Group Economics
Global Watch Global trade regaining traction
Arjen van Dijkhuizen, + 31 20 628 8052
8 July 2015
Global trade has picked up recently, after the slowdown in Q1 Emerging economies, particularly emerging Asia, drove export slowdown in Q1 Global trade not a bad omen for global growth Global trade not ‘out of sync’ with global growth
Global trade picks up in April
Sharp movements in March mostly corrected in April
Index, 2005 = 100
Price index (USD per point)
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Underlying the general picture, we saw some sharp regional movements in March. US import volumes and Latin American export volumes rose sharply together, with the US being Latin
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America’s key export destination. Next to that, Japanese import volumes and Asia’s export volumes jointly declined
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sharply in March. What might even be more striking is that most of these sharp underlying movements seen in March
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already showed a clear correction one month later, as US import volumes slowed again while Japanese import volumes and Asian export volumes recovered.
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110 10
11 12 13 CPB world trade index (lhs)
14 15 Baltic dry index (rhs)
Divergence between emerging and advanced economies Trade developments in the first part of this year show clear
Sources: CPB, Thomson Reuters Datastream.
differences between various country groups and regions. Let Global trade picks up, after slowdown in Q1
us for instance look at export volumes, taking three months
According to CPB data, global trade picked up in April, after
moving averages of monthly changes. The chart clearly shows
having lost momentum in Q1. World trade was down by -1.5%
that the drop in global export volumes shown in Q1-2015 was
yoy in Q1 (2014-Q4: +1.2%), according to CPB’s indicator for
largely accounted for by emerging economies. Despite the
global merchandise trade. However, in April the index showed
improvement in April, EM export volumes are still 2.3% lower
its first rise in four months, rising by 0.3% mom, although it still
than their December 2012 peak. Meanwhile, export volumes of
remained below the December 2014 peak. The Baltic dry index
advanced economies have recovered recently and in April
also moved up recently, although remaining close to post-
even surpassed their previous peak reached in November
financial crisis lows. The latter index measures the cost of
2014.
moving major raw materials over sea and is frequently used as global activity indicator, though it has been impacted over
EMs drive drop in global export volumes Export volumes, %mom, 3 months moving averages
recent years by the oversupply of vessels.
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Sharp moves in March partly corrected in April
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Index
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150
0
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-1
120
-2
110
-3 10
100
11
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Advanced economies
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90 10
11
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Imports Japan Exports Asia Sources: CPB, Thomson Reuters Datastream.
14 Imports US Exports Latin America
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Emerging economies
Sources: CPB, Thomson Reuters Datastream.
15 World