AAAA Aftermarket Dashboard - Q4 2023 by aaaa710

Dashboard Q4 2023

The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia

Welcome to the Q4 2023 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.

State of the Market

This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.

EV Sales & Growth

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Year in Review

Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, the ABS Motor Vehicle Census and BITRE.

State of the Market

Australian Economic Indicators Consumer Confidence

81.3

( 0.7)

Westpac Melbourne Institute (Q4’ 23, vs. Q3’ 23) Consumer confidence increased slightly at the back end of the year, but remained low through the festive period despite this time of year historically delivering more positive results.

While Q4 typically performs well, ongoing economic pressures from the cost-of-living crisis mean that the results remain some of the weakest recorded post-pandemic.

Business Confidence

89.1

( 0.7)

Roy Morgan (Q4’ 23, vs. Q3’ 23)

Business confidence decreased in the fourth quarter, recording the 11th consecutive month in decline. This is the longest downward trend since 2010, with ongoing business concerns about the state of the Australian economy suggesting that this will persist into 2024 One slight positive within the quarterly results is that while November recorded a particularly weak (but historically consistent) score of 85.8, there was a slight recovery in December off the back of sales through the festive period.

Fuel Prices

$1.97

( 2.9c)

AiP - Ave weekly price (Q4’ 23, vs. Q3’ 23)

Petrol prices surged in Q3, and remained high in Q4, nudging $2 a litre as we closed out 2023. Multiple factors are acting in concern to drive this outcome, with ongoing high levels of global demand for petroleum products, and fluctuating exchange rates. Looking ahead, the volatile international market makes it difficult to predict prices for the new year, but experts anticipate they will remain high well into 2024.

New Vehicle Sales by Quarter The final quarter of 2023 saw an outstanding result, with 317,494 new vehicle sales recorded, resulting in an annual figure of just over 1.2 million new vehicles. This 17% YoY increase is driven by 25% growth in light commercial sales, along with 16% increases for both passenger vehicles and SUVs.

317,494

Unlike recent years, the Q4 figures are largely in line with the previous two quarters, despite Q2 historically outperforming others off the back of EOFY sales. Industry commentary suggests the main reason for this is that 2023 new vehicle sales are being buoyed by the fulfilment of historical orders as against new sales, suggesting we could see a significant correction in 2024. 400,000 300,000

272,077

251,403

233,691

2023 sales volume in Q4

317,494

270,299

17%

200,000

Year-on-Year

100,000 0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial

New Vehicle Sales By Marque Q4 vs Q3 Rank

Make

Q4 Volume

% Chng YoY

Q4 Share

Toyota

60,581

11%

19%

2 1

Ford

26,596

26%

3 1

Mazda

24,788

14%

4 1

Hyundai

18,225

20%

5 2

Mitsubishi

17,797

6 2

Kia

16,997

-6%

7 1

15,539

-1%

8 2

Isuzu Ute

13,000

59%

9 3

Volkswagen

11,978

29%

10 2

Subaru

11,051

10%

TOTAL

317,494

17%

Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial

Toyota 60,581 vehicles sold (+11% YoY) Toyota closed out the year in style, up 11% YoY for the quarter. While this is partially due to the delivery of outstanding orders, continuing demand for Toyota vehicles should mean strong results into 2024. Looking at the rest of the top 10:

▪

Ford has claimed 2nd spot for the quarter, with a 26% YoY increase pushing it above 3rd placed Mazda

▪

Hyundai claimed bragging rights over Kia, finishing the quarter in 3rd spot, with more than 18,000 sales for a 20% YoY increase

▪

Isuzu Ute (8th) and Volkswagen (9th) both finished the year strongly, with double-digit YoY increases

▪

A 46% YoY increase was not enough to give Tesla a top 10 spot, dropping to 13th spot, behind both Nissan and GWM

