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Hello Delegates, We are your Senior Staff, Evelyn Robertson and Dan Mitropolsky, and we are delighted to invite you to the fortieth annual Yale Model United Nations Conference. Welcome to YMUN XL and to the Future Security Council! Evelyn is a junior in Trumbull College at Yale University. As a philosophy major, she is focusing on philosophy of religion and the history of philosophy. She also enjoys painting and graphic design, and is pursuing those interests in the Yale Art Department. Evelyn has been a part of YMUN since her freshman year, when she staffed the Congress of Vienna during YMUN XXXVIII. Last year, in YMUN XXXIX, she served as Undersecretary General for Specialized Committees. Evelyn has also been involved with the Yale International Relations Association’s other constituent conferences, such as the Security Council Simulation at Yale (a collegiate conference) and Yale Model Government Europe (a high school conference designed for European students). Dan Mitropolsky is a Junior in Pierson College. Dan is a math major with a passion for languages. He served as the Under-Secretary General for Delegations last year during YMUN XXXIX. Dan also served as Secretary-General for YMUN-Korea, another conference organized by the Yale International Relations Association. In his spare time, he enjoys bungee jumping over cliffs which overlook rivers infested with piranha. The Future Security Council is one of this year’s Specialized Committees. The goal of the committee is to explore a scenario centered around a fossil fuel poor Earth. In this topic guide, we will explain how the depletion of earth’s resources affects the planet, it’s nations, and it’s international affairs. We will direct the committee to answering the question of how, in this scenario, the world might react and otherwise be off-balanced, by the reintroduction of a fossil fuel source. Delegates, your task will be to protect the resource interests of your assigned nation to the best of your ability. We look forward to meeting you and investigating these fascinating topics together. We wish you the best of luck. Sincerely, Evelyn Robertson and Dan Mitropolsky
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TABLE OF CONTENTS The Nuclear Disaster of 2018 History of Energy Consumption Changes to UN/International Affairs Discovery of Reserves in Greenland (2053) A Brief History of Greenland to 2053
5 7 9 11 13
Structure of the Committee Datasheets about Member States
14 15
Footnotes
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The Nuclear Disaster of 2018! To the world today, the 2010s are historically significant as the end of the age of nuclear power. Within the span of nine years, the international community witnessed two of the greatest nuclear disasters to have struck mankind, and collectively implemented a permanent ban on nuclear proliferation. The process arguably began with the Fukushima disaster in early spring of 2011 (although some historians identify the inception of the worldwide anti-nuclear sentiment in earlier events such as the Chernobyl disaster, and some as early back as the second world war). Drenched and short-circuited by an unexpected tsunami of massive proportions, all three cores of the American-built Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant melted, releasing highly toxic radioactive emissions that continue to affect the health of both Japan’s ecology and population to this day. The disaster and its repercussions served as an impetus for the first nations- most notably Germany- that made the decision of permanently prohibiting the use of nuclear power. Still, most nations refused to follow suit, identify mismanagement, poor maintenance and improbably circumstance as the main factors behind the accident. However, it was difficult for anybody to ignore the consequences that these factors engendered: in 2017, a year before the Oi disaster, Japan had the highest cancer rates in the developed world. China was first among all nations, with much of the radiation its citizens suffered traceable to none other than the Fukushima disaster, according to the analysis of the East Asian Commission for the Study of Radiation Proliferation, which was formed in early 2019. After the disaster, Japan itself closed almost all of its operating nuclear
