. The decrease in
Aeromexico has posted profits
profitability continued over the
for fiscal year ending December
following two years to reach
2015 for six consecutive years.
slightly below 2% in 2014.
Nonetheless, one can point out
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Airline Profits
February 2016
Performance
24
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Volume II—Issue 7
Courage
“Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one’s courage. ”
— Anais Nin
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Paradigm Kenya Airways: Could an Earlier Restructuring Have Prevented the Fiasco?
Kenya Airways has been until recently one of the leading airlines in Africa, but also one of the strongest, trusted and respected brands. In terms of financial performance, the airline has posted above industry profit margin for consecutive years. For instance, from 2005 to 2007, the average operating and net profit margins at Kenya Airways were respectively close to 12 and 8%.
Whereas, the airline industry was reporting only 2.7 and 1% operating and net profit margins over
the same period. Despite, annual variations, both passenger and cargo revenues grew on average about 9% over a period of ten years between 2005
There were at least three distinct occasions over the last decade that Kenya Airways’ gatekeepers seem to have failed to read the red writing on the wall.
and 2014.
The Disastrous Report So then, one might wonder what had happened. What caused the deep loss of nearly 300 million US dollars, which Kenya Airways reported in 2015?
Firstly, losing over 280 million
losses the airline had reported
US dollars is a big deal for any
over the preceding two years.
business concern. Secondly, as reported by local media, that rep-
resented the worst financial performance in Kenyan corporate history. Thirdly, that is more
than double the cumulative
26
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In that case, the real questions that
deserve
Kenya
Airways
stakeholders’ attention should be: How did that happen? Could this situation been anticipated and
Kenya Airways Boeing 787 Dreamliner. Photo Credit: Boeing
possibly avoided? Could a re-
to read the red writing on the
industry profit margins, sudden-
structuring plan have made a
wall. Otherwise, they saw that,
ly posted a deep loss for 2008.
difference at least two years earli-
but for unknown reasons did not
The results that followed over the
er? What mechanisms can be put
acknowledge or take that serious-
next three fiscal years, although
in place so that such a situation
ly as warning signals. First alert
positive, seemed to indicate that
does not repeat itself?
signal: 2008-2009 financial re-
the situation was not back to nor-
sults , second alert signal: 2011-
mal yet. The main reason being
2012 financial results and third
that the margins were much low-
Early Alert Signals
alert signal: 2012-2013 financial
er than usual, which is a good
Beyond the finger pointing exer-
results.
indication of rising costs.
First Alert Signal
Second Alert Signal
three distinct occasions over the
An airline that reported positive
The profit margins for the fiscal
last decade that Kenya Airways’
results for at least three consecu-
year ending in March 2012 sug-
gatekeepers seem to have failed
tive years along with higher than
gested that the situation was
cise, which is often easy to do after the fact, it may be worth noting that there were at least
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Paradigm
actually getting worse again. The
as the first loss posted in 2009
at least two years earlier, maybe
financial performance of the air-
was certainly a more vivid red
the fiasco could have been antici-
line was certainly not under con-
flag that urgent and drastic ac-
pated and avoided.
trol, especially considering that
tions were necessary to prevent a
fact that passenger, cargo and
great disaster ahead.
total revenues all grew significantly compared to the previous year (respectively 14, 22 and
13%). It appeared that some cost elements were out of control.
Third Alert Signal The huge loss reported for 2012,
which was nearly twice as much
28
Summary
With that said, the subsequent two losses appeared to be a logical consequence of the loss of
control over the airline’s financial performance.
For the pride of Africa, it is necessary to restore Kenya Airways
back to sustained profitability. And that is not just for the sake of Kenya, but even more so for
Had the “national mobilization”
the sake of African aviation as a
and subsequent actions taken in
whole.
2015, in an attempt to turn Kenya Airways around been considered
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For the pride of Africa, it is necessary to restore Kenya Airways back to sustained profitability. And that is not just for the sake of Kenya, but even more so for the sake of African aviation as a whole.
For that to happen, it is important to consider that plans, and turnaround plans for that matter, are as good as the people who are responsible for imple-
menting them. So a parting question, one that is critical to the future success of Kenya Airways is
as follows. Do the restructuring efforts include identifying key people who are capable of not
only implementing the proposed changes, but also and more importantly capable of perceiving
early signs of threat and act
Airline Profits
accordingly? Failing to do so
cannot solve a problem effective-
might leave the door wide open
ly without first changing the
for other surprises, which may
mindset that caused or favored
not
that in the first place.
necessarily
be
pleasant.