EV Sales & Growth

Passenger / LCV Sales By Fuel Type Vehicle Type

Passenger

SUV

Light Commercial

Total

Fuel Type

Q4 Volume

% Chng YoY

Q4 Share

Petrol

31,532

-3%

10%

Diesel

3,112

+21%

Hybrid

8,694

+36%

Electric

8,809

+173%

PHEV

180

+100%

Petrol

101,950

+8%

34%

Diesel

35,055

+16%

12%

Hybrid

19,994

+24%

Electric

12,593

+50%

PHEV

4,289

+240%

Petrol

7,589

-10%

46%

Diesel

70,411

+30%

36%

Electric

+414%

Hybrid

N/A

304,304

17%

N/A

Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV & Light Commercial

Petrol

Electric

Volume: 141,071 Change YoY: +4% Share: 46%

Volume: 21,474 Change YoY: +85% Share: 7%

Diesel

PHEV

Volume: 108,578 Change YoY: +25% Share: 36%

Volume: 4,469 Change YoY: +230% Share: 1%

Volume: 28,708 Change YoY: +28% Hybrid Share: 9%

Total EV Sales 25,943

The final quarter of 2023 saw a significant increase in the number of low and zero emission vehicles sold in Australia, with battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles all recording strong year-on-year growth. Considering both battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles together, almost 26,000 were sold for the quarter, setting the sector up for further growth through 2024. While Australians do still love SUVs, the strongest EV growth category is passenger vehicles, with OEMs seeing the potential to launch small hatch backs and sedans into urban areas. Battery electric vehicles outperformed hybrids in this category (by 115 sales), despite it including consistently strong performers such as the Toyota Camry and Corolla hybrids.

Within the SUV category, hybrids remain a strong option (recording almost 20,000 sales), offering improved fuel economy at a more compelling price point that appears more compelling for many purchasers than the premium frequently being charged for battery electric alternatives.

Year in Review

Top 10 Car Brands 2023

2023 2022

215,240 231,050 100,008 95,718 87,800 66,628

The biggest biggest loser in the The the top top 10 10 was wasMitsubishi, Mitsubishi, dropping two spots as dropping as its itssales salesfell fellby by18% 18%toto63,511. 63,511. Make

2023

YoY Change

2023 Share

75,183 73,345

Toyota

215,240

-7%

18%

Mazda

100,008

Ford

87,800

32%

58,346 49,582

Kia

76,120

-3%

Hyundai

75,183

46,116

Mitsubishi

63,511

-18%

58,346

18%

Tesla

46,116

135%

Subaru

46,114

28%

Isuzu Ute

45,341

28%

46,114 36,036 45,341 35,323 Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial

Mazda continues to hold second spot with 100,008

Mazda continues to hold second spot with 100,008 vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32% vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a salessales increase, overtaking both Kia and as it 32% increase, overtaking both KiaHyundai and Hyundai captured 87,800 sales.sales. as it captured 87,800

76,120 78,330

63,511 76,991

19,594

Despite salesdecline, decline,Toyota Toyotaremained Despite aa year-on-year year-on-year sales remained the top-selling car brand ininAustralia the top-selling car brand in Australia 2023, in 2023, outperforming any individual competitor outperforming any individual competitor two to two one. to one.

New Car Sales by State

In 2023, aallyear-on-year states saw strong growthToyota in newremained vehicle Despite sales decline, sales with relatively consistent YoY increases the top-selling car brand in Australia in 2023, across the country. Western Australia saw the largest outperforming any individual competitor two to one. increase at 18% (following a slow year in 2022), which translates to 18,725 moresecond new vehicles sold. Mazda continues to hold spot with 100,008

vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32%

On the East coast, NSW remains the strongest sales increase, bothputting Kia anditHyundai as it market, with itsovertaking 374,432 sales just over captured 87,800 sales. 47,000 units ahead of Victoria for total sales volumes.

The biggest loser in the top 10 was Mitsubishi, dropping two spots as its sales fell by 18% to 63,511.

