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KEY INSIGHTS 2017

GLOBALISATION

IN REVERSE - THE DANISH RESPONSE

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LEADERS OF TODAY CONNECTING WITH LEADERS OF TOMORROW


WELCOME TO AARHUS SYMPOSIUM

FOCUS 2017 WHAT?

Your chance to engage in a discussion with four competent speakers on the challenges facing Denmark as a small open economy in a changing world.

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DATE AND TIME

Date: Monday, October 30, 2017 Time: 15.15 – 20.00

LOCATION

The S-building, Fuglesangs Allé 4, Aarhus BSS

TICKET

Bring the QR-code you received by e-mail as your ticket

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CONTENTS 01

AGENDA

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THE THEME OF AARHUS SYMPOSIUM FOCUS 2017

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INFOGRAPHICS FACTS AND OPINIONS ABOUT GLOBALISATION

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PRESENTING THE SPEAKERS 07

CHRISTIAN FRIIS BACH

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EDWARD ASHBEE

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DENNIS NOVY

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THOMAS SCHULZ

PRESENTING THE MODERATOR

PREMIUM PARTNER OF AARHUS SYMPOSIM 2017


AGENDA

15.15

ARRIVAL

16.15

WELCOME TO AARHUS SYMPOSIUM FOCUS

16.30 17.00 17.30 18.00 19.00

WHY THE BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBALISATION? WITH CHRISTIAN FRIIS BACH AND EDWARD ASHBEE

HOW WILL THIS IMPACT GLOBAL TRADE? WITH DENNIS NOVY AND THOMAS SCHULZ

BREAK WITH REFRESHMENTS THE DANISH RESPONSE WITH CHRISTIAN FRIIS BACH, EDWARD ASHBEE, DENNIS NOVY, AND THOMAS SCHULZ

A BITE TO EAT AND NETWORKING

AARHUS SYMPOSIUM FOCUS

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AARHUS SYMPOSIUM

Aarhus Symposium Focus is an inspiring and enlightening event that takes place on Monday evening in the week of Aarhus Symposium. The purpose of Aarhus Symposium Focus is to engage leaders of today with leaders of tomorrow in a discussion on Denmark’s most important challenges.


AARHUS SYMPOSIUM FOCUS Thoughtful students participating in the panel debate at the very first Aarhus Symposium Focus in 2016 with the theme “Demographic Changes - How Will We Work, Age, and Live?


THE THEME OF AARHUS SYMPOSIUM FOCUS 2017

GLOBALISATION IN REVERSE - THE DANISH RESPONSE How can Denmark prosper as a small open economy in a closing world?

T

he foundation of global trade is changing. After decades of increasing economic integration, Western societies are experiencing a backlash against globalisation. As countries work towards national rather than global agendas, the international society is in danger of facing change in its most treacherous form; when progress is suddenly eroded or even destroyed. This leaves Danish policymakers and corporate leaders with a pressing question: Would Denmark be able to withstand such changes?

It is unlikely that this question will remain hypothetical much longer. Countries who once championed globalisation are now turning against it. The USA has elected a President who vows to put America first, and Great Britain voted to leave the EU. In many Western societies, large groups of citizens feel left behind in a rapidly changing world. They are not convinced by economists who argue that globalisation has increased the general standard of living across social groups. This has led to public support for protectionist policies which may ultimately prove harmful to nations who choose to implement them. How should policymakers address similar sentiments among Danish citizens? These developments constitute a grave threat to the Danish economy, which has flourished in a globalised world. However, while Danes generally perceive globalisation positively, international trade requires other countries to trade with. Many of our largest trade partners depend less on us than we do on them, and should they resort to protectionist policies, the consequences are likely to be severe for the Danish economy. How can we continue to prosper from international trade if our trade partners wish to limit it? Successfully addressing the challenges of being a small open economy in a closing world requires a combined effort from many different stakeholders. At Aarhus Symposium Focus 2017, a panel of competent speakers with diverse academic backgrounds and experiences will discuss these challenges. We encourage you to join the discussion on October 30, 2017.

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“GO GREEN, NOW?� Ditlev Engel on stage during his presentation at Battle of the Economists 2015. The presentation was followed by a panel debate on whether it was time for Denmark to go green.


INFOGRAPHICS

INFOGRAPHICS FACTS AND OPINIONS ABOUT GLOBALISATION TRADE AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

Denmark

20%

World

10% 0%

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: The World Bank, “World Development Indicators” – Percentages are computed as the sum of exports and imports of goods and services divided by GDP

Trade has played an increasingly important role for the world economy over the past several decades, and even more so for the Danish economy. While total imports and exports amounted to 58% of global GDP in 2015, the size of total Danish trade was 103,1% of Danish GDP. Danish exports are dominated by large companies, which have outgrown their Danish home markets and therefore rely on selling their goods and services abroad. The 100 largest Danish exporters account for half of Danish exports. The exports of the remaining 24,900 Danish exporters comprise the other half. DANISH EXPORTS Danish exports

LARGEST DANISH EXPORT MARKETS Country

Export value (DKKm) Share of exports (%)

Germany

148,922

14.3

Sweden

118,099

11.4

USA

82,162

7.9

Norway

81,112

7.8

UK

74,796

7.2

Source: Statistics Denmark, “Udenrigsøkonomi”, 2016 values

100 largest 100 largeexporters

24,All

other exporters rs

Source: Statistics Denmark, ”100 virksomheder står for halvdelen af eksporten”, 2014 values

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Exports are crucial to the Danish economy, and the most important export markets are Germany and Sweden. Meanwhile, Norway, the USA, and the UK also make up large shares of the demand for Danish goods and services.


