Study Guide > BM7102 MODULE GUIDE BM7102 Business Decision Making Module Outline 2018-19 Semester 1

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BM7102 Business Decision Making Module Outline 2018-19 Semester 1 Contains: Welcome Module Content Module Programme Recommended Reading Assessment Briefs

The School of Business and Technology www.glos.ac.uk

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WELCOME If you are doing this module, you undoubtedly are interested in how the world of business works. This is a very complicated area with many problems ranging from setting selling prices to forecasting the revenues/profits. Managers have to address a wide variety of questions like this on a continuing basis. It is easy to be knowledgeable about such a wide range of activities. However, managers are often perceived as "experts" in their fields and are expected to come up with good decisions.

The emphasis, evident from the module title, is on decision making, the techniques and tools that help managers use to make better decisions. The key focus areas for this module are: 1. decision making using relevant techniques and tools 2. the ethical implications of choices made The main aim of this module is to make you a better manager by enabling you to understand and apply managerial decision making techniques effectively. By knowing the assumptions and approximations on which decision making models are constructed, you will be aware of their limitations and the dangers of applying their results without wider consideration of their business context.

The module will be taught in ten (10) three (3) hour sessions. Each session will consist of discussions, activities based on case studies, student presentations and evaluations of relevant expert publications. The Moodle site will be used to disseminate journal articles and post session tasks that must be completed either in learning sets or by individual students.

It may look obvious but not engaging with the learning activities of the module will mean that students will struggle to understand and master the technical and complex elements of the module and hence may not be able to transfer the intended knowledge and skills when solving business problems. Each student will need access to the Microsoft Excel software and to a certain degree.

Module Tutor

Co-Tutor

Sri Tellapragada OX-GB238 Email:sritellapragada2@glos.ac.uk Telephone: 01242714355

Charles Afriyie OX-BG238 Email: cafriyie@glos.ac.uk Telephone: 01242714106

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MODULE CONTENT Module Title

Business Decision Making

Module Code

BM7102

Module Tutor

Sri Tellapragada

School

School of Business and Management

CAT Points

15

Level of Study

7

Pre-requisites

None

Co-requisites

None

Restrictions Cannot be taken with MBA 402 Brief Description The module aims to provide students with an applied understanding of business decision making by focusing on behavioural and management science approaches. It utilises these two approaches to evaluate the reality of practical decision making. The role of intuitive versus analytical approaches to decision making will also be explored and how approaches to Decision Making can influence sustained development and innovation in business.

This module incorporates CIPD 7SBL LO5 Indicative Syllabus

1. The decision making process 1. Ethical decision making 3. Decision making in a financial context 4. Information and statistics in decision making

Learning Outcomes

A student passing this module should be able to: 1.Develop a critical understanding of business decision models and approaches, which facilitate business decision

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making

2.Explore the factors that could influence decision making, with a focus on ethical decision making 3.Critically analyse and evaluate the appropriate data requirements for specific decision making situations and understand how decision making approaches can promote creativity and innovation in organisations 4. Structure data for use in a range of applications software.

5.Analyse and interpret data so as to enable management decisions using appropriate graphical and statistical techniques 6.Analyse and interpret data so as to enable management decisions using appropriate financial techniques 7. Critically evaluate findings and communicate them effectively to management Learning and Teaching Activities

Scheduled learning and teaching activities: 30 hours: Include lectures, seminars, discussion, practical classes Guided independent study: 120 hours: Self-directed study

Assessment (For further details see the Module Guide)

001: 100% Coursework: Individual, standard written: 3000 words

Special Assessment Requirements Indicative Resources

The current reading list can be found in the Module Guide, which your lecturer should make available via Moodle.

Version date: 9 Sep 2016

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MODULE PROGRAMME Week

Topic/Activity

1

Decision making concepts

Learning outcome(s ) covered 1&3

and challenges

Pre-reading references

Albright and Winston Chapter 1 Pfeffer and Sutton Chapters

Decision making and uncertainty Statistical decision making Statistical decision making Forecasting

3&7

1& 6 4&6 4&6

Albright & Winston Part 5

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Forecasting Optimisation in decision making Optimisation in decision making Ethical decision making

1&2 Albright & Winston Part 2 Teale Chapter 2 Albright & Winston Part 3 Albright & Winston Part 3 Albright & Winston Part 4 Teale Chapter 7 Albright & Winston Part 4 Albright & Winston Part 5

2

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Ethical decision making

2

Teale, Dispenza, Flynn & Currie Chapter 14 Teale, Dispenza, Flynn & Currie Chapter 14

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5&7 5&7 1&6

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RECOMMENDED READING Essential Textbook Albright, S.C. & Winston, W.L. (2017) Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making, 6th edition, Cengage Learning.

Other Textbooks: VanGundy, A. B. (1988) Techniques of Structured Problem Solving, New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.

Pfeffer, J. & Sutton, R.I. (2006) Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths & Total Nonsense: Profiting From Evidence-Based Management, Harvard Business School Press.

Teale, M., Dispenza, V., Flynn, J. & Currie, D. (2003) Management Decision Making: Towards an Integrative Approach, Financial Times Press.

