FleetOutlookReport2023
Future van fleetprioritiesrevealed
Confidencein a lowemissionsfuture
Growth-Funding-Powertrain–Vehiclesourcing
Introduction
The Fleet Outlook Report measures fleet buyer opinions to identify market trends, strategies, and buying influences. Fleet Outlook analyses 400 fleet buyer interviews to identify fleet trends, track electric vehicle momentum, and reveal their charging strategies.
The 4th edition of the Fleet Outlook Report helps fleet buyers inform their strategies and delivers evidence for fleet supplychain planning.
The report reveals an appetite to grow the core fleet, with 49% of fleets expecting this to continue through 2024. However, the momentum towards electric van adoptionhas cooled, with fleets citing concerns aboutvehicle downtime related to charging, rising costs of energy, and price parity with ICE vehicles as major concerns.
That said, there is no denying that fleets see an electric future, with nearly three-quarters (71%) of van fleets planning to invest in depot charge points in 2023. The SMMT predicts that 7.3%of all new LCV registrations will be electric by the end of the year and 22% of van fleets are planning to order electric vans in the next 12 months.
The full report, leadership briefings, and insight-based training are now availableto inform stakeholders and customer-facing resources on the latest #fleettrends, for details go to www.360mediagroupltd.com
IanRichardson–Founderof360MediaGroup
Ian has been advising automotive brands on fleet data and researching fleet audiences for nearly 2 decades. Previously serving as the publisher of Fleet News, head of Sewells, and creator of the FN50,Ian has helped brands gain clarity on the fleet market and identify opportunities.
Workingwith360MediaGroup
‘The BVRLA has worked with 360 Media on several projects, most recently our 2023 Industry Outlook. They worked closely with us on this project, helping us to design an effective survey, gain key inputs from in-depth interviews with our members, and produce an attractive and insightful final report.’
TobyPoston,
DirectorofCorporateAffairs|BVRLA
▪ Market trends – summary
▪ Executive Summary
▪ Market predictions summary
▪ Car fleet growth predictions
▪ Finance method
▪ Future orders by the powertrain
▪ EV Adoption timeline
▪ Alternative funding change indicators
▪ Agency model
▪ Car fleet profile, job need vs. perk
▪ Fleet policy - options to access electric cars
▪ Fleet choice list influences
▪ Cash allowance trends
▪ Charging profiles
▪ EV model appraisal
TheFleetOutlookReport measures fleet buyer opinions to identify market trends, strategy, and buying influences.
360 Media Group also tracks electric fleet momentum and charging strategies. Our report influences fleet buyers and the supply chain, adding authority to thought leadership events and providing evidence for planning.
ReportStructure
400UK fleets are surveyed twice yearly to inform market direction.
The sample is split into three groups as standard:
▪ 6-25 vehicles
▪ 26-99
▪ 100plus
▪ Surveys conducted in July 2022 and February 2023
TheFleetOutlookReport measures fleet buyer opinions to identify market trends, strategy, and buying influences.
360 Media Group also tracks electric fleet momentum and charging strategies. Our report influences fleet buyers and the supply chain, adding authority to thought leadership events and providing evidence for planning.
Executive summary
Executivesummary
Fleetgrowthoutlook
▪ Van fleetsrevealconfidence in thefuture,with 46% of fleetsexpectedto runa largerfleet in the next12months.The growthis drivenby25+ fleetsize, withall formsof primaryvan usage predictinggrowth.
Fundingtrends
▪ Finance lease is predictedto be the main fundingmethodfor29% of fleetsin the next12months, withoutrightpurchaseremainingthe primaryfundingmethod,for 31%of fleets.
▪ Leasingcompaniesandbrokersarecurrentlythe main channel for placingnewvan orders; however,asthe agencymodelgains traction,the relianceon theOEMwilllikely increase.
▪ Fleetsaredividedon howtheir replacementcycleswill changein the next12months,with44% expectingto remainthe sameandhalf predictingan increasein theterm.However,large fleets expecttheirtermto increase,with 66%citing this.
Lowemissionsfuture
▪ The van powertraincontinuestoshifttoelectric,with64% of fleetshavingat least one electric van on their fleet.
▪ Fleetspredictthat22% of theirvan orderswillbe electric in thenext 12months.
▪ A combined65% of fleetshave delayedsomeor all of their plansto transition to electricvans due to the energycrisis, whilst 31%claim it hashad no impacton theirplans. Corporatefleetsare least impacted,with‘businessas usual’ foralmost half;mid-size fleetsaremost affected.