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power plants. However, due to enormous energy demands of the highly populous Kansai region (which includes the major metropolises of Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto), several units of the Oi Nuclear Power Plant remained in operation under highmaintenance. With political crisis once again striking the Middle East and a controversial Olympic games in Russia, it seemed for several years as though the international community had all but forgotten about the dangers of nuclear energy. On July 11th, 2018, a 7.1 Richter-scale earthquake struck the Fukui Prefecture of SouthCentral Japan. Earthquakes of high magnitude are not too uncommon in Japan, but together with the events that followed, the disaster is now an important moment in our collective history. The earthquake caused the initial breakdown, followed by implosion and meltdown of the core generators of both Units 3 and 4 of the Oi Nuclear Power Plant, located outside of the town of Oi in the Fukui prefecture. The total meltdown resulted in history’s largest and most pernicious nuclear disaster. For the next two weeks, the surrounding Kansai region was covered in a fatal blanket of pure radioactive release. In the first two days alone, the entire forest region in more than 100 km surrounding the power plant was obliterated. In a state of panic, countless countries assisted the Japanese government with evacuating tens of millions of people living in surrounding cities, as well as in the major cities of Osaka, Kyoto and Kobe. Millions were evacuated to the northern province of Hokkaido where the less winds brought in nuclear waste, and millions more were evacuated to Aomori and others to southern prefectures. Citizens of Korea (then South Korea)
UNSC 2054 6 living towards the southern tip of the peninsula were evacuated towards the capital, Seoul. Despite the efforts of the government and international community, hundreds of thousands could not be evacuated in time, and many who had been evacuated died as a result of their exposure to radiation. The INES introduced the new level of 8 in destructiveness to the International Nuclear Event Scale. The Oi Disaster is the only event to have ever received this rating. The disaster sparked immediate worldwide debate about the safety and benefits of nuclear power. Within a week of the accident, numerous European and Western nations (including France, Spain, England, Belgium, Italy, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) unilaterally put an end to nuclear proliferation for peaceful purposes within their own borders. Within the month, the issue became the primary issue of discussion in the United Nations. A coalition of Western nations that already unilaterally eliminated nuclear energy backed by oil-rich and natural-gas rich countries pushed for a global ban on nuclear energy. Their main argument rested in that scientific advancement and safety precautions could lower the risk of such disasters indefinitely, but the
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possible repercussions of a disaster of extremely low probability is still too much to risk. With a disaster that killed millions and whose effects reached throughout the globe, it was hard for any government to disagree. (1)
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History of Energy Consumption (Focus: oil and natural gas) Up Until 2052 From 2018 until the present, the world relied primarily on petroleum products (which include oil and natural gas), as well as a fair share of alternative, renewable energy sources. Although the proportion of renewable energy sources gradually increased throughout the period, the long-term mean proportion of renewable energy of total energy consumption has hovered around 25% in the developed world, and 5-10% for most of the developed world. Coal has also been a somewhat important source of energy in certain parts of the developed world, accounting for as much as 20% of energy consumption in India and parts of Latin America. The trade of natural gas was and continues to be controlled by the World Petroleum Agency (WPA), a coalition of petroleum product exporters and importers. The agency, created in the aftermath of the worldwide ban on nuclear energy, aims to ensure fair access to energy for all by regulating pricing, production and trade in ways competitive and advantageous to producers, but fair and accessible to consumers. Major petroleum-exporting countries (PECs) are determined based on their world share of petroleum production, and are sitting members on the WPA. The ten non-PEC permanent members (PMs) are the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, Japan, Korea (Republic of Korea, or South Korea, until unification in 2029), India, Brazil and Belgium (Belgium gained this status as pioneers of antinuclear proliferation in 2018; Russia is an honorary PM, because as a major petroleum-exporting country it has been a member continuously by those
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standards since the organization’s founding). Besides the ten permanent nations and the ten PEC’s, ten new nations cycle through the WPA every 4 years by random selection.
