The Adjustment of Spanish Real State

The adjustment of the Spanish Real Estate Sector May 2011

Although struck by the crisis, Spain is a solid economy, showing signs of recovery

Spain resumes an upward trend In the closing months of 2010, the Spanish economy came back on track for recovery, with a q-o-q GDP increase of 0.2%, that sums up for a y-o-y increase of 0.6 %.

Year on year Variation

Quarter on quarter Variation

SPAIN

SPAIN

EMU

EMU

Source: Central European Bank, Statistics National Institue, and Bank of Spain

Sustained growth path for the future  Excluding construction, the demand is recovering: Private consumption grew in 2010 at an average of 1.2% (from -4.3% in 2009), investment in equipment grew on average 1.8% (from -24.8% in 2009), and external demand rose up to 1.1%.  GDP forecasts confirm a positive evolution, in line with other European economies.

GDP volume measures excluding construction Q-o-q growth rates

GDP Forecasts Forecasts

Spain Italy France Germany Euro area

Source: Eurostat

Spain Italy France Germany Euro area

OECD 0,9 1,3 1,6 2,5 1,7

2011 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.5

IMF 0,8 1 1,6 2,2 1,5

OECD 1,8 2,0 2,0 2,2 2,0

2012 EC 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.8

IMF 1,6 1,3 1,8 2 1,7

Source: IMF, OECD, European Comission

Strengths and political steps  Economic strengths and reforms lay the foundations of a sound and rebalanced growth for the Spanish economy.

Competitiveness  Infrastructures:  Spain has the biggest highway net in Europe and is the first European country and second in the world, behind China, in high speed railway line miles  47 airports in which 250 airlines operate  Quality:  First european country with the highest standard of living for expatriates  2nd most valued health system in europe (HSBC Expat Explorer Survey)  Performance:  2nd tourist destination in the world by revenue and 3rd for passenger arrivals  Business leadership

The Spanish housing sector: facts and features

Housing sector in Spain: main features  High proportion of ownership 85% vs. rent 13%.

 Market duality: main residence 67% vs. vacational housing 33% Homeownership rate (%)

Population by tenure status 2009 (%)

Empty or secondary housing (perhousing 1.000 hab) Empty or secondary (per 1.000 hab) 180 160 140 120 100

UK

Austria

Belgium

France

Ireland

Portugal

Spain

Italy

80 60 40

Spain

Source: Global Financial Stability Report IMF April 2011

Source: Eurostat 2009

Source: Eurostat 2004

U K EU SP A Av IN er ag e

0

G er m D an en y m a Fr r k an G ce re e H ce ol an d Ita Po l rt y ug al

Italy

Belgium

Portugal

Ireland

United Kingdom

United States

Finland

France

Denmark

Germany

20

Housing sector in Spain: main features  Preference for real estate assets: 80% of total assets.

 Social housing ratio below EU average : 11% vs 16% Value distribution of total household assets Fixed income securities 0,2% Investment funds 0,8% Private shares 0,9%

Other 0,7%

Proportion of social housing 2008 Proportion of social housing 2008

Main residence; 54,7%

Social housing 11%

Listed stocks; 1,0% Pension plans 2,0% Bank accounts; 5,3% Jewels, works of art, antiques 0,4%

Freelance business bussinesses; 9,2%

Source: Bank of Spain, Familiy Finance Survey 2008

Free market housing 89%

Other real estate assets; 24,8% Source: Ministry of Public Works

Price overvaluation  Economic literature available estimates a range of overvaluation degree between 13% to 30%  Following IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2008), the growth of house prices in Spain showed a lower overvaluation component than in other countries, and was largely based on fundamentals: Demographic and socioeconomic factors (immigration, household formation) Permanent real interest rate reduction effect, implying a permanent increase in asset valuations Houseprice pricegaps gaps (IMF House IMF 2008) (2008), 35,0%

Studies estimating the price overvaluation in the Spanish housing market

32,1% 29,2%

30,0% 25,0%

28,0%

Author and year 21,8%

20,0%

17,0% 16,2%

15,0%

11,8%

10,0% 5,0%

1,7%

N

Ita G er ly m an y

U K Fr an ce SP A Sw IN ed en

et h

Ir e

la n

er d la nd s

0,0%

Source: IMF

BBVA - Balmaseda et al . (2002) Bank of Spain - Ayuso and Restoy (2003) Bank of Spain - Martínez-Pagés and Maza (2003) IMF (2004) IMF (2005) OECD (2005) ECB (2006) Ayuso and Restoy (2006) IMF (2008) FEDEA - Sosvilla (2008)

Year of Estimated estimation overvaluation 2002 28% 2002 20% 2002 8-17% 2003 20% 2004 20-30% 2004 13% 2004 30% 2004 29% 2007 20% 2007 7-15%

Source: OECD Economic Surveys: Spain 2010

The housing sector has already got through most part of the adjustment

Construction activity shows a correction phase  Construction activity is still in the process of downward adjustment.  At the end of 2010 residential investment reached a 45% cumulative decrease from its maximum.

Relative size of the construction sector (Employment over total employment and residential investment over GDP) 13,6%

14% 12% 9,5%

10%

9,3%

9,2%

8% 6%

4,7%

4,7%

4% 2% 0% 1997

2007 Residential investment

Source: Statistics National Institute INE

2010 Employment

Price adjustment Housing prices have fallen over 15.4% from its maximum in the 1st Q 2008, and over 20% in real terms.