INFOGRAPHICS

GLOBALISATION: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY FOR COMPANIES? Percentage of citizens who agree with the statement ”Globalisation represents a threat to employment and companies in our country”

15-25% 26-35% 36-45% 46-55% 56-65% 66-75%

Source: TNS opinion & social: ”Special Eurobarometer 461”, April 2017 Note: The data has been altered in order to not account for the “Don’t know” category. The responses “Opportunity” and “Threat” sum to 100% respectively.

The percentages indicated on the map are the shares of each country’s population who perceive globalisation as a threat rather than an opportunity to the country’s companies. The populations vary widely in their perception: Danish and Maltese citizens are the most positive with only 17% and 20%, respectively, while the figure is 63% for French and 72% for Greek citizens. "GLOBALISATION HAS MOSTLY BENEFITED THE WEALTHY RATHER THAN ORDINARY CITIZENS" 100% 80% Disagree

60%

Neither agree no ee nor disagree

40%

Agree

20% 0%

France

GB

GermanyU yUSA

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

Source: YouGov, ”International Survey”, October 2016

In many societies, large parts of the population perceive globalisation as a cause for increasing economic inequality. In Denmark, 45% agree that globalisation has mostly benefited the wealthy, while 73% of French citizens agree with this assessment.

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PRESENTING THE SPEAKERS

CHRISTIAN FRIIS BACH OCCUPATION Former Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Former Danish Minister for Development Cooperation

EDUCATION PhD, International Economics, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Copenhagen

MOTIVATION Christian Friis Bach has extensive experience with policymaking at both national and international level. This enables him to contribute with insights into which role international cooperation and political institutions can play in making globalisation work.

WHAT IS THE MOST PRESSING CHALLENGE FACING DENMARK IN RELATION TO THE CURRENT BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBALISATION? “We need to strengthen the national, regional, and global mechanisms which can ensure that the gains from globalisation are more equally distributed. The forces driving inequality will only grow stronger, as The Fourth Industrial Revolution fundamentally changes the demand for labour. Within the next 25-50 years, the marginal cost of energy will, through sustainable solutions, approach zero. This will facilitate widespread employment of robotics. Technological development can lead to marginalisation, but also open new opportunities for inclusion and flexibility in society. Political solutions must transcend the traditional boundaries between government, corporations, and citizens.” HOW CAN THE ATTENDING STUDENTS CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DISCUSSION? “Students can bring innovative thinking which breaks away from traditional analyses and solutions. Their large involvement in both globalisation and digitisation enables them to contribute to new forms of mobilisation and participation when developing the political and technological solutions of tomorrow.” HOW CAN INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS REMAIN RELEVANT AS THE POLITICAL WILL TO COOPERATE INTERNATIONALLY IS UNDER PRESSURE? “International cooperation must be built around sovereign nations contributing to responsible regional and global solutions for the benefit of both their own citizens and the global society. This requires involving citizens, corporations, and NGOs in the development and implementation of international solutions to a much larger extent than currently. The process leading to the UN Sustainable Development Goals serves as an example of the benefits of involving a wide range of actors.”

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PRESENTING THE SPEAKERS

EDWARD ASHBEE OCCUPATION Associate Professor, Department of Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business School Programme Director, B.Sc./M.Sc., International Business and Politics, Copenhagen Business School

EDUCATION PhD, Politics, Staffordshire University

MOTIVATION Edward Ashbee’s research and numerous publications make him a leading expert on the neo-liberal right wing and contemporary populism. This makes Ashbee capable of shedding light on the factors in society which may result in public aversion towards globalisation.

WHAT IS THE MOST PRESSING CHALLENGE FACING DENMARK IN RELATION TO THE CURRENT BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBALISATION? “Political events such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US President have focused attention on those who have lost out on the gains from globalisation, and policymakers now need to focus more on the losers than the winners. The role of educators is more important than ever. In subjects such as economics we have blithely asserted that free markets at home and abroad invariably bring gains for all. We have a responsibility to explore these claims much more critically and think about the reasons why those gains may be very unequally distributed.” HOW CAN THE ATTENDING STUDENTS CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DISCUSSION? “Just keep challenging the things that are said. Look for, and question, the implicit assumptions that are made. In particular, do not assume that the backlash is somehow irrational or absurd. It may at times take very ugly forms but there are solid reasons for current fears and resentments.” HOW CAN DANISH POLICYMAKERS ENSURE A SUFFICIENTLY EQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE GAINS FROM GLOBALISATION? “The left has traditionally argued for large-scale public spending in disadvantaged regions and areas, and the right for opening up markets. Both have their place. If there is to be sustained growth, public investment in physical and human capital can help lay a basis, but markets must also be much more open to small-scale newcomers.”

