Climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation
especially during the hot and dry summer periods. Pistachio and almond woodlands, as well as floodplain forests are the most prone to fire threats. There is an increased risk of forest fires, which can affect and cause damage to considerable parts of forest areas. People are the main reason for fire forests, however the hot and dry weather creates favourable environment for occurrence and spread of forest fires. Given the energy deficits during the extremely cold winter of 2007-2008, the population was compelled to cut trees growing in the mountain forests, along the river banks and in settlements. Given the continued frost in the southern districts of the country where the forest cover is not adjusted to quick freezing condition, subtropical fruit trees such as fig and lemon, as well as broadleaf ornamental plants and coniferous woody species were badly affected. The date-plum, pomegranate and vines were also affected in almost in all parts of the country.
May 1993 resulted in damage to the ongoing construction of HPP Roghun, while in 2002 a landslide threatened to the HPP Baypazi dam. The expected increase of temperature and precipitation coupled with natural hydro-meteorological events may have different impacts on the hydroenergy sector. The future water balance of the HPPs and reservoirs, namely HPP Kairakkum on the Sirdarya river and HPP Nurek on Vakhsh river to a large extent depends on the scenarios and models of climate change and hydrology. All the models under 'warm and humid' climate change scenarios show an increased river discharge, while under 'hot and dry' scenario the opposite is true.
4.9.2. Economic sub-sectors
The predictions for the HPP Kairakkum vary significantly from an increase in the flow of the Sirdarya river by 20-30% and increased power generation ( the 'warm and humid' scenario) to considerable decrease of flow and reduction in power generation by the end of 21st century. As for the cascade of HPPs on Vakhsh river the predictions of an increased flow vary by 5-50% (an average of 30%) under the 'warm and humid' scenario and a variation in power generation potential of up to ±50% by the end of 21st century under other scenarios.The most negative scenario is the 'hot and dry' model. The models shows that heavier precipitation and an earlier start to the snowmelt may cause a short, but significant increase in the river flow and also increase in the risk of flooding. Despite the increase in suspended loads and silting of reservoirs it is possible that the 'warm and humid' scenario will be accompanied by more frequent and intensive precipitations. This will further effect soil erosion and increase siltation. Climate change will result in an increased frequency and intensity of extreme floods but as yet no quantitative assessment of possible changes has been made.
Hydroenergy production Previous vulnerability assessments of the hydroenergy sector on river Vakhsh has shown that the water dynamics has not significantly affected hydroenergy plants. Floods caused by the rainstorms of
At HPP Kairakkum there is a need to increase the volume of water in the reservoir and improve the infrastructure to be able to receive surplus water flow, and also increase the capacity of the HPP as part of the planned modernisation. The annual
Degradation of pastures is a widespread problem and manifests itself in different ways but primarily through an increase in the proportion of 'nongrazable' grass and decline in the productivity of pastures by 15-25%. In east Pamir, the situation of the alpine pastures is catastrophic where due to a lack of energy resources, the population has started the massive uprooting of teresken resulting in desertification of more than 1 thousand ha of pastures. In the context of climate change the productivity of mountain pastures may reduce. With the progressive drying climate in the southern districts of the country where farming is well developed, increasing desertification processes poses a growing threat to farming and requires response measures.
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