WESTERN POLITICAL ROUND-UP

Prospectus Associates

Manitoba

The Progressive Conservative government led by Premier Heather Stefanson has now entered the final year of its mandate, with an election slated for fall 2023.

Current polling shows the opposition New Democrats, led by Wab Kinew, as the preferred choice for Manitoba voters. Suburban Winnipeg seats are necessary for the PCs to win. A September 2022 poll from Probe Research notes that province-wide, 44 per cent would cast ballots for an NDP candidate in their constituency, with 37 per cent selecting the PCs.

In the city of Winnipeg, which is crucial if the PCs are to maintain government, the NDP lead over the PCs is a commanding one: 52 per cent of Winnipegers would vote for the NDP, while 25 per cent would choose the Progressive Conservatives.

Stefanson became Premier just over a year ago following the resignation of Brian Pallister. Long-time MLA and minister Kelvin Goertzen filled in as Premier and interim leader while the race to succeed Pallister was occurring. The PCs won a commanding victory in 2016, after 17 years of NDP dominance in the province, and secured another substantial majority in the 2019 general election.

Premier Stefanson currently has the lowest approval rating of all Premiers, with 22 per cent of Manitobans signalling approval, according to research published in September by the Angus Reid Institute.

On November 15, Manitoba’s new Lieutenant-Governor, the Honourable Anita Neville, delivered the 2022 Speech from the Throne, which will be the last during this mandate of the PC government led by Premier Heather Stefanson.

The overarching priorities articulated in the speech include: fighting violent crime, strengthening healthcare, growing the economy and helping Manitobans. The speech additionally noted these specific goals:

• helping make communities safer;

• helping families make ends meet;

• strengthening health care and reducing surgical and diagnostic backlogs;

• helping make Manitoba more competitive;

• helping protect the environment, climate and parks;

• helping build stronger communities; and

• advancing reconciliation.

Saskatchewan

This province’s political climate is much more favourable to the current government than is the case for its counterparts in Manitoba. Premier Scott Moe and his Saskatchewan Party colleagues were re-elected in 2020, and continue to enjoy comfortably high polling, which is uncommon for a political party that has been in power for 15 years.

Premier Moe has the highest approval rating of all Canadian premiers, with the Angus Reid Institute noting an approval rating of 57 per cent in September, a six-point jump from a survey conducted in June.

The New Democratic Party selected Carla Beck as its new leader last summer. Beck, a sitting MLA, succeeded Ryan Meili, who stepped down as leader and subsequently as an MLA. A by-election to replace Meili kept the seat in the NDP column, with Nathaniel Teed emerging victorious.

The government recently delivered its 2022 Speech from the Throne, which outlined the government’s upcoming priorities.

On the heels of impressive economic and population growth, the government is making moves meant to assert its jurisdiction, in response to clashes with the federal government, especially in relation to natural resources development. Public safety was also a featured theme in their resent address, and of particular note is the province’s plan to exit the retail liquor market.

Significant undertakings include:

• introducing The Saskatchewan First Act, to clearly define and defend Saskatchewan’s exclusive jurisdiction over natural resources and its economic future within the Canadian Constitution;

• amending the province’s Constitution by amending The Saskatchewan Act to state that Saskatchewan continues to retain exclusive jurisdiction over its own natural resources;

• continuing to press for greater provincial control over immigration, as has long been guaranteed to Quebec; and

• introducing legislation enabling Saskatchewan to collect its own corporate income tax.

Alberta

Danielle Smith recently won the leadership of the United Conservative Party (UCP) and thus became Premier succeeding Jason Kenney, who stepped down as a result of his lacklustre result in the party’s leadership review this past spring.

Smith had previously led the Alberta Wildrose Party, prior to joining the Progressive Conservative government of then-Premier Jim Prentice. When Smith failed to win a PC nomination in order to run in the 2015 election, many wrongly predicted the end of her political career, let alone surpassing her previous success by becoming Premier.

Smith has indicated that a variety of transformational changes will be implemented between now and the election which is slated for spring 2023. One of the most widely discussed planks of her leadership campaign includes the promise of an Alberta Sovereignty Act, which Smith has described as being necessary to assert provincial jurisdiction in areas where the province believes that the federal government has been hostile to its interests.

Premier Smith won a by-election on November 8 in the riding of Brooks-Medicine Hat, and personally introduced this act within weeks of taking her seat. In her mandate letter to Justice Minister Tyler Shandro, Smith wrote in no uncertain terms: “We must proactively protect Albertans from continued federal government overreach, including hostile economic policies that landlock our provincial resources, that chase billions in investment and thousands of jobs from our province, and that are detrimental to the short-term and long-term prosperity of Albertans.”

Shandro is also tasked with working with his colleague, Mike Ellis, Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Services, to launch an Alberta Police Service (APS), to replace the RCMP where applicable.

The Premier also dismissed Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Chief Medical Officer of Health, replacing her on an interim basis with Dr. Marc Joffe, an executive with Alberta Health Services (AHS) who will perform both roles concurrently.

British Columbia

Premier John Horgan officially retired on November 18, when David Eby was sworn into the role. The ceremony was held at the Musqueam Community Centre in Vancouver, and a cabinet shuffle is set to occur on December 7 in Victoria. The event marked the first-ever swearing-in hosted by a First Nation in British Columbia. Horgan announced his retirement earlier this year, though he remained at the helm as his governing New Democratic Party undertook a leadership convention to replace him. He cited his health as a determining factor, having recently battled with cancer, and despite his positive outcome, his stamina did not permit him to continue in the role. Horgan was elected with a minority government in 2017, held together by a cooperation agreement with the Green Party, but won an outright majority during the provincial election of 2020.

What was considered a competitive race between Eby and Anjali Appadurai morphed into a coronation once the latter candidate was disqualified, due to a conclusion by the party’s Chief Electoral Officer that Appadurai’s campaign had violated the rules of the race.

Eby previously served in Horgan’s cabinet and has indicated that he will ensure the province takes a more assertive role in social issues surrounding Vancouver’s lower east side. He had considered seeking the NDP leadership in 2014, but decided to back Horgan.

In late November, Finance Minister Selina Robinson delivered an economic update indicating the province is on track to have a $5.7 billion budget surplus, an astonishing turn-around from the beginning of the fiscal year when a deficit of $5.5 billion was predicted.

Since becoming Premier, Eby has made various policy announcements related to housing, cost-of-living pressures, crime response and mental health and addictions.

In the next provincial election, not expected until 2024, Eby will square off against Liberal Leader Kevin Falcon. Interestingly, the party name is expected to change. 80 per cent of party voted recently to change from “Liberal” to “BC United.” This will still need to be approved at a party convention that will occur in 2023.

Falcon was an MLA before and served in the cabinet of then-Premier Christy Clark. Shortly after winning the leadership, he won a by-election and returned to the Legislative Assembly.

In British Columbia, the Liberal Party is not formally affiliated with the federal Liberal Party, and its members include federal Liberals, federal Conservatives and others.