IHS MARKIT DUBLIN PMI
MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE
COVID-19 SHUTS DOWN DUBLIN'S ECONOMY
PAGE 12
COVID-19: THE CASE FOR SMALL BUSINESS SUPPORTS
PAGE 14
COVID-19 ACCELERATES DIGITALISATION
Dublin’s unemployment rate rose marginally to 4.6% in Q1 with a sharp COVID-19 related increase expected to follow, in line with the National COVID-adjusted unemployment rate which rose to 28.2% in April (NSA).
COVID-19 saw business activity in Dublin grind to a halt in Q1 2020 with the Markit PMI index indicating contraction for the first time in over seven years.
Public transport trips in Dublin reached 57.3 million in Q1 2020, a 4.7% YoY decrease as movement restrictions were implemented.
Throughput at Dublin Port fell for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q1 2020, bringing the YoY decline to -4.7%. Both export and import activity were lower, falling -4.9% and -4.7% YoY respectively, and are set to fall further as COVID-19 restrictions disrupt international trade.
Dublin’s hotel occupancy rate fell dramatically to 33% in April 2020 (a decline of 57% YoY) as a direct result of COVID-19 related restrictions on travel and movement by Governments worldwide. The Average Daily Rate (ADR) for hotel rooms in Dublin fell to €99 in Q1 2020, -29.8% YoY.
Passenger numbers through Dublin Airport in Q4 2019 stood at 8.1 million, down -1.3% on the previous quarter. Provisional data from Dublin airport points a 57% annual fall in March.
The Dublin Economic Monitor is a joint initiative on behalf of the four Dublin Local Authorities, and is designed to be of interest to those living and doing business in Dublin or considering locating here. It is produced by EYDKM Economic Advisory Services and IHS MARKIT deliver the Dublin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
We also partner with Mastercard to use their SpendingPulse reports to better understand retail and tourism spending patterns in Dublin and nationally (see centrefold supplement).
This is the first Monitor since the COVID-19 restrictions on movement were imposedand the economic data shows the initial impact this is
having. The articles this quarter also focus on COVID-19. The first, from economist Colm McCarthy, explains the importance of business supports to help SMEs survive this crisis. The second article is by Juliet Passmore, an Economist at Dublin City Council, looking at some of the results of the latest “Your Dublin Your Voice” survey which examined the effect that COVID-19 is having on the lives of Dubliners.
The next edition will be published in September 2020.
This document provides general information on the Dublin economy. It is not intended to be used as a basis for any particular course of action or as a substitute for financial advice. The document is produced independently by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services; the views and opinions expressed are those of the relevant author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Dublin Local Authorities. The Dublin Local Authorities disclaim all liability in connection with any action that may be taken in reliance of this document, and for any error, deficiency, flaw or omission contained in it.
With COVID-19 making growth prospects highly uncertain worldwide, the IMF’s recently published forecasts for April 2020 show that global GDP growth is projected to contract sharply in 2020 (-3%), some 6 percentage points lower relative to the IMF’s January projections. The IMF notes the difficulty in forecasting global growth this year and next due to the complexities involved in predicting the pathway of the pandemic, the intensity and efficacy of containment, changes in consumer behaviour, and the repercussions of the tightening in global financial conditions.
The United States has now become the global epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic with over 1.5 million cases and 90,000+ deaths recorded as of 19 May, 2020.1 The implications for the wider economy have been illustrated, in part, by a sharp spike in unemployment which increased to 14.7% in April from 4.4% in March. This marks the highest rate and largest one-month increase in the history of the series (since 1948). The outlook for the US is difficult to predict at this stage with a fractured Federal and State response to the pandemic. However, the IMF forecast that headline GDP growth in the US may fall by some 8 percentage points in 2020 relative to 2019.
