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BRIAN FOLEY formed Brian Foley Associates (BRiFO) in 2006 to assist aerospace firms and investors with strategic research. In addition to his work as Market Intelligence Editor, AvBuyer, he is a regular contributor for Forbes.com and his views are published in the media worldwide. Brian serves the Transportation Research Board as a member of the Business Aviation, helicopter, commercial airline and UAV system subcommittees, and he previously served on the Board of a Wall Street financial firm. Before starting his consultancy business, Brian was marketing director at Dassault Falcon Jet for 20 years, and started his career at Boeing. He is an instrument-rated private pilot. https://www.linkedin.com/in/brifo/
Its likelihood is further strengthened by a bevy of new aircraft models coming to market which helps stimulate sales. There are seven recent or upcoming entrants from Gulfstream and Dassault Falcon Jet alone, with others sure to follow.
Epilog
Despite a lot of industry blowback, I maintain a deep conviction that 900 deliveries are in sight within the next two to three years. Frankly, the only impediment to this happening sooner is the reluctance of manufacturers to increase production too soon. Having been financially burned with unsold whitetails in the past, they’ll instead wait to see whether increased sales volume maintains its momentum for a couple of more quarters before making any commitments. Even then, production doesn’t
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increase with the flip of a switch. It will take time to ramp up once a decision is made, and manufacturers are already mentioning supply chain challenges at their current levels of production. Compounding this will be a lack of skilled employees to support an increase. Most OEMs dismissed employees early in the pandemic to match their limited production to headcount. Many of those workers left for other, more predictable industries, never to return. Finally, a guaranteed follow-up question after sharing these thoughts with others relates to whether the industry will return to the lofty 1,300unit level of 2008. While that’s not currently envisioned in my ten-year forecast, due to an inevitable economic dip somewhere along the way, I would advise others to never say never. MI www.brifo.com
“To ramp up to 900 units over the course of 2023-2024 does not seem like much of a stretch.”
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AVBUYER MAGAZINE Vol 25 Issue 12 2021
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