WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff Manager of Sustainable Transportation, Lauren Isaac, believes AVs have the potential to change all aspects of mobility and disrupt public and private transport as we know it. In her paper Driving towards driverless: a guide for government agencies she argues that government at all levels must establish policies, laws and regulations to account for this disruptive technology. ‘Of utmost importance is finding a balance between guarding public safety while regulating insurance/liability and simultaneously encouraging investment in research and development of driverless vehicles and their implementation and integration into our transportation system.’ Ms Isaac says it is the government action – now and in the future – that will determine how AVs are integrated into society and if the impacts are largely positive or negative. Vehicle standards, regulation, pricing, access to transport networks and other policy influencers will sit alongside new mobility models, known collectively as ‘mobility as a service’, that will offer our society a wide range of outcomes.
Industry observers describe our brave new AV world as being either a nightmare or utopia. Which scenario plays out will depend on the potential future we see and the amount of vehicle sharing we, as future road users, are prepared to accept. For example, close to full automation and ride sharing would equal utopia, while the opposite would result in a ‘driverless nightmare’ situation.
100%
% of AV Penetration in Society
BE PREPARED – MANAGING THE IMPACT OF DRIVERLESS VEHICLES
Public transit is mostly AV
No passenger services switch to AV Freight AVs are earliest adopters
Lauren’s research paints a picture of a very fast ramp-up of automated services. This could result in a rapid change to our transport network within the next two decades and very real issues to be considered at all levels of government and across many industry sectors (Figure 1).
Roads are designed for manual cars
Public transit adopts AV for BRT and first/last mile solutions Auto dealers selling AVs (mainstream)
AVs on roads for testing purposes only Mobility providers introduce AV TODAY
2020
2035
2040
TIMELINE Note: “Manual cars” refers to vehicles that require drivers (today’s cars).
Figure 1
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