160726 fx conviction update

Marketing Communication

FX Convictions

Group Economics Macro & Financial Markets

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26 July 2016

Short NZD/CAD closed Roy Teo

 Our stop loss (profit protection) got hit in NZD/CAD at 0.9350…

Senior FX Strategist

 …and we have removed it from our conviction list

Tel: +65 6597 8616

 Meanwhile, we have lowered our GBP/JPY stop loss from 148 to 140

roy.teo@sg.abnamro.com

 We keep in place our HUF long vs EUR, JPY long vs GBP convictions Georgette Boele Co-ordinator FX & Precious Metals Strategy Tel: +31 20 629 7789 georgette.boele@nl.abnamro.com

Stop loss (profit protection) hit in NZD/CAD The slide in the New Zealand dollar came to a halt as financial markets have now fully anticipated a 50bp cut by the RBNZ. In addition, lower crude oil prices have weighed on the CAD in recent days. As a result, our stop loss (=profit protection) at 0.9350 in short New Zealand dollar versus Canadian dollar got hit. So we have removed the call from our conviction list. The total return on this position is 1.5%.

Lower stop loss in GBP/JPY Meanwhile, we have lowered our GBP/JPY stop loss from 148 to 140. Recently, the GBP has declined because of weaker than expected economic data. Meanwhile, the yen also strengthened after Nikkei reported that fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller than previously reported (JPY 6 trillion versus 10-20 trillion). In addition, only about JPY 2 trillion supplementary budget will be passed this year.

We keep in place our HUF long versus EUR and JPY long versus GBP We keep our HUF long versus EUR and JPY long versus GBP high conviction views in place.

For more details please refer to our FX Convictions – Short GBP/JPY, and FX Convictions – Add HUF long versus EUR.

Our open positions and stop loss levels Open positions High conviction views Open EURHUF GBP/JPY

Open 315.25 139.86

Last price Position base currency 313.04 Short since 12 May 2016 12.02 137.14 Short since 19 July 2016 10.09

Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics

Insights.abnamro.nl/en

Stop loss 325.00 140.00

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FX F Convictio ons – Lower stop loss GBP/JPY - 2 26 July 2016 6

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