THE STATE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE STATE OF MONTANA
The State of Democracy in the State of Montana
A. Diagnosis
Montana is a two-party system by its Ranney Index score. The diagnosis of Montana’s democratic institutions is addressed and whether the electoral institutions encourage broad and equal access to voting for citizens regardless of their income, race, ethnicity, or geographic situation. The voting process in Montana is significant considering the State's national strategic importance as a state with an abundance of minerals, agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism that contribute to the national GDP.1 Demographically, Montana is a white-dominant state with one of the most rapidly growing economies. Trends and patterns in voter participation show that Montana records a high voter turnout compared to the U.S. national average.
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The Republican party has been the most dominant in Montana. Still, the Democratic party has been gaining popularity in the State, with residents supporting Democrats in lower offices but mostly backing up a Republican presidential candidate. The evaluation of the fundamental democratic institutions in Montana has shown inherent challenges with the voting system that should be addressed to streamline the voting process. Montana recently enacted changes in voter registration laws. Montana is enacting laws ending same-day registration and tightening Voter ID requirements to promote the credibility of the elections. However, these changes do not target a specific group; thus, fairness and equality are still exercised. Montana has hardly documented incidences of voter fraud. Although there was a recent outcry among presidential Trump supporters in the 2020 elections that the system would be marred by voter fraud, the claims were dismissed by a federal judge in Montana.2
The nomination methods in Montana are open and fair, and primaries are conducted to select the eligible candidate to participate in the elections. The campaign financing laws also restrict campaign funds contribution reporting, with limits set for each candidate. With the economy of Montana dominated agriculture mining, healthcare, forestry, service and energy production, there are dominant influencers in these industries who get elected, propose policies, and impact popular opinion.
The voting technology in Montana is streamlined to promote ease of voting, with assistance available for voters who may face challenges undertaking the process. There has not been any significant breach in the electoral system security, but the voting system lacks standardization in statute in terms of election information security and physical security. There is a need to ensure better adherence to the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) standards and guidelines alongside security standards advanced by the U.S. Elections Assistance
Commission to ensure the integrity of the elections. Redistricting in terms of establishing appropriate political boundaries is a process still in place by the Montana Redistricting Commission with the input of both Republican and Democratic legislators to ensure fair representation for all. 3
B. Election Process in the State of Montana
Montana is a constituent state of the United States with a large area and low population density. Montana ranks fourth among U.S. states in terms of size, like Alaska, Texas, and California is the three largest, respectively. The origin of Montana originates from Spanish for Mountain. Idaho borders Montana to the West, Wyoming to the south, north and South Dakota to the east, and Canada's provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan to the North. Montana is also the seventh least populous State and America's third least densely populated State. Montana is famous for its numerous mountain ranges in the Western region and prairie terrain and badlands to the west. There are also small mountain ranges spread throughout the State. The background of the State of Montana presents the national strategic importance of the State, demographic composition, participation in elections, party power identification political history. 4
National Strategic Importance
The State of Montana is known for its great abundance of minerals, mainly gold and silver. The abundance of minerals in the State makes Montana makes the State to be labelled as the "Treasure State" or "Bonanza State." The discovery of gold in Montana in 1862 influenced
3 A report of the Montana Legislature. 2021. “Security and management of Montana Election system.” Available at https://leg.mt.gov/lad/audit-reports
4 Montana Official State Website
many prospectors and development in the region. Montana is also known for agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism, supporting the State economy.5
Montana has been historically not been won by a Democrat since 1992, only remaining, but in the 2020 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump emerged as the winner by 56.9%. The senatorial elections were won by the Republican incumbent, Steve Daines, with 55% of the votes. The elected house of representatives' winner in the 2020 elections was Republican Matt Rosendale by 56.4%. On the other hand, the Governor position was won by Republicans Greg Gianforte by 54.4%.6
The 2020 elections were hotly contested between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Thus a republican win would be instrumental in facilitating the victory of Donald Trump. With three electoral votes in the electoral college, Trump won Montana by 56.9% to 40.5%, and a margin of 16.4% down from the 20.4% he had scored in the 2016 elections. The narrowing of the margin implied that the democrats had increased their popularity in Montana, which was an essential indication of the party's popularity in the region.7 Montana State was a target for the Republicans. A loss for Republicans in Montana would mean a loss of the three electoral college votes, further narrowing the possibility of a win for the republicans.