The UK is now considered to be the epicentre of the pandemic in Europe with more than 34,700 coronavirus deaths recorded.2 The projected outlook for the UK, from an economic perspective, appears equally challenging with IMF forecasting growth of -6.5% in 2020, from 1.4% recorded in 2019. On 11 May, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced plans to ease strict COVID-19 restrictions across the UK. The Prime Minister stressed that anyone who cannot work from home should be actively encouraged to go to work. Similar directions across the UK’s other constituent nations – Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – appears unlikely, with Northern Ireland publishing its own five-step plan.
Despite the ongoing pandemic, Brexit negotiations have continued between Britain and the EU with the last round of talks in April. Continued differences remain between the two sides on fisheries, competition rules, and police co-operation. Despite delays in negotiations, caused by the global pandemic, the UK has been clear in their reluctance to seek an extension to its postBrexit transition period which is set to end on December 31, 2020. Failure to reach an agreement by this date will result in the UK’s crashing out of the bloc’s customs union and single market without any trade agreement.
In early-March the CSO published Quarterly National Accounts for Q4 2019 and Year 2019 (preliminary) suggesting that Irish GDP, in volume terms, increased by 5.5% for the year 2019. At the time, the data suggested a continued robust growth rate for the Irish economy in 2020. However, since March Ireland’s economy has been plunged into deep uncertainty.
Aside from the significant human implications arising from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Irish labour market, like many others world-wide has taken an unprecedented knock in the past number of weeks. According to the CSO, the standard measure of monthly unemployment implies an unemployment rate of 5.4% in April 2020. The COVID-19 adjusted measure, which accounts for the share of the labour force that are not working due to unemployment or who are out of work due to COVID-19 and receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment, indicates the rate could be as high as 28.2%.
Predicting the overall impact of the pandemic and the associated lockdown that has been in place since mid-March is extremely difficult and there is some disagreement on the final impact for Ireland in 2020. Both the ESRI and the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) have attempted to quantify the impact and determined that the economy could contract by between - 7.1% (ESRI) and - 8.3% (CBI) while the Department of Finance considers contraction of - 10.5% to be more likely.
irish macroeconomic growth forecasts
Q1 indicators give early snapshot of dramatic contraction in economic growth
Following eight years of robust growth, COVID-19 has shutdown large swaths of the Dublin economy. The future for many firms and jobs is now highly uncertain”
Following uninterrupted growth for nearly eight years, COVID-19 has brought the national and Dublin economy to a shuddering halt. The latest Dublin Economic Monitor reveals early evidence of the extent of the slowdown in economic activity in Q1, including:
The Dublin PMI (49.9) signalling the first contraction in private sector activity since Q3 2012.
Annual employment growth slowing considerably to 1.9% from 3.4% in Q4 2019.
Public Transport trips declining by 5.8% compared Q4 2019.
Estimated 20% annual decline in passenger arrivals at Dublin airport and collapse in hotel occupancy to 33% in April 2020.
Dublin's unemployment rate ticked higher in Q1 2020 to 4.6% from 4.5% in Q4 2019 while employment fell 0.1% QoQ to 721,400. However, with the full impact of the COVID-19 job losses to be felt from Q2 onwards, this rate will move sharply higher from here. On an annual basis, the Q1 unemployment level in Dublin increased to 36,000 from 33,240 in Q1 2019. Employment increased by 13,300, or 1.9% YoY, slowing considerably from the +3.4% annual pace recorded in Q4 2019.
Mastercard’s consumer spending data confirms anecdotal evidence of stockpiling witnessed by many on social media and in their local supermarkets. Q1 spending on necessities (food and other essential items) by Dubliners increased by a 5% YoY, temporarily boosting overall spending growth to an annual rate of 4.3% in Q1 versus 3.3% in Q4 2019. However, this splurge in spending on food and other necessities masked belt-tightening by consumers elsewhere. Spending on discretionary goods & services (-5.1% YoY) and entertainment (-5.7% YoY) declined sharply in Q1, despite Government restrictions not being fully introduced until the second half of March. With stockpiling of necessities unlikely to have continued at the same rate, growth is likely to contract when the Q2 data are released. Longer-term, the outlook for consumer spending is very uncertain and will depend on a confluence of factors such as the duration of the public health restrictions, the eventual hit to household incomes and the risk appetite for consumers to return to the shops, bars and restaurants. One area of spending that should continue to experience robust growth will be e-commerce. In Q1 2020, e-commerce sales in Dublin rose by 10.7% YoY.