Paraphrasing Albert Einstein, we
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
“ The essence of optimism is that it takes no account of the present, but it is a source of inspiration, of vitality and hope where others have resigned; it enables a man to hold his head high, to claim the future for himself... ― Dietrich Bonhoeffer
Airline Profits
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Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Platform Airbus A320neo: What If Performance Exceeds Expectations Significantly?
If you are a regular reader of Airline Profits, you will recall that we have devoted much space to the Bombardier CSeries last year. In this edition, our focus will shift to the Airbus A320 new engine option, better known as the A320neo. Launched in 2006 as the A320Enchanced (A320E), arguably in response to the introduction of the CSeries by Bombardier, Airbus changed the name to A320neo four year later in 2010.
After a few delays, Airbus delivered
the
first
A320neo
to
Lufthansa on January 20, 2016.
The world renowned German airline became the launch customer after Qatar Airways post-
poned the acceptance of the aircraft to a later date. About two decades ago, no one was expect-
About two decades ago, no one was expecting the already successful A320 aircraft type to be “demoted” to ceo (current engine option) and be replaced by a more fuel-efficient and environmental friendly neo (new engine option).
ing the already successful A320 aircraft type to be “demoted” to ceo (current engine option) and
backyard, Airbus quickly react-
Besides, no one would have bet a
be replaced by a more fuel-
ed and announced a re-engined
dime on the probability of the
efficient
environmental
version of their existing type of
Airbus A320neo entering into
friendly neo (new engine option).
aircraft, using in large part the
service before the CSeries. But, it
However, following the move by
same engine designed by Pratt
actually did.
the Canadian aircraft manufac-
and Whitney, which was meant
Furthermore, Airbus themselves
turer, Bombardier to play in their
to power the Bombardier CSeries.
were not expecting to sell that
32
and
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Lufthansa takes delivery of first Airbus A320neo as launching customer. Robert Leduc, President of Pratt & Whitney, Carsten S pohr, Chairman of the Board and CEO of the Lufthansa Group, Airbus President and CEO Fabrice BrĂŠgier. Photo Credit: Airbus
many A320neo. Yet, they did so
cluding the recently announced
out to exceed expectation in ser-
overwhelmingly and at the ex-
firm order from Air Canada for
vice, one could objectively antici-
pense of its announced rival, the
45 CS300). On the other hand, as
pate that the all-new CSeries
all-new CSeries. Indeed, as of
if to widen the divide, Airbus are
would do better. However, until
January 2016, Airbus have sold
now tooting that the A320neo,
and unless the Canadian rival
3357 A320neo. And that repre-
delivered to Lufthansa less than
enters effectively into service and
sented an impressive
record,
three months ago, was actually
especially that Bombardier in-
which Airbus claimed to be their
performing slightly better than
creases the number of sales sub-
projected 15-year sales figure.
expected, in terms of fuel con-
stantially, the market perception,
On one hand, this is far in excess
sumption. Indeed, the new vari-
whether right or wrong, would
of its immediate rival, the Boeing
ant of the A320 was projected to
be that the Airbus A320neo has
737 MAX with 3072 units sold
burn about 15% less fuel than the
proven to be the best option,
and way ahead of the innovative
legacy aircraft. Now, if the re-
based on sales and actual perfor-
CSeries with only 288 units (in-
engined Airbus A320neo turned
mance.
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
Airline Profits
February 2016
Platform
34
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Volume II—Issue 7
Determination
“Failure will never overtake me if my determination to succeed
is strong enough. ” — Og Mandino
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
“ At times our own light goes out and is rekindled by a spark from another person. Each of us has cause to think with deep gratitude of those who have lighted the flame within us.
― Albert Schweitzer
Airline Profits
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“ We learned about gratitude and humility—that so many people had a hand in our success, from teachers who inspired us to the janitors who kept our school clean… and we were taught to value everyone’s contribution and treat everyone with respect.
― Michelle Obama
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Joy
“Joy is the simplest form of gratitude. ”
— Karl Barth
Airline Profits
February 2016
Volume II—Issue 7
“ ‘Thank you’ is the best prayer that anyone could say. I say that one a lot. Thank you expresses extreme gratitude, humility, understanding. ―Alice Walker
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