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PRESENTING THE SPEAKERS

DENNIS NOVY OCCUPATION Associate Professor of Economics, University of Warwick Associate, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics & Political Science

EDUCATION PhD, Economics, University of Cambridge

MOTIVATION As evident from his research and numerous publications, Dennis Novy is an authority on international trade and economics. Thus, Mr. Novy has the necessary expertise to discuss the economic implications of the current backlash against globalisation in a Danish as well as an international context.

WHAT IS THE MOST PRESSING CHALLENGE FACING DENMARK IN RELATION TO THE CURRENT BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBALISATION? “The most pressing challenge is to convince the Danish public that while the current economic system certainly needs to be improved dramatically, the alternative is worse. In order to do so, we need to have an open conversation amongst ordinary people and listen to their concerns. Putting up barriers will not help the Danish economy, nor will it help those citizens who endured the worst challenges in recent years. History teaches us that turning away from globalisation, as opposed to managing and taming it, usually ends in disaster.” HOW CAN THE ATTENDING STUDENTS CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DISCUSSION? “Students learn about the advantages and pitfalls of globalisation in their studies. This gives them a rounded view of why globalisation is generally a force for good. In addition, they come from different backgrounds and study in a diverse university community. This gives them an international perspective, which is crucial in today’s world, as well as the ability and enthusiasm to explain these issues to the wider world.” HOW CAN DENMARK CONTINUE TO PROSPER FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE AS PROTECTIONISM IS ON THE RISE? “Denmark is a small country and therefore more dependent on international trade, investment, and movement of labour than most other countries. Denmark needs to play to its comparative advantage, especially in education at the highest level, creativity, and high-quality service industries. Innovation is key.“

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PRESENTING THE SPEAKERS

THOMAS SCHULZ OCCUPATION Group Chief Executive Officer, FLSmidth

EDUCATION Dr.-Ing., PhD in Mining & Diploma in Mineral Processing, Rhine-Westphalia Technical University of Aachen

MOTIVATION Thomas Schulz is the successful leader of FLSmidth, a market-leading supplier of engineering, equipment, and service solutions to the global mining and cement industries. Thus, he has insights into how to navigate current challenges while working for the benefit of both FLSmidth and Danish society.

WHAT IS THE MOST PRESSING CHALLENGE FACING DENMARK IN RELATION TO THE CURRENT BACKLASH AGAINST GLOBALISATION? “Denmark is dependent on international trade and engagement with other cultures. Therefore, it is important for FLSmidth that Denmark maintains a positive reputation globally. This ensures that Danish corporations are welcome around the world and that foreign governments do not impose restrictions on trade with Denmark. Additionally, a positive reputation enables us to attract top-level talent and increases the chances of Danish expats returning with their global families, so their talent and experience is not lost.” HOW CAN THE ATTENDING STUDENTS CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DISCUSSION? “Future leaders can help spread the message that globalisation is part of the solution, not the problem. I urge them to focus on ensuring that both environmental and socioeconomic considerations are taken into account when trying to ensure sustainable growth for future generations. In this way, we can justify globalisation as being beneficial for society.”

HOW CAN DANISH CORPORATIONS CONTRIBUTE TO ENSURING THAT DENMARK CONTINUES TO ENGAGE IN AND PROSPER FROM INTERNATIONAL TRADE? “As business leaders, we have a responsibility to take transparent, responsible, and sustainable actions which create opportunities for forthcoming business transactions. This can also include making our voices heard within our democratic context if we fear that current developments may compromise Denmark’s reputation abroad. We must ensure that both politicians and the public benefit from our experience and knowledge regarding the positive effects of globalisation.”

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MODERATOR AT AARHUS SYMPOSIUM FOCUS 2017 We are excited to welcome back Thomas Bernt Henriksen as the moderator of Aarhus Symposium Focus 2017. Thomas Bernt Henriksen is the Op-Ed Editor at Dagbladet Børsen, where he focuses on linking new economic research to the current political agenda. His journalistic experience and deep knowledge of Danish society will ensure an interesting discussion.

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THOMAS BERNT HENRIKSEN OP-ED EDITOR, DAGBLADET BØRSEN


FOCUS YOUR THOUGHTS - Have you considered if any of the assumptions made in the public debate about globalisation deserve to be challenged? - Have you considered how you, as a leader of tomorrow, can apply what you have been taught about globalisation to the discussion? - Have you considered how Denmark is to remain competitive as globalisation either moves forward or in reverse? - Have you considered how we can ensure a fair distribution of the gains from globalisation among all Danish citizens? Join the discussion at Aarhus Symposium Focus 2017 and online using #ASFocus2017

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WWW.AARHUS-SYMPOSIUM.ORG

OCTOBER 30, 2017

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Aarhus Symposium Focus 2017: Key Insights  
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