The charts and graphs above illustrate trends in oil production and consumption, as well as that of other energy sources, throughout the period 2018 – 2052. As a general trend, the consumption of oil rose in the initial period to make up for the elimination of nuclear energy as well as the success management of the WPR. Consumption of petroleum products as a percentage of total energy consumption has consistently remained above 70% as a global average. However, it was clear to most producers and to the WPR that petroleum reserves were critically low in the early 40s. However, the WPR as well as private and governmental exporters of oil did their best to conceal this information until 2045, when increasing pressure from activists and the media led to the declassification of official geographical survey data regarding oil and natural gases sources in current
UNSC 2054 8 exploitation. This brings us to the complete depletion of all known petroleum sources by January 2052. The depletion of oil and natural gas by 2052 was accurately predicted by several estimates, including some before the ban on nuclear energy in 2018. One National Geographic article in 2004 analyzed the contemporary producers of oil and available reserves, and estimated the end of the world oil supply by 2057. The popular non-fiction “Lights Off” published in 2031 by Kendra Athawayele became a global bestseller. The book predicted petroleum exhaustion by the late 40s, based on massive data analysis, geographical investigation and Athawayele’s own experience as Nigerian ambassador to the WPR before resigning from the organization which she accused of “perpetuating our unsustainable reliance on … the black gold, the magical elixir made from animal bones crushed by the weight of the earth for millions of years” . A growing concern about the future availability of petroleum products did lead to increases in sustainable energy usage, notably in Brazil (Brazil boasts the worlds highest usage of sustainable energy sources, averaging at 41% from 2025-2050). However, the reliable and stable prices of petroleum, as well as the established and continuously growing petroleum production industry ensured natural gas and oil’s permanence and enduring significance. (2)
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The Changes to International Affairs Between 2018 and 2052 Some have argued that the Great Deglobalization (a phrase first coined by Alfred Liszt, American author of the 2047 book of the same name) began as a result of the 2018 Oi Nuclear Disaster and the ensuing ban on travel into Japan and areas of East Asia. Liszt himself goes so far as to trace modern deglobalization to the 2008 global recession, citing examples such as the Buy American Provision of the American recovery and investment act of 2009, which imposed a general requirement that any public building or public works project funded by the stimulus package must use only iron, steel and other manufactured goods produced in the United States. Deglobalization is the process of diminishing interdependence and integration between nation states, and can refer to the economic, trade, social, technological, cultural and political arenas. The period from 1914 until the 1970s was a period of deglobalization among most developed nations as a result of the effects of the two World Wars. The Great Deglobalization refers to the period of deglobalization which took place from 2018 to the present (though Alfred Liszt would extend this period into 2000s). The phrase was originally used by commentators and historians to describe the economic deglobalization, but has since become a catch all term that some use to refer specifically to the isolationism of the period, although that is a distinct concept. The Great Deglobalization has been distinct from similar periods, such as the early 20th century, in a number of notable ways. First, rather than
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being primarily driven by economic or political crisis (though again Liszt may argue this point), the phenomenon was driven by a crisis of resources, namely increasing petroleum exhaustion, and international abandonment of nuclear energy. Also, as a result of new technologies, the Great Deglobalization by and large (though there are exceptions) has not played a large role in the cultural and technological arenas. The 21st century remains the age of the Internet, and the world’s culture and technology and ability to share information continue to increase and become more interconnected and interdependent. To return to the example of the United States, isolationism has been embodied by the movement known as Washington’s Vision. Founded in 2024, the organization takes it’s mission from former president General George Washington’s final address to the legislature, specifically the portion which advises America to avoid involvement in foreign affairs. Despite several scandals, the ideals of the organization gained traction in the American political arena, ultimately leading to the schism of the american Democratic Party in the 2030’s. Controversial President Allison Needham was strongly affiliated with Washington’s Vision, and pushed isolationist legislation through during her term from 2032 to 2036. Though later leaders have not been affiliated with the organization, the isolationism of the United States has continued to progress both in its legislation and its foreign policy. In 2041, the United States was the first of the developed nations of the world to begin
UNSC 2054 10 withholding its annual contributions to the budget of the United Nations. Many feel that this precipitated the collapse of the authority and functionality of the international body, but the United Nations did not discontinue most of its regular operations until 2044, when the European Union first meaningfully distanced themselves from the United Nations. The Great Deglobalization has progressively brought the world into a state of political disjointedness, most visibly in the now heavily ridiculed state of the United Nations. The deglobalization has been most strongly felt however in the changes to economic function. As travel and shipping (internationally and locally) have become prohibitively expensive as a result of the deficit in the global oil supply, communities even within national borders have become increasingly insular and where possible self-sufficient. This has been a particularly crushing blow to the Chinese, whose export based economy is no longer paying the bills. As of 2052, the WPA is the foremost organization of nation states in the global political arena. Most developed nations strive for selfsufficiency as much as possible. Some international alliances exist, and some have been formalized (see the reunification of South and North Korea).