Rousseau, D. M. (2012) The Oxford Handbook of Evidence-Based Management, Oxford University Press.

Ragsdale, C. T. (2014) Spreadsheet Modelling & Decision Analysis: A Practical Guide to Business Analytics, 7th edition, Cengage Learning (ISBN 10: 1-285-418689) Evans, J. R. (2014) Business Analytics, Pearson New International Edition, Pearson (ISBN 10: 1-292-03973-6) Your attention is drawn to a range of reading materials that will be made available through the Moodle site of the module.

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ASSESSMENT REQUIREMENTS 1. Module code and title

BM7102 Business Decision Making

2. Module tutor

Sri Tellapragada

3. Tutor with responsibility for this Assessment

Sri Tellapragada

4. (Element number), Weighting, Type and Size of Assessment

001: 100% Coursework: Standard: 3000 words or equivalent) You will be penalised according regulations if you exceed the size limit.

5. Submission deadline

to

Scheme

19th December 2018 Your attention is drawn to the penalties for late submission; see Undergraduate Modular Scheme / Postgraduate Modular Scheme Handbook.

6. Arrangements for submission

Electronic submission via Student Records Online.

•You are advised to submit work electronically by midday (British local time) to ensure that technical support is available should you encounter any issues with the electronic submission process.

•The maximum size for an individual file to be uploaded is 50MB. •You should use the following convention for naming your file: 'Bloggs_J_ s0123456_BM7102_A1' (for example, Joe Bloggs –student number s0123456 – submitting a file for AC5005 assessment task 1). You are also advised to add this information to the header section of your submitted document.

•Information about electronic submission, including a 7

7. Date and location for return of work 8. Disabled students

9. University Regulations for Assessment

set of Frequently Asked Questions, is available at https://infonet.glos.ac.uk/departments/adu/ema/Page s/emastudents.aspx - 20 working days via Student Records Online Alternative assessment arrangements may be made, where appropriate, for disabled students. However, these will only be implemented upon the advice of the Disability Advisor. Disabled students wishing to be considered for alternative assessment arrangements must give notification of the disability (with evidence) to the Disability Advisor by the published deadlines.

All assessments are subject to the Academic Regulations for Taught Provision. These include regulations relating to Errors of Attribution and Assessment Offences. In exercising their judgement, Examiners may penalise any work where the standard of English, numeracy or presentation adversely affects the quality of the work, or where the work submitted exceeds the published size or time limits, or where the work fails to follow normal academic conventions for acknowledging sources.

10. The requirements for the assessment You have been assigned the four tasks below in your new role as a business analyst.

Write a report to your line manager including responses to each of the tasks. Where calculations are required, include these in an appendix.

TASK ONE Using appropriate techniques and relevant software, forecast the next five years’ annual sales revenue for Rolls Royce Plc. Your presentation should include the following:  

Justification of the forecasting techniques used Critical analysis of the forecasts produced

[10 marks] [10 marks]



Audit trail of the sources of data and relevant computations (in an appendix).

[5 marks]

TASK TWO FreshVeggies Limited has introduced an online outlet that distributes sustainable meat to selected restaurants within its county. Orders of meat must be sent on Friday to meet the following week’s demand. The average price is £50 per unit at a cost to FreshVeggies Limited of £35. Excess orders carry inventory holding cost of £2 per unit whilst stock outs will mean missed profits from sales. Likely demand for next 8

week, which is the same as the permitted order quantities by suppliers are as follows: 100, 150 or 200. You can assume where necessary that the order quantities have associated probabilities of 0.4, 0.3 and 0.3 respectively.

Advise the management of FreshVeggies Limited on the following: 

Discuss the role that attitudes to risk play in the selection of decision criteria. [10 marks]



Which order quantity should be selected based on the maximax criterion? [3 marks]



Which order quantity should be selected based on the Laplace criterion? marks]



Which order quantity should be selected based on the expected monetary value criterion? [4 marks]



What is the expected value under perfect information?

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[5 marks]

TASK THREE A strategic marketing review conducted at Innovatum Medics Limited has highlighted the need to adopt new medical equipment in all of its medical facilities in the country.

The table below presents the capital requirement and expected net present values over the next three years for each of five needed equipment: Equipment

NPV in $000s

Loupes Dopplers Medical Fridges ECG Machines Living Aids

140 180 120 80 200

Capital Required (in $000s) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 70 20 25 85 40 15 60 20 20 30 30 15 50 15 10

The board of directors have confirmed that budgeted funds of £150,000 per annum will be available for this project. Given the nature of services provided, if Loupes are obtained, then Dopplers will be required (and vice versa). The board of directors have also stated that at most ECG Machines or Livings Aids could be obtained in any recommendations but not both.

Required: Create a model that determines the set of equipment that would enable Innovatum Medics Limited to achieve the maximum net present value whilst recognising the constraints above. Explain the analytical processes you have used in arriving at the solution.

