issue 17
MAY 2019
In this issue LATEST DUBLIN ECONOMIC DATA IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE DUBLIN'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOW AT LOWEST LEVEL IN 12 YEARS page 12
page 14
dr. robert butler director centre for sports economics & law university college cork
peter byrne ceo, south dublin chamber
the economics of sport
collaboration driving sustainable business
WELCOME
HIGHLIGHTS Dublin’s workforce exceeds 700,000 (SA) in Q4 2018 with the unemployment rate below 5% for the first time since since Q4 2017. Residential rents reached €1,650 during Q4 2018 however, a QoQ decline of 0.8% may signal the first signs of market stabilization. Residential property prices have recorded MoM declines for four consecutive months, the longest spell of declines since February 2012. Public transport trips in 2018 saw record levels of public transport usage with over 223 million trips recorded, an increase of 6% on 2017 figures. Housing completions for Dublin rose to 6,932 marking YoY growth of 21.5% for 2018. Dublin office rents have remained unchanged for 6 consecutive quarters however overall City Centre rents have increased by 18% since Q4 2008. The Mastercard Dublin SpendingPulse shows consumer spending in the Dublin economy grew buy 4.3% (SA) YoY Q1 2019. Overseas tourism spending increased by 15.1% (SA) but UK tourist spending declined by 5%. The Dublin MARKIT PMI Output across the Dublin economy continued to increase sharply during Q1 2019 with the construction sector registering the sharpest rise in business activity
COVER IMAGE: TALLAGHT STADIUM COURTESY OF BEN RYAN
2 //
WELCOME TO THE MAY 2019 ISSUE OF THE DUBLIN ECONOMIC MONITOR
T
he Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of particular interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services and IHS MARKIT deliver the Dublin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). We also partner with Mastercard to use their SpendingPulse reports to better understand retail and tourism spending patterns. The SpendingPulse is derived from anonymised and aggregated card transaction data as well as other means of payments such as cash and cheques. This data helps the city develop new insights on the spending patterns of Dubliners Dublin City Council
South Dublin County Council
and tourists, as well as comparing the Capital's performance to the whole of Ireland (see centrefold supplement). The special articles this quarter include one from Dr. Robbie Blake, Director - Centre for Sports Economics & Law, University College Cork exploring the Economics of Sport. The second article is written by Peter Byrne, CEO South Dublin Chamber and describes their collaborative and award winning Sustainable Business Program. We hope you find the Monitor useful and welcome any feedback. You can sign up to our quarterly mailing list and access the Monitor resources online at www.dublineconomy.ie. The next release will be published online in August 2019.
Fingal County Council
Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Council
This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.
ECONOMY
GLOBAL ECONOMY
NATIONAL ECONOMY
Global growth for 2019 was revised down by the IMF in April to 3.3% from 3.9% forecast one year ago. The main drivers of this revision include US-China trade tensions, the economic downturns in Argentina and Turkey, the performance in the auto-sector in Germany, tighter financial conditions and the normalisation of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies. Growth is expected to pick up in 2020 to 3.6%, while the Euro Area is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. The US economy is expected to perform above expectations in 2019, but will slow in 2020 as downside risks weigh on the forecasts.
The Irish economy is a positive outlier in Europe, with growth of 6.7% in 2018, and Modified Domestic Demand (which removes the volatile elements of investment) shows underlying growth of 3.3%. 50,000 new jobs were added in 2018, personal consumption rose by 3%, imports by 7% and wages by over 4%. These are all signs of increasing consumer wealth and confidence. Inflation has been low, meaning that wages have been rising faster than prices, translating into increased spending power. Inflation rose above 1% in March for the first time since February 2013. April saw this rate accelerate (1.7%), with the most notable increases in housing and fuel (+4.7%), restaurants and hotels (+3.7%) and transport (+3.7%). The combination of wage increases, which are driving employers to put prices up, and a relatively stable currency has led to the pick-up. Real wages are still growing, but the gap between wage growth and inflation is a critical trend to monitor.
gdp forecast growth, 2019 7 6 5 4
earnings and inflation, 2010-2018
3
4%
2
3%
1
2%
0
China
Indonesia
World
Ireland
USA
Korea
Brazil
Spain
Australia
Russia
Mexico
France
Canada
UK
S. Africa
Japan
Italy
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-1%
Germany
-3
Turkey
0%
Argentina
-2
2009
1%
-1
-2% -3% -4%
source: imf world economic outlook, april 2019
-5%
The UK economy is expected to slow in 2019, and rebound to 2018 levels by 2020. EY’s ITEM Club revised its UK growth forecasts down to 1.3% (from 1.5%) in 2019 and 1.5% (from 1.7%) in 2020, assuming Britain leaves the EU on 31 October. Prolonged Brexit uncertainty and subdued business investment were cited as the key factors in the downward revision. UK Q1 2019 GDP growth was 0.5%, ahead of expectations. Manufacturers filling orders and stockpiling by firms before the original March Brexit date caused the sector to grow by its fastest level since 1988. UK unemployment (3.9%) is at a 45 year low, while average real earnings (+1.5%) and retail sales growth (+6.7%) are at their highest in two years. It is becoming clear that Brexit is not the only influence on UK economic performance.
major economies gdp growth forecasts 2018 %F global
3.6
2019 %f
2020 %f
Average weekly earnings
CPI inflation
source: central statistics office
Looking across a basket of indicators, the outlook for Ireland remains strong, despite ongoing Brexit risks. Employment is expected to grow by 2.0%, wages by 4.2% and consumption by 2.5% in 2019. The increased employment, coupled with higher wages will boost the economy further, although this is likely to cause the historically low inflation to rise.