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However, what international bonds do remain are generally based on geographic proximity or mutually beneficial resource exchange. Some bonds which existed in the early 21st century have now been strained or broken. For instance, the Hawaiian separatist movement continues to be politically relevant in the United States, and Tibetan independence has finally been achieved in 2050.
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Discovery of Reserves in Greenland (2053) Excerpts from A Geological, Geoecological and Geoseismic Survey of Greenland and Baffin Island, by Dr. Jorgen Pederson of Copenhagen University, translated from Danish Chapter 18, pg. 1055, Southern Qaasuitsup and Central-Western coastline
stretch into the sub-basin and coastal area, where more undiscovered-oil may still remain…” The chapter includes a preliminary approximation of major oil pocket locations and depths, as well as their approximate oil volumes.
“In conclusion, the Sigguk region of sub-southcentral Qaasuitsup is ecologically bland and minimal in diversity; poor shrubbery is in distribution with unnourished tundra flora and low grasses. Although unremarkable in ecology, the region is unique in its wealth of subterranean petroleum, suggesting Greenlands, or at least the specific regions, early-pre-Mesozoic constituency in a southern, likely sub-tropical landmass, perhaps central Pangea … “ “Previous geological investigation and private research suggested the existence of these geological reserves; in particular, the Sigguk region and greater Baffin bay coastal area was surveyed in 2009 and 2010 and small pockets of oil discovered by experimental drilling. NUNAOIL and Cairn Energy sponsored the private surveillance although the oil was never commercially exploited…”
Chapter 25, pg. 2866, Article circle and northern Park region
“Seismo-magnetic analysis reveals stores of oil that exceed greatly all previous estimations. Large wells of oil lay beneath the ground at depths of over 200 metres, and are dispersed throughout the Sigguk peninsula, although concentrated to the southwestern coastal region. Second round analysis was completed in December 2053 and the results are astonishing. The region may contain as much as five hundred million or more barrels of petroleum in the form of oil. It is likely that many oil-pockets
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“… bringing us to the topic of enormous oil reserves along the northern rim of Greenland. The harsh conditions and absent infrastructure of the northernmost regions of Greenland make the coast especially difficult for analysis that involves complicated machinery … but limited geoseismic surveillance reveals astonishing reserves of several trillion barrels of oil beneath the coast and surrounding sub-arctic coastal waters. The geographic obscurity and inaccessibility of the region would make commercial exploitation difficult, but the reserves are the last and largest remaining in the world, let alone Greenland… “The oil rich region lies directly south of the Northern tip of Baffin island, extending to the northernmost peninsulas for Northeast Greenland National Park Province. The volume of the reserves suggests that they in fact extend well into the Arctic ocean north of both Greenland and Baffin island…”
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A Brief History of Greenland to 2053 Controlled by Denmark for centuries, the island of Greenland has been a county of Denmark since 1953, and after 1979 an autonomous constituent country. Between 2008 and 2034, Greenland maintained control of its own internal affairs, controlled by the government of Denmark only in matters of foreign affairs and defense. Greenland received an annual grant from the Danish government, which in 2008 was 3.2 billion kroner, the Danish currency, but which gradually decreased until 2034, when Greenland achieved independence. On February 12th, 2034, the Greenlandic legislature held a referendum for Independence. The vote was 23,512 for independence to 7,811 against. Independence was declared by the legislature on February the 15th, and the constitution was officially adopted. On March 1st 2034 Greenland was admitted to the United Nations as an official United Nations member state, and the first Greenlandic ambassadors were dispatched to United Nations bodies. Greenland remains in a relationship with Denmark similar to the relationship among the members of the Commonwealth of Nations who are primarily former members of the British Empire. Though West Greenlandic, Kalaallisut, (one of the most populous of the family of Inuit languages, with c. 60,000 speakers) became the sole official language of Greenland in June of 2009, it was not until July of 2041 that Kalaallisut was instituted as the language of public education, subordinating Danish and English as supplemental subjects. While in the first three decades of the 21st century, Greenland enjoyed a great increase in its