Dublin’s housing market also ground to a halt with transactions declining by 6% YoY in March and c.50% YoY in April. While housing completions continued to grow strongly in Q1 (+12% YoY), the temporary shutdown of the sector during Q2 will lead to a sharp contraction for the rest of the year, with housing delivery in the city likely to undershoot the 2019 total of 6,944 units. Another consequence of the COVID-19 crisis has been the increase in the supply of rental properties in some parts of the city, as stock from the short-term holiday market is recycled into the private rental sector. Data from listings website Daft.ie show new stock listed in Dublin reached a five-year high of 2,500 units in March. While it is too early to observe the impact on transaction prices, trends in segments of the Dublin market were already negative and this is likely to persist.
In the commercial real estate sector, the Q1 data point to steady levels of activity, with vacancy rates squeezed further and rental prices remaining at record highs. While too early to discern the future outlook, a lasting trend towards remote working in both the private and public sector could place downward pressure on demand for space in the city. For now, occupier demand, which is concentrated within the tech sector and public bodies, looks relatively resilient.
Tourism has been one of the worst affected sectors in the Capital. This was evident in the sharp decline in arrivals to Dublin airport in Q1 (-20% YoY) but also the shutdown of hotels, restaurants, and pubs in the city. Data from STR reveals the sudden stop in the hotel market in particular, with the occupancy rate in the city declining to 33.1% in April compared to 90.5% in April 2019. In non-seasonally adjusted terms, the occupancy rate was just 12.1%.
Average daily room rates also collapsed by 30% in the year to April. The hotel sector is unlikely to fully reopen until July at the earliest, while the lucrative overseas market is unlikely to recover for the foreseeable future.
One notable point of contrast in the data observed in this edition of the Dublin Economic Monitor is the comparison with the rest of the country. While the national economy has fallen into a recession, those regions with more exposure to sectors such as retail and tourism will experience a deeper and more prolonged decline. In that context, it is notable the PMI and Mastercard data suggest Dublin’s economy has been more resilient through the initial phase of the crisis. This is likely due to the higher proportion of the
workforce within sectors less impacted by the crisis, and the ability of the services sector to work remotely.
Nonetheless, by mid-May over 720,000 persons living and working in Dublin were having their income subsidised or were in receipt of pandemic unemployment payments through the Government schemes. Question marks remain over the viability of many businesses and jobs as Government supports are lifted.
As public health measures are eased, and Ireland slowly gets back to normal, attention will turn to the post-COVID landscape and what changes might occur from the crisis. As was the case in the aftermath of the last recession, Dublin should recover at a faster pace than the rest of the country due to its industry mix of private services, but most forecasters are now discounting any prospect of a ‘V-shaped’ recovery.
Remote working could become a more viable option for workers seeking to avoid long traffic queues and packed public transport, but many also miss the social interaction of their workplace and the vibrant social scene that the city offers. The way we allocate space in the city will need to change dramatically from the 20th century model of maximising traffic movements towards enabling social distancing for pedestrians and more segregated space for cyclists.
Already the local authorities across Dublin are rolling out schemes to enable people to socially distance, such as wider footpaths and pedestrianisation of streets. These changes could also potentially enable cafes and restaurants to utilise outdoor space to operate within new health guidelines. The COVID-19 crisis has brought great challenges, but there are now clear opportunities to re-imagine the city and its economy as we move into the next phase.
source: cso labour force survey (lfs). dublin seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
Dublin's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in Q1 2020 from 4.5% in Q4 2019. With the full impact of the COVID-19 job losses to be felt from Q2 onwards, this rate will move sharply higher from here. However, there were already signs of weakness in the Q1 data. The level of unemployment in Dublin increased to 36,000 compared to 33,240 in Q1 2019 and employment increased by just 13,300, or 1.9%, slowing considerably from the +3.4% annual pace recorded in Q4 2019.