irish macroeconomic growth forecasts 2019 %F
2020 %f
gnp
3.4%
3.5%
gdp
3.8%
3.3%
private consumption
2.5%
2.3%
5.2%
3.8% 5.6%
3.3
3.6
public expenditure
uk
1.4
1.2
1.4
investment
7.0%
us
2.9
2.3
1.9
exports
4.8%
4.7%
5.6%
5.5% 4.8%
euro area
1.8
1.3
1.5
imports
germany
1.5
0.8
1.4
unemployment rate
5.1%
japan
0.8
1.0
0.5
employment
2.0%
1.7%
china
6.6
6.3
6.1
modified final domestic demand
3.9%
3.5%
india
7.1
7.3
7.5
modified total domestic demand
3.6%
3.2%
source: imf world economic outlook, april 2019
sources: ey economic eye forecasts. f: forecast
// 3
DUBLIN ECONOMY
ECONOMY CONTINUES ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY AS UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES RECORD LOW SINCE THE BOOM
however house prices now showing signs of a slowdown, DUBLIN’S WORKFORCE CONTINUES ON STRONG UPWARD TRAJECTORY For the first time in the series history, Dublin’s workforce reached 700,000 at the end of 2018. A previous peak in employment was recorded at the cusp of the economic crisis in Q4 2007 when the workforce in the Capital peaked at 652,000, some 48,000 fewer than the current level. One of the key differences between then and now is the contribution of the construction sector to the overall workforce. Twelve years ago the construction sector made up 7.7% of the total Dublin workforce. Today it is closer to 4.5%. Lower dependence on the construction sector will help to insulate the local economy from any potential slowdown in the coming years. Of all the sectors which make up the total workforce, the greatest growth has come in the ICT sector. Since 2007, the number of people employed in ICT has increased by 43% and the sector now makes up 8.9% of the workforce, compared to 6.7% at the end of 2007. In 2018, some 18,000 technology related jobs were created in Ireland, with close to 40% of these based in Dublin and Leinster. A concern now, for ICT firms in particular, is that it will become more difficult to fill these positions as the market reaches full employment. A recent white paper published by Code Institute in Dublin has identified concerns regarding the country’s ability to meet demand for digital skills, with approximately 12,000 positions set to remain unfilled by 2020. Many of these positions are expected to be Dublin-based and such a shortfall in talent could have a direct knock-on impact on productivity and growth. In the final quarter of 2018, Dublin’s unemployment rate fell below 5% for the first time since Q4 2007. With employers ranking talent retention and attraction as one of their biggest concerns for the
4 //
coming months, over and above the threat of Brexit (EY Economic Eye Winter 2019), policy changes (e.g. around childcare) may be required to see the participation rate increase above the current level of 66% in Dublin. OTHER INDICATORS TELL A SIMILARLY POSITIVE STORY With Dublin’s workforce continuing on its upward trajectory, after what appeared to be the first signs of a stabilization in the economy in Q3 2018, growth has resumed in Q4. Indicators such as passenger numbers on public transport, passengers through Dublin Airport and throughput at Dublin Port, all appear to have rebounded in the final quarter of 2018. Dublin Port recorded strong YoY import and export growth in Q1 2019. Exports, in particular, recorded the strongest YoY growth since Q3 2017 and registered growth of 5.9%. This compares to YoY growth of 1.1% in Q4 2018 and -0.5% in Q3. With a 10-year €1 billion investment programme in place, Eamon O'Reilly, Chief Executive of Dublin Port stated:
“With all the economic uncertainty, volumes through Dublin Port are remarkably robust and underpin the need for us to continue to invest in additional port infrastructure guided by our own Masterplan 2040 and by Project Ireland 2040.” Passenger numbers on the four main modes of public transport in Dublin also recovered in the final quarter of 2018. A total of 223 million passenger trips took place in the year, an increase of 6% over 2017. The greatest number of passenger trips were recorded
DUBLIN ECONOMY
“Of all the sectors which make up the total workforce, the greatest growth has come in the ICT sector” on Dublin City Bus, with 141.5 million trips taking place, followed by 41.7 million trips on the LUAS, registering growth of 10.7% over 2017 levels. HOUSE PRICE GROWTH IS BEGINNING TO SLOW While a number of indicators appear to have rebounded from the ‘levelling off’ identified in late 2018, house prices continue on a downward trend. In February 2019, Dublin house prices recorded the fourth consecutive MoM decline since February 2012. The YoY growth rates have also slowed, for the first time since February 2012 – recording 1.4% YoY growth in February 2019, compared to doubledigit growth 10 months previously. Outside Dublin house prices appear to have stabilised too (7.5% YoY growth, Feb 2019), though not to the same extent as recorded in Dublin. Potential reasons for this slowdown are numerous. Following an extended period of strong double-digit price growth, there is now a significant affordability issue in the market. A recent affordability report from Knight Frank has found that Dublin is now one of the least-affordable places to buy a home across 32 international cities. Central Bank rules appear to be having a significant impact on the housing market, with an appreciable drop in the numbers obtaining mortgage approval for properties in excess of €350,000 nationally. This is creating a ceiling on house prices which is now becoming evident in the data. Finally, housing supply in Dublin, and nationally, continues to increase. In 2018, 6,932 houses were completed in Dublin, an increase of 27% on 2017 levels. The pipeline of housing was also healthier in 2018 than it was in previous years. A total of 7,707 housing commencements were registered in 2018, 10% up on the total recorded in 2017. Improvements in housing supply are also likely feeding into the first decline in average Dublin rents recorded since Q1 2016. The situation in the housing market is still difficult, with homelessness figures in the capital now in excess of 7,000. However there does now appear to be positive momentum on the supply side of the market as commencements exceeded completions throughout 2018 which will have a positive impact on the overall market.