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economic vivacity as a result of increased tourism and further exploitation of its natural resources, such as a discovery of rubies in 2007, the international turmoil generated by anxiety over energy resources has left Greenland increasingly dependent on its European brethren. (Technically Greenland is part of the continent of North America, though its relationship to the Danish and others associates it more strongly with Europe. Before the arrival of home rule in 1979, Greenland was briefly a member of the European Economic Council.) The isolationist trend which has become popular in the global community has left the Greenlandic export and tourism-based economy in a difficult place. While the nation’s small population (59,413; the nation is the least densely populated country in the world) is not unable to support itself through fishing and traditional agricultural means, emigration rates have been increasing, and the population’s dissatisfaction with its economic affairs has led to political tensions unusual for the small nation.
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Structure of the Committee Although this committee is nominally the United Nations Security Council, the United Nations has been largely powerless for more than a decade. While the committee does have the capacity to make decisions for the UN in its capacity as the Security Council, the reason why this meeting of the council has been called is much more similar in purpose and function to treaty conferences of old. The committee will serve as the venue for making alliances, breaking them, and, with luck and shrewd negotiating, possibly a treaty apportioning the find in Greenland, or a plan to resolve the global energy crisis.
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Datasheets about Member States with Brief Histories to 2053 United States of America Population
581,060,330
Economy
The economy of the United States has largely moved (with the notable exception of the grieved but still active tech and computer services sector) away from being a service economy. A strong government push for independence from imports has led to an increase in manufacturing (as much as is possible as a result of the energy crisis) and especially in agricultural production. Farming conglomerates have developed an unprecedented amount of power in recent years, and current political debates often criticize them as having unfairly monopolized the markets. On the other hand, eating local has become a predominant feature of the average American’s lifestyle. Increased shipping costs have made many staple grocery store products into luxury items.
Energy Summary
The Japanese Nuclear Disaster invigorated environmentalist activists early into the 21st century. As a result, and especially before the effects of oil depletion were realized, most legislation which attempted to open new sources of oil and gas were blocked. Unlike other nations, the United States was not able to ‘cushion their fall’ so to speak using their oil and natural gas reserves. The transition was much more abrupt and painful. However, now that the effects of oil depletion have effectively silenced environmental objectors, the United States is tapping into what remains of their oil and gas resources. Though this began at a steady rate in the 2030s, the United States still has an advantage over other nations who had not accidentally thought ahead.
Information
In 2041, the United States was the first of the developed nations of the world to begin withholding its annual contributions to the budget of the United Nations. The current administration, though not as fiercely isolationist as it was in the 2030’s, remains firmly committed to its own self-preservation.
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UNSC 2054 16 France Population
83,478,000
Economy
The economy of France has been struggling, particularly because the people had so resisted reclaiming areas of arable land. France, like most member states in the European Union, has become significantly more reliant on the Union since the Great Deglobalization. In particular, the agriculturally rich nations of Spain and Italy. However, France has taken advantage of its strategic position between its fellow states to take control of the trade between them. A small but growing industry has grown up around the taxation and management of goods which travel through France.
Summary
France, though supported by the joint reserves and apportions of oil managed by the EU, is a great supporter of alternative energies. Windmills now dot the countryside.