▪ 23% of vanfleetshavea CO2cap of less than 100g/kmfornewvan orders,reflectinglowerEV uptakethancars. Worryingly,11%of fleetshave no CO2cap, withconcernsalreadyraisedabout the 2030 deadline of lessthan sevenyearsuntil the ban on newpetrolanddiesel vans.
22% of van, orders are predicted to be electric in the next 12 months.
Futurefleetpriorities
FiveFutureFleetPriorities
1. Fleets seek greater flexibility when sourcing vans, with 42% expecting to increase Flexi-rental and one-third planning to utilise more short-term rental and leasing. However, 11% of fleets also expect short-term rental to reduce, which indicates ongoing supply chain issues.
2. Electrification dominates the fleet agenda, with 64% of fleets now having at least one electric van. Over 80% of fleets expect at least 50% of their fleet to be electrified by 2030. 2025 is a significant milestone, with 26% of van fleets predicting to reach the tipping point, driven by the 100-plus van fleet category.
3. Charging Evs is the number one priority for van fleets; regardless if they already have them on their fleet, fleets recognise the need to plan and install workplace charging, with 71% of fleets expecting to install charge points in the next 12 months.
4. Fleets are prepared to make tough decisions, with 37% very likely to change their van payload profile and 44%very likely to change their processes to accommodate electric vans. Interest in alternative modes of transport remains strong.
5. 40% of fleets would consider switching suppliers based on their capabilities to support the transition to electric vans, while 42% could change.
40% would consider changing suppliers to support the EV transition. Suppliers need to demonstrate their EV credentials to avoid being left behind.
Growth outlookand fleet challenges
Fleetgrowthoutlook
1. 46% of fleets expect to run a larger fleet in the next 12 months, and 48% expect to see an improvement in the van supply chain.
2. Growth is driven by25+ fleet size, with all forms of primary van usage predicting growth.
Fleetgrowthoutlook-vanfleets, next12months
6-25 vans 26 - 99 vans 100+ vans
W2Q. Do you expect your fleet to be larger, smaller or the same in 12 months than it is today?
Vanfleetgrowthoutlookbyprimaryvanusage
Smaller
Vanfleetmanagementchallenges
Electric vehicles dominate the key challenges outlined by fleets; charging,
Vanfleetmanagement–challengesrankedbyimportance
Van fundingtrends
Currentandfuturepredictionsonvanfinancemethod
1. Outright purchase remains the primary funding method, with 31% of fleets.
2. However, finance lease is predicted to be the main funding method for 29% of fleets in the next 12 months.
Currentvanfundingmethod–asaproportionofthefleet
W2Q. Current fleet finance method proportion (mean)- VAN
Saleschannels
Leasing companies andbrokers are currently the main channel for new van orders; however, as the agency model gains traction the reliance on the OEM is likely to increase.
Leasing company
Leasing broker
Franchised dealer
Manufacturer website
Mainchannelfornewvanorders-next12months
Q10. Main purchase channel for any new VAN acquisitions in the next 12 months?
Replacementcycles
Fleets are divided on how their replacement cycles will change in the next 12 months, with 44% expecting to remain the same and half predicting an increase in the term. However, large fleets expect their term to increase, with 66% citing this.
Change in van replacement cycles by fleet banding
W2Q. Average new VAN replacement cycle over the next 12 months
A low emissions future?
CO2caponvanorders
23% of van fleets have a CO2 cap of less than 100g/km for new van orders, reflecting lower EV uptake than cars. 11% of fleets have no cap, which raises concerns about the 2030 deadline of lessthan seven years until the ban on new petrol & diesel vans.
PresenceofCO2caponfuturenewvanorders
W2Q. Do you have a CO2 cap on future new VAN orders being placed?
Vanpowertrain
The van powertrain continues to shift to electric, with 64% of fleets having at least one electric van on their fleet. Fleets predict that 22% of their van orders will be electric in the next 12 months.
Vanpowertrainpresenceonfleet
Vanpowertrainasaproportionofthefleet vs.futureorders
Van powertrain as proportion of fleet New van orders by powertrain
W2Q. What proportion of your company’s VANS are fuelled by the following?
W2Q. Fuel proportion for any new VAN acquisitions in the next 12 months?