2022: 9,849 2023: 10,267

2022: 235,591 2023: 261,532

2022: 105,905 2023: 124,630

State/ Territory

QLD

2022: 69,373 2023: 79,009

NSW

2022: 338,012 2023: 374,432

ACT 2022: 16,228 2023: 18,531

VIC

2022: 287,314 2023: 327,229

TAS 2022: 19,157 2023: 21,150 Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial

2023

YoY Change

2023 Share

NSW

374,432

11%

31%

VIC

327,229

14%

27%

QLD

261,532

11%

21%

124,630

18%

10%

79,009

14%

TAS

21,150

10%

ACT

18,531

14%

10,267

New Car Sales by Buyer Type

2023 2022

Private remain the single largest cohort when Despitebuyers a year-on-year sales decline, Toyota remained itthe comes to newcar vehicle in Australia, making top-selling brandsales in Australia in 2023, 55% of all purchases (up 8.6% from 2022). In real outperforming anytranslates individual to competitor two toextra one. terms, this growth almost 50,000 vehicles in this category much that could Mazda continues to hold(although second spot withof100,008 be attributed the Ford completion vehicles sold, to while took 3rdofoffpre-existing the back of a 32% orders).

sales increase, overtaking both Kia and Hyundai as it

630,297 580,495

Private

429,784 363,623

Business

33,803 Government

27,197

71,124 Rental

63,755

Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial

captured 87,800private sales. purchasers on volume, all Despite lagging fleet buyer categories recorded stronger YoY growth, The biggest loser the top 10 fleets was Mitsubishi, as they worked toinrenew their off the back of dropping two as its sales fell 18% tosupply 63,511. COVID-19 and spots the subsequent newbyvehicle shortages. This led to total fleet sales for the year of 534,711 vehicles. Within the fleet category, government (+25% YoY) was the highest growth sector. In many cases, this will also see them adopting zero emission vehicles, as they work to deliver to government commitments around emissions reduction.

Buyer Type

2023

YoY Change

2023 Share

Private

630,297

8.6%

55%

Business

429,784

18.2%

37%

Government

33,803

24.3%

Rental

71,124

11.6%

New Car Sales by Fuel Type

2023 2022 588,612

551,556

Petrol 379,524 361,366

Diesel 98,439

Further pressure is likely on petrol and diesel vehicles in 2024, with more electric vehicles entering the market, and a level of correction likely from the record-setting 2023 result.

YoY Change

2023 Share

Petrol

588,612

46%

Diesel

379,524

36%

11,212

Hybrid

98,439

20%

5,937

Electric

87,217

161%

PHEV

11,212

89%

33,410

Source: VFACTS 2023 | Passenger, SUV, Light Commercial & Heavy Commercial

sales increase, growth overtaking Hyundai as it The strongest wasboth seenKia forand battery electric captured 87,800 sales. vehicles (up 161% YoY), and plug-in hybrids (89%), which makes sense given both are at an earlier stage The biggest loser in theHybrid top 10vehicles was Mitsubishi, in their development. (20% growth) dropping two spots asimprovement, its sales fell byoutperforming 18% to 63,511. also recorded strong the more traditional alternatives.

2023

87,217

PHEV

trend to lower emissions is clearly evident from the results continues for Hybrid,toelectric and plug-in hybrid Mazda hold second spot with 100,008 vehicles. vehicles sold, while Ford took 3rd off the back of a 32%

81,786

Hybrid

Electric

Despite a year-on-year sales decline, Toyota remained The overall growth in theinmarket, has to the top-selling car brand Australia in led 2023, increased salesany volumes across all fuel types, the outperforming individual competitor two tobut one.

Fuel Type

About AAAA

About Fifth Quadrant

The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.

With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.

For more information, please contact:

Lesley Yates

Ben Selwyn

7-8 Bastow Place Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia +61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au

Level 6, 54 Miller St North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia +61 (2) 9927 3333

Director of Government Relations and Advocacy Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA) Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)

Director Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 ben@fifthquadrant.com.au

Amelia McVeigh

Account Director Fifth Quadrant 0420 248 689 amelia@fifthquadrant.com.au