United Kingdom of Great Britain and North Ireland Population
73,545,200 The UK economy has suffered significantly, and in a greater degree than its fellow members of the European Union. An ongoing problem is the rise of food deserts, particularly in urbanized areas.
Germany and the Netherlands Population
105,768,300 After the unification of Germany and the Netherlands, both nations gained some measure of economic stability, despite the mild cultural clashes which have rocked the nation since.
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Korea
Population
82,344,500 Though some world leaders opposed to the global trend in isolationism worried that North Korea would descend further into despotism if left to itself, in reality the inaccessiblity of oil and fossil fuels led to the collapse of the North Korean government and the unification of North and South Korea, in a move that was one of the last great achievements of a dying United Nations.
Russian Federation
Population
132,330,678 The Russian population has experienced a major loss in the first half of the 21st century, as a result of vicious government rationing of both food and fossil fuels, leaving some to starve and others to freeze. The Russian birth rate is, while not the world’s lowest, low enough still that the rate of population growth is in the negatives. Though a certain force of will keeps the Russian economy moving, subsistence is the best most of the population can look forward to.
Japan
Population
120,890,355 The Japanese population has suffered an overall deficit in the last fifty years (despite government sponsored fertility propaganda). The strain of supporting an increasingly aged non-working population has brought the once vibrant and inventive manufacturing sector to its knees. In addition, their economy’s previous reliance on exports and imports has made reinventing the Japanese economic model painful and a largely unsuccessful project.
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UNSC 2054 18 Canada
Population
62,364,449 Though in the early days of the US isolationist movement, Canada was as much included in the general American rejection of the outside world as anyone else, by the 2040s, in a stark contrast to American hostility towards the UN, Canada and the United States developed an increasingly close alliance. The idea of a self-reliant, economically independent United North America has become more and more popular in the last decade, despite the depletion of even the remaining North American fossil fuels.
Australia
Population
47,158,000 Though Australia maintains economic contact with nearby nations such as Indonesia and particularly New Zealand, the Australian economy plays no large part in the world stage. Although the nation has made attempts at reverting to the rougher survivalist lifestyle employed by their ancestors, the difficulties involved in transportation have made the separate urban areas of Australia almost nations unto themselves. Drought has been a danger to the nation in ways it has not been in a century.
Brazil
Population
296,488,000 The sole representative of South America on this committee, Brazil’s wealth of natural resources has allowed it to enjoy more affluence relative to former glory than many other members of the committee. Also, Brazil’s proximity to and influence over Venezuela have mitigated the consequences of the energy crisis on the nation.
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India
Population
2,106,768,000 While India’s outsourced economy was seriously impacted by changes in global attitudes, the agrarian sector was more prepared than many other nations to weather the storm. Also, continued Indian population growth has allowed the country to maintain a stable economy.
Greenland
Population
59,413 [See a Brief History of Greenland]
Denmark
Population
7,489,000 Denmark’s connection to Greenland has earned its place at this table. The economic circumstances have not been kind to the small country, although they are by far not the worst off, even among the European Union.
People’s Republic of China Population
2,008,630,000 The PRC is one of a sector of nations who worked against the tide of isolationism, continually working to maintain their export trade. The inevitable economic melee that resulted after these efforts saw minimal returns left the nation in shambles. In this period, Tibet succeeded in separating from the nation. More importantly, though capitalistic attitudes and laws had made headway in the early years of the 21st century, deglobalization saw a rebirth of communism in the country. Some analysts believe that this return to communism is all that has kept the nation from starving to death, while others criticize its corruptions and excesses.
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NOTES
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1.
http://world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Fukushima-Accident-2011/#.Uh55aGBOHlc
2.
Tim Appenzeller (June 2004). "The End of Cheap Oil". National Geographic.
3.
A Geological, Geoecological and Geoseismic Survey of Greenland and Baffin Island, by Dr. Jorgen Pederson of Copenhagen University, translated from Danish