Amretpal Virdee, Economist at IHS Markit, commenting on the continued increase in output across Dublin, stated:
“The Dublin economy showed further signs of strength at the start of 2019. Output growth remained sharp, despite easing to the slowest since Q2 2013. Divergences were noted at the sector level, with substantial expansions of the services and construction sectors contrasting with a marked decline in manufacturing production. This was the first in seven years and likely reflects a combination of Brexit uncertainty and the wider manufacturing slowdown seen across Europe in recent months.” Consumer spending, as captured by the Mastercard SpendingPulse has also continued on an upward trajectory in Q1 2019. Overall sales grew by 4.3% YoY, driven largely by spending on entertainment, which registered 12% YoY growth. Speaking on the latest results on overall sales and tourism spend, Michael MacNamara, Mastercard SpendingPulse stated:,
“Both Ireland and Dublin experienced a mild deceleration in retail sales growth rates in Q1 2019. For Ireland, sales slowed to 3.7% YoY (SA) and in Dublin sales growth slowed to 4.3% YoY (SA). Tourist spending continued its strong performance rising by 15.1% YoY (SA). Weakness in spending from the UK was offset by an acceleration from other major regions. Overall spending growth, outside of the U.K., looks like it has very positive momentum heading in to the high Spring and Summer season.” Slowing growth in China and the US, as well as other prominent global economies will inevitably feed through to Ireland’s small open economy. Similarly, Brexit uncertainty is set to continue, potentially at least until 31 October. Despite these risks, and other challenges presented by the housing market, Dublin’s strong and diversified labour market and a thriving business sector will act to bolster the economy in the event of a downturn.
DUBLIN’S ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM STRONGLY DESPITE GLOBAL CHALLENGES Notwithstanding the issues relating to housing supply, which are likely to ac as a drag on the Dublin economy for the foreseeable future, and Brexit headwinds, the local economy continues to perform strongly.
// 5
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
construction employment takes a dip for first time since 2014 services employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa) industry & constr, employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
q4 ' 18 613.5 23.3 79.3 0.8
Dublin Max 13.7%
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4%
Dublin
Q3 18
Q4 17
Q1 17
Q2 16
Q3 15
Q4 14
Q1 14
Q2 13
0%
Q3 12
2%
Q4 11
Dublin’s unemployment rate has fallen below 5% for the first time since Q4 2007. With the unemployment rate at a National level unchanged, at 5.7% in Q4, there is now a divergence in the unemployment rates recorded in Dublin and the rest of the country. With an additional 26,500 people added to the workforce between Q4 2017 and Q4 2018 there are now 700,000 people employed in the Capital - the highest on record.
National Max 16%
16%
Q1 11
source: cso labour force survey (lfs). dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
18%
Q2 10
dublin unemployment (sa) year on year change % points (sa) dublin employment '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
q4 ' 18 4.9% -1.1 700 +26.5
dublin & national unemployment rate % (sa)
Q3 09
dublin's unemployment rate falls below 5% in q4 2018
National
source: cso lfs. dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
employment by broad sector '000s (sa) 800 Max: 692,800
700 600 500 400
source: cso lfs. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
For the first time since Q3 2014 the number of people in Dublin employed in the construction sector has fallen, by 2.5% YoY. Across the Private Sector, Public Sector and Industry, Construction is the only sector to register a YoY decline in Q4 2018. The Public Sector recorded the fastest employment growth, driven largely by robust 29.3% YoY growth in Public Administration.
300 200 100 0
Q4 09
Q4 10
Q4 11
Q4 12
Private Sector Services
Q4 13
Q4 14
Public sector
Q4 15
Q4 16
Industry
source: cso. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm note: individual sector values may not sum to total due to rounding
6 //
Q4 17
Q4 18
Construction
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS dublin property prices record four consecutive months of decline
source: cso.
Dublin Max 107.7
110 100 90 80 70
average dublin rents register first qoq decline in two years q4 ' 18 1,650 +120
60
Dublin
Oct 18
Feb 19
Jun 18
Oct 17
Feb 18
Jun 17
Oct 16
Feb 17
Jun 16
Oct 15
Feb 16
Jun 15
Oct 14
Feb 15
Jun 14
Oct 13
Feb 14
Jun 13
Oct 12
Feb 13
Jun 12
Oct 11
Feb 12
Jun 11
Oct 10
Feb 11
40
Jun 10
50
Feb 10
Dublin property prices have recorded MoM declines for four consecutive months. This is the longest spell of MoM declines, since February 2012. There are a number of factors that may be feeding into this trend with improving supply, Central Bank lending rules, and affordability issues amongst the main factors. On an annual basis, Dublin house prices increased by 1.4% in February. Prices at a National level also appear to have stabilised in recent months with no MoM growth recorded in February 2019.
National excl. Dublin
source: cso.
residential rents € €1,750
Dublin Max: €1,663
€1,650 €1,550 €1,450 €1,350 €1,250 €1,150 €1,050 €950 €850 €750
Dublin
Greater Dublin Area (excl. Dublin)
Q4 18
Q2 18
Q4 17
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
Q4 13
Q2 13
Q4 12
€550
Q2 12
€650 Q4 11
In Q4 2018, average Dublin rents recorded their first QoQ decline since Q1 2017. Though only falling by 0.8%, this may be an early signal of a stabilisation in the market. Similar trends were recorded in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) and outside the GDA with QoQ growth of 0.7% and -3.7% respectively. On an annual basis, rents in the Capital increased by 7.8% in Q4, the slowest YoY increase recorded in 2018.
Q2 11
source: rtb.
Q4 10
dublin avg residential rent € per month year on year change €
120
Q2 10
property price index dublin year on year % change property price index national excl dublin year on year % change
feb ' 19 105.1 +1.4 99.9 +7.5
residential property price index (2005 = 100)
Outside GDA
source: rtb. note: gda (ex dublin) is kildare, meath and wicklow.