industry AND construction employment contracts in q1 2020
issue
In Q1 2020 Dublin employment growth slowed to +1.9% YoY from +3.4% in Q4 2019, with worse to follow in Q2 2020. Employment growth in services was +2.9% YoY (+17,800), a significant moderation from the +3.7% rate in Q4 2019. Within this, near-flat growth in private services (+0.2% YoY) was offset by growth in the public sector (+9.8% YoY). Industry & Construction contracted by -4.3% YoY (-3,600), a sharp reversal from a growth rate of +1.5% YoY in Q4 2019. This contraction was driven by a fall in the industry sector (-5.9% YoY).
source: cso.
A +0.6% YoY change in March 2020 marked the end of a 7-month spell of house price deflation in Dublin. Prices continue to trend upwards at National level, although the annual growth rate (+1.5% YoY ) is slowly losing momentum. Given current public health restrictions, the outlook is highly uncertain with the market shutdown driving a 15% YoY fall in transaction volumes in March. A recession could put renewed downward pressure on house prices in the capital.
source: rtb.
On an annual basis, the rate of rent inflation in Dublin continued to slow at the end of 2019 with growth of 5% YoY compared to 7.7% YoY in Q4 2018. Q4 2019, saw all regions register marginal QoQ decreases in rents; Dublin (-1.9% QoQ), GDA excl. Dublin (-0.2% QoQ) and Outside GDA (-2.1% QoQ). The COVID-19 crisis will see an acceleration in this downward trend with supply increases from holiday units moving into the private rented sector and a rent increase moratorium. CSO Inflation data already indicate declines in rents in the year to April 2020.
restrictions will eclipse strong start to the year
q1 ' 20
source: dhplg, cso
Housebuilding activity in Dublin was growing strongly in Q1 2020 ahead of the COVID-19 shutdown with QoQ growth of 11.7% in completions. A total of 1,936 homes were added to the stock in Q1 2020 (+12.3% YoY). An additional 3,218 new homes also commenced construction in Q1 2020, a 43.9% YoY change. However, the industry has lost two months of activity and builders have indicated that pandemic related work practice changes will mean extended construction timeframes and increased costs.
source: dhplg.
& completions
source: CBRE
For the tenth consequtive quarter, office rents in Dublin's city centre remained unchanged in Q1 2020, marking the longest spell of stagnation in the history of the series. Rents also remain unchanged in the South Dublin Suburbs QoQ, but increased 3.5% YoY. COVID-19 restrictions mean that demand will be softer for the rest of the year, but the pause in construction activity should guard against oversupply and price declines in the short-term. However, the outlook could weaken with a prolonged downturn in the economy.
office vacancy rates across dublin continue to decline
source: cbre.
Office vacancy rates in Dublin's 2/4 district declined in Q1 2020 to 3.7%. Vacancy rates in Dublin suburbs also continued to decline, standing at 6.1%. Dublin’s suburbs accounted for 44% of overall take-up with the majority located in the south suburbs (69%) followed by west suburbs (28%). Looking ahead, a shift to remote-working and social distancing could significantly shift demand in the office market.
early signs of covid-19 disruption reflected in q1 passenger trips
public transport million trips (sa)
source: nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm.
57.3 million passenger trips were undertaken in Q1 2020. This is down -4.7% on the same period in 2019 and reflects the early impact of COVID-19 prevention measures on the Irish economy. Passenger trips on all four modes of public transport fell in the quarter. Irish Rail recorded the largest decrease in trips (-12%), followed by the Luas (-10.1%), while trips on Dublin City Bus and Bus Eireann fell by -1.5% and -0.8% respectfully. These trends will have accelerated in April.
nta. seasonally adjusted by ey-dkm
May 2020
Dublin Mastercard SpendingPulse Delivering Unique Insights for Consumer and Tourism Spend.
