economics of elecTric Vehicles for Passenger TransPorTaTion

a. Breakdown of investment needs (US$3.2 million or 0.03% of GDP) b. Investment needs potentially covered by carbon financing

4Ws

Public charging infrastructure 3Ws and 4Ws charging infrastructure e-bus incremental vehicle cost e-bus

Source: World Bank.

Note: Data in this figure represent the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario minus the 30×30 scenario (averages over fleet additions). The BAU scenario assumes that no policy target will be imposed for electric vehicles and that vehicle purchase decisions will continue to reflect historical trends. The 30×30 scenario assumes that sales of electric cars and buses will reach 30 percent, and of two- and three-wheelers, 70 percent, by 2030. 2W = two-wheeler; 3W = three-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; EV = electric vehicle; GDP = gross domestic product.

Source: World Bank.

Note: Data in this table represent the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario minus the named scenario (averages over fleet additions). The BAU scenario assumes that no policy target will be imposed for electric vehicles and that vehicle purchase decisions will continue to reflect historical trends. The 30×30 scenario assumes that sales of electric cars and buses will reach 30 percent, and of two- and three-wheelers, 70 percent, by 2030. The green grid scenario assumes that countries achieve certain region-specific targets for acceleration of renewable energy, as defined by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA 2020). The scarce minerals scenario assumes that battery cost will decline by approximately 7 percent annually. The fuel efficiency scenario assumes that the rate of improvement of fuel efficiency for the internal combustion engine fleet will double from 15 percent to 30 percent. The efficient bus scenario assumes a capital cost reduction of 35 percent in the procurement of buses as well as optimized bus routes to increase the annual mileage of electric buses. The taxi fleet scenario assumes that the lifetime mileage of intensively used commercial vehicles will increase by four times in each country, that public investment in charging infrastructure will double the fast charger density for cars, and that the maintenance cost for cars will be doubled (assuming two lifetime battery replacements). Results have been normalized by new vehicles entering the market in 2030. The “fiscal wedge” comprises net taxes and subsidies. Red and parentheses indicate negative value. 2W = two-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; CO2 = carbon dioxide; EV = electric vehicle; NOx = nitrogen oxides; PM10 = particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter; SOx = sulfur oxides; US$/Mpaxvkm = US dollars per million passenger vehicle-kilometers; n.a.= not applicable.

Overall

—of

Other parameters Parameter Value

Net tax difference on EV 4W (%)

Net tax difference on EV 2W (%)

Net tax difference on e-bus (%)

—of which

—of which vehicle taxes/subsidies

—of which gasoline taxes/subsidies

—of which diesel taxes/subsidies

—of which electricity taxes/subsidies

Implicit carbon price (US$/ton)

—of which for

—of

—of

Pollution

—of

—of

Source: World Bank.

Note: Red and parentheses indicates negative value. 2W = two-wheeler; 4W = four-wheeler; CO2 = carbon dioxide; EV = electric vehicle; g = gram; GNI pc = gross national income per capita; ICE = internal combustion engine; kWh = kilowatt-hour; km = kilometer; MJ = megajoule; NOx = nitrogen oxides; paxvkm = passenger vehicle-kilometer; PM10 = particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter; SOx = sulfur oxides.

1. Data from US Energy Information Administration international database and World Bank.

2. “Order of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan of June 25, 2020, No. 393.” https://cis-legislation.com/document.fwx?rgn=126129

References

Development Asia. 2019. “Insight: How Electric Vehicles Can Make Tajikistan Emissions-Free.” Insight, December 12, 2019. https://development.asia/insight/how-electric-vehicles-can-make -tajikistan-emissions-free

Grütter, Jürg M., and Ki-Joon Kim. 2019. “E-Mobility Options for ADB Developing Member Countries.” ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series 60, Asian Development Bank, Manila. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS190075-2

IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). 2020. Global Renewables Outlook: Energy Transformation 2050. Masdar City: IRENA.

Leeder, David, Alok Jain, Ian Jennings, Xiaolu Wang, and Kjetil Tvedt. 2021. “Going Electric: A Pathway to Zero-Emission Buses.” Policy paper, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London.

OICA (Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d’Automobiles [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers]). 2020. “Global Sales Statistics, 2019–2021.” OICA, Paris. https://www.oica.net/global-sales-statistics-2019-2021/.

UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe). 2017. Tajikistan: Environmental Performance Reviews; Third Review. Environmental Performance Reviews Series 45. New York and Geneva: United Nations. https://unece.org/environment-policy/publications/3rd -environmental-performance-review-tajikistan