November 2019
DUBLIN
Mastercard SpendingPulse
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q3 2019*
SOLID RETAIL SALES GROWTH IN DUBLIN DIVERGES FROM WEAKER PERFORMANCE NATIONALLY
TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
Consumer spending in the Dublin economy grew by 4.7% (SA*) YoY in the third quarter of 2019. Growth in retail spend in Dublin continues to exceed the National (incl. Dublin) level, which recorded a YoY increase of 2.5%. Regarding annualised changes, this quarter has seen further divergence in spending growth between Dublin and nationally.
On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.6% QoQ in Q3 2019. This follows 2.3% QoQ growth in the second quarter, and a slight contraction (-0.1%) in Q1. Nationally, the pace of QoQ growth in retail slowed down significantly, from 1.0% to 0.1%. Again, the Dublin vs National divergence is marked.
Overall retail sales growth in Dublin continued a solid 2019 in Q3 while spending across the rest of Ireland decelerated. Tourism spending from other markets in Europe remain slow in Q3 2019 however USA tourist spending is helping to offset some of that weakness in Dublin.
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
METHODOLOGY
A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
SPENDINGPULSE: SELECTED SUBSECTORS
Dublin consumer spending growth was driven by YoY increases in all four consumption categories, most notably Household Goods (+9.2%). Dublin eCommerce sales growth remains strong, with an increase of 5.1% YoY; this however marks a moderation from the Q2 YoY growth of +9.2%, resulting in a QoQ fall of -2.1%. At a National level, YoY growth was driven by all consumption headings save Discretionary Sales. Annual growth was strongest in Household Goods Sales (+4.7%).
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
IRELAND DUBLIN 125.1
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT
IRELAND DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
restaurants and bars.
IRELAND
BREXIT RELATED WEAKNESS IN UK & GERMAN SPENDING OFFSET BY US AND CHINESE TOURISTS
Total tourism spend in Dublin registered YoY growth of 8.3%* in Q3 2019, although the rate of growth has moderated from 14.4% a year ago. Dublin growth was positively influenced by spending from American (+13.7% YoY) and Chinese (+6.1% YoY) tourists.
UK tourist spending in Dublin contracted for the third consecutive quarter in Q3. This decrease is particularly noteworthy as the UK is historically Ireland’s largest tourist market. Exchange rate volatility and inflation mean that UK holidaymakers have reduced disposable income. A recent report by Barclay’s Bank (2019) indicates 31% of respondents plan to spend more holiday time at home in the UK in 2019 than in previous years, with 20% citing affordability as their main reason for staying
home. Furthermore, a recent Tourism Ireland study has found that 10-20% of UK tourists are considering postponing foreign trips, including those to Ireland, as they reassess household expenditure in light of Brexit. The CEO of Tourism Ireland has called uncertainty the most pressing issue for the sector. From a national perspective tourist spend increased 4.4% YoY. The USA and China have shown consecutive years of buoyant spending growth; with YoY growth in USA tourism spend averaging 16.5% between Q1 2015 and Q3 2019. The tourism sector was provided with a contingency fund of €40 million to shield it from Brexit-related shocks in Budget 2020. However, it is hoped that, new opportunities - such as emerging markets - as well as marketing Ireland both domestically and internationally will negate the need for this safety net.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q3 2019 (SA)
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)