Retail spending in the Dublin economy registered the first signs of COVID-19 restrictions, despite the overall 4.3% YoY (SA*) increase recorded in Q1 2020. Significant increases in spending on necessities offset sharp declines in discretionary spending, with the full impact of the health crisis set to hit the economy in Q2 2020. Growth in Dublin continued to exceed that at a National level in Q1 (+3.1% YoY), in line with the trend throughout 2019.
On a quarterly basis, consumer spending in Dublin grew by 0.8% QoQ in Q1 2020. This marks an acceleration following QoQ growth of 0.5% in Q4 2019. Nationally, quarterly growth remained steady (+0.8% QoQ) in Q1 following +0.9% QoQ in Q4 2019. On a headline basis, the Irish consumer appears to be in rude health, but the rise in Q1 was temporarily boosted by stockpiling of necessities, while the impact of widespread job and income losses will not be fully felt until Q2 2020.
Mirroring patterns seen internationally, spending on essentials at the end of Q1 contrasted sharply with declines in discretionary expenditure. Stockpiling Necessities and Household Goods ahead of restrictions helped offset the largest YoY contraction in Entertainment expenditure since 2014. Meanwhile, online sales have gained momentum, a trend that looks set to continue.
A macro-economic indicator, SpendingPulse™ reports on national and Dublin retail sales and is based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and cheque. This information has been grossed up to present an estimate of the total retail sales of retail businesses in Ireland and Dublin to both residents and tourists. Data is seasonally adjusted but is not adjusted for inflation. Mastercard SpendingPulse™ does not represent Mastercard financial performance. SpendingPulse™ is provided by Mastercard Advisors, the professional services arm of Mastercard International Incorporated. See www.dublineconomy.ie for more info on methodology.
RETAIL CATEGORY: DISCRETIONARY
DUBLIN
Discretionary Retail: Department Stores and Clothing Stores.
METHOD: ECOMMERCE
The most striking out-turn in the Q1 data was the divergence in necessity and discretionary spending. A sharp YoY decline was recorded in retail spending on discretionary goods in both Dublin (-5.1%) and Nationally (-4%), as shops closed, and travel restrictions were introduced in March 2020. In contrast, necessities spending increased sharply in both Dublin (+5.1%) and nationally (+4.4%). Household goods sales grew by 9.6% YoY in Dublin and 5.4% YoY nationally but spending on entertainment plummeted in both Dublin (-5.7%) and nationally (-5%). Online sales accelerated in both Dublin (+10.7% YoY) and nationally (+9.7% YoY) in Q1 2020 as the closure of physical shops saw customers move online.
RETAIL CATEGORY: NECESSITIES
DUBLIN
Non store Retailers including Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses, Direct Selling Establishments.
RETAIL CATEGORY: ENTERTAINMENT
IRELAND DUBLIN
Grocery: all food and beverage stores.
Annual growth in tourism spend in Dublin slowed significantly in the first quarter of 2020, as travel restrictions were introduced, and Patrick’s Day celebrations cancelled. Spending by tourists registered YoY growth of 1%*. This follows growth of 6.1% and 2.9% in Q3 and Q4 respectively and double-digit growth in the year to Q2 2019.
The rate of YoY growth across important markets like the US and China had been declining in recent quarters, but growth turned sharply negative in Q1 2020. In the Chinese market, tourism spending registered -4% YoY growth, while the rate of growth in the US market collapsed to -14%, from a growth rate of +12.6% in Q4 2019. The UK market, in contrast, remained resilient, growing at 1.3% YoY compared to flat growth in Q4 2019.
A weaker picture emerges at a national level with tourist spending remaining flat YoY in Q1 2020 following a period of robust growth throughout 2019.
The UK market was the only market to register positive growth nationally in Q1 2020 at +0.7% YoY. Similar to the situation in Dublin, the US (-1.3%) and Chinese (-16.9%) markets both declined in the year to Q1 2020
These data provide the first glimpse of the sudden stop in tourism in Ireland at the end of Q1 2020, with the effects of COVID-19 likely to be even more damaging to retail and hospitality businesses during the usual peak summer months in Q2 and Q3 2020.