Demographic Composition
The overall population for Montana is 1,005,141million people (Montana Official State Website, 2021). The State of Montana is predominantly a white state which comprises 88.5% of the population. On the other hand, 6.36% are Native Americans, whereas Asians and other races represent the rest. In Montana, Blacks are a minority population representing 0.43 percent of
5 Ibid
6 Montana Legislative Branch. “Montana Legislature detailed bill information.” 2020 Available at https://leg.mt.gov/bill-info/
7 Montana Official State Website, 2021.
black residents, representing 944,632 residents.8These racial and ethnic composition is of political significance as the republicans dominate the State.
Montana's chief economic characteristics include the primary sector, incorporating agriculture, forestry, mining, and energy generation. An estimated one-third of Montana's workforce works in the service sector. The outdoor recreation industry is becoming a critical income generation avenue in Montana, whereas high-technology sectors are also coming up in the State.9 The unemployment rate in Montana remains lower than the national average. Although the State's GDP of $53 Billion is the third-lowest in the United States, Montana has one of the most growing economies averaging 3.2% annual growth.10 In addition to the primary industries, other economic activities prevalent in the State include microwaving, mineral resources, tourism, and manufacturing (Greene & Haber, 2019).
8 Ibid par. 4
9 Melissa J. Lyon, and Brent D. Chicken. "Montana." ONE J 5 (2019): 175.
10 Montana Legislative Division. “Security and maintenance of Montana Election Systems.” 2020
Montana is viewed as being largely rural than urban. The U.S. Census Bureau figures indicate that Montana's population has been steadily increasing as its economy thrives in terms of population growth. The State's growth is most dominant in towns, and the average growth rate is at 3.8% per annum. Significant issues of importance to the State of Montana voters include the coronavirus pandemic and climate change.11 The economic downturn associated with the pandemic and climate change issues is being addressed as pertinent aspects impacting Montana's primary economy, agriculture, and manufacturing.
Participation
This graph shows that voter participation in Montana has been significantly high compared to the national participation averages. Montana had the highest voter turnout in the 2008 elections, and the State, a Republican stronghold, showed Democrat Barack Obama trailing narrowly behind Republican John McCain. The high voter turnout was influenced by the closely contested elections between the Republican and Democratic candidates. 12
11 Dian Ding, Jia Xing, Shuxiao Wang, Kaiyun Liu, and Jiming Hao. "Estimated contributions of emissions controls, meteorological factors, population growth, and changes in baseline mortality to reductions in ambient PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-related mortality in China, 2013–2017." Environmental health perspectives 127, no. 6 (2019): 067009.
12 Montana Official State Website. “About Montana.” 2021 Available at https://mt.gov/
In 2020, the voter turnout for the State of Montana was 81.33% in presidential elections. There are discrepancies in turnout for people of different racial and ethnic backgrounds. Montana is a predominantly white state. Thus most participants in the election were whites supporting the republican party, hence the party's dominance in this State. Helena (2020) observed that Montanans cast a record number of votes in the 2020 general elections. The turnout is partly attributed to the closely contested elections that could change the political direction of both the State and the country.13 The events of the Covid-19 pandemic restricted physical voting, and thus people voted via mail. Montanans had not favoured a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992, when Bill Clinton garnered 38% of the votes, and his predecessor Bush had garnered 26%
13 Helena, M. “Montana voters cast record number if ballots in this election”. 2020. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-general-elections-elections-montana10f55bb70a42869b9d752953199ce70c
of the votes (Putcha et al., 2020). Montana has been significantly a predominantly Republican state, controlling positions in almost all states.
Party Power identification
Montana has been historically a Republican state, but the competitiveness of the democratic party has been increasing in the region. Trends indicate that Montana supports Republican presidential candidates but often elects Democrats for other offices. For instance, in 2004, Montana was backed by Republican President George W. Bush with over 20 percent but elected a Democrat governor. The population is highest in the urban regions of Montana, with more conservative communities in the rural Regions supporting Republican candidates.
Montana is yet to achieve a balance of power between the democrats and the Republicans, but the democratic support has been increasing steadily, as shown in the figure above. In both the 2020 and 2016 Presidential elections, the Republican candidate Donald Trump won Montana's elections by 56.2% and 56.9%, respectively. Trumpism, identity politics, and the struggle for racial justice significantly impacted the campaigns as Montana's Republican identity
was more affirmed during this period. The power and support for the Republican party increased following the hotly contested 2020 elections between Trump and Biden.14
The republican party controls Montana's governorship, State, and legislature. There is no significant percentage of "swing" or independent voters in Montana. Nonetheless, there are party organizations influential players in national politics. For example, the Montana Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the State of Montana and one of the two major political parties in the State (Helena, 2020). On the other hand, the Montana Republican Party is the affiliate of the Republican party in Montana. The party is headquartered in Helena and advocates for the party and coordinates campaigns and party activities in the region.
