Q4 2025 Quarterly Aftermarket Dashboard
Summary Report
The voice of the independent aftermarket in Australia
Welcome to the Q4 2025 Edition of the Aftermarket Dashboard, a quarterly information service for members of the AAAA.
This industry publication captures useful statistical and related data, as indicators of the unfolding trends and health of the automotive aftermarket industry, and has been designed to provide regular insight on our industry.
We value your suggestions for improvement or feedback regarding content.
Data is sourced from VFACTS New Car Sales Data, EVC Vehicle Sales Report, FQ SME Report September 2025, Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, ABS Statistics; Unemployment Rate (trend adj), Household Spending Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Australian Petroleum Statistics, Roy Morgan & Westpac, FQ Car Parc Forecasting, FQ Consumer Tracker, AAAA Critical Trends Survey 2025
Economic Indicators
economic performance
Business confidence has declined further to 86, now sitting 7% below year-ago levels, signalling growing caution among Australian businesses heading into 2026.
Consumer confidence has also weakened compared to both last month and last year, though households continue to spend. The unemployment rate remains largely stable, while the household spending indicator has lifted, pointing to resilient consumer demand despite softer confidence readings.
Overall, it appears businesses are more cautious about the year ahead even as consumers remain willing to spend. This may reflect businesses anticipating slower conditions that haven't yet materialised in consumer behaviour.
fuel prices
>5% change vs. YoY
Petrol and diesel prices have eased from the previous period, but remain elevated despite this recent softening.
Fuel sales show mixed but resilient demand. Regular petrol volumes are below year-ago levels, while premium fuel sales have lifted year-on-year, suggesting continued strength among higher-income drivers. Diesel sales remain broadly stable year-on-year, supporting ongoing commercial and freight activity.
Overall, driving behaviour remains resilient despite elevated prices, with premium fuel demand pointing to ongoing strength among higher-income consumers
vehicle sales
Source: VFACTS Reports, EVC Vehicle Sales Report, Automotive Insights Report (AIR) AutoGrab Data
Monthly new vehicle sales lifted modestly in December, supported by continued growth in electrified models. The Toyota RAV4 led monthly sales, while the Ford Ranger remained the top model yearto-date.
EV sales more than doubled compared with last year, lifting monthly EV share to 10%, though hybrids and PHEVs continue to drive the bulk of electrified volume. Combined, Zero and Low Emission Vehicles now account for over a third of new vehicle sales.
Monthly used vehicle sales eased marginally year-on-year, although total annual volume remained stable, indicating continuing demand for secondhand vehicles.
automotive inflation
monthly business turnover index (5year index)*
quarterly consumer/ producer price index (5-year index)**
>5% change vs. YoY
*The ABS Business Turnover Index tracks changes in business turnover for large businesses ($20M+ annual turnover) based on monthly BAS lodgments, helping us understand trends around industry economic performance. **The Consumer and Producer price indexes then reflect changes in the costs of parts and materials from suppliers (i.e. input costs).
Source: ABS Statistics; Monthly Business Turnover Index, Consumer Price Index, Produce Price Index
Motor vehicle and parts retail turnover held at 154 in September, down from the prior month but slightly above last year (151). Wholesale turnover was 154, well up from last year.
Cost pressures do however remain elevated across the sector, with spare parts and accessories remaining flat year over year, while vehicle maintenance and repair costs rose 4%. Manufacturing prices were also up 5%, pointing to ongoing upstream cost pressures. While turnover indicators show resilience, particularly in wholesaling, retailers are contending with sustained cost pressures from manufacturing that cannot be fully passed through to customers.
Skills Shortages
Qualified Technician Shortage
Projected count of vacancy workers in workshops
In 2024, Australia's estimated 28,000 automotive workshops were, on average, operating one qualified employee short.
This translates into a workforce gap of more than 30K roles projected by the end of the decade, underlining that current pressures are structural rather than cyclical. Closing a gap of this scale will require more than traditional training pathways. It demands a broader rethink of who enters the profession.
Female apprentices by trade
Number of women commencing an Apprenticeship
One avenue for addressing the shortfall is broadening the talent pipeline, with commencement data across 2021 and 2024 pointing to a meaningful shift: the number of women entering motor mechanic training is growing strongly.
If sustained, this trend could see almost 1,300 young women start automotive apprenticeships by 2030, more than double the number commencing in 2024.
As technological innovation continues to reshape the role of a technician, increasing female participation represents a practical opportunity to expand workforce capacity and ease skills shortages.
Automotive apprenticeship completions
Share of Women Cancelling/Withdrawing, and Completing their Apprenticeship in 2024
7% of motor mechanic apprentices are currently female
Source: NCVER 2025, Apprentices and trainees, extract on 05/02/2026
There is however still a long way to go. While women represent 7% of motor mechanics in training, in 2024 they made up over 8% of withdrawals, and only 5% of completions, highlighting how difficult it remains for women to gain their full qualifications.
This reflects barriers identified in earlier AAAA Skills Shortages research, where 58% of female apprentices strongly agreed it was harder for women to succeed. In that study, one in four women reported having had to change employer, compared with just one in ten men.
Addressing retention is as critical as improving intake. Without it, gains in female participation risk translating into churn rather than lasting workforce capacity.
About AAAA
The Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association, is the national industry association representing manufacturers, distributors, wholesalers, importers and retailers of automotive parts and accessories, tools and equipment, as well as providers of vehicle service, repair and modification services in Australia.
For more information, please contact:
Lesley Yates
Director of Government Relations and Advocacy
Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA)
Convenor: Automotive Products Manufacturers & Exporters Council (APMEC)
7-8 Bastow Place
Mulgrave VIC 3170 Australia
+61 (3) 9545 3333 | 0402 005 476 lyates@aaaa.com.au
About Fifth Quadrant
With over 20 years of automotive experience, Fifth Quadrant has developed a detailed understanding of the automotive sector, using this market knowledge, we design and deliver research that helps our clients understand and overcome their business issues, empowering them to move forward with confidence.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Selwyn Guillaume Gomez
Director Lead Account Manager Fifth Quadrant Fifth Quadrant 0411 132 166 0424 064 081
ben@fifthquadrant.com.au ggomez@fifthquadrant.com.au
Level 6, 54 Miller St
North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia
+61 (2) 9927 3333