DUBLIN
DESPITE EASING RETAIL SALES GROWTH REMAINS SOLID IN DUBLIN
TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA)
Retail spending in the Dublin economy continues to register strong growth with a 3.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q4 2019. Throughout 2019, the annual growth in retail spend in Dublin has averaged +4.2% compared to an average annual growth rate of +5.6% in 2018. Notwithstanding that, retail spending growth in Dublin exceeded that at a National level (incl. Dublin) in Q4 2019 as has been the case since Q1 2017. On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q4 2019. This marks a slowdown in the rate of growth in recent quarters following QoQ growth of 2.3% and 0.6% in Q2 and Q3 respectively. Quarterly growth has proven to be volatile in both Dublin and Nationally, and so it is difficult to point to a downward trend at this stage.
Retail sales growth rates eased across Ireland in Q4 2019 with sales in Dublin up 3.3% YoY. However this was partially driven by difficult comparisons with Q4 2018 when sales surged. While the growth rates in tourist spending also appear more modest, when taken in the context of strong growth in 2018, the growth in Q4 was solid. While the US economy remains on a solid footing, it is reasonable to expect more positive tourist spending as we enter 2020.
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
METHODOLOGY
A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
DUBLIN
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
SALES OF DISCRETIONARY GOODS CONTRACT
The final quarter of 2019 marked the first quarter in which negative YoY growth was recorded in retail spend on Discretionary goods in both Dublin (-0.7%) and Nationally (-1.3%). However, this was the only component of total sales to register negative annual growth in the quarter. Household goods sales, which are generally correlated with consumer sentiment, grew by 5.6% YoY in Q4 2019 in Dublin. Nationally the rate of growth was more subdued at 1.4% YoY. Online sales continue to register strong positive growth amongst Dublin (+8.7% YoY) and National (+4.3% YoY) consumers.
IRELAND DUBLIN
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
IRELAND DUBLIN 194.9
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT Hotels, restaurants and bars. IRELAND DUBLIN
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
IRELAND DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
furniture, electronics and hardware.
GROWTH IN TOURISM SPENDING EASED FOLLOWING STRONG GROWTH IN Q4 2018
Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin was subdued in the final quarter of 2019, registering YoY growth of 3.7%*. This follows growth of 8% and 6.5% in Q2 and Q3 respectively and double-digit growth throughout 2018. The average annual growth rate in 2019 was 7.9% compared to 13.4% in 2018. The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China has been declining in recent quarters. In the Chinese market tourism spend registered 19.1% YoY growth in Q4 2018 compared to 4.1% in the final quarter of 2019, while the rate of growth in the US market has been declining since Q2 2018 (16.1% YoY) and now stands at 12.4%. The UK market continues to struggle amid Brexit fears and exchange rate volatility. Spending in this market registered -0.4% YoY growth in Q4 2019 and is the third consecutive quarter of decline.
A similar narrative emerges at a National level with 4% YoY growth recorded in Q4 2019 following a period of double-digit growth throughout 2018. Positive annual growth in the UK market may indicate that UK tourists are finding better value for money in locations outside of Dublin. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US market is the main driver of growth nationally, with annual spend up 9.9%.
Recently published data from the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation identified that tourism spend across Ireland in 2019, estimated at €9.3 million, was down 1% on 2018. This marked the first decline in the value of tourist spending in eight years. Brexit, increased business costs and a return to the 13.5% VAT rate were cited as reasons for the decline.
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q4 2019 (SA)
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
+1.9%
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
+4.1%
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)