The global pandemic and the opportunities for a green recovery The release of this report coincides with the unprecedent challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic that has affected almost all countries around the globe, and postponed the international climate and biodiversity negotiations. In Central Asia, the health and socioeconomic crisis caused by the pandemic lowered household income, increased prices, and changed the schedules and logistics of renewable energy and climate projects. The regional climate change conference, annually organized by CAREC under the CAMP4ASB project, was postponed and moved to an online format. Over 320 participants took part in discussions of climate actions and responses in the time of a pandemic. Participants noted that softening commercial loan terms, providing financial incentives for climate-relevant projects — including green subsidies and tax breaks — and fostering green public procurement by state-run enterprises and agencies are among the tools for a green recovery. The implications of the COVID-19 pandemic have touched the energy sector across the globe. Travel restrictions and quarantines have kept people off the roads and reduced commercial aviation to the barest minimum. In Central Asia this drop-off in energy demand hit the oil- and gas-dependent economies of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan particularly hard, and created hardships among the migrant workers from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in Russia and Kazakhstan. The International Energy Agency suggests that the pandemic’s effects on energy systems are still unfolding, and that economic recovery and stimulus plans must put clean energy transitions at the center of the agenda (IEA 2020). As a result of the reductions in economic activities caused by the COVID-19 shutdowns, global emissions in 2020 are projected to decline to a level between 4.2 to 7.5 per cent lower than 2019 (Bloomberg news, 2020, Financial Times 2020). This would be the largest annual reduction in emissions ever (IEA 2020). Central Asia’s emissions are no doubt falling as a consequence of the drop in
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economic activity, but both Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are less affected by COVID-19 than the other Central Asia countries, and may not experience significant emission reductions. In Uzbekistan, preliminary data show falling domestic gas supply and growing use of coal, but robust information will not be available until 2021. This drop in emissions comes at a frightful cost in human suffering, but it demonstrates the scale of the challenge facing the world. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (2019), for the world to remain on track to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement, emissions must decline by 7.6 per cent per year every year between 2020 and 2030. An analysis published just before the COVID-19 outbreak finds that despite record levels of global climate finance in recent years, annual investments remain far below what is needed to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal (Buchner et al. 2019). The concept of building back better comes from the experience of disaster risk management, a discipline that is closely aligned with climate resilience. A major proponent of this approach is the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), a grant fund managed by the World Bank to help developing countries manage and reduce their risks from natural hazards and climate change. In its response to the pandemic, the Green Climate Fund points out that its investments in climate resiliency in water resources, health care and agriculture are activities that support a green recovery. The GCF is ready to provide rapid financial support or technical assistance to governments to craft their green economic stimulus measures and strategies for climate-resilient recovery through the GCF readiness programme.