-6.4%
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN IRELAND
-4.0% YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN DUBLIN YOY CHANGE IN SPENDING IN
source: cso.
Q4 2019 saw 8.1 million passengers travel through Dublin Airport in Q4 2019, down -1.3% on the previous quarter. This brings the total number of passengers for 2019 to 32.7 million, an increase of 4.4% YoY compared to 2018. However, travelling has changed completely on foot of COVID-19 restrictions and a considerable drop in passenger numbers is expected with the release of Q1 2020 data. Provisional data from Dublin airport points to a 57% annual fall in March 2020, driving a 20% overall decline in Q1 2020.
source: cso.
The volume decline experienced at Dublin Port towards the end of 2019 continued into Q1 2020. A YoY decline of -4.7% was recorded in Q1, the largest decline since Q3 2009 - exacerbated by Brexit stockpiling in 2019. Both exports and imports were lower, falling -4.9% and -4.7% YoY respectively. The Port Company attributed the decline to COVID-19 and poor weather in February, with worse to follow in Q2.
dramatic fall in occupancy rates following covid-19 restrictions
Dublin’s hotel occupancy rate fell dramatically to 33.1% in April 2020 (-57% YoY) in the aftermath of global restrictions on tourism and travel. The non-seasonally adjusted occupancy rate stood at 12.6% and is unlikely to recover in the near term as restrictions on hotels remain in place until at least July. Dublin's supply of hotel rooms more than halved in April (-53.9% YoY) to a record low. The Average Daily Rate for hotel rooms also collapsed to €99 in April (-29.8%).
The latest Dublin PMI data signalled a stagnation of business activity in Dublin in Q1 2020 with the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hitting output in March. The stagnation in Q1 ended more than seven years of continuous output growth in the capital. Meanwhile, the Rest of Ireland posted a solid contraction in activity. In Dublin, manufacturing production moved into decline, offsetting marginal improvements recorded across the services and construction sectors over the first quarter as a whole.
New orders in Dublin decreased (49.8 in Q1 2020) for the first time since Q3 2012 as the COVID-19 outbreak led customer demand to seize up. The marginal reduction across the first quarter as a whole reflected a steep contraction in March as the effects of the pandemic hit. The Rest of Ireland fared worse than Dublin, seeing the worst decline in new business since the global financial crisis. overall pmi new orders (sa)
Strong job creation over the early part of the first quarter meant that Q1 as a whole saw a continued increase in employment at companies in Dublin. That said, COVID-19 meant that staffing levels had begun to fall in March, and the full effects of the health crisis will be felt in Q2 2020. Employment decreased across the Rest of Ireland in the first quarter, the first time this had been the case for seven-and-a-half years.
Internationally published benchmarks are a useful means of measuring a city’s performance relative to its peers, and recent indicators for Dublin confirm the city’s strong showing across a range of dimensions (see table below).
A well-educated, English speaking workforce, alongside Ireland’s low corporation tax are just some of the incentives that place Dublin top of the table in the Top Headquarter Locations in Europe released by fDi Market. The research from fDi Market notes that in absolute terms, Dublin has been in receipt of the most foreign investment projects in Europe over the past five years, after London, Paris and Berlin.
Dublin is well positioned to attract and nurture a skilled workforce. The capital has increased eight positions to 30th in the Global Financial Centres Index 2020. The index benchmarks major financial centres around the world in terms of competitiveness, economic, legal
and sustainability indicators. The index classifies Dublin as a globally diversified financial centre, performing well in areas of competitiveness including Business Environment (15th) and Reputational (8th).
Dublin has ranked 13th of 132 cities in the world in the Global Talent Competitiveness Index, climbing 22 spots from its 2019 position. The index, which combines a number of indicators including attractiveness, growth, retention levels and building global knowledge, saw Dublin perform strongly in terms of attracting FDI projects (13th) and supplying a tertiaryeducated workforce (11th). However, Ireland, as a whole, ranked low on gender equality (47th), holding back its overall talent hub rating.
