ABC LUNCHEON BUILDS COMMUNITY AND FORECASTS THE FUTURE ECONOMY

ABC and the Programs Committee recently hosted a luncheon at the Loews Portofino Bay at Universal Orlando Resort for members with speaker Diane O’Dell with the Universal Orlando Foundation and Sean Snaith, Ph.D, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting.

Members had a chance to meet Universal guests and learn more about the foundation whose motto is “Culture Builds Community.” The Universal Orlando Foundation is committed to making a difference in Central Florida through the power of education and the magic of the arts. They are dedicated to supporting local organizations that strive to make our community a better place to live. The foundation recently completed a significant supply drive for all the students headed back to school.

Sean Snaith kicked off his presentation by asking members “How did we get there?” Moving through issues beginning in 2020 and the COVID years to cover problems we’ve faced such as inflation, supply chain failures, labor market shortages, high oil/gas prices, Snaith showed how all of these were self-inflicted and rooted in pandemic policies.

Repercussions of the set of problems we created are still being played out, and the next question asked is always “Whose fault, is it?”

Most of us have seen an “I did that!” sticker picturing President Joe Biden pointing at the price of gasoline on fuel pumps in gas stations around the United States as a way to claim that he increased the gas prices. The problem stemmed from closing businesses and schools, resulting in a collapse of the demand for oil. Once the country reopened in full force, the demand explosion created a demand that couldn’t be met, and prices skyrocketed.

Once the self-inflicted recession ended and the economy roared back to life, the supply was not there to support it. Stimulus and unemployment money was going into unnecessary items instead of towards rent because of eviction halts and once that went away the money was not there for its intended purpose. This is part of the factor that is going to create a new recession. The data all shows similar behaviors consistent with the past three recessions this country has seen.

Despite a looming recession, Snaith added that “The recession, if it happens, will not be nearly as deep as the 2008-2009 and 2020 recessions but combined with tighter monetary policy it will help bring inflation down significantly from the peak levels in 2022.” Additionally, the large number of job openings as the economy enters a recession will cushion the impact on the labor market as cutting

openings will lessen the need for layoffs and ease the sever labor market shortages over the next two years although not enough to fully relieve wage and salary pressures.

Snaith ended his presentation with a discussion of the regional housing market and the difference between the surge in housing prices experienced in Florida from 2004-2006 compared to 20202022. Due to tightened mortgage standards during the pandemic as opposed to the easy lending that fueled the previous housing bubble, the wave of foreclosures and shorts sales that caused the plunge post 2006 will not repeat itself in the wake of this most recent surge.

Snaith did not disappoint with his reputation to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner, often earning praise from members for having “an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.”

At the conclusion of the program, ABC presented a $2,500 donation check to the Universal Orlando Foundation, raised with proceeds from the luncheon, to help support their important service to the community.

To learn more about the Universal Orlando Foundation visit www. universalorlandogiving.org

Thank you to EquipmentShare for sponsoring the event.