In Montana, the local political actors such as charismatic party chairmen, governors, or senators do not influence the outcomes of elections. Montana has been a predominantly Republican state, and the chairmen, governors, and senators have been extensively involved in grassroots lobbying and campaigning for the party candidates.15 Charismatic party leaders for the Democrats and Republicans in Montana have played a strategic role in lobbying for the party and influencing its candidates' victory in the region.
Political history
Montana's political history since 2000 shows a dominance of the Republican party, winning in all the subsequent presidential elections. Notwithstanding, the Democratic party has also been gaining popularity in the region, and its support in Montana has increased. The Democratic support in Montana was highest in 2008 at 47.3% against Republican representation at 49.5. In 2016, 2018, and 2020, the Republican party won the Montana Presidential elections. The Republican dominance was highest in 2016, at 56.2%, and the Democratic Party garnered
14 Christi, J. “Montana post-election analysis”.2021 Retrieved from https://sosmt.gov/elections/results/
15 Ibid par.3
38.5% of the votes in presidential elections.16 Montana's voting in state elections shows that the State remains predominantly Republic despite the Democratic party taking root in the region.
From the preceding, it is evident that Montana is a strategic state of the United States despite its low population density. Montana has a scenic landscape and deposit of minerals, including gold and silver. Montana's economy is supported by primary industries such as farming, trade, and manufacturing. The region's population has been steadily growing and its economic prospects. In terms of political history, Montana has been predominantly Republican, but the influence of the democratic party in the region has also been steadily increasing.
C. Some Key Democratic Institutions.
1. Voting Laws.
In Montana, the voting policies are enacted and enforced at the state level. The guidelines cover requirements for registration of voters, provisions for early voting, registration for online voting, and the conditions under which Americans can cast their ballot. Montana allows early voting but does not permit absentee voting, and Online voter registration is not allowed.
To register as a voter in Montana, an applicant must be a U.S. citizen and a resident of the State of Montana for at least 30 days before the elections. The eligible voter should also be 18 years and older by the election day. People serving a felony sentence, those in penal institutions, and those declared of unsound mind are not eligible to vote. Typically, the regular deadline for registering as a voter is 30 days before the elections. Citizens can file their registration at their respective county office or mail it to the country election administrator. Late registration can be made at the county election offices or other designated locations till noon on the day of the election. Montana does not practice automatic voter registration and permits online
voter registration. Same-day registration is not allowed in Montana, and no proof of citizenship is required for voter registration.17
Recently, Montana's access to the ballot has been restructured by state legislation. There are various types of laws in Montana regarding registration and going to the polls. As outlined in the Montana Legislative Branch (2021), Montana enacted laws ending same-day voter registration and tightening voter ID requirements. Montana’s governor Greg Gianforte approved two restrictive voting measures to protect voter fraud. Since 2006, Montana has been allowing eligible voters to register and cast a ballot on election day. Still, amendments have been under the new law, which specifies that Montanans will have until noon the day before an election to register to vote.
Montana now has more stringent voter ID requirements in the second bill; the amendments enforce stricter measures for individual identification for voting. Acceptable identification photo ID for voting includes Montana's driving license, government-issued photo ID, tribal ID, or the last four digits of their social security number. Montana has had a longstanding history of holding secure, transparent elections regulations. Nonetheless, critics argue threat the newly revised voting laws are likely to bring unwarranted restrictions to the ballot box, particularly the photo ID requirements, but this is aimed at ensuring the integrity of Montana's elections. 18
Montana has not had many cases of election fraud. One documented election fraud type reported in 2011 was the Fraudulent use of Absentee Ballots, a criminal case conducted by Alan Lloyd Skari. He was found guilty of "limits on voting rights”. 19In the 2020preseidential
17 Szydlowski, A. V. "The Legal Status of Election Officials in the State of Montana." Legal Concept 18, no. 3 (2019): 137-144.
18 Miller, Brian J. "The Right to Participate, the Right to Know, and Electronic Voting in Montana." Mont. L. Rev. 69 (2008): 371.
