economics of elecTric Vehicles for Passenger TransPorTaTion

a. Breakdown of investment needs (US$3,817 million or 0.85% of GDP) b. Investment needs potentially covered by carbon financing

Private incremental vehicle cost 4Ws

Public charging infrastructure 3Ws and 4Ws

Public charging infrastructure e-bus

Public incremental vehicle cost e-bus

Private charging infrastructure

Private incremental vehicle cost 2Ws and 3Ws

Source: World Bank.

Note: Data in this figure represent the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario minus the 30×30 scenario (averages over fleet additions). The BAU scenario assumes that no policy target will be imposed for electric vehicles and that vehicle purchase decisions will continue to reflect historical trends. The 30×30 scenario assumes that sales of electric cars and buses will reach 30 percent, and of two- and three-wheelers, 70 percent, by 2030. 2W = two-wheeler; 3W = three-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; EV = electric vehicle; GDP

Source: World Bank.

Note: Data in this table represent the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario minus the named scenario (averages over fleet additions). The BAU scenario assumes that no policy target will be imposed for electric vehicles and that vehicle purchase decisions will continue to reflect historical trends. The 30×30 scenario assumes that sales of electric cars and buses will reach 30 percent, and of two- and three-wheelers, 70 percent, by 2030. The green grid scenario assumes that countries achieve certain region-specific targets for acceleration of renewable energy, as defined by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA 2020). The scarce minerals scenario assumes that battery cost will decline by approximately 7 percent annually. The fuel efficiency scenario assumes that the rate of improvement of fuel efficiency for the internal combustion engine fleet will double from 15 percent to 30 percent. The efficient bus scenario assumes a capital cost reduction of 35 percent in the procurement of buses as well as optimized bus routes to increase the annual mileage of electric buses. The taxi fleet scenario assumes that the lifetime mileage of intensively used commercial vehicles will increase by four times in each country, that public investment in charging infrastructure will double the fast charger density for cars, and that the maintenance cost for cars will be doubled (assuming two lifetime battery replacements). Results have been normalized by new vehicles entering the market in 2030. The “fiscal wedge” comprises net taxes and subsidies. Red and parentheses indicate negative value. 2W = two-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; CO2 = carbon dioxide; EV = electric vehicle; NOx = nitrogen oxides; PM10 = particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter; SOx = sulfur oxides; US$/Mpaxvkm = US dollars per million passenger vehicle-kilometers; n.a.= not applicable.

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Note: Red and parentheses indicates negative value. 2W = two-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; CO2 = carbon dioxide; EV = electric vehicle; g = gram; GNI pc = gross national income per capita; ICE = internal combustion engine; kWh = kilowatt-hour; km = kilometer; MJ = megajoule; NOx = nitrogen oxides; paxvkm = passenger vehicle-kilometer; PM10 = particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter; sulfur oxides.

1. Generation mix comes from a combination of US EIA international database and World Bank Group data.

2. Data from the Global Electric Vehicle Policy Database.

3. Power train mix comes from country-specific sources. Additional data on EVs come from separate data provided by the World Bank. Otherwise, if data are still missing, we assume 100 percent internal combustion engine vehicles and a 50:50 split for gasoline and diesel for cars, 100 percent gasoline for two-wheelers and 100 percent diesel for buses. For three-wheelers, the shares are used from India data because it is one of the largest markets for three-wheelers in the world.

4. From the United Nations Environment Programme web page, “Electric mobility projects in Asia and the Pacific,” https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/transport/what-we-do/electric-mobility/electric -mobility-projects-asia-and-pacific

5. Information from the World Bank.

Cheung, Jerman. 2021. “Accelerating E-mobility in Vietnam.” News release, March 2, 2021. https:// www.arup.com/news-and-events/accelerating-e-mobility-in-vietnam

IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). 2020. Global Renewables Outlook: Energy Transformation 2050. Masdar City: IRENA.

McKerracher, Colin. 2021. “Hyperdrive Daily: The EV Revolution Rides on Two Wheels.” Bloomberg, April 20, 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-04-20/hyperdrive-daily-the -ev-revolution-rides-on-two-wheels.

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