Dublin is among the top five most expensive cities to rent in Europe, according to the latest report released by ECA International and is now the 26th in the global rankings. The €207 average monthly jump in rent, places Dublin ahead of other
major capitals such as Paris (€3,461), Madrid (€2,393) and Berlin (€2,354).
With the search for solutions to COVID-19 at the forefront of public concern, Ireland has placed in 6th position in a global index measuring innovative solutions and responses to the global pandemic. Within this, Dublin placed 13th in the global city ranking. Various enterprises are responding to the pandemic by turning to new means of production by manufacturing necessary PPE or ventilator devices. According to Enterprise Ireland, more than 100 client companies are responding to the COVID-19 crisis, through a variety of means, many based in the Dublin region.
Dublin’s universities performed strongly in a ranking which seeks to measure the social and economic impact of universities on the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Trinity College Dublin ranked 14th out of 800 institutions, followed by UCD (34th) and DCU (84th), while TU Dublin placed in 401-600 range.
COLM MCCARTHY ECONOMIST
As lockdown restrictions start to be relaxed, as many small firms as possible need to be supported to resume normal working.
Governments all around Europe have prioritised three areas of extra spending in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Health budgets are unconstrained, those out of work have been provided with household income support and business firms have been offered wage subsidies and holidays from tax payments.
The SME sector is vulnerable for a variety of reasons. Since the emergency will end, perhaps with the availability of a vaccine sometime next year, and since partial release from lockdown will become feasible sooner, as many firms as possible need to be positioned to resume normal working. But small firms, retailers, pubs or professional service suppliers, are often short of assets which can be pledged as collateral for loans and are not an attractive credit risk for banks. The banks themselves are unlikely to exhibit a high appetite for credit risk given the disaster visited on the country a decade ago. In any event it is not desirable that small firms, which employ as much as half the total workforce, should emerge from
the downturn burdened with heavy debts to the taxman, the banks, suppliers, landlords or anyone else.
THERE ARE HUGE COSTS IN RE-ASSEMBLING OTHERWISE VIABLE SMALL FIRMS
Proprietors might go bust or simply shrug and walk away. There are huge costs in re-assembling small firms, otherwise viable, which break up on insolvency. It is not as if someone else can buy the factory from the receiver – there is no factory. Employees may have irreplaceable skills which are employer-specific, hence the wage subsidy designed to prevent redundancy. It is not easy to inject actual equity capital into small firms, although some of the venture capital companies are willing to invest modest amounts into startups. But capital is dwindling rapidly for small firms which are closed, as it has been for those still open but experiencing much reduced turnover.
Business lobby groups have been campaigning for straight grants instead of loans, which would avoid the build-up of unsustainable debt which will follow from bank forbearance or tax deferrals. But taxpayers will fear an outbreak of corporate welfare at huge cost to them, and it would surely be better to explore whether the state can take an ownership stake in return for straight cash. This is what was done with the banks, do not forget, and there is some potential upside for the taxpayers.
There have been some bad ideas put forward, including that insurance companies should pay out business interruption claims even when the policies did not cover pandemic risk. There were no premiums collected to cover such risks and hence there are no corresponding claims reserves. If insurers pay out beyond what they have contracted and charged premiums for, they go bust, in breach of their regulatory obligation to stay solvent. The public then pays, through the Insurance Compensation Fund – people were paying for the collapse of PMPA in the 1980s twenty years later and will be paying for Quinn Insurance twenty years hence.
A better idea is to relieve business firms of outgoings which they are unable to pay. The insurers have indicated that motorists will be getting some money back since road traffic, hence accidents and claims, will fall. Business firms may feel that the same should apply to public and employer liability policies while they are closed. But the insurers are nervous about an avalanche of claims against firms that are open – Walmart in the USA is facing class-action negligence claims from customers who have become infected. The insurers will face fewer claims from some policyholders but bigger claims from others – they pool risk, they do not eliminate it, and Lloyds of London have estimated that the worldwide insurance industry will be out many billions when the dust settles.