19 The Heritage Foundation. 2012. “Election fraud Cases.” 2021. Available at https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud/search?state=MT
elections, President Donald Trump's re-election campaign and Republican Party groups block Montana counties from holding elections mail, claiming that the system could be marred by voter fraud. However, a federal judge in Montana dismissed the case, citing that they should concede as they could not point to a single voter fraud case in Montana in the past 20 years.20
2. Methods of Nomination.
Nominations in Montana are held through primary nominations to narrow the prospective candidates for a given elective office to determine the political party representative in the ballot box. In party primaries, the voters select a candidate to be the party nominee for a corresponding office. In Montana, voters participate in their respective political party primary of their preferred candidate once the primaries are open. The winner in the primaries is the candidate who receives the most votes cast for the respective position, even when they do not win a majority of the votes cast.
Congressional and state-level nominations are conducted in open primaries to select partisan candidates in Montana. In Montana, voters voluntarily engage in party primaries of their choice, meaning that the primaries in Montana are open. The winner in the primaries is the candidate who receives the highest number of votes for the respective office, even if they do not get a majority of the votes cast. Montana nomination laws stipulate that the respective political parties must nominate their candidates to contest in the election, except for presidential electors,
in the primaries,
Participation in primary elections or other nomination processes for local, state, and national office is conducted for Democrats and Republicans. The elective offices for which parties in Montana must conduct primaries to nominate candidates to participate in party
20 AP News. (2020). Judge rejects Trump challenge to Montana’s mailed ballots. Available at https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-donald-trump-primary-elections-general-elections10fb2c649ad871273e54ac80ea5d443b
elections include 11 state executive officers, two senators, one representative, 150 state legislators, and local offices who vary based on municipality.21
3. Campaign Finance
The campaign finance requirements in Montana outlines how much money the candidate may receive from individuals and organization, the reporting and process of reporting the contributions, and how much individuals, organizations and political agencies may contribute to the campaigns. Montana campaign laws apply to the primary contributors and their party organizations and nonprofit entities that may seek to influence the elections through independent expenditure or advocacy.
Regarding the financial support available for candidates in primaries and general elections in this State, only candidates seeking party nominations to the president's office are eligible to receive primary campaign funds. However, to be eligible, the presidential candidate must prove broad-based support by the public. The candidate must also raise over $5,000 in at least 20 respective states. 22
The economy of Montana is dominated by agriculture, mining, healthcare, forestry, service and energy production. Considering the dominant industries in Montana, there are typically significant imbalances in funding because of the involvement of specific sectors such as fossil fuels or high-tech. Influencers in Montana are powerful players who play an essential role in helping candidates get elected, propose policies, influence romantic ideas, and impact popular opinion. These influencers include politicians, lobbyists, advisors, donors, corporations, industry groups, nonprofit organizations and other agencies.
21 Ballotpedia. 2021. “Voting in Montana.” Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Montana
22 Ballotpedia, 2021
In Montana, there is no single primary agency tasked with the primary role of regulating campaign financing. However, the Office of the Commissioner of Political Policies in Montana, set out in 1975, is responsible for investigating ant complaints on election law financing complaints and ensuring the laws are enforced in collaboration with the attorneys. Candidates must file preliminary financial reports regarding contribution as part of the regulation.23
The restriction of the campaign financing campaigns includes contribution limits as they apply to respective individuals and groups in Montana. The list was revised in December 2017
4. Technology of voting
To vote in Montana, the individual must be registered as a voter as provided in the law, be aged 18 years and older, be a U.S. citizen, and have lived in Montana for at least 30 days. The voter registration card lists and confirms the voter's polling location in the actual voting process.
If voters have misplaced their card, they can call their election administrator to verify where to vote for federal and state elections or confirm online on the My Voter Page.24 Once the voter verifies their identity, they sign the precinct register and are issued a ballot to cast their vote.
Montana's paper ballots are tallied using hand count or digital scan tabulation. Generally, there has not been any significant breach in Montana's voting system. However, following the 2020 presidential elections, Montana Republican Lawmakers have been calling out for election security review.25 The effort led by GOP legislators has been viewed as pushing for false theories and the impression of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential elections, as reported by the Montana State News Bureau.26 At present, Republicans hold a twothirds majority in the legislature.
The legislators proposing the reviews argue that their constituents have reached out to them asking about Montana elections security so that all local Montanans can have total faith in the election system at the federal, state, and local levels. As reported by the Associated Press, the push to review Montana’s voting system reflects similar efforts by Republicans in states won by President Joe Biden, such as Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.27 However, court judges have dismissed claims of vulnerabilities exploited in the election systems amidst the Montana House Minority leader, Democrat Kim Abbott citing that the Republicans provide no evidence of any problems with Montana’s election system.