Completions Max: 1,892
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400
Completions
Q4 18
Q2 18
Q4 17
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
Q2 14
0
Q4 13
200 Q2 13
New housing completions in Dublin edged closer to the 2,000 mark in Q4 2018. Registering YoY growth of 21.5%, compared to 23.1% in Q3 2018, this latest data marks continued improvement. In 2018 6,932 homes were completed in total. Commencements too are now at their highest level in over seven years with 2,240 commencements in Q4 2018 and 7,707 in the year. There is clear upward momentum in the market with commencements consistently higher than completions.
2,000
Q4 12
source: dhplg, cso note: house commencement data is not seasonally adjusted
Commencements Max: 2,240
2,200
Q2 12
q4 ' 18 2,240 600 1,892 335
2,400
Q4 11
total house commencements year on year change total house completions year on year change
dublin housing commencements & completions
Q2 11
Close to 7,000 homes completed in dublin in 2018
Commencements
source: dhplg.
// 7
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS rent level for dublin office space are six quarters unchanged
130 City Centre Max = 118.2
120
South Suburbs Max = 114
110 100 90 80 70 60
City Centre
Q1 19
Q3 18
Q1 18
Q3 17
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
Q1 13
Q3 12
Q1 12
Q3 11
Q1 11
Q3 10
40
Q1 10
50
Q3 09
Office rents in Dublin’s City Centre and Suburbs are now six quarters unchanged – since Q4 2017. Comparing current rates to 10 years ago shows that prime office rent in Dublin City Centre has increased 18.2% while the Suburbs have recorded a rise of 14%.
Q1 09
source: CBRE
Q3 08
city centre office rent index year on year % change south suburbS office rent index year on year % change
q1 '19 118.2 0.0 114.0 0.0
dublin office rents index (2006 = 100)
South Suburbs
source: cbre.
dublin suburbs record 18.8pp drop in vacancy on 2009 peak
dublin office space vacancy rates % 30% Dublin Suburbs Max = 25%
vacancy rate % dublin 2/4 year on year change % points vacancy rate % dublin suburbs year on year change % points
q1 '19 3.9 -1.4 6.2 -1.6
Dublin 2/4 Max = 20.6%
25%
20%
15%
source: cbre.
223 million passenger trips recorded in dublin in 2018 public transport million trips (sa) year on year change million trips (sa)
10%
Dublin 2/4
Q1 19
Q3 18
Q1 18
Q3 17
Q1 17
Q3 16
Q1 16
Q3 15
Dublin Suburbs
source: cbre.
public transport million trips (sa) 60
q4 '18 56.7 +2.7
source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
Passenger numbers on the LUAS continue to rise with 10.8 million passenger trips recorded in Q4 2018. In total 41.7 million passenger trips took place on the LUAS in 2018, an increase of 10.7% on the performance in 2017. All four modes of transport registered YoY increases in Q4 2018, with trips on Bus Éireann showing the strongest growth at 21.1%, albeit from a low base. In total 223 million passenger trips took place in the Capital in 2018, a 6% increase on 2017.
50
40
30
20
10
0
Q3 16
Q4 16
Q1 17
Bus Éireann
Q2 17
Q3 17
Dublin Bus
source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm
8 //
Q1 15
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q3 13
Q1 13
Q3 12
Q1 12
Q3 11
Q1 11
Q3 10
0%
Q1 10
5%
Q3 09
Following the trend of 2018, office vacancy in Dublin 2/4 and the suburbs continues to decline. YoY declines of 1.4 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, were recorded in Q1. Vacancy rates are now at their lowest levels since the series began in 2007, confirming the strong recovery in the Dublin market in recent years. Vacancy rates in Dublin suburbs, for example, have fallen 18.8 percentage points since the peak in Q3 2009 when a rate of 25% was recorded.
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q2 18
Irish Rail
Q3 18
Q4 18
Luas
Ma y 2 0 1 9
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
TM
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS YEAR-ON-YEAR Q1 2019*
+4.3%
+15.1%
OVERALL SALES
+4.1% NECESSITIES
OVERSEAS TOURISM SPEND
+3.4% DISCRETIONARY
+6.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS
+9.7% ECOMMERCE
+12.0% ENTERTAINMENT
*RETAIL SALES VALUE (SA)
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| May 2019
TOTAL DUBLIN CONSUMER SPENDING GROWTH EASES MODESTLY IN Q1 TOTAL RETAIL SALES INDEX (SA) 130
122
+4.3% YoY
125 120
119
115
+3.7% YoY
110 105
DUBLIN
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
95
Q1 14
100
IRELAND
Both Ireland and Dublin experienced a mild deceleration in retail sales growth rates in Q1 2019. For Ireland, sales slowed from 4.2% YoY (SA) in Q4 2018 to 3.7% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019. Dublin sales growth slowed from 6.9% YoY (SA) in Q4 2018 to 4.3% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019. While retail spending in Dublin increased YoY, on a quarterly basis there was no change recorded. This may be linked to lower than normal quarterly growth rates in Necessities (0.1% QoQ, SA) and Discretionary Sales (0.2% QoQ, SA).
Tourist spending remained robust in Q1 growing by 15.1% vs Q1 2018. While UK tourism spending was weak (-5% YoY) spending from virtually all the other major regions we track saw accelerations in spending growth. One interesting area is tourism spending from China where Q1 2019 growth was almost 19% vs Q1 2018. This contrasts with many reports of falling Chinese tourism spending in the USA in recent months. Outside the UK, tourism spending has very positive momentum heading in to the high Spring and Summer season.
