Tracking the Trail

The Economic Power of the Heritage Rail Trail

By Brendan Salyards | Economic Initiatives Manager

In 2022, the York County Rail Trail Authority completed a study to analyze the use of the York County Heritage Rail Trail and the resulting economic impact from trail use.

While the analysis was sound, the economic impact estimate was based on the result of a single trail counter and the results of an online survey that was advertised along the trail. The study estimated that the annual number of uses was roughly 264,000 and that the total impact was between $2.6 million and $3.9 million. It was suspected at the time that this was an underestimate, but without additional data tools, there was no way to prove that hypothesis. Now, outfitted with data from Placer. ai, we construct a more accurate estimate of the number of visits and the economic impact of the York County Heritage Rail Trail.

Based on those metrics, previously described [see page 14], Placer.ai estimates that there were 468,200 visits in 2022 from 171,600 unique visitors. Over one and a half times the number estimated in the 2022 study. Furthermore, the Placer.ai estimate excludes trail-users in the City of York, where it is difficult to differentiate between individuals using the Heritage Rail Trail and generally moving across the City.

Placer.ai data gives us the ability to differentiate users between visitors and travelers (those who live over 50 miles away) who are highly likely to spend a night in York County during their trip. Based on this figure, we can estimate that there were a total of 27,530 tourism-based visits to the Heritage Rail Trail in 2022. The PA Department of Community & Economic Development estimated that in 2021, Tourism travelers would spend an average of $388 per night on travel. Using this expenditure, we can estimate that the total tourism impact of the trail was $10.7 million in 2022. In addition to updated visitor numbers, Placer.ai gives us the power to see where folks came from and where they went before their trip on the Heritage Rail Trail.

The data also gives us the ability to verify where trail users went before and after their trip. While the 2022 study estimated that approximately 34.6% of trips resulted in soft goods purchases. Placer.ai data shows that trail users were visiting retail and dining establishments before 18.8% of their trips and after 22.3% of their trips. With this additional insight and our revised visitor data, we can more accurately estimate that trail users, residing within 50 miles of the trail, were making purchases that contributed to $8.1 million. Combined, this results in a total economic impact estimate of $18 million (4.5 times the original estimate) in York County just from the York County Heritage Rail Trail.

Based on the latest visitor numbers and accounting for inflation, we can estimate that the direct economic impact of the Heritage Rail Trail on the York County economy was $23.3 million in 2024. Analysis using Implan (an economic impact analysis tool) suggests that spending by the businesses making these sales would generate an additional $17.9 million in indirect and induced impact for a total economic impact of $41.2 million in 2024.

To learn more about the York County Trail Towns program, visit yorkcountytrailtowns.com

2024 York County Heritage Rail Trail - Economic Impact Analysis

• Number of Visits: 499,400

• Number of Unique Visitors: 192,200

• Number of Visits from Beyond 50 Miles: 29.5K

• Estimated Expenditure of an Overnight Visitor: $419

• Tourism Impact: $12.3M

• Estimated Expenditure on Hard Goods: $5.6M

• Estimate Expenditure on Soft Goods: $4.3M

• Indirect Impact: $15.4M

• Induced Impact: $2.4M

• Direct Economic Impact: $23.3M

• Total Economic Impact: $41.2M