The Montana voting system is not deemed vulnerable to cyberattacks and malfunctions. Nonetheless, the system lacks standards in statute in terms of the election information security and physical security adhering to the NIST standards and guidelines alongside security standards
24 Montana Secretary of State. “How to vote.” 2021. Available at https://sosmt.gov/elections/vote/#how-to-vote
25 Montana Secretary of State, 2021
26 Montana voters cast record number if ballots in this election”. 2020
27 Associated Press. 2021. “Montana redistricting chair finds faults in partisan maps.”
advanced by the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission. Based on the Information Systems
Audit report on the security and maintenance of Montana, whereas there has not been a breach in the voting system, there are no definitions for the scope of election security using federal election security best practices and National Institute standards.28
5. Redistricting and gerrymandering
In terms of drawing new political boundaries, redistricting in Montana is a challenge the State is facing. The Montana redistricting commission is working to devise a new map to divide the State into two congressional districts.29 According to the Commission’s nonpartisan chair, all the nine maps proposed by the Republicans and democratic Commissioners are disputed; thus, new redistricting is needed. The disputes in redistricting Montana arise from the argument that the State's population is not equally divided between districts. The goal of redistricting is to achieve full representation of vulnerable counties cut off from the rest of the districts. On the other hand, some of the previous maps have been faulted for putting all the seven Native reservations in a single district rather than ensuring robust Native American contingencies in both districts. 30
The suggested changes in redistricting Montana aim to provide equality for the parties, despite Montana's tilt. Democratic party proponents argue that the Democrat strongholds, Missoula and Bozeman, be put in the same district. Montana is yet to establish a common ground on redistricting the region without creating unnecessary competition between regions.
In Montana, the partisan distribution of seats in the legislature seems fair considering the distribution of partisanship in the electorate. The Montana Redistricting Commission achieves
28 A report of the Montana Legislature. 2021. “Security and management of Montana Election system.” Available at https://leg.mt.gov/lad/audit-reports
29 Associated Press. 2021. “Montana redistricting chair finds faults in partisan maps.”
30 Ballotpedia. 2021. “Voting in Montana.” Retrieved from https://ballotpedia.org/Voting_in_Montana
redistricting, but this is achieved with the input of Republican and Republican legislators who have essential information in influencing the redistricting process.31 Redistricting is achieved once there is consensus among the party members. The role of the Montana Redistricting Commission is an oversight role, whereas the respective political parties also give their input regarding the process.
6. Innovations
There are various innovations in Montana's election process, demonstrated by multiple factors as outlined. Montana is listed as a two-party system based on the Ranney Index score. The Ranney index is a measure of party control of state government and not the competitiveness in arty elections. In terms of proportional representation, such as Maine's rank Choice voting, Montana is not included in Ranked-choice voting usage in the United States as of 2020. A ranked-choice voting system is whereby an election system is such that the voters rank the candidates based on preference on the ballot.32 For example, if a candidate wins most firstpreference votes, they are declared the winner. However, the ranked-choice voting approach is not applicable in the context of Montana.
Another perspective of consideration innovations in Montana's electoral system is the Multiparty and two-plus party system, facilitated by New York's Wilson-Pakula law. This law is an authorization by the political party to a candidate not registered to party to contest in a given election. In Montana, the Wilson Pakula law is not applicable. This innovation could be considered in Montana, whereby candidates not registered to an individual political party are allowed to contest as the party's chosen candidate.
31 Associated Press. 2021. “Montana redistricting chair finds faults in partisan maps.”
32 Ballotpedia. 2021. “Voting in Montana.”
Montana can enter into referenda to amend statutes or legislative bills related to the election system. The referenda will allow public participation in matters related to the electoral process. Besides, the initiation of special voter registration drives can be resourceful in influencing public involvement in the electoral process and creating awareness among the public on the electoral process. Finally, special efforts to have citizens counted in the census are essential in facilitating the redistricting process through population counts to establish the most effective boundaries that ensure inclusion for all communities.
E. Conclusion
The democratic institutions in Montana are healthy, with significant measures to promote democracy. The analysis has addressed the reforms at the state level in Montana that might help protect citizens' political equality and right to affect political decisions. The investigation has shown that Montana is a two-party system by its Ranney Index score. The Republican party has been the most dominant in Montana, but the Democratic party has gained popularity in the State. The evaluation of the fundamental democratic institutions in Montana has shown inherent challenges with the voting system that should be addressed to streamline the voting process. The identified issues include recent changes in voting laws ending same-day registration and tightening Voter ID requirements to promote the credibility of the elections. There are also issues with redistricting the political boundaries for equal representation and reforms to ensure the security of the voter election system from cyberattacks. Additional innovations have been outlined to make the election process fair where each citizen has equal participation rights.
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