Tourism spending grew by 15.1% YoY in Q1 with weakness in UK spending being offset by strong trends from other major regions.
Michael McNamara
GLOBAL HEAD OF SPENDING PULSE, MASTERCARD
DUBLIN RETAIL SALES VALUE INDEX (SA)
+4.3%
121.9
+0%
YOY GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
DUBLIN SALES INDEX VALUE
QOQ GROWTH IN DUBLIN SALES INDEX
Q1 2019
100 = Q1 2014
Q1 2019
METHODOLOGY A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
2
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
STRONG GROWTH IN ENTERTAINMENT CONTINUES TO DRIVE OVERALL SPEND
178
190
+9.7% YoY
180 170
172
160
+14.1% YoY
150
| May 2019
140
On an annual basis, Dublin consumer spending in Q1 2019 was positively influenced by all four consumption types covered in the SpendingPulse. The strongest growth came from Entertainment with 12.0% growth YoY (SA). This is the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth in Entertainment spending in Dublin. Nationally, consumer spending increased by 3.7% YoY (SA), driven by similarly strong growth in Entertainment. Online sales in Dublin rebounded to 9.7% YoY (SA) in Q1 2019 following growth of 2.7% (SA) in Q4 2018.
130 120 110 100
IRELAND
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
90
DUBLIN
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
124
130
121
125
+4.1% YoY
+3.4% YoY
125
120
120
115
115
116
+2.1% YoY
DUBLIN
IRELAND
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
RETAIL CATEGORY: HOUSEHOLD GOODS
151
157
160
+12% YoY
150
DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT 160
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q1 14
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
95
Q4 14
95
Q3 14
100
Q2 14
100
Q1 14
+3.3% YoY
105
105
IRELAND
116
110
Q2 14
110
+6.9% YoY
150
140
140
141
IRELAND
DUBLIN
3
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
DUBLIN
Household furniture, electronics and hardware.
Hotels, restaurants and bars.
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q1 14
Q1 19
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
90 Q4 14
90 Q3 14
100
Q2 14
100
Q1 14
110
Q4 14
120
110
IRELAND
+1.4% YoY
Q3 14
120
144
130
+10.9% YoY
Q2 14
130
TM
DUBLIN Mastercard SpendingPulse
| May 2019
REDUCED UK TOURIST SPENDING OFFSET BY NOTABLE GROWTH FROM CHINESE & GERMAN MARKETS For the fifth consecutive quarter tourism spend in Dublin has registered YoY growth in excess of 10%. Growth in Dublin in Q1 2019, of 15.1% (SA), was largely driven by the Chinese and German markets, registering growth of 18.8% (SA) and 18.5% (SA) respectively. The US (14.9% YoY) and French (16.2% YoY) markets also contributed strongly to overall tourism spend in Dublin.
uncertainty created by Brexit, as well as the knock on effects on exchange rates and affordability perceptions of the Capital may all be feeding into this trend. Nationally (incl. Dublin), growth of 3.5% YoY (SA) in tourism spend by the UK market was recorded in the first quarter of the year. Indeed, the data suggests that the UK market may be choosing to spend their money outside of the Capital. Quarterly, UK tourism spend rose by 2.3% (SA), the highest rate of quarterly growth since Q2 2016. Overall, tourism spend Nationally came in at 12.9% YoY in Q1 2019. The German market was the strongest contributor to the National performance, registering 15.6% YoY (SA) growth in Q1.
Following three quarters of positive YoY growth in UK tourism spend in Dublin, at the end of 2018 it appears now that market has taken a negative turn at the start of 2019. In Q1 2019, tourism spend by the UK market fell by 5% YoY (SA). This downward trend is more evident on a quarterly basis with the market registering negative QoQ growth since Q2 2018. The
DUBLIN AND IRELAND TOURIST SPEND BY ORIGIN - Q1 2019 (SA) OVERALL
+12.9% +15.1%
+3.5% -5.0%
+14.2% +14.9%
+15.6% +18.5%
+11.6% +16.2%
+13% +18.8%
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY OVERALL INCREASE IN TOURSIM SPEND IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
IRELAND
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
DUBLIN TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
Q1 2014 = 100
Q1 2014 = 100
200
200
190
190
180
180
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
All
UK
158.2
170
154.1
160
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
DUBLIN
IRELAND TOURISM SPEND SALES INDEX (SA)
170
YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN
USA
Germany
France
100
China
All
UK
USA
Germany
France
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q4 2017
Q4 2018
4
China
DUBLIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000
Q4 18
Q2 18
Q4 17
Q2 17
Q4 16
Q2 16
Q4 15
Q2 15
Q4 14
4,000
Q2 14
4,500
Q4 13
Quarterly data published by the CSO indicate that total passenger numbers reached a new peak in the final quarter of 2018. A total of 8.05 million passengers passed through Dublin Airport in Q4, meaning a total of 31.3 million passengers came through the airport in 2018. This represents an increase of 6.1% over the total passengers recorded in 2017.
Max: 8.05m
8,000
Q2 13
source: cso. note: change in the series from monthly data to quarterly data seasonally adjusted by cso
8,500
Q4 12
total passengers '000s (sa) year on year change '000s (sa)
q4 2018 8,052 503
dublin airport arrivals '000s (sa)
Q2 12
31.3 million passengers through dublin airport in 2018
source: cso.
10
q1 ' 19 3.89 0.22 5.93 0.36
8 7 6 5
source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm. note: imports and exports may not add to total throughput due to seasonal adjustment and rounding.
4
Following what appeared to be a stabilisation in port activity in the latter half of 2018, data for Q1 2019 shows a distinct rebound in throughput. In Q1 2019, throughput at Dublin Port reached 9.8 million tonnes (SA). Both imports and exports have contributed strongly to this growth, with exports in particular registering 5.9% YoY (SA) in Q1, the strongest annual growth in export activity at the Port since Q3 2017.
