2.1 Average Cereal Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other World Regions, 1961–2020

Average cereal yields are significantly low in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Section 2. Food System Opportunities in a Turbulent Time

2.1 MOTIVATION

Achieving food security in Sub-Saharan Africa requires abundant, affordable, and nutritious food for the growing population. By 2050, the population of the region is expected to double, reaching 2.2 billion. This implies that nearly one in four people in the world will be living in SubSaharan Africa in 2050. The growing population, urbanization, and rising incomes experienced in the continent are driving the demand for food in the region, which continues to grow at a fast pace—and has the potential to open substantive market and job opportunities.22 For instance, Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand for cereals is projected to triple between 2010 and 205023 and demand for meat to quadruple.24

Sub-Saharan Africa’s production of crops and livestock must increase sustainably if the region is to meet the growing demand for food. Over the past decades, agricultural growth in the region has mainly come from the expansion of land and depletion of natural resources rather than increases in total factor productivity (TFP).25 Although technology and efficiency gains have been the main drivers of agricultural growth in all developing regions, their contribution to growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been limited.26 Furthermore, while crop yields have increased in Africa, they still trail significantly those of the rest of the world (figure 2.1).27 For instance, the average yield of cereals in Africa doubled over the past half century—surging from 0.81 ton per hectare (t/ha) in 1961 to 1.65 t/ha in 2020—while the average yield of cereals in the world has tripled over the same time period—from 1.35 t/ha in 1961 to 4.07 t/ha in 2020.28 The average cereal 7 yield across the continent in 2020 was half that of India (3.28 t/ha), about one-fourth that of China (6.30 t/ha),

FIGURE 2.1: Average Cereal Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other World Regions, 1961–2020 10 9 8 7 Tons per hectare 4 5 6 3 2 1 0 6 1 6 4 6 7 7 0 7 3 6 7 9 8 2 8 5 8 8 9 1 9 4 9 7 0 0 0 3 0 6 0 9 1 2 1 5 1 8 22 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Africa Asia USA India World Source: FAOSTAT 2022 database, Food and Agriculture Organization, http://www.fao.org/faostat/.

22 These trends have induced a dietary shift to agricultural products that are richer in proteins (meat and dairy, eggs, and pulses), nutrients (fruits and vegetables), and calories (oils and fats and sugars). They also further increase the demand for processed, packaged, and prepared foods (Cockx, Colen, and De Weerdt 2018). 23 van Ittersum et al. (2016). 24 CGIAR (2022). 25 Agricultural growth in the extensive margin is not sustainable as it has negative implications for the environmental footprint and the slower release of labor to nonfarm sectors of economic activity. 26 TFP grew at an annual average rate of 0.2 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa during 2000–19, compared to 1.8 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2.5 percent in East Asia, 2.4 percent in South Asia, and 1.5 percent in the world (USDA 2022). 27 Tian and Yu (2019). 28 In other words, average crop yields in the region have failed to converge to those of most of the other regions across the world. The gap in cereal yields between Africa and the rest of the world has widened: the average yield of cereals in Africa has declined from 60 percent of the world average in 1961 to 40 percent in 2020.