W2Q. Current fuel use - VAN
Impactoftheenergycrisisontransitioningtoelectricvans
A combined 65% of fleets have delayed their plans to transition to electric vans due to the energy crisis, whilst 31% claim it has had no impact on their plans. Corporate fleets are least impacted, with ‘business as usual’ for almost half; mid-size fleets are most affected.
Impactoftheenergycrisisonplanstotransitionto electricvansbyfleetsizebanding
W2Q. How has the energy crisis impacted your plans to transition to Electric VANs (BEVs)?
Five future fleet priorities
Theimportanceofsupportingthetransitiontoelectricvansonthefleetsupplychain
40% of fleets would consider switching suppliers based on their capabilities to support the transition to electric vans, whilst a further 42% could potentially change.
Wouldyouconsiderswitchingsuppliersbasedontheir abilitytosupportyourfleetstransitiontoelectricvans?
W2Q. Would you consider switching fleet suppliers based on their ability to support your fleet’s transition to Electric VANs (BEVs)?
EVadoptiontimeline–thefirst50%offleetcarsvs.vans
Over 80% offleets expectatleast50%of theirfleet tobe electrifiedby 2030. 2025 is asignificantmilestone,with26% of van fleetspredictingtoreach thetippingpoint,driven by the100-plusvanfleetcategory.
adoptiontimeline
adoption-vansbyfleetsizebandings
Q - In what year do you expect 50% of your fleet to be electrified?
Potentialchangestotheirfleet
Fleets are preparing for change, with 37% very likely to change their van payload profile and 44% very likely to change their processes to accommodate electric vans. Interest in alternative modes of transportremains strong.
Potentialchangestovanfleetinthenext12months
Change van payload
Change business processes to accommodate BEVs
Explore alt modes of transport
W2Q. Which of the following would you consider exploring in the future?
Flexibilityinsourcingvans
Fleets are seeking greater flexibility when sourcing vans, with 42% expecting to increase Flexi-rental and one-third planning to utlise more short-term rental and leasing. However, 11% of fleets also expect short-term rental to reduce, which indicates ongoing supply chain issues.
Fleetintentforsourcingvansonflexibleterms
Flexi-rental
Workplacecharging
Workplace charging is seen as the pathway to ev adoption, for three consecutive years over 70% of fleets have indicated that they plan to install charge points. The reasons not to do this are cited as ownership of premises, cost, and driver resistance.
71% of fleetsexpectto install Workplacechargepoints in the next12 months.
Leasing brand awareness
LeasingbrandAWARENESS–PromptedWaveonWave
Holmanis now included in the top 20 leasing companies’ brand awareness tracker (from wave 2, Q1 2023) to counteract the merger between Leasys and Free2Move.
Agency sales model
Agencysalesmodel
Just one-third of fleets are fully aware of the Agency Sales Model, with 60% aware but with little or limited knowledge. SMEs are less likely to be aware and knowledgeable, which creates a communications challenge for OEMs.
Fleetsizebandings
AwarenessoftheAgencySalesModel
(6+car fleets / n=400)
I had not heard about it before today
I have heard of it but don't know much about it
I have heard of it and know a little
I am fully aware of it and how it works
Q - Which of the following best describes your awareness of the Agency Sales Model?
Summary and next steps
Summary
Fleets are demonstrating confidence in their growth outlook and are largely confident in meeting the 2030 deadline on the ban of new petrol & and diesel vans. They seek flexible options to access vans in the short term whilst navigating a turbulent economy. With fleets expecting to explore ways to accommodate electric vans, expect a shift in suppliers supporting them with vehicles, funding, and services.
Fleet Outlook tracks fleet priorities, and the insights inform proposition development, resourcing, targeting, and communications.
Nextsteps
Review the key findings and share them with the leadership team.
Overlay the fleet priorities with strategic priorities to reinforce the businesscase. Proposition development, review any plans in line with the car and van outlook report. Identify processes that may require attention to help reflect the changing needs of van fleets, specifically:
CRM– prioritise activities with fleets mostlikely to invest in finance lease
Training – ensure that knowledge levels on electric vans are high; this will inspire confidence in future engagement. Align communications plans with the latest Media Tracker trends to increase your brand awareness score. Incorporate data into financial metrics.
The full report, leadership briefings, and insight-based training are now available to inform stakeholders and customerfacing resources on the latest #fleettrends, for details go to www.360mediagroupltd.com
Insights correct at publication.
Warning: these insights are commercially sensitive and are not for sharing outside of your organisation unless permission is granted in writing.
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