The other outgoings, aside from wages, that struggling SMEs can mitigate, are rent and rates. Rent for many, especially in urban areas, is by far the bigger of the two. Rates for a shop unit can be around
It is not desirable that small firms, which employ as much as half the total workforce, should emerge from the downturn burdened with heavy debts to the taxman, the banks, suppliers, landlords or anyone else.”
€10,000 where the rent might be €60,000 in the more central areas. Since rent is highest for the busiest locations, there ought in fairness be a recognition from landlords that the world has changed, and that commercial reality means lower rents. But these are private contracts in which the state cannot interfere, and some landlords will be more reasonable than others.
The government has decided that rates will now be waived rather than deferred, and local authorities reimbursed from central government. This makes sense: even though commercial rates are a tax, there is an implicit understanding that they pay for services provided, and no services are provided when you have been closed by the government. Two issues remain to be addressed – how long will the rates waiver remain in force, and will firms which have stayed open but on reduced hours be entitled to some form of partial discount?.
JULIET
ECONOMIST
DUBLIN CITY COUNCIL
COVID-19 has prompted the acceleration of existing digitalisation trends with potentially lasting implications for the way we work, learn and shop.
One of the most striking things to emerge from the latest Your Dublin Your Voice survey1 is the extent to which the COVID-19 restrictions have seen technology become central to our lives.
Nowhere is this clearer than in the transition to working from home. 75% indicated that they currently remote work on a daily basis compared to 6% prior to the restrictions. This has helped people particularly in Professional Services, Public Administration, Education and the Creative Industries maintain at least a portion of their incomes. It may also go some way to explaining why the survey shows that people are more worried about the broader economy (60%) than their own employment situation (17%).
Education has also adapted quickly with 94% of students2 indicating that they are remote learning. This appears to be a global trend with, for example, Harvard Summer School being hosted entirely online this summer. This dramatic change to the traditional delivery method of mainly face-to-face education has potentially positive implications for accessibility.
Necessity has seen an increase in people getting prepared meals, groceries, alcohol and medicines home delivered. Within this, prepared meals and groceries are the most availed of with 43% and 37% of people respectively getting deliveries at least once a week.
This dramatic change to the traditional delivery method of mainly face-to-face education has potentially positive implication for accessibility.”
This is a significant increase from a December 2018 Your Dublin Your Voice survey where only 5% bought meals for delivery and 4% groceries.
Technology is also playing a large role in our leisure pursuits with more than half watching streamed TV and interacting on social media more. However, both of these were some way behind old fashioned baking where 75% were doing more. There is obviously still room even in our locked down lives for real activities!
The digitalisation of many aspects of our lives has been supported by widespread access to technology. The majority of households have numerous devices, with laptops and smart phones most prevalent. 92% have fixed line broadband with 75% rating it good or very good.
This is positive for the economy, with the OECD rating regions that have a high share of teleworkable jobs as having a lower share of jobs at risk3. However, there are large sections of the economy where digitalisation makes little difference and just over a fifth of respondents have experienced a change in their employment status. Within this 15% are receiving temporary income support while others have seen their hours reduced, work pipelines dry up and invoices go unpaid.
Crises often have profound changes on society. COVID-19 has clearly prompted the acceleration of existing digitalisation trends. How much of this is permanent remains to be seen but it seems likely that there will be lasting implications for the way we work, learn and shop.
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(1)
Note: These "petrol gauge" charts present the performance of the particular indicator relative to a range of performances from most positive (green) to least positive (red). Each gauge presents the latest value compared to the peak value and the trough value over the last decade (except for public transport trips which cover the past 5 years and housing completions which cover the past 6 years). The Commercial Property gauges are red at the high and low extremes, in recognition of the undesirability of rents that are either too high or too low as well as vacancy rates.
