Illustrative Case Study on How to Avoid Spurious Interpretations

468 | Revisiting Targeting in Social Assistance

then moves to pedagogy that leads from simple to more complex measures and from looking at only one or two aspects of a program to developing a more well-rounded picture. The main text should be readable by a focused layperson, and the mathematical definitions and formulae are provided in annex 7A.

Illustrative Case Study on How to Avoid Spurious Interpretations

An illustrative case study can help in understanding how misguided conclusions can often result from applying unsuitable measures or data to studying the performance of a method. The case study was created to demonstrate several common missteps in conducting assessments, including applying different thresholds for eligibility in the analysis than used by the program; using binary measurements; not using the entire population distribution to assess performance; not taking into account process evaluations highlighting implementation issues that could affect targeting outcomes; and the inherent limitations of household surveys, such as sampling and the date of the survey.

Brazil’s Bolsa Escola, a conditional cash transfer program, was created in 2001, with intended nationwide coverage of 5.9 million families, covering 10.7 million children ages 7–14 years.2 The program provided a monthly transfer of R$15 (US$6) per child for up to three children per family, conditional on 90 percent monthly school attendance to families with per capita income less than R$90 (US$36). In 2004, the Bolsa Escola program was merged with three other programs to create the Bolsa Familia program. The Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) program, which was launched in 1996, was intended to provide monthly cash benefits to all the elderly ages 65 and older and the disabled, in amounts equivalent to the minimum wage. The transfers were unconditional and made independently of contributions to the social security system. Both programs used means testing as the method to determine eligibility, and their overall rules, guidelines, and financing were established by the federal government. However, the municipalities played a very important role in implementation, outreach, intake, registration, and onboarding.

The Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD)3 of 2004 was the first representative household survey that collected information on participation in the Bolsa Escola and BPC programs. The survey discussed here was selected to illustrate the importance of understanding and applying similar eligibility criteria, using a full population distribution in the analysis, and understanding the importance of implementation issues prior to conducting performance assessments.