PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS
OUTLOOK 2022
ESSENTIAL GEOPOLITICAL INSIGHTS IN THE MENA REGION Tuesday February 22, 2022 3:00 pm - 5:00 pm JW Marriott Marquis Cost: Members 200 Introductory Members 250
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About this Program At a time of high volatility in the regional security environment, Cruickshank & Dean Global Intelligence CEO, Paul Cruickshank and Director of Operations, Aimen Dean will provide their perspective on the key geopolitical and security issues in the GCC countries and the wider Middle East as well as the implications for the business landscape. Our Experts:
Paul Cruickshank
Aimen Dean
Paul Cruickshank is the Co-Founder and CEO of Cruickshank & Dean Global Intelligence, Editor-in-Chief of CTC Sentinel, the flagship publication of the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, formerly CNN’s Terrorism Analyst for over a decade and contributor to a variety of international publications and news outlets including The New Republic, The Guardian, The Washington Post, and Newsweek.https://twitter.com/CruickshankPaul
Aimen Dean is the Co-Founder and Director of Operations of Cruickshank & Dean Global Intelligence, a globally renowned international security consultant & CTF expert. Aimen's story is a unique one. He was an early member of Al-Qaeda but changed course in 1998. He played a key role in the global campaign against terrorism for the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6).He has consulted for HSBC and several other major private and public entities. Dean is the author of the critically acclaimed memoir “Nine Lives: My Time as MI6’s Top Spy Inside alQaeda.” https://twitter.com/AimenDean
At a time of high volatility in the regional security environment, Cruickshank & Dean Global Intelligence CEO, Paul Cruickshank and Director of Operations, Aimen Dean provided their perspective on the key geopolitical and security issues in the GCC countries and the wider Middle East as well as the implications for the business landscape.
For more information contact: events@amchamdubai.org
THE SECURITY OUTLOOK FOR THE GULF IN Q2 2022 BY PAUL CRUICKSHANK & AIMEN DEAN
On the last Friday of March, as Formula One drivers began their afternoon free practice at Jeddah’s Corniche circuit, dark smoke began to drift across the sky. Less than ten miles away a fuel depot at Aramco’s North Jeddah Bulk Plant adjacent to the international airport was ablaze after being hit by a missile fired from Yemen by the Houthis. It was the third time the plant had been struck by the Houthis, and the second time in less than a week. The facility, which stores diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, is a critical node of Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, holding more than a quarter of supplies, including the fuel necessary to operate a regional desalination plant.1 The missile attacks on Jeddah were part of a barrage of strikes by Houthis in the weeks before Ramadan against targets across the Kingdom, including, significantly, a desalination facility in Al-Shaqeeq on the Red Sea coast, to retaliate for mounting battlefield losses inside Yemen.2 U.S national security advisor Jake Sullivan condemned the aerial attacks and stated they were “clearly enabled by Iran.”3 Notwithstanding a two-month U.N. brokered ceasefire, which began on the first day of Ramadan, and which saw the warring parties in Yemen promise to “halt all offensive military air, ground and maritime operations inside Yemen and across its borders,”4 Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies continue to be extremely concerned by the security threat posed by the Tehran regime and its network of proxies in the region, including Lebanese Hezbollah and an array of militia groups in Iraq. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has
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THE AMCHAM UPDATE Q1 - 2022
provided the Houthis with the capabilities to unleash drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, with Tehran supplying weapons components, training, expertise5, as well as encouragement. On the night of the attack on Jeddah, the faces of Houthi leaders were projected onto Tehran’s Azadi tower. 6
An Aramco oil depot was engulfed in flames after a missile attack claimed by Yemen’s Houthis. The strike came on the eve of the F1 Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. Peter J Fox | Getty Images
Two days later, when the foreign ministers of Bahrain, the UAE, Egypt, and Morocco met their Israeli and American counterparts at a historic summit at a resort in Israel’s Negev desert, countering the threat posed by Tehran was at the top of the agenda7. The Saudis did not attend the summit, but their views and concerns were voiced during the meetings. The Gulf countries are very concerned that a revival of the Iran nuclear deal will result in Iran having greater resources to destabilize the region. They are also troubled by the increasing signs that Washington, to get a deal over the finishing line, is willing to reverse the Trump administration’s 2019 designation of the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization.
