share of foreigners in those occupations, 2018 to 2019

Mobility-Related iM plications of co V id -19 fo R Recei V ing c ount R ies 95

positive correlation between the share of foreigners in an occupation and the share of European countries that reported labor shortages in that occupation, with the most extreme shortage being of nursing professionals (figure 3.2).

Among the high-skill professions with Europe’s largest labor shortages (including software developers, civil engineers, and systems analysts), foreigners make up 12–19 percent of the workforce. In the low-skill professions with reported shortages, foreigners account for even larger shares—for example, over a quarter of cooks and waiters.

As for the medical professions, 15 percent of the nursing professionals in European countries in 2018 were foreign-born,1 and 18 of the 30 European countries or regions reported having shortages of nursing professionals in the second half of 2019 (figure 3.2). Similarly, in 2018, more than 6 percent of all health care professionals (excluding nurses) and health associate professionals across eight northern Mediterranean EU countries were foreigners, with more than half of those being third-country nationals (figure 3.1). Overall, the shortage of health workers in the EU, an estimated 1.6 million in 2013, is projected to reach 4.1 million by 2030 (0.6 million physicians, 2.3 million nurses, and 1.3 million other health professionals) (Michel and Ecarnot 2020).

Figure 3.2 Share of European countries with labor shortages, by occupation, and share of foreigners in those occupations, 2018 to 2019

Share of countries with a shortage in occupation 65

60

55

50 Nursing professional

45

40 Doctors (general)

35

30

Nursing associate professional

25

10 15 20 Health care assistant

25

Share of foreigners in occupation Low-skill occupations High-skill occupations Health care occupations 30

Sources: european union labour force survey (eu-lfs) 2018 data, eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat); ec 2020. Note: the x-axis is the 2018 share of foreigners in each occupation in the eu-28 (pre-brexit) countries plus iceland, norway, and switzerland, according to the eu-lfs. shares are calculated using survey weights. the y-axis is the share of eu-28 countries (plus norway and switzerland but excluding austria and france, which did not submit data) that reported having a shortage in each occupation in the second half of 2019, according to ec (2020). outliers across all occupations in the eu-lfs with a share of foreigners more than three standard deviations from the mean are excluded.

96 b U ilding resilient migr A tion s Y stems in t H e mediterr A ne A n region

Migrants are also an essential source of labor for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries,2 where they account for large shares of the population but are allowed entry only on a temporary basis and for a specific and prearranged job with an employer. As a result, GCC countries have some of the world’s highest shares of foreign labor in the workforce—ranging from 79 to 96 percent of the employed population depending on the country (De Bel-Air 2017, 2018a, 2018b, 2018c, 2019a, 2019b).3

In Saudi Arabia, for instance, migrants account for three-quarters of the workforce, with almost two-thirds employed in the private sector, one-third working as domestic workers, and very few working in the public sector. Approximately 2.2 million workers in Saudi Arabia are employed in construction, representing a vital source of labor without which the sector would face severe challenges (World Bank 2020). Migrants’ contributions in the construction sector have also been crucial to support the development of infrastructure needed for megaprojects in other GCC countries, such as the Expo 2020 in the United Arab Emirates and FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022™ (ILO 2017).

Pandemic’s impact on the agriculture sector

Given the essential role of foreigners in the agricultural labor forces of many Mediterranean countries, the COVID-19–related mobility restrictions could affect the food supply chain. In Turkey, for example, 20 percent of the 552,000 agricultural workers are refugees (3RP 2020). In Italy, approximately 27 percent of the formal agricultural workforce, or 370,000 workers, are foreigners (box 3.1). France and Spain also rely on foreign agricultural workers, employing approximately 276,000 and 150,000 seasonal workers per year, respectively (EPRS 2021).

Concerns about shortages of migrant workers emerged during Europe’s planting and harvesting seasons in 2020, particularly for labor-intensive crops, such as tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, strawberries, cherries, potatoes, and asparagus. In April 2020, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned that COVID-19–related labor shortages could disrupt global food production, processing, and distribution (FAO 2020). European farmers’ unions estimated a shortfall of about 1 million seasonal agricultural workers in the first half of 2020: 200,000 in France, 300,000 in Germany, 370,000 in Italy, and a 40 percent drop in the agricultural workforce in Spain, where most seasonal workers come from Morocco and Tunisia (Mitaritonna and Ragot 2020).

Between January 2020 and June 2021, global food prices rose by 40 percent owing to pandemic-related uncertainty, macroeconomic conditions, and disrupted supply chains. The World Food Programme estimated that because of the COVID-19 pandemic, 272 million people were already in, or were at risk of, acute food insecurity (WFP 2020; World Bank 2021).