[25 marks] TASK FOUR 9

Create an ethical decision making framework for the United Kingdom’s National Health Service (NHS). Your presentation should include the following: The ethical decision making framework [10 marks] A demonstration of how the framework will be useful to specific NHS staff marks] [Total marks: 100]

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11. Assessment Your assignment will be graded using the assessment grid on page 11 and 12.

12. Special instructions Your attention is drawn to the University Regulations for Assessment Section 7 Careful referencing of sources is vital when making use of the work of others. You are expected to employ the referencing conventions recommended in the Field/Course. These conventions apply to information taken from internet sources, as well as books, journals and lectures. These are some of the points you should check before submitting your work:     

are all direct quotations, from both primary and secondary sources, suitably acknowledged (placed in quotation marks or indented)? have you provided full details of the source of the quotation, according to the referencing convention used in the Field? have you acknowledged the source of ideas not your own, even if you are not quoting directly from the source? have you avoided close paraphrase from sources? (Check that you are not presenting other people’s words or phrasing as if they are your own.) if you have worked closely with others in preparing for this assessment, is the material you are presenting sufficiently your own?

If you are unsure of the way to reference properly, seek advice from a member of staff before you submit the assessment. In submitting your work for assessment you are making a statement that it is your own work, it has not been submitted for any other assessment, and it does not infringe the ethical principles set out in the University’s Handbook for Research Ethics.

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Basis Demonst rates a critical understa nding of the models, concepts and contents of relevant literature on organisa tional problem solving

Ability to structure , analyse and interpret data using relevant

%

50 %

30 %

0- 29 Nonsubmission; not answering the assigned tasks; does not refer to appropriate literature or attempt to identify relevant organisatio nal problems

30 - 39 Significant factors and their implications for the organisation not adequately identified or linked to the options available. No references to relevant models, concepts and theories.

40-49 Correctly identifies some of the main factors and their implications for the entity with fair discussion, not always logical, of the options. Some reference to relevant literature and concepts.

50-59 Reasonable identification of the main factors and their implications for the entity, and adequate breakdown of how they relate to the options, with generally logical and clear arguments.

Uses relevant concepts, models and theories in identifying and presenting arguments.

Familiar with the literature.

60-69 Main relevant factors and their implications for the entity identified, with good and comprehensive breakdown and links to the options, with well-developed argument.

Situates arguments in relevant literature using a broad range of models, concepts and theories.

70 – 79 Excellent identification of the main factors and their implications for the organisation, and full and thorough evaluation of the options, with very well developed arguments and effective linking of the topics.

Justifies the selection of relevant theories, models and concepts in the development of original solutions to organisational problems.

80 - 89 An outstanding fit between selected organisation and decision needs with research informed justifications; critically reflects on relevant decision making concepts, models and their efficacy in solving the identified organisational problems.

90 - 100 Faultless identification of the main factors and their implications for the organisation , and full and thorough evaluation of the options, with balanced arguments and effective linking of the topics.

Outstanding synthesis of seminal theories, models, concepts to prioritise variables, solutions and risks.

Nonsubmission; Incoherent contents; no attempt to use software and

Not able to collect and process quantitative and qualitative data in a clear manner

Identifies and analyses data using software where appropriate without significant errors.

Presents analysis of data using a range of techniques and or software discussing results and its

No omissions or errors in data analysis and shows creativity in interpretation of results.

Presents

Excellent analysis of different types of data relevant to the decisions made by the entity using different

Excellent use of appropriate data and software; no errors; reflects on implications of assumptions made; evidence of originality and

Exceedingly clear and internally coherent data analysis, not a single error/mistak

software and techniqu es

Effective evaluatio n of decision s and communi cation to intended audience s

20 %

techniques

using data analysis techniques with the use of software where appropriate

Explains the meaning of results obtained.

implications for relevant entities and its stakeholders.

No errors in analysis.

limitations in the analysis and implications of assumptions made.

techniques and software (where appropriate).

Explores assumptions made and quality of data and effects on the results obtained with sensitivities (where necessary)

creativity in finding a fit between the tools and organisational context

e in analysis, sensitivities used appropriatel y, strong evidence of independent and imaginative thinking

Not identified decisions; contents are irrelevant (“off-topic”); full of inconsisten cies and grammatica l errors affecting readability

No clear structure; weak use of English.

No or ‘ghost’ references/ bibliography.

Decision alternatives not clearly identified.

Structure is apparent but poor or inappropriate, and/or errors in use of English; identifies decision alternatives

Good structure which is consistent with the report's content, and few errors in the use of English.

Reference/bibli ography is sound.

Discussion of alternative solutions to identified decisions

Wellstructured, with good use of English. Very good references/bibli ography.

Attempts to justify alternative solutions to identified decisions

Excellent structure, with excellent use of English; Extensive correctly constructed and referenced bibliography.

Convincing arguments to support suggested solutions.

Contents enable the audience to judge/choose between alternative decisions using appropriate criteria; provides guidance on where additional information/solut ion could be sought; excellent use of English throughout

Excellently structured, contents of report anticipates uses by its audience, with excellent use of English; Excellent justifications and answers to questions anticipated from the audience.

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