2
dublin hotel average daily rates up 6.3% yoy in december 2018 hotel occupancy rate % (sa) year on year change %age point index of hotel room supply (sa, july 2013=100)
year on year change %
mar '19 84.1% 0.0 108.9 4.6%
Max: 9.8 million tonnes
9
3
Total Tonnage
Imports
Q1 19
Exports
source: dublin port. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
dublin hotel average daily rates (sa) 110
€150
Maximum: €146
108
€140
106 104
€130
102 100
€120
source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
98 €110
96 94
€100
Average Daily Rate €
Mar 19
Jan 19
Feb 19
Dec 18
Nov 18
Oct 18
Sep 18
Aug 18
Jul 18
Jun 18
Apr 18
May 18
Mar 18
Feb 18
Jan 18
Dec 17
Nov 17
Oct 17
Sep 17
Aug 17
Jul 17
Jun 17
92 €90
May 17
The supply index of hotel accommodation in Dublin was unchanged MoM in March 2019, at 108.9. YoY this represents an increase of 4.6% with an additional 1,000 beds available compared to March 2018. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) has fallen marginally in recent months. Having peaked in August 2018 at €144, the ADR now stands at €142, up 1.2% YoY. According to STR, the supply of hotel accommodation is to increase further with an additional 2,500 rooms due to open in 2019/2020.
Q4 18
Q3 18
Q2 18
Q1 18
Q4 17
Q3 17
Q2 17
Q1 17
Q4 16
Q3 16
Q2 16
Q1 16
Q4 15
Q3 15
Q2 15
Q1 15
Q4 14
Q3 14
Q2 14
Q1 14
Q4 13
Q3 13
Q2 13
0
Q1 13
1 Q4 12
dublin port exports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa) dublin port imports million tonnes (sa) yoy change million tonnes (sa)
dublin port tonnage million tonnes (sa)
Q3 12
thoughput at dublin port hits 9.8 million tonnes in q1
90
Index of Supply
source: str global. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
// 9
DUBLIN IHS MARKIT PMI sharp, but slower rise in dublin business activity
overall ihs markit pmi (sa) 65
dublin
national excl. dublin
60
q1 2019
56.1
55.5
55
year on year change
-1.8 -1.6
-3.1 0.5
50
overall ihs markit pmi
quarter on quarter change
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
45
35 30
65 60
q1 2019
58.2
55.0
55
year on year change
-1.8 0.1
-3.4 0.1
Q1 19
Q1 18
Q1 17
Q1 16
Q1 15
Q1 14
40 35 30
Q1 19
Q1 18
Q1 17
Q1 16
Q1 15
Q1 14
Q1 13
Q1 12
Q1 11
Q1 10
Q1 09
Q1 08
Q1 07
Q1 06
Q1 05
increasing rate of contraction ▼
Q1 04
25
National excl. Dublin
overall pmi employment growth (sa) 65
national excl. dublin
60
q1 2019
56.5
55.6
55
year on year change
-2.0 1.5
-1.7 1.0
50
quarter on quarter change
Q1 13
45
dublin
employment growth
Q1 12
50
Dublin
employment growth increases at faster pace in q1
Q1 11
Q1 10
Q1 09
Q1 08
Q1 07
Q1 05
Q1 04
Q1 06
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
Q1 03
New business recorded at Dublin companies continued to increase at a substantial pace in the first quarter of 2019. Moreover, the rate of growth quickened to the fastest since Q2 2018. The rate of expansion in new business in the Rest of Ireland was slower than recorded in Dublin for the second quarter in a row.
National excl. Dublin
overall pmi new orders (sa)
national excl. dublin
quarter on quarter change
Q1 03
Dublin
dublin
new orders
Q1 02
increasing rate of contraction ▼
Q1 01
25
Q1 02
new business growth fastest since q2 2018
40
Q1 01
Output across the Dublin economy continued to increase sharply during the first quarter of 2019. The seasonally adjusted Dublin PMI posted 56.1, the lowest reading since Q2 2013. Strong output growth was also signaled across the Rest of Ireland, with the rate of expansion quickening from the end of 2018. The construction sector again posted the sharpest rise in business activity during Q1, while services also registered a steep increase. There were signs of a slowdown in manufacturing, however, as it recorded a contraction in output, the first in seven years.
increasing rate of growth ▲
50 = no change
45 40 35 30
Dublin
about The Dublin Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI) series is produced by IHS Markit Economics, an independent research company that produces highly-regarded surveys of business conditions in nations around the world www.markit.com
National excl. Dublin
Q1 19
Q1 18
Q1 17
Q1 16
Q1 15
Q1 14
Q1 13
Q1 12
Q1 11
Q1 10
Q1 09
Q1 08
Q1 07
Q1 06
Q1 05
Q1 04
Q1 03
increasing rate of contraction ▼
Q1 02
25
Q1 01
As has been the case in each quarter since Q4 2012, staffing levels in Dublin increased in Q1 2019. Moreover, the rate of job creation was marked and quickened from that seen at the end of 2018. Companies in Dublin continued to take on staff at a faster pace than the Rest of Ireland, the seventh quarter in which this has been the case.
