2.5 Building Climate Resilient Food Systems

agriculture. 103 Another proven effective area of public investment to strengthen resilience to climate change is the development of regional early warning information systems (on weather or pests, for instance) and digital climate advisory services. Such tools help farmers adapt and build resilience to weather variability and climate change by receiving timely and site-specific agronomic recommendations. They enable beneficiaries to better manage risks and reduce uncertainties that often constrain decision-making.

Beyond fostering sustainable productivity despite more extreme weather, investing in agricultural climate change adaptation increasingly matters for peace and stability. In a drier environment that does not allow for sedentary livestock, pastoralist move their herds according to the availability of water and pasture. Tensions around natural resource availability are a major cause of conflict in Sub-Saharan African pastoralists communities. Examples of successful interventions addressing both livestock development and natural resource management exist and can be built upon, as witnessed by a pilot conducted in the disputed Abyei area of South Sudan.104 In Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal, the Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support Project (PRAPS) protects pastoral systems by improving resource management and animal health, facilitating access to markets, diversifying sources of income for pastoral households, and managing conflicts.

Securing long-term per capita food production growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming increasingly harder with more frequent weather-induced setbacks. As a result of climate change, farming systems, food production, and import dependency can be expected to change significantly. Without further action, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to surpass Asia as the most food insecure region in the world, with 40-50 percent of people being undernourished by 2080. Adapting Africa’s food system to climate change is not a choice but an imperative. Food security deteriorates by 5-20 percent with each flood or drought, while the region experiences a 1.4 percent reduction in food calories per year from key food security crops.a To help food systems adapt, adequate investments and policies are needed in the agriculture sector to raise productivity, improve resilience, and boost the efficiency of resource utilization. Financing climate change adaptation in agriculture and food systems will be more cost-effective than financing increasingly frequent and severe crisis response, disaster relief, and recovery pathways. Estimates suggest that the future cost of climate inaction may be as high as US$201 billion, while the cost of adaptation (for example, public investment in research and development, water, infrastructure, sustainable land management, and climate information) is only US$15.5 billion. Scaling up climate-smart agriculture is a key lever for sustainable growth and fostering resilience. The leading adaptation policies for food systems are well defined on technical grounds, build on evidence, and are cost-effective.b Cost-effectiveness estimates of priority public sector investments are presented in figure B2.5.1.c They comprise public policy solutions, food value chain and livelihood solutions, and on-farm and productive landscapes solutions.

BOX 2.5: Building Climate Resilient Food Systems

103 Box 2.5 highlights the cost-effectiveness of climate adaptation policies in agriculture. 104 Eliste et al. (2022).