Rent to housing prices ratio shows narrow margin for additional adjustment (3% to 7%) Housing price price variation variation (Base Housing (Base1995) 1995)

Rent to housing prices ratio

â‚Ź/m2

Ratio of rent to housing prices

2500 500

2000 400

1500

300

Source: Ministry of Public Works

11 20

10 20

09 20

08 20

07 20

06 20

20

20

20

20

20

20

05

0

04

0

03

100

02

500

01

200

00

1000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Housing / Rent

Average 1997-2010

Source: Ministry of Public Works and Ministry of Economy and Finance

International comparison: deeper adjustment in Spain  House prices rose less in Spain than in other countries, but the difference in the decrease from the peaks reached is smaller.  Thus, comparatively, the degree of the adjustment in Spain is being harder than in other countries.

New housing price variation (Base 1996) 420 365 310 255 200 145

UK

Ireland

Spain

Source:ESRI, Ministry of Public Works and Department for Communities and Local Government.

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

90

Price adjustment: regional analysis  The national average may not be noteworthy, as housing market requires regional analysis - 16,3% - 16,9% - 16,7% - 15%

- 16% - 17% - 15,7%

- 19,2%

- 18%

Housing price decrease per province

- 21,9% - 19% - 21,5% -17,5%

1st Q 2008 – 1st Q2011

- 22,3% - 18,4% - 16%

- 16,7% - 15,7%

- 21,6%

- 21,1%

- 19,2%

> -20% -15% - -20% Source: Ministry of Public Works

- 15,4% - 22,2%

- 15,2% - 19,6%

- 19,7%

Provinces where price drop from the peak is above the average

Price adjustment: second-hand housing

Price adjustment: new housing (1st Q 2008 – 4th Q 2010)

(1st Q 2008 – 4th Q 2010)

-15.3% -17.6%

-16% -16.3%

-16.5% -16.8%

-15%

-17.2%

-15.2% -18% -16.3%

-20.3%

-20% -20,99%

-15,7%

-16%

-18%

-19.6% -17,2%

-20%

-16% -17.5% -22,4%

-20.2%

-15% -25%

-15%

-19.6% -15.4%

-16.6% -19.3% -16.4%

-16.2%

-21.5%

-18%

-16% -15.7% -24.5%

-20.2%

-16%

-21.2%

-18%

-19.5%

-18%

-17.2%

-15.6% -21.3%

-18%

-19%

Municipalities over 25,000 hab. with higher new housing price drop Castellón de la Plana -37.8%

 National average: -25%  Mediterranean coast provinces: -26%

Denia -29.8% Calpe -49.1%

Eivissa -29.4%

Villajoyosa -32.4% Torremolinos -28.3% Chiclana -28% La Línea de la Concepción -34.1%

San Roque -41.1%

Benalmádena -32.8% Marbella -40.1%

Estepona -35.3%

Ciutadella de Menorca -49.1%

Fuengirola -29.2%

Torrevieja -30.9% Mazarrón -33.1%

Puerto del rosario -28.9% Adeje -28.5%

Housing market tends to stabilization  The number of housing transactions (491,000) tends to recovery, partly due to fiscal incentives, partly because affordability indicators are once again at historically low levels.  Foreign demand is starting to react to price signals: ∆ 20% aquisition by expats resident in Spain in 2010.

Y-o-y housing housing transactions Affordability indicator (% of disposable % y-o-y transactionvariation variation (% Base 1996) income) 2004-2010 10,0%

5,9%

5,9%

60

5,0%

55

6,3% 0,0% 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

50

-5,0%

45

-10,0%

40

-15,0%

-12,4%

35

-17,8%

-20,0%

30 25

-25,0%

-32,6%

20

-30,0% -35,0%

Source: Ministry of Public Works

Source: Bank of Spain

Stock reduction  Stock of unsold houses has started shrinking in 2010 Net stock and stock variation Net stock

Stock reduction path

%Y-o-y variation

800

100 89,8% 90

700

80 600

70

700.000

60 600.000

500

48,3%

50 500.000 %

51,3%

400 688,044

40,1%

300

687,454

613,512

30 300.000 12,1%

20

413,642

200

200.000

10

273,363 100

40 400.000

-0,09%

195,184

100.000

0

102,825

0

0

-10 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2005

2006

2007

2008

Started housing construction

Source: Ministry of Public Works

2009

2010

2011

2012

2010 Finished housing construction

2013

Housing Stock: regional distribution % stock / number of total houses 1.9%

0.8%

2.5%

% stock / total stock 1.7%

1.2% 1.6%

0.4%

5.7%

1.3%

4,7%

0,77%

2.6%

2.5%

6,2%

2.3%

4.3%

15% 2.6%

7,4%

1,7%

0.5%

1.8% 0.7%

4.1%

7.8%

0.5%

19.3% 2.4%

2.8%

3.7%

4.3% 16.3%

2.5% >4 3-4 2-3 <2 Source: Ministry of Public Works

>10%

3.8%

5 - 10% 0 - 5%

5.9%

Investing in spanish real estate sector is safe

Strong legal and institutional framework Public Cadastre

Examination of the physical and legal condition of the house

Contract

Public deed

Urban Information Service

Public Land Registration Office

Legal security  Additional measures to consolidate legal security: • Compulsory town planning information provided by the Public Land Registration Office • Public access to property information in English language through UK embassy in Spain • Creation of the figure of the Town Planning and Environment Public Prosecutor

• Creation of specific police departments against urban development delinquency • Land Use Act to fight against urban development corruption

• Penal Code reform to prosecute urban development corruption

Thank you for your attention

www.fomento.gob.es/spanishrealestate