DUBLIN’S INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS
DUBLIN IN RANKS 3RD IN FDI SMART LOCATIONS OF THE FUTURE
Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below). Dublin ranked 3rd in the fDi Smart locations of the Future 2019/2020, with Dublin’s Smart Docklands, a joint initiative between Dublin City Council and Trinity College’s Connect Centre, ranked number one for FDI strategy. The ranking recognises the initiative which seeks to connect SME’s, residents and local government with technology companies to create a testbed for future innovation. The Mercer Quality of Living report ranks 231 international cities depending on environmental and socio-economic factors. In March 2019 Dublin moved up one place
to 33rd in the Quality of Living ranking. The report cites low levels of air pollution, a strong socio-cultural environment and political stability as the cause for the improvement. Mercer outlines transportation and availability of international schools as two areas with potential for improvement. Dublin remains 19th out of 133 cities for the second consecutive year on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Worldwide Cost of Living Survey. Dublin’s ranking makes it the 10th most expensive city to live in, in Europe. The survey ranks major cities by reference to the cost of a basket of goods. Furthermore, INRIX’s Global Scorecard, ranks Dublin third out of 200+ cities for hours lost in traffic congestion. City Centre congestion is particularly difficult for commuters with Dublin ranking worst for inner city travel time. The IMF’s Global Financial Stability
Report finds that Dublin has recorded one of the highest property price inflation rates from 2013 to 2018, among 22 cities. Average annual real house price growth rate was 10% in Dublin, compared to approximately 7% in London and 2% in New York. ECA International further outlines that Dublin has entered the Top 5 most expensive locations for expat rental accommodation in Europe. In 2019 Dublin climbed 35 places to 26th position on the global ECA rankings. Dublin is now more expensive than Paris, Copenhagen and Stockholm. Dublin ranks 4th in Cushman & Wakefield’s new European Co-Working Hotspot Index, beating European powerhouses such as Munich, Amsterdam, Berlin and Madrid. Dublin ranks above the European average in 12 of the 15 metrics used in the Index.
D U B L I N ' S L AT E S T I N T E R N AT I O N A L R A N K I N G S SOURCE Global Talent Competitiveness Index
BENCHMARK CRITERIA Regulatory, market and business/labour landscape, external and internal openness, education and access to growth opportunities and, sustainability and lifestyle Economic potential, innovation and attractiveness, FDI performance, cost effectiveness and connectivity
YEAR
RANKING
CHANGE‡
2019
35
▼
2019
3
Mercer 2019 Quality of Living Survey
Environmental/socio-economic
2019
33
▲
Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI)
Business environment, financial sector development, infrastructure, human capital, reputational & general factors; online survey
2019
38
▼
The Economist Intelligence Unit Worldwide Cost of Living 2019
Price comparison across 160 products and services
2019
19
-
2019
26
▲
2019
1
fDi Smart Locations of the Future 2019/2020
ECA International 2019
Average rental prices for a three-bedroom apartment in the mid-range of the expatriate market Average Annual Real House Price Growth in Selected Economies and Cities
RCA Capital Liquidity Scores Report
Property liquidity
2019
25
INRIX 2018 Global Traffic Scorecard
Hours lost in congestion
2018
3
▲ -
Cushman and Wakefield European coworking hotspot index
40 European cities ranked by a weighting of elements including scale, business environment, people and catalyst factors.
2019
4
-
Knight Frank Global Affordability Index
House prices and rent as portion of income and Finance
2019
-
IMD World Talent Ranking
Developing, attracting and retain high skilled workers
2018
21
WorldFirst European Buy-to-Let League
Property and rental prices
2018
1
Mercer 2018 Cost of Living Survey
Cost of consumer goods and services
2018
32
▼ ▼
International Monetary Fund
‡change on previous publication of the relevant benchmark. an upward-pointing arrow denotes an improvement.
// 11
DUBLIN IS VIBRANT!
THE ECONOMICS OF SPORT DR. ROBERT BUTLER
DIRECTOR – CENTRE FOR SPORTS UNIVERSITY COLLEGE CORK
Like many influences on the state today, concepts that emerge in North America and spread to the United Kingdom, often find a home on these shores. Sports economics is no different.
Gaelic Football and hurling dominate almost half of all competitive sport but are amateur.
�
12 //
The study of the economics of sport is very much in its infancy in Ireland however, as a research area it is probably older than most people think. The first study concerning the economics of sport can be traced to 1956 when Simon Rottenberg examined the labour market for baseball. It took almost 15 years for the topic to appear in England, but in 1969 Peter Sloane examined the labour market for professional football. In both cases labour market issues were the motivation for such research. Considering labour market issues in an Irish context is almost impossible. Most sport played on this island is amateur. Whether for reasons of sporting identity, or simply because the demand for such labour does not exist, those paid to play sport in Ireland are an exceedingly small group of people. A closer look at how sport is played here reveals just how few people earn a living from professional sport. In total, it is about 0.7% of the sporting population. Almost 85% of sports in Ireland is played/engaged with in an informal or non-competitive manner. This is every form of activity you can imagine, from cycling to
Tallaght Stadium – A County Venue
swimming, to causal games of 5-a-side, as well as athletics or simply keeping fit. The remaining 15% of sporting activity happens in a competitive and professional setting. Yet again, the Irish case is somewhat different. The Central Statics Office’s most recent “Sports” module in the Household Budget Survey confirms that the labour market for professional sports persons in Ireland is dominated by domestic rugby. For every 20 players of the sport today, 1 is earning a living from their efforts. About 1 in 50 athletes that compete individually, in sports such as boxing or rowing are professional. Our remaining professional athletes are found playing domestic soccer, and in individual pursuits such as aerobics and dance. Our geographic proximity and historical links to the United Kingdom, in particular England, mean that Ireland is very much an exporter when it comes to sporting talent. This does not mean there is no place for sports economics in Ireland. Quite the opposite in fact. The subject has grown rapidly in recent times, well beyond the scope of labour market issues, and encompasses many different sporting scenarios like competition-design, competitive balance, rule changes and public choice. Undoubtedly, the past number of decades has witnessed a rapid rise in revenues that can be generated from sport. The most successful sports have done this through three main avenues; increasing matchday income, increasing sponsorship revenues and, most importantly, vastly improved broadcasting arrangements. These three are again, less obvious in the Irish sporting context. Importantly, sports economics is much more than just the commercial side of sport. While economics has a part to play in this evolution, one can find many instances where the economics of sport and the business of sport are conflated. There are certainly not the same. The impact of sports economics is more readily found in the limitations of our sports. Frequent change in both competition structure and the rules of our native sports is a good example of this. The AllIreland series, traditionally knock-out competitions, have changed over the past twenty years, and are now a combination of semi-knockout competition and round-robin leagues. The result has been more games and more television broadcasts. The financial impact of this is sizeable, particularly for governing bodies and those located in the vicinity of sporting stadia. Of course,
Ten years on from opening its doors, Tallaght Stadium has become one of the premier sporting facilities in the country by continuing to expand and develop whilst providing a home to Shamrock Rovers and FAI international teams. In 2018, Tallaght Stadium — which is owned and operated by South Dublin County Council — increased capacity to 8,000, improved facilities and hosted such milestone events as the Special Olympics’ Opening Ceremony and the debut of Stephen Kenny as manager of the Republic of Ireland under-21's international football team. South Dublin County Council commissioned a report from Cooney Architects in recent months that explored the option of developing the North Stand of the stadium and boosting capacity to 10,000 whilst providing for greater corporate and press facilities. This work is expected to progress in 2020 to further enhance Tallaght Stadium’s status as one of the top sporting and events facilities in the country.
it would be incorrect to label this as some sort of economic windfall. Much of our consumption of sport domestically is substitution from one good to another. Income effects are felt from international sports tourism. Attracting this remains a challenge for many sports here. But again, the study of sports economics is much more. It can explain why we fund sport and how it is funded. It questions how we structure our games, and importantly, what happens when we change the rules. It attempts to explain far more than headline figures of income and profit. This is quite apt. Sport after all, is much more than money. It is about decision-making both on and off the field of play. Economics is the examination of decision making. They are a natural fit.
// 13
SPECIAL REPORT
COLLABORATION DRIVING SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS BY PETER BYRNE
CEO, SOUTH DUBLIN CHAMBER
South Dublin partnership to deliver Sustainable Business Programme, awarded the ‘Local Authority Collaboration’ Award at the National Chamber of Ireland Awards 2019. In 2011, South Dublin Chamber and South Dublin County Council came together as partners to form the Business Sustainability Programme. This partnership sought to empower business to consider the sustainability and long-term future of their companies while supporting job creation at a local level. The programme was developed in response to the challenges business faced during the recession and its goal was to pool resources to help local businesses survive the recession. However it has evolved into a program aimed at assisting local businesses become more sustainable and increase local employment. The core objective of the program is to provide an experienced “Programme Manager” to support business owners and managers by linking them to state agencies, signposting relevant supports and assist in guiding them through the process. The Business Sustainability Programme is unique as it is the only programme of its kind in Ireland or the UK and takes an innovative approach to helping business solve problems; providing a mechanism to allow for local government and private business to work closely in a partnership model for the benefit of the local economy. It has also created new ways of working that allows for synergies to be formed that offer business a better support service.
14 //
The success of the programme was achieved by actively engaging with local companies, to support business development and job creation in the local community. This initiative was further enhanced with the Local Enterprise Office (LEO) South Dublin joining as a partner in 2014. The Business Sustainability Programme was awarded the ‘Local Authority Collaboration’ Award at the National Chamber of Ireland Awards in March 2019. Chief Executive of Chambers Ireland, Ian Talbot highlighted the unique partnership South Dublin Chamber has formed with Local Government in Ireland.
We already use this program as an example of best practice for other Chambers of Commerce in Ireland and I look forward to seeing the Business Sustainability Programme being replicated in other countries, securing benefits for the partners and the business community” The programme also ensures synergy between South Dublin Chamber and South Dublin County Council in other areas of business, including tourism. The Sustainable Business Programme has been the catalyst for many positive events taking place in the local area for the benefit of the community and business. An example of this is Gaelforce Dublin Adventure Race which takes in running, cycling and kayaking in the lakes, mountains and county capital of Tallaght.
ECONOMIC SCORECARD
DUBLIN: ECONOMIC SCORECARD MAY 2019 Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years and housing completions which cover the past 6 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents that are either too high or too low as well as vacancy rates.
economy ihs markit business pmi q1 2019
46
unemployment rate q4 2018
51
8
40
57
56.1
34
mastercard spendingpulse sales index
110
10
7
105
12
4.9
63
3 month moving average (sa)
115 120
122
100
14
% (sa)
125
index (2014 = 100)
transport airport arrivals q4 2018
6,030
6,710
5,360
7.8 7,380
8,052
4,690
seaport cargo q1 2019
8.4
7.1
9.8
50.9
48 9.1
6.4
000's/quarter
public transport trips q4 2018
9.8
million tonnes/quarter (sa)
45.1
42.2
53.8
56.7
million trips/quarter (sa)
residential property average residential rents q4 2018
1,250
1,390
1,120
981
residential property price index feb 2019
1,650
65
97
105
55
â‚Ź/quarter
1,200
800
87
76 1,520
housing completions q4 2018
108
500
121
index 2005 = 100
1,500
1,892 units/quarter
commercial property dublin city centre office rent q1 2019
460
540
380
296
dublin 2/4 office vacancy rate q1 2019
14 620
700 â‚Ź/sq.m.
700
dublin suburbs office vacancy rate q1 2019
9
25
3.9
17
14
20 10
30
%
21
6.2
25
%
sources: cso, pmi markit; seaport cargo dublin port; public transport nta; residential rents prtb; commercial property cbre research
// 15